December Recruiting Thread

[jaihawk]

WTF??? Now even our coaches are gaying up tPB???

 

[Herbie]

WTF??? Now even our coaches are gaying up tPB???

Embrace the gay

 

[Flabio]

 

[herbsinator]

View attachment 46576

We don’t want or need this guy, but he will probably commit to Wisconsin and completely fuck our asses for 4 years straight.

 

[Carm]

View attachment 46576

why bother to make a pick with a confidence level of 3 on a scale of 1 to 10?

 

[2010sarenevercomingback]

why bother to make a pick with a confidence level of 3 on a scale of 1 to 10?

The actual scale appears to go from 3 to 7. For whatever reason, even though they set up their own numbers, virtually all the prognosticators stay in that range. Maybe an occasional 8 sneaks in there, but the distribution chart would probably have 90%+ of the CBs in the 5-7 range.

 

[Carm]

The actual scale appears to go from 3 to 7. For whatever reason, even though they set up their own numbers, virtually all the prognosticators stay in that range. Maybe an occasional 8 sneaks in there, but the distribution chart would probably have 90%+ of the CBs in the 5-7 range.

in the last 12 months Wallace has given predictions with confidence levels ranging from 1 to 9

 

[nja13]

The actual scale appears to go from 3 to 7. For whatever reason, even though they set up their own numbers, virtually all the prognosticators stay in that range. Maybe an occasional 8 sneaks in there, but the distribution chart would probably have 90%+ of the CBs in the 5-7 range.

I thought the lowest they could go was 6 since that was the lowest I've ever seen. I figured you'd have to be at least at a 6 to put in a pick.

I did see a "lock" level confidence rating once though. It was recently. Like in the last month or so.... it was the Kentucky high school guy we signed. Someone picked him to flip to Missouri and had it as a "lock" confidence. Kinda funny the only time I've noticed a "lock" rating was actually wrong.

 

[Carm]

I thought the lowest they could go was 6 since that was the lowest I've ever seen. I figured you'd have to be at least at a 6 to put in a pick.

I did see a "lock" level confidence rating once though. It was recently. Like in the last month or so.... it was the Kentucky high school guy we signed. Someone picked him to flip to Missouri and had it as a "lock" confidence. Kinda funny the only time I've noticed a "lock" rating was actually wrong.

I remember that, too - I posted it here.

If you see this on On 3 (i.e., a low-rated RPM) it usually happens when the guy originally predicted with a higher level of confidence, but it now looks like the prediction is wrong and they don't know where the kid is going. The reduction in confidence hurts their success rate less when they turn out to be wrong. But Wallace's looks like an initial pick for Hunter.

 

[2010sarenevercomingback]

in the last 12 months Wallace has given predictions with confidence levels ranging from 1 to 9

I appreciate a recruiting guy who puts his best guesses out there based on what he knows, instead of worrying about accuracy percentage, and uses the confidence level appropriately to indicate whether it's a guess or based on intel.

He's an extreme outlier in doing that, though.

 

[Carm]

I appreciate a recruiting guy who puts his best guesses out there based on what he knows, instead of worrying about accuracy percentage, and uses the confidence level appropriately to indicate whether it's a guess or based on intel.

He's an extreme outlier in doing that, though.

I'm sort of the opposite. I like guys who don't predict until they have some intel that makes the choice seem likely. That tells me more than a guess based on little real evidence.

 

[herbsinator]

I'm sort of the opposite. I like guys who don't predict until they have some intel that makes the choice seem likely. That tells me more than a guess based on little real evidence.

Is the purpose of the system meant to indicate actual intel or just a way to gauge the general vibe. In any case, it’s all pretty dumb when people like Fong flip their predictions all the time.

 

[Carm]

Is the purpose of the system meant to indicate actual intel or just a way to gauge the general vibe. In any case, it’s all pretty dumb when people like Fong flip their predictions all the time.

It tells you something really did change, because his choice is always based on intel. Many times, predictors were right when they made the prediction (i.e., it was where the kid himself thought he was going at the time) but something happens - money, someone else commits and takes the spot, they get a better offer they didn't expect, etc. - and the pick changes. If there is a change in fact I want to know, and Wiltfong's 'flips' helps me know.

I don't care who wins the prediction contest.

 

[2010sarenevercomingback]

It tells you something really did change, because his choice is always based on intel.

I used to think so, but him predicting to Dylan to USC destroyed that illusion for me.

 

[herbsinator]

It tells you something really did change, because his choice is always based on intel. Many times, predictors were right when they made the prediction (i.e., it was where the kid himself thought he was going at the time) but something happens - money, someone else commits and takes the spot, they get a better offer they didn't expect, etc. - and the pick changes. If there is a change in fact I want to know, and Wiltfong's 'flips' helps me know.

I don't care who wins the prediction contest.

That’s fair brother.

 

[Carm]

I used to think so, but him predicting to Dylan to USC destroyed that illusion for me.

How do you know he did not have intel from SC sources at the time to the effect that they (USC) felt very confident he was coming? Personally, I'd bet he did, but we will likely never know.

 

[vailhusker]

 

[2010sarenevercomingback]

How do you know he did not have intel from SC sources at the time to the effect that they (USC) felt very confident he was coming? Personally, I'd bet he did, but we will likely never know.

Hard to prove a negative, but it's been a pretty well reported recruitment journey, and the process inspected & rehashed with many of the Raiolas on many occasions, both during & after. At no point was USC talked about as the leader, and the SC insiders at the time when breaking down their chances were pretty transparent that their predictions were basically guesses.

I get that SC's staff may have thought the visit went well, but that's a "vibes" type of prediction.

Which again, I'm 100% on board with recruiting guys doing, but they literally created their own scale to show that, and don't use it.

 

[Carm]

Hard to prove a negative, but it's been a pretty well reported recruitment journey, and the process inspected & rehashed with many of the Raiolas on many occasions, both during & after. At no point was USC talked about as the leader, and the SC insiders at the time when breaking down their chances were pretty transparent that their predictions were basically guesses.

I get that SC's staff may have thought the visit went well, but that's a "vibes" type of prediction.

Which again, I'm 100% on board with recruiting guys doing, but they literally created their own scale to show that, and don't use it.

I read a lot of material contemporaneous with, and shortly after, his visit (March 2022?) from guys running SC message boards saying that the staff was confident Riley was reeling him in. I'd call that intel. Irt was more than "he loved his visit". Those guys are experienced recruiters. Obviously, whatever they saw in the Raiola's reactions and statement they made them feel that way faded over time.

 

[Herbie]

No accunes?