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What a beautiful sight to behold as we look upon a full weekend of college football. It really is Christmas in September for degens like me. Last week we started off the year hot by nailing our BANGER with UConn easily going under their Team Total as Fresno spotted them the goose 🥚. We did lose our 2 unit Nebraska bet but by nailing the BANGER we hit week 1 up a respectable juice adjusted 1.84 units. This weeks picks are a little heavy on O/Us as I try to get a feel out for teams.
Please tune in every Wednesday this college football season as I will be dropping my gambling LOCKS for the upcoming week of college football. Disclaimer - I am a terrible gambler and these picks should probably be faded. Also, I will be measuring 1 unit as 5% of my total bankroll, anything over 5 units will be considered a BANGER.
Pick #1 (4 Units) - Tennessee -21.5 (1H)(-115) vs Bowling Green
I expect Josh Huepel and Tennessee to get off to fast start to the season and Bowling Green comes to town. This is more of a bet against Bowling Green than it is in favor of Tennessee. Bowling Green is one of the absolute worst teams in College football at the moment. They are in the same tier and UConn and New Mexico State currently, they went 0-6 in their MAC schedule last year and their closest game they still lost by 25 points😳. Their O-Line will have a couple Freshman starting and their receivers are all new and inexperienced. QB play was abysmal as well, their starter is returning but he might be replaced by one of Syracuse's backups from last year who I assume sucks as well. Their defense was terrible against the run, giving up 310 yards per game. This is the debut for Josh Huepel at Tennessee as he brings his faced paced, Art Briles-esq offense up from UCF. He will be looking to make a statement and make it early. While Tennessee might be an average team in the SEC, BG is just too overmatched and Huepel will be looking to make a statement. I like the first half bet here as the longer the game goes to the more you risk a backdoor by BG on the 35. While I think that will hit as well I'm looking to get a good start to the weekend early Thursday night.
Pick #2 (2 Units) - Under 62.5 (-110) Ohio State @ Minnesota
It's obvious that the key to the game for Minnesota here is to feed the ball to Ibrahim, control the game clock and keep the Ohio State Offense off the field. This is even more evident that Minnesota's leading receiver in Chris Autman-Bell is questionable to play tonight. Ohio State is also playing their first game with Stroud at QB and I could see some early growing pains for him in this one facing off against a solid B1G opponent in his first game. I also foresee Ohio State leading on their run game to keep Stroud comfortable and in manageable situations. With everything listed out I see this one staying somewhat low scoring and below the total.
Pick #3 (2 Units) - Indiana Moneyline (+150) @ Cockeye
The wrong team is favored here IMO, Cockeye doesn't have the speed or athleticism that Indiana brings to the table. Michael PENIX Jr. is one of the best QB's in the B1G and returns one of his top weapons in Fryfogle. The Indiana run game was fairly average last year but they bring in USC transfer Stephan Carr at running back and the line is experienced. Iowas is replacing 3 starters on their defensive line and I see Indiana being able to move the ball at will. On offense we will see much of the same average play we typically see from them, Spencer Petras doesn't have the ability or athletes around him to win this game. These types of Indiana teams are the teams that Cockeye is afraid of and I see Indiana taking the W on Saturday
Pick #4 (2 Units) - Over 67 (-110) Kent State @ Texas A&M
I think Kent State will surprise some people here. While their competition was pretty bad last year they led the nation in scoring and run a really high tempo spread attack led by QB Dustin Crum, who is regarded as one of the top QBs in G5. They also return pretty much their entire offense. While they do return a lot of players on defense, the defensive unit was terrible last year, most notably giving up close to 500 yards rushing to Buffalo. I see Texas A&M scoring at will but Kent State will be able to move the ball enough to get some points and keep A&M on the throttle. Even if the game gets out of hand I see Kent still trying to play fast and score in the second half and may even backdoor the +28.5 but for now I am more comfortable taking the overs here.
Pick #5 (4 units) - Under 51 (-110) New Mexico State @ San Diego State
San Diego State is very much like the Wisconsin in G5. They aren't the most talented but they have an identity running the ball and playing solid defense and finding players that fit into this mold and develop them into this identity. NMSU is coming off of a 30-3 loss to UTEP and I don't see them being able to score more than they did in that game against SDSU, as SDSU is a way better ball club than UTEP. SDSU will do what they do, run the ball and the clock, play solid defense against a bad opponent and should easily cruise to a 31-3 type victory as they milk clock and go on long time consuming drives.
