POLL Big brains only please: Over/under 6.5

[Mavsker]

Looking for the smartest people on this board to guide me so what happened to me last year doesn't happen to me again. If interested...

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last year I went out on a limb in my friends group for Nebraska over 7 1/2 wins. I was kind of the ringleader for the over position. The Husker fans in the group were split probably 40/60ish on over/under, but all of the non-Husker fans (two Cockeye, one Cockeye St, one Wisconsin) looked at me like I was actually retarded...All of them told me to expect either 4 or 5 wins at best with no hesitation. "We'll see" I said and smugly chuckled to myself knowing we had Casey Thompson + Trey Palmer + an OC whose last work experience wasn't at a regional credit union + an improved special teams. I said the better line would be 8.5 and I'd still be on the over.

Then we lose to Northwestern week zero and we were literally their only win all damn season. They lost at home to Southern Illinois and Miami OH, both of whom were middling teams in the Missouri Valley and MAC respectively, and lost to every other team on their schedule, but they beat "Big Red" on a neutral field. Of course after this I'm getting roasted mercilessly in the group chat as it was immediately obvious the under play would win easily...need I remind you I said the line should be set at 8.5 and I'd still be over. I coped and told everyone how Nebraska wins that game 9 out of 10 times (fluke) and that Northwestern would probably win 7 games anyhow.

I won that group's season-long pick-em contest, so I'm not that bad at picking college football games, but I'm completely blind when it comes to Nebraska. The bet is coming up again shortly and any guidance would be much appreciated.

 

[Husker_in_OK]

We are a Jeff Sims injury away from being 3-9 at best. Under

 

[Mavsker]

I am leaning towards the over again fwiw...Bill Busch said he expects at least 8 wins this year and I feel like he knows the roster and what we're capable of.

 

[Napkins]

I’m going under. I think 3-1 is realistic to start. Loses to UM and Illinois (3-3). We could win the next 2 with NW and Purdoodoo (5-3). I don’t know what to do with the rest of the season but until they prove otherwise I think late in the season with injuries it will be easier for us to find 3 loses than 2 wins.

 

[Bootleg11]

Man....I've looked at the schedule a million times but let's do it again. What you have to ask yourself is this...do you think Nebraska is more likely to go 7-5 with this schedule or 6-6 with this schedule.

@ Minnesota - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose. - L

@ Colorado - I think Nebraska will win this game. - W

Northern Illinois - W

La Tech - W

Michigan - L

@ Illinois - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose - L

Northwestern- I think Nebraska could lose this game. I think it is more likely that they win - W

Purdoodoo - I think Nebraska could lose this game. I think it is more likely that they win - W

@ Michigan St - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose - L

Maryland - I think Nebraska could lose this game. I think it is more likely that they win - W

@ Wisconsin - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose. - L

Cockeye - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose - L


That puts them at 6-6

I would actually pick them to win at least 2 of these 4: Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan St, Cockeye. But with what we know right now...Nebraska QB depth. Unknown at LT. Unknown LB and DL depth. WR deep threat questions. All new systems. Oh and by the way a team that hasn't sniffed winning 7 games in a long time. I'd bet the under.

 

[Huskerforlife]

6-6

 

[2010sarenevercomingback]

Unknowns all over the place, and feels like the floor is further below the O/U than the ceiling is above it.

I also think a more detail-oriented & less head-case coaching staff, plus having an identity is going to make a lot of the holes we saw last year look a lot less glaring. Schedule only has a couple really tough games, with most being ones where it'd be expected to be close, so how do we handle those types of games as a team, and the intangibles of finishing well? I'm optimistic, but that's a feel, not really something that you can quantify with hard data.

7 is about where I expected to land before all the lines came out, so I would say a slight edge to the over in my personal pick.

 

[Pipe Line]

6-6, Frost era ended my Nebraska gambling habit

 

[Baron Winnebago]

The lines scare the shit out of me so I'm under

 

[Alcaus]

Take the under. Better to look like a pessimist than a retard.

Simms gets injured we're fucked. Any of our linemen go down, we're fucked. Any injuries to the LB corp... we're fucked.

 

[BIGSTICK67]

Man....I've looked at the schedule a million times but let's do it again. What you have to ask yourself is this...do you think Nebraska is more likely to go 7-5 with this schedule or 6-6 with this schedule.

@ Minnesota - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose. - L

@ Colorado - I think Nebraska will win this game. - W

Northern Illinois - W

La Tech - W

Michigan - L

@ Illinois - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose - L

Northwestern- I think Nebraska could lose this game. I think it is more likely that they win - W

Purdoodoo - I think Nebraska could lose this game. I think it is more likely that they win - W

@ Michigan St - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose - L

Maryland - I think Nebraska could lose this game. I think it is more likely that they win - W

@ Wisconsin - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose. - L

Cockeye - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose - L


That puts them at 6-6

I would actually pick them to win at least 2 of these 4: Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan St, Cockeye. But with what we know right now...Nebraska QB depth. Unknown at LT. Unknown LB and DL depth. WR deep threat questions. All new systems. Oh and by the way a team that hasn't sniffed winning 7 games in a long time. I'd bet the under.

