POLL Big brains only please: Over/under 6.5

[Stan Raymond]

Today I like the over, but I flip flop between 6 or 7 wins, 6.5 line is tough to bet either way IMO. If you include the post season I feel real good for 7 wins then.

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

Looking for the smartest people on this board to guide me so what happened to me last year doesn't happen to me again. If interested...

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Last year I went out on a limb in my friends group for Nebraska over 7 1/2 wins. I was kind of the ringleader for the over position. The Husker fans in the group were split probably 40/60ish on over/under, but all of the non-Husker fans (two Cockeye, one Cockeye St, one Wisconsin) looked at me like I was actually retarded...All of them told me to expect either 4 or 5 wins at best with no hesitation. "We'll see" I said and smugly chuckled to myself knowing we had Casey Thompson + Trey Palmer + an OC whose last work experience wasn't at a regional credit union + an improved special teams. I said the better line would be 8.5 and I'd still be on the over.

Then we lose to Northwestern week zero and we were literally their only win all damn season. They lost at home to Southern Illinois and Miami OH, both of whom were middling teams in the Missouri Valley and MAC respectively, and lost to every other team on their schedule, but they beat "Big Red" on a neutral field. Of course after this I'm getting roasted mercilessly in the group chat as it was immediately obvious the under play would win easily...need I remind you I said the line should be set at 8.5 and I'd still be over. I coped and told everyone how Nebraska wins that game 9 out of 10 times (fluke) and that Northwestern would probably win 7 games anyhow.

I won that group's season-long pick-em contest, so I'm not that bad at picking college football games, but I'm completely blind when it comes to Nebraska. The bet is coming up again shortly and any guidance would be much appreciated.

So analytically speaking to get an idea about where this team SHOULD be...

Nebraska was 4-8 last year. I would give us a -2 for coaching (NW & GASU) I could hear arguments for -3 given some of the close losses Mickey had, but I will be conservative for this exercise.

So we will be starting with 6-6 as what we are building off of.

• The most valuable spots for returning production....
  • QB +1 - Yes Casey isn't here, but we have a Sims who has been a multi year starter.
  • Kicker and Punter - Odd one, but matrix analytical said returning kicker and punter is good for +1
    • Yes if Alvano beats out Bleekrode (should happen based on Bleekrode's spring) it is still good for +1
• The next most valuable spots for returning production....
  • DB room - this will be the strength of the defense. Returning starters at all spots. Again doesn't matter if somebody beats out somebody because that is viewed as an upgrade to analytics.
  • OL room- good or bad the amount of snaps played returning in this room should be among the highest in the conference.
• The drawbacks
  • Year 1 coaches are good for -1 to -2 win factor historically speaking. Rhule's year 1's have been bad averaging 1.5 wins.
    • I will say this might not be true for Nebraska given how I think Busch and Mickey laid a lot of the groundwork last year.

Analytics have the team in the 7-8 win area.

Now if you take that aside....

• I have concerns about how we will score. I think we really need Betts, Coleman or somebody to show up as a threat. Is that a Fidone? Seems like to me you are banking on some things to go right that haven't historically.
• Front 7 depth. I think the starting unit in the front 7 will be pretty good. I just worry that when we need to go into that 2 deep what that will look like. We need some LBs with some injury problems to stay healthy or some pups to step up. On a positive note, White's defense seems user friendly and it wouldn't shock me to see younger guys accel in it. Be curious what @ShortSideOption or @slattimer thoughts are here.

I intentionally didn't factor in schedule talk because the last 8 years it didn't matter. Nebraska had to not beat itself for that to matter at all. BUT you did swap out OU for Colorado AND you will have 3 out of conference games where there defenses last year were in the bottom 1/3rd (probably worse, but I don't want to look it up again.)

So long story short, I bet the under last year and I bet the over this year. TFWIW.

 

[redzoner]

You’ve failed to take the most important factor into account. Actually it’s the only factor. We exist within The Simulation™ for the sole purpose of being mentally tormented.

I’ve discussed this in another thread, but the Deion thing is making it painfully clear to me what is going on. All signs point to them being terrible. There is going to be a lot of eyes on that game, and we are gonna totally shit the bed and springboard Deion to success. In any non-simulated reality he would be terrible, but not here.

It’s mathematically calculated torture. That is why I take the under.

I can't decide what's worse. We lose to Colorado and it springboards them to success or we are their only win like last year with Northwestern.

Glad The Simulation has options.

 

[Lionsfan93]

God damn...this thread has me all sorts of excited...

