247 Preseason Top 7 In The West

[vailhusker]

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One week from now the Huskers will have the football on the tee in a game that drops right into the Big Ten standings without any warmup acts.

There are other Big Ten teams doing the same thing the next week, as you'll notice while wandering through these predictions of mine about who may end up where in the West Division.

It wasn't easy to separate the pack for me in these projections, and Nebraska's opening foe, Illinois, is as good an example as any in not really knowing what to expect in Year 1 of Bielema Ball in Champaign. So don't take these predictions as some thought a Husker team with everything to prove is going to have any kind of waltz next weekend.

What I'd say is the differences between second or third and at the bottom in this division could be quite minute. With that in mind, here's my best guesswork for how it might go down.

7. Illinois


Predicted Big Ten record 2-7

Crossovers: Maryland, at Penn State, Rutgers

Matchup with the Huskers: Aug. 28 in Champaign.

Fair over/under win total line for regular season: 4 1/2

Analyzing the map: The Illini have a chance to get off to a strong start with everyone watching Week Zero. Let's face it: They're thinking that Nebraska game is a big opportunity for them too, and it is. Their next two conference games are Maryland and Purdue, so it isn't beyond reason Illinois could be a thorn in the Husker side and start the first third of league play with a winning record. Two of the crossovers are games that might be deemed 'getable' even for a staff with a new head coach, considering the Illini return some good pieces on the O-line, veteran Brandon Peters at QB, and a good haul of returning super seniors in general. Don't take this division prediction of Illinois to be me thinking the Illini won't be a pest or more so this year, because I think they will be in this league even if the wins don't stack up immediately. It's the work-in-progress that will have to happen on a defense that I wonder most about.

6. Purdue

Predicted Big Ten record: 3-6

Crossovers: Michigan State, at Ohio State, Indiana

Matchup with the Huskers: at Nebraska, Oct. 30. The Boilermakers will be coming off games against Wisconsin and Cockeye the week before that.

Fair over/under win total line for regular season: 5

Analyzing the map: As fun as the Boilermakers can be on offense some weeks, with David Bell a consistent highlight reel, I don't like this schedule for the Boilermakers. The non-conference slate has some tricks to it to start with. Besides a game at Notre Dame, Purdue plays host to Oregon State in Week 1 in a game I suspect will be high scoring and quite entertaining. There's opportunity to get a jump in Big Ten play with Illinois and Minnesota coming to West Lafayette right off the bat. But Purdue gets Cockeye and Wisconsin back-to-back before visiting Lincoln. Then it's Crossover Central to finish the season, and the Spartans, Buckeyes and Hoosiers are pretty salty East Division draws for a team that will have to show it has more depth on defense than it has in the past.

5. Northwestern

Predicted Big Ten record: 4-5

Crossovers: Michigan State, Rutgers, at Michigan

Matchup with the Huskers: at Nebraska, Oct. 2. Northwestern plays Ohio the week before and has a bye the week after playing Nebraska.

Fair over/under win total line for regular season: 6

Analyzing the map: Northwestern's non-con schedule (at Duke might be the toughest game) allows the Wildcats the chance to stack some wins there. And the Wildcats are done a favor with the conference schedule. If they had last year's team, I'd say they'd be up there with Wisconsin as a favorite in the division. However, they lost a ton of production from the 2020 squad, including its QB and a season-ending injury to the scheduled starter at running back, Cam Porter. It's quite possible Pat Fitzgerald figures out how to win close games anyway, but his normally stingy defense returns lost many of its studs – from NFL corner Greg Newsome to reliable linebackers Paddy Fisher and Blake Gallagher, to pass rushing presence Eku Leota, who transferred to Auburn. You know how it goes with Northwestern: The Wildcats will be in tense affairs most weeks and it will dome down to a play here or play there that decides if it's a 5- or 6-win kind of team or a darkhorse. While Fitzgerald's teams have gone 10-3 in 2017, 9-5 in 2018, and 7-2 last year, there was a 3-9 sprinkled in during the last full season in 2019. I never take Northwestern's surprise factor ability lightly, but also don't think it's a great sign of disrespect to have the Wildcats here given the roster adjustments they're making. You won't have to wait long for some clues with Northwestern playing building Michigan State in Week 1. That'll be a good scouting report for Nebraska fans on two teams Scott Frost's program will see in the first half of the season.

4. Minnesota

Predicted Big Ten record: 4-5

Crossovers: Ohio State, Maryland, at Indiana

Matchup with the Huskers: Oct. 16 in Minneapolis. The Gophers have a bye week prior to playing Nebraska.