This is where I'm at. Although I'd flip Maryland and Wisconsin.

I think we lose to Maryland and beat Wisconsin. Maryland has recruited well and Wisconsin will take 2-3 years to hit their groove with a complete flip in offensive philosophy.

Colorado scares me a bit, simply due to PTSD....but when you take the emotion out of the decision, I think CU is a train wreck.

6-6 for me.

 

[That SOB Van Owen]

If you picked the overs last year you cannot be helped. GBR NFM.

 

[Bootleg11]

This is where I'm at. Although I'd flip Maryland and Wisconsin.

I think we lose to Maryland and beat Wisconsin. Maryland has recruited well and Wisconsin will take 2-3 years to hit their groove with a complete flip in offensive philosophy.

Colorado scares me a bit, simply due to PTSD....but when you take the emotion out of the decision, I think CU is a train wreck.

6-6 for me.

Yep that's fair.

That QB Wisconsin is depending on has not played well v Power 5 schools, shit he threw like 2 or 3 picks in their spring game.

 

[Mavsker]

Man....I've looked at the schedule a million times but let's do it again. What you have to ask yourself is this...do you think Nebraska is more likely to go 7-5 with this schedule or 6-6 with this schedule.

@ Minnesota - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose. - L

@ Colorado - I think Nebraska will win this game. - W

Northern Illinois - W

La Tech - W

Michigan - L

@ Illinois - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose - L

Northwestern- I think Nebraska could lose this game. I think it is more likely that they win - W

Purdoodoo - I think Nebraska could lose this game. I think it is more likely that they win - W

@ Michigan St - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose - L

Maryland - I think Nebraska could lose this game. I think it is more likely that they win - W

@ Wisconsin - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose. - L

Cockeye - I think Nebraska could win this game. I think it is more likely that they lose - L


That puts them at 6-6

I would actually pick them to win at least 2 of these 4: Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan St, Cockeye. But with what we know right now...Nebraska QB depth. Unknown at LT. Unknown LB and DL depth. WR deep threat questions. All new systems. Oh and by the way a team that hasn't sniffed winning 7 games in a long time. I'd bet the under.

When I go game by game I kind of come to the same conclusion. However if we start 5-3 I think we finish 2-2 against Mich St, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Cockeye. Michigan St never scares me, we got the monkey off our back with Cockeye, and Wisconsin is basically doing a Bill Callahan experiment.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

Take the under. Better to look like a pessimist than a retard.

Simms gets injured we're fucked. Any of our linemen go down, we're fucked. Any injuries to the LB corp... we're fucked.

You should put that in a bumper sticker

 

[Bootleg11]

When I go game by game I kind of come to the same conclusion. However if we start 5-3 I think we finish 2-2 against Mich St, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Cockeye. Michigan St never scares me, we got the monkey off our back with Cockeye, and Wisconsin is basically doing a Bill Callahan experiment.

Very reasonable. If you want to talk yourself into the over...3 wins you think they'll win for sure, 1 game you think they'll lose for sure. That leaves 9 toss up games, 4 of those are at home.

If you bet over 6.5 then you should prepare yourself for an even more emotional Black Friday game vs Cockeye. More than likely your bet is going to depend on Nebraska beating Cockeye.

Could make for an even more miserable Black Friday or a really really good Black Friday.

 

[Huskerforlife]

Take the under. Better to look like a pessimist than a retard.

Simms gets injured we're fucked. Any of our linemen go down, we're fucked. Any injuries to the LB corp... we're fucked.

Center is also a concern IMO. If Ben Scott is dinged or injured, we don't have a reliable backup, just like with Sims.

I know the staff may use Jenkins or someone else for center, but we'll be back to the same problem we had with Jurgens as the lone experienced center, and that was after a lot of mile-high snaps that he got better.

 

[NeAz]

I’d bet the under at 5.5 wins. Easy money here.

 

[Tell_Sackett]

I'd go under. We could easily go 1-4 on the road and I don't see more than 5 wins at home under any realistic circumstance.

I expect traditional weaker foes such as Maryland and Illinois to be solid. I don't like opening with two straight road games while implementing entirely new offensive and defensive systems. Otherwise, our schedule is about as easy as it will ever be in the BIG which gives me the dangerous "glimmer of hope" I've had in every previous season I can remember.

 

[Poor_and_Stupid]

You’ve failed to take the most important factor into account. Actually it’s the only factor. We exist within The Simulation™ for the sole purpose of being mentally tormented.

I’ve discussed this in another thread, but the Deion thing is making it painfully clear to me what is going on. All signs point to them being terrible. There is going to be a lot of eyes on that game, and we are gonna totally shit the bed and springboard Deion to success. In any non-simulated reality he would be terrible, but not here.

It’s mathematically calculated torture. That is why I take the under.