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

God damn...this thread has me all sorts of excited...

I mean Rhule going a combine 3 wins in year 1 at Temple AND Baylor didn't do it?

 

[HerbRedman]

6-6

Take the under. Sims is a complete mystery, no one knows how he's going to play this year. If he's exactly the same guy he was at GT then we will be 6-6 or 5-7.

 

[JerryBones5]

Looking for the smartest people on this board to guide me so what happened to me last year doesn't happen to me again. If interested...

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Last year I went out on a limb in my friends group for Nebraska over 7 1/2 wins. I was kind of the ringleader for the over position. The Husker fans in the group were split probably 40/60ish on over/under, but all of the non-Husker fans (two Cockeye, one Cockeye St, one Wisconsin) looked at me like I was actually retarded...All of them told me to expect either 4 or 5 wins at best with no hesitation. "We'll see" I said and smugly chuckled to myself knowing we had Casey Thompson + Trey Palmer + an OC whose last work experience wasn't at a regional credit union + an improved special teams. I said the better line would be 8.5 and I'd still be on the over.

Then we lose to Northwestern week zero and we were literally their only win all damn season. They lost at home to Southern Illinois and Miami OH, both of whom were middling teams in the Missouri Valley and MAC respectively, and lost to every other team on their schedule, but they beat "Big Red" on a neutral field. Of course after this I'm getting roasted mercilessly in the group chat as it was immediately obvious the under play would win easily...need I remind you I said the line should be set at 8.5 and I'd still be over. I coped and told everyone how Nebraska wins that game 9 out of 10 times (fluke) and that Northwestern would probably win 7 games anyhow.

I won that group's season-long pick-em contest, so I'm not that bad at picking college football games, but I'm completely blind when it comes to Nebraska. The bet is coming up again shortly and any guidance would be much appreciated.

Over. The schedule is favorable and I truly believe we’re going to run the damn ball effectively by finally coming down hill. I also think we have more playmakers on the offensive side of the ball than what most people think. Could see betts having a big year. Need the Oline to hold up and I trust Rhule in this department. Sims must stay healthy.

Defensively, I believe we actually will be able to get consistent pressure on the QB thanks to Tony Whites Exotic blitz packages. Secondary should be pretty salty so if we are able to get pressure from upfront it’ll lead to more turnovers.

No onside kicks up 2 possessions. 7-5 GBR

 

[HerbRedman]

Over. The schedule is favorable and I truly believe we’re going to run the damn ball effectively by finally coming down hill. I also think we have more playmakers on the offensive side of the ball than what most people think. Could see betts having a big year. Need the Oline to hold up and I trust Rhule in this department. Sims must stay healthy.

Defensively, I believe we actually will be able to get consistent pressure on the QB thanks to Tony Whites Exotic blitz packages. Secondary should be pretty salty so if we are able to get pressure from upfront it’ll lead to more turnovers.

No onside kicks up 2 possessions. 7-5 GBR

To back this up... Nebraska was already a 6-6 team last year. Yeah the record was 4-8, but if Nebraska even had semi-competent HC/DC we would have easily beaten 1-11 NW and GA Southern at home.

So if the team was basically 6-6 level last year then you'd have to think Matt Rhule is worth at least a +1 in the W/L column. That's your argument for the over.

 

[Mavsker]

To back this up... Nebraska was already a 6-6 team last year. Yeah the record was 4-8, but if Nebraska even had semi-competent HC/DC we would have easily beaten 1-11 NW and GA Southern at home.

So if the team was basically 6-6 level last year then you'd have to think Matt Rhule is worth at least a +1 in the W/L column. That's your argument for the over.

And we trade Oklahoma for Colorado... 👀

 

[Toe]

Unknowns all over the place, and feels like the floor is further below the O/U than the ceiling is above it.

That's pretty much how I'm feeling. Which feels more plausible: 2.5 under (4 wins) or 2.5 over (9 wins)?

 

[HuskerGarrett]

We are one Jeff Sims heisman run away from a perfect season. Over.

 

[HuskerPAC]

Over. The schedule is favorable and I truly believe we’re going to run the damn ball effectively by finally coming down hill. I also think we have more playmakers on the offensive side of the ball than what most people think. Could see betts having a big year. Need the Oline to hold up and I trust Rhule in this department. Sims must stay healthy.

Defensively, I believe we actually will be able to get consistent pressure on the QB thanks to Tony Whites Exotic blitz packages. Secondary should be pretty salty so if we are able to get pressure from upfront it’ll lead to more turnovers.