Please tune in every Wednesday this college football season as I will be dropping my gambling LOCKS for the upcoming week of college football. Disclaimer - I am a terrible gambler and these picks should probably be faded. Also, I will be measuring 1 unit as 5% of my total bankroll, anything over 5 units will be considered a BANGER.
Pick #1 (4 Units) - Tennessee -21.5 (1H)(-115) vs Bowling Green
I expect Josh Huepel and Tennessee to get off to fast start to the season and Bowling Green comes to town. This is more of a bet against Bowling Green than it is in favor of Tennessee. Bowling Green is one of the absolute worst teams in College football at the moment. They are in the same tier and UConn and New Mexico State currently, they went 0-6 in their MAC schedule last year and their closest game they still lost by 25 points😳. Their O-Line will have a couple Freshman starting and their receivers are all new and inexperienced. QB play was abysmal as well, their starter is returning but he might be replaced by one of Syracuse's backups from last year who I assume sucks as well. Their defense was terrible against the run, giving up 310 yards per game. This is the debut for Josh Huepel at Tennessee as he brings his faced paced, Art Briles-esq offense up from UCF. He will be looking to make a statement and make it early. While Tennessee might be an average team in the SEC, BG is just too overmatched and Huepel will be looking to make a statement. I like the first half bet here as the longer the game goes to the more you risk a backdoor by BG on the 35. While I think that will hit as well I'm looking to get a good start to the weekend early Thursday night.
Pick #2 (2 Units) - Under 62.5 (-110) Ohio State @ Minnesota
It's obvious that the key to the game for Minnesota here is to feed the ball to Ibrahim, control the game clock and keep the Ohio State Offense off the field. This is even more evident that Minnesota's leading receiver in Chris Autman-Bell is questionable to play tonight. Ohio State is also playing their first game with Stroud at QB and I could see some early growing pains for him in this one facing off against a solid B1G opponent in his first game. I also foresee Ohio State leading on their run game to keep Stroud comfortable and in manageable situations. With everything listed out I see this one staying somewhat low scoring and below the total.
Pick #3 (2 Units) - Indiana Moneyline (+150) @ Cockeye
The wrong team is favored here IMO, Cockeye doesn't have the speed or athleticism that Indiana brings to the table. Michael PENIX Jr. is one of the best QB's in the B1G and returns one of his top weapons in Fryfogle. The Indiana run game was fairly average last year but they bring in USC transfer Stephan Carr at running back and the line is experienced. Iowas is replacing 3 starters on their defensive line and I see Indiana being able to move the ball at will. On offense we will see much of the same average play we typically see from them, Spencer Petras doesn't have the ability or athletes around him to win this game. These types of Indiana teams are the teams that Cockeye is afraid of and I see Indiana taking the W on Saturday
Pick #4 (2 Units) - Over 67 (-110) Kent State @ Texas A&M
I think Kent State will surprise some people here. While their competition was pretty bad last year they led the nation in scoring and run a really high tempo spread attack led by QB Dustin Crum, who is regarded as one of the top QBs in G5. They also return pretty much their entire offense. While they do return a lot of players on defense, the defensive unit was terrible last year, most notably giving up close to 500 yards rushing to Buffalo. I see Texas A&M scoring at will but Kent State will be able to move the ball enough to get some points and keep A&M on the throttle. Even if the game gets out of hand I see Kent still trying to play fast and score in the second half and may even backdoor the +28.5 but for now I am more comfortable taking the overs here.
Pick #5 (4 units) - Under 51 (-110) New Mexico State @ San Diego State
San Diego State is very much like the Wisconsin in G5. They aren't the most talented but they have an identity running the ball and playing solid defense and finding players that fit into this mold and develop them into this identity. NMSU is coming off of a 30-3 loss to UTEP and I don't see them being able to score more than they did in that game against SDSU, as SDSU is a way better ball club than UTEP. SDSU will do what they do, run the ball and the clock, play solid defense against a bad opponent and should easily cruise to a 31-3 type victory as they milk clock and go on long time consuming drives.
