Looking for the smartest people on this board to guide me so what happened to me last year doesn't happen to me again. If interested...
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Last year I went out on a limb in my friends group for Nebraska over 7 1/2 wins. I was kind of the ringleader for the over position. The Husker fans in the group were split probably 40/60ish on over/under, but all of the non-Husker fans (two Cockeye, one Cockeye St, one WiscyDicks) looked at me like I was actually retarded...All of them told me to expect either 4 or 5 wins at best with no hesitation. "We'll see" I said and smugly chuckled to myself knowing we had Casey Thompson + Trey Palmer + an OC whose last work experience wasn't at a regional credit union + an improved special teams. I said the better line would be 8.5 and I'd still be on the over.
Then we lose to Northwestern week zero and we were literally their only win all damn season. They lost at home to Southern Illinois and Miami OH, both of whom were middling teams in the Missouri Valley and MAC respectively, and lost to every other team on their schedule, but they beat "Big Red" on a neutral field. Of course after this I'm getting roasted mercilessly in the group chat as it was immediately obvious the under play would win easily...need I remind you I said the line should be set at 8.5 and I'd still be over. I coped and told everyone how Nebraska wins that game 9 out of 10 times (fluke) and that Northwestern would probably win 7 games anyhow.
I won that group's season-long pick-em contest, so I'm not that bad at picking college football games, but I'm completely blind when it comes to Nebraska. The bet is coming up again shortly and any guidance would be much appreciated.