No onside kicks up 2 possessions. 7-5 GBR

That onside kick up 2 possessions with all the momentum was a visionary move. I expect to see more of it across the country this season.

 

[Bootleg11]

That onside kick up 2 possessions with all the momentum was a visionary move. I expect to see more of it across the country this season.

Oh my God. I'll never forget my 12 year old turning to me and saying "there goes that win" Lol

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

That onside kick up 2 possessions with all the momentum was a visionary move. I expect to see more of it across the country this season.

Yeah, I almost wonder if he wanted to get fired before his buyout dropped when he quit.

 

[betsch]

Go with the under for the money. Then if you are over you still win in life with a better record.

 

[ShortSideOption]

So analytically speaking to get an idea about where this team SHOULD be...

Nebraska was 4-8 last year. I would give us a -2 for coaching (NW & GASU) I could hear arguments for -3 given some of the close losses Mickey had, but I will be conservative for this exercise.

So we will be starting with 6-6 as what we are building off of.

• The most valuable spots for returning production....
  • QB +1 - Yes Casey isn't here, but we have a Sims who has been a multi year starter.
  • Kicker and Punter - Odd one, but matrix analytical said returning kicker and punter is good for +1
    • Yes if Alvano beats out Bleekrode (should happen based on Bleekrode's spring) it is still good for +1
• The next most valuable spots for returning production....
  • DB room - this will be the strength of the defense. Returning starters at all spots. Again doesn't matter if somebody beats out somebody because that is viewed as an upgrade to analytics.
  • OL room- good or bad the amount of snaps played returning in this room should be among the highest in the conference.
• The drawbacks
  • Year 1 coaches are good for -1 to -2 win factor historically speaking. Rhule's year 1's have been bad averaging 1.5 wins.
    • I will say this might not be true for Nebraska given how I think Busch and Mickey laid a lot of the groundwork last year.

Analytics have the team in the 7-8 win area.

Now if you take that aside....

• I have concerns about how we will score. I think we really need Betts, Coleman or somebody to show up as a threat. Is that a Fidone? Seems like to me you are banking on some things to go right that haven't historically.
• Front 7 depth. I think the starting unit in the front 7 will be pretty good. I just worry that when we need to go into that 2 deep what that will look like. We need some LBs with some injury problems to stay healthy or some pups to step up. On a positive note, White's defense seems user friendly and it wouldn't shock me to see younger guys accel in it. Be curious what @ShortSideOption or @slattimer thoughts are here.

I intentionally didn't factor in schedule talk because the last 8 years it didn't matter. Nebraska had to not beat itself for that to matter at all. BUT you did swap out OU for Colorado AND you will have 3 out of conference games where there defenses last year were in the bottom 1/3rd (probably worse, but I don't want to look it up again.)

So long story short, I bet the under last year and I bet the over this year. TFWIW.

I actually am not as worried about the front 3 as I thought. I'm not sold on Butler yet, but Sherman at least gives us another option. But ILB... that is dicey in a hurry. Reimer and Henrich can't stay healthy to save their lives before we talk about if they are any good or not.

 

[ChocaEgg]

Safe pick is the under when you take into account how bad corc and trex are.

 

[Mr.Bojangles]

I say 7-5 better coaching goes a long way.

 

[Poor_and_Stupid]

Take the under. Better to look like a pessimist than a retard.

Simms gets injured we're fucked. Any of our linemen go down, we're fucked. Any injuries to the LB corp... we're fucked.

 

[Cornicator]

This is where I'm at. Although I'd flip Maryland and Wisconsin.

I think we lose to Maryland and beat Wisconsin. Maryland has recruited well and Wisconsin will take 2-3 years to hit their groove with a complete flip in offensive philosophy.

Colorado scares me a bit, simply due to PTSD....but when you take the emotion out of the decision, I think CU is a train wreck.

6-6 for me.

I think anyone who picks Mike Locksley to win on the road at a team other than Buttgers or Indianus is the same person who picked Scott Frost to win a game vs a Power 5 team after a bye or in a season opener.

(Raises hand)

Don't be a dipshit. Use reason. I like 6-6 as well, but I think Nebraska will beat Maryland even if this Husker team limps in at like 2-7 when they play.

Now, if you can definitively convince yourself that Nebraska in 2023 is going to be as terrible as Buttgers or Indianus at home in 2021 or 2022, then I will give you the benefit of the doubt.

One thing you should consider about Maryland in 2023:

They are 10th in the Big Ten in returning production going into this season.