A Somewhat Contrarian Opinion on NU-Michigan

[2010sarenevercomingback]

Disclaimer: I watched this game with 4 young kids & may have missed some details, but this was my impression, & I looked at the full stats to confirm.

I didn't come away from this game as disheartened as most people. It sucked to lose, and we did lose (no moral victories), so it's not a sunshine post, but the kind of game that would have especially sucked (and what a lot of people on this board seemed to think was going to happen) was Michigan just gashing our D on every play, taking 4-8 yards each carry, & imposing their will on us with long drives as our DL got pushed off the ball repeatedly. Then our run offense getting stuffed for 1-2 yards all game as our OL got pushed back repeatedly. We've all seen that movie a ton of times over the past number of years.

But that didn't happen. Our defense didn't let them sustain drives, & on the only 2 they did (16 for 77 yards & 10 for 46), the D stiffened & held them to a FG. Now when they did break down on 3 particular plays, it was catastrophically bad, but Michigan punted or turned it over on 5/11 drives, and had touchdowns on 3/11. That is a solid defensive number against a quality team, where we're holding them at or under NCAA averages. A mobile quarterback was (mostly) contained, & our secondary stayed elite in coverage.

On offense, our run game had a number of effective interior runs (particularly in the 1st half & 4th quarter - 3rd quarter was bad with two 3 & outs), and we had 5-6 quality sustained drives. Obviously, our tackles got badly overwhelmed in pass pro, but we were going against one of the most talented DLs in the country, and offensive tackle/pass rushers are the premium positions where the disparity between the elite teams & the rest of the country is the greatest. For some context, here are the prospect grades for their 2 deep across the DL:

First team:
.9872
.9789
.9253
.8825

Second team:
.9569
.9434
.8697
.8853

IOW, it was a buffet of 5 stars & high 4 stars (in a program with a strong pedigree for DL development & performance), with their second team being more highly rated than most starting units we'll see, and maybe top 3 talent in the country overall. I think Nebraska has a ways to go to get our line/tackles to elite, but I don't think we're far from being good.

I was frustrated with the loss, but at the same time, it was not the kind of loss that would have frustrated me the most. I still think there are plenty of Ws left on the table, and 2025 looking like another step forward if we respond well & continue to clean things up as the season progresses.

 

[kevost]

11-1

I think the biggest question is do we lose first game of playoffs or lose in the natty?

 

[Carm]

I am in the same camp as you.

Michigan had a decided talent edge, not just in the front 7 on defense, but also at RB. Haynes was the second rated RB in his class,
Marshall was #4 in his. You need elite talent in the second and third layer to stop explosives if those guys breakthrough into space.

Michigan has had between the 2nd and 4th rated recruiting classes in the conference the last six years (no reason to check back farther).

 

[turek420845]

Agreed. If we lost 56-27 or something like that, then I would be in the same boat as I'm in every year. We had a shot to win and were competitive most of the game. Usually, we get dominated and give up those same big plays. We definitely have our weaknesses and everyone knows it, but we also looked like we belonged on that field with Michigan. I couldn't say that previous years. The team had a fight in them that we don't ever see and they don't quit.

 

[Mr.Bojangles]

I am in the same camp as you.

Michigan had a decided talent edge, not just in the front 7 on defense, but also at RB. Haynes was the second rated RB in his class,
Marshall was #4 in his. You need elite talent in the second and third layer to stop explosives if those guys breakthrough into space.

Michigan has had between the 2nd and 4th rated recruiting classes in the conference the last six years (no reason to check back farther).

We'll to be fair on the 75 yard run he could have shit his pants and no one would have smelled it.

 

[herbsinator]

I know Fornelli is on our enemy list, but this graph tells the tale in my opinion. If we were average/above average in RZ efficiency Cincy game isn’t nearly as close and we win against Michigan. We clearly are in the upper tier in terms of moving the ball down the field.

 

[Bootleg11]

I know Fornelli is on our enemy list, but this graph tells the tale in my opinion. If we were average/above average in RZ efficiency Cincy game isn’t nearly as close and we win against Michigan. We clearly are in the upper tier in terms of moving the ball down the field.

Red zone is a huge problem for this team.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

Red zone is a huge problem for this team.

The play call on 2nd & 3 was baffling - may have changed the outcome. MSU will answer a lot of questions we have . Hope big red wins and we win 9+ this season. Gbr

 

[Tell_Sackett]

Red zone is a huge problem for this team.

It's because we can't run the ball when we need to or, we refuse to run the ball when we should. If we throw another fade pass on second down at the 3-yard line I'm going to have a coronary.

My biggest positive from the Michigan game was we didn't fold down 10-0 early. We did show some fight.

 

[Napkins]

They had a lot of chances to quit and didn’t. That kept us in the game with a chance at the end. Plenty to correct or improve but they look like a team that wants to win games.

 

[Cornicator]

The play call on 2nd & 3 was baffling - may have changed the outcome. MSU will answer a lot of questions we have . Hope big red wins and we win 9+ this season. Gbr

Agree 100%. I think we know where Nebraska sits Nationally after the Michigan game. Where this team can go in 2025 will be answered by the Sparty game.

The Huskers will likely be an 8 to 11 point favorite. Their ability to cover or do better will tell us a lot. As would a loss.