Fair over/under win total line for regular season: 6 1/2

Analyzing the map: Minnesota gets Ohio State right off the bat on Sept. 2, but I don't know that it's a bad deal to just that one out of the way. After that P.J. Fleck's team has a real chance to get on a roll and being 4-1 coming into the game with Nebraska isn't out of the question. Minnesota will have to win at Colorado and Purdue to do that. My prediction here is actually me going to my low end on Minnesota, a team I think could be sneaky dangerous in the West race and some days can see a path where the Gophers go 6-3. A couple swing games to me for Minnesota seem to be the contest against the Huskers and a trip to Indiana on Nov. 20, which is sandwiched between a trip Cockeye and finishing the year against Wisconsin. Like Nebraska, the Gophers have lost six in a row against Cockeye. That finish, with a tricky crossover schedule (Indiana must be recognized as a tougher draw this year), is why I have them slated where they are.

3. Nebraska

Predicted Big Ten record: 5-4

Crossovers: at Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State

Fair over/under win total line for regular season: 6 1/2

Analyzing the map: Is picking Nebraska third in the West a Homer-ific pick? Beat bias on full display? After all, the full Big Ten media had the Huskers fifth, and Scott Frost said that was fair enough until Nebraska earned back preseason fanfare. I'd say my pick is splitting the middle, since this Nebraska team feels like it has talent (and QB and defensive experience) to be a challenger to Wisconsin as much as anyone in the division, but a recent resume that says, 'Yeah, pick them fifth or sixth.' I don't think it's a Husker team with great room for error, and the turnover margin needs to swing Nebraska's way for only about the second time in a past decade's worth of seasons. But I'm pretty big on this defense, and will be surprised if the play on that side of the ball alone doesn't improve NU's win total in some regard from past seasons.

To get to at least the projected B1G record I have for them, they need to make hay early. Everyone knows that Illinois game is a monster in mood-setting for the season, but also the pursuit of bowl eligibility win total. The game at Michigan State on Sept. 25 feels much the same to me as NU goes into the heart of conference season. And then they need at least a split or better in those back-to-back home games against Northwestern and Michigan in early October. The Oct. 16 game at Minnesota will also, I think, be large in deciding which of those two teams might be a possible challenger not everyone is talking about. The road home will be tough. November features games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Cockeye. But, you know, the Huskers need to knock down the door against at least one of those last two here soon.

2. Cockeye

Predicted Big Ten record: 6-3

Crossovers: Indiana, at Maryland, Penn State

Matchup with Huskers: at Nebraska, Nov. 26. Cockeyes play Illinois the week before.

Fair over/under win total line for regular season: 8

Analyzing the map: The last time Cockeye didn't win at least eight games in a normal regular season is 2014, and the Cockeyes would have done it again in 2020, having gone 6-2 against Big Ten only foes. Their beginning schedule will tell a lot. A lot of folks are intrigued by that Sept. 11 non-con game at Cockeye State, but the Cockeyes play a preseason top-20 Indiana team the week before to start the season. If the Cockeyes go at least 2-1 in their crossover games (an Oct. 9 home game against Penn State will be large), they'll probably be in position to be in the chase until the end. They get the preseason benefit of the doubt more than others in this division because they've earned it, although I think Cockeye is a good example of a team where a line thin as floss be drawn between going 6-6 or 9-3.

1. Wisconsin

Predicted Big Ten record: 7-2

Crossovers: Penn State, Michigan, at Rutgers

Matchup with the Huskers: Nov. 20 in Madison. Wisconsin plays Northwestern the week before and at Minnesota the week after.

Fair over/under win total line for regular season: 9 1/2

Analyzing the map: The Badgers are getting a lot of benefit of the doubt after a disjointed 2020 season in which they finished 4-3 and sometimes looked downright miserable on offense. They had a stretch of three games where they scored only one touchdown each week in losses after dealing with a COVID-related crunch of their roster to start things. But you can usually set your watch to their defense being top 10, Wisconsin figuring out the running game, and now we see if Graham Mertz really has the goods. Their schedule, though, doesn't offer a slam dunk. Check out that Week 1 game. Yeah, Wisconsin hosts Penn State Week 1. And the Badgers play Notre Dame in non-con three weeks later. However, it becomes a slate that is quite manageable if the Badgers are clicking on the back half. And if Wisconsin does pocket a win over Penn State and then against Michigan on Oct. 2, the Badgers could allow themselves a little room to stub their toe along the line and still end up atop the division – which they have done six times in the last decade and in four of the seven seasons since the Big Ten divided into the East and West.

 

[turek420845]

 

[iruletheskool]

2 spots too low iyam

 

[Toe]

I don't think it's a Husker team with great room for error

Sums up my feelings. I think we've finally got the starters in place across the board to be a good team, with no real obvious positions of weakness, but the margin for error is razor-thin. Depth is questionable - a few key injuries could derail the season in a hurry. The other question in my mind is whether we're finally going to get some roster stability, particularly at WR, where way too many guys who should've been stars have bailed.

 

[lee_carvallo_12]

If they’ve fixed one thing and one thing only - TURNOVERS - I think they win 7 games. If they fixed two things - TO’s and Penalties- they might win 8 or 9.

 

[Poor_and_Stupid]

If they’ve fixed one thing and one thing only - TURNOVERS - I think they win 7 games. If they fixed two things - TO’s and Penalties- they might win 8 or 9.

We all know that’s too much ask now a days apparently.

 

[vailhusker]

Don't take it to the bank: Big Ten West predicted finish​

By MIKE SCHAEFER


My colleague Brian Christopherson dropped his Big ten West predictions this weekend and it drove me to do the same.

This is an interesting year in the division. Following a 2020 that’s difficult to make a lot of, every team returns with some pretty large question marks. And almost all the teams have a couple holes on the roster, making this yet again a year in which the West isn’t likely going to be competition for overall conference superiority.

Still it’s fun to try to figure out what this grouping will look like in December. Here’s one rarely ever correct analysts best guess.

No. 7 Northwestern

The Wildcats, who don’t resemble much of the team that won the division in 2020, open the season against Michigan State, before a relatively manageable non conference stretch. If Northwestern beats Michigan State and Duke, it’ll be undefeated when coming to Nebraska at the beginning of October. That’s a real possibility — though unlikely. The Wildcats have a bit of change on defense with players leaving or graduating, a new quarterback, a new running game and has generally been devoid of offensive difference makers.


It’s hard for me to see a good year for Northwestern, though a relatively light finish means they could be a more dangerous team at the end than the beginning.

No. 6 Purdue

The Boilermakers are a tough team to figure out. A couple years ago Purdue looked ready to announce itself as a real contender in the conference, not just a program that can make the occasional upset bid.

Instead there remains quarterback concerns, despite boasting of some of the top receivers in the conference, and the next time the Boilermakers have a running back to fear it’ll be the first time in ages for the program.

Then there’s the defense which has struggled for years. David Bell is great. I still think Brohm can coach, but it just doesn’t look like the corner got fully turned.

No. 5 Illinois

This is one spot where I might end up most wrong. I think this team has a fair amount of ability and a steady quarterback, with returning running backs. Illinois will be a better team than in recent seasons with Bret Bielema now as head coach.

I'll mostly be curious what the offense looks like out of the gate. Not expecting the spread or anything completely unique, but I don't look for things to be Wisconsin-lite either.

Not expecting a giant transformation, but wouldn’t surprise me to see a handful of wins for the Illini in conference play this season. Crossovers with Maryland and Rutgers could help.

No. 4 Cockeye

Here’s where things get difficult. In a common theme I like one piece of Cockeye’s team quite a bit with Tyler Goodson, who might be a bit of a breakout running back in the Big Ten and is the second best in the division as it stands before the season.

I just have no idea what to do with Spencer Petras. He wasn’t necessarily bad last season, but he averaged 6.3 yards per attempt. That’s really low and he completed only 57 percent of passes. That was with what I expected to be a better receiving corp too. Cockeye’s quarterback play has dropped without Nate Stanley and that makes executing the blueprint harder when you’re less dominant on the line of scrimmage.

The Cockeyes defense has been the hallmark of the last few years, but here again it feels like they’re in a more transitional year than the usual strong group. The Cockeyes will get some wins against the easier opponents, but comparable teams should have an edge.

No. 3 Nebraska

Honestly either Cockeye or Nebraska could be in this spot. And I’ll save the bulk of the Nebraska analysis for more this week, but this Huskers team is the most talented Frost has had and might have the second best defense in the division behind Wisconsin, or possibly even the best.

The Huskers will need it — at least until a few weeks in and we see if this offense can actually put up points or if Nebraska is going to have to learn to grind out wins — something the coaching staff hasn’t been willing to really do.

No. 2 Wisconsin

The real big deviation. This isn’t where the Badgers are lining up for most ballots, but I’ve got some reservations about just how good this offense can be. 2020 was a weird year. Graham Mertz looked incredible against Illinois. Then he progressively got worse as the season went until the Wake Forest game. Perhaps the real version of him is closer to the opener in Champaign, but that’s tough to believe given how he performed against the better defenses in the conference.

Why Mertz and how good he truly is matters to this conversation is Wisconsin doesn’t have its running situation completely finalized. The Badgers are a little more work in progress this year than most.

Wisconsin’s defense is expected to be rock solid again, but even then it doesn’t feel like the Badgers are as good as past iterations of the program.

No. 1 Minnesota

Once again I’m high on the Gophers. Minnesota starts with the unfortunate task of getting Ohio State, which for a defense that struggled mightily early last year, that’s rough. However this Buckeyes team has to figure out what it is whereas Minnesota largely knows what it wants to do on offense.

Minnesota is going to run behind its big offensive line. Then it’s going to hammer the play action pass. Tanner Morgan is a better quarterback when Minnesota gets to play from out front and if the Gophers do that they’re a more challenging team. Probably not with Ohio State, but the rest of the division, it’s going to be a bear.

Minnesota could lose to Ohio State and then possibly be favored in its next five conference games leading up to Cockeye. The Gophers have Purdue and Northwestern on the road in that stretch and Nebraska, Maryland and Northwestern all at home.

The season begins again in mid-November. Get two out of three against Cockeye, Indiana and Wisconsin — which sounds tougher than it actually is — and the Gophers are likely going to Indy and PJ Fleck will be the toast of the division.