2024-25 NCAA Tournament Bracketology/Bubble Watch

[PonyBoy]

I think 10-10 would avoid Dayton. 9-11 you're either not getting in or getting shipped to Dayton for the play-in game. It'd depend on what teams around us have done up to that point. Having a names like North Carolina and Indiana by us on the bubble also isn't ideal.

I'm not worried about Indiana. Head to head goes to us plus they're 20+ spots behind us in NET.

 

[Huskers4420]

I'm not worried about Indiana. Head to head goes to us plus they're 20+ spots behind us in NET.

They don’t look at head to head but you’re right about the NET.

 

[PonyBoy]

They don’t look at head to head but you’re right about the NET.

I believe this changes for 2025, or am I reading it wrong? See red bold below...

Resources
Committee members have a wide-range of observation, consultation and data resources available to them throughout the season and during selection week.

These resources provide the foundation for a thorough and educated process that is reinforced by the committee member’s discussion and deliberation.

Among the resources available to the committee are an extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and NABC regional advisory rankings; complete box scores and results, head-to-head results, results versus common opponents, imbalanced conference schedules and results, overall and non-conference strength of schedule, the quality of wins and losses, road record, player and coach availability and various computer metrics.

Each of the 12 committee members uses these various resources to form their own opinions, resulting in the committee’s consensus position on teams’ selection and seeding.

How the field of 68 DI men’s teams is picked for March Madness

The NCAA’s guide to how the 68 teams are chosen, seeded and bracketed for the Division I men's basketball tournament every season.

www.ncaa.com

 

[Huskers4420]

I believe this changes for 2025, or am I reading it wrong? See red bold below...

Resources
Committee members have a wide-range of observation, consultation and data resources available to them throughout the season and during selection week.

These resources provide the foundation for a thorough and educated process that is reinforced by the committee member’s discussion and deliberation.

Among the resources available to the committee are an extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and NABC regional advisory rankings; complete box scores and results, head-to-head results, results versus common opponents, imbalanced conference schedules and results, overall and non-conference strength of schedule, the quality of wins and losses, road record, player and coach availability and various computer metrics.

Each of the 12 committee members uses these various resources to form their own opinions, resulting in the committee’s consensus position on teams’ selection and seeding.

How the field of 68 DI men’s teams is picked for March Madness

The NCAA’s guide to how the 68 teams are chosen, seeded and bracketed for the Division I men's basketball tournament every season.

www.ncaa.com

Great find. The committee is always talking about whole body of work so that’s interesting that that’s clearly noted. Id think it’s naturally taken into consideration but less weight is placed on it. A team like Indiana could just argue that maybe if they played us at home the result would be in their favor so you couldn’t just bring that up as a sole reason. But their NET being significantly lower is a double whammy.

Either way just gotta keep winning.

 

[SlumpBuster]

@ #16 Oregon - L - Lost 3 of 4, prior to that they had 3 wins against PSU, OSU, Maryland that were all close. Not impossible to sneak out with a W, but this looks to be an L

The one thing that gives me hope here is they're not the best 3 point shooting team like the ones we struggle against. But it's on the road so we'll probably play like dog crap

 

[Ironwardog]

The one thing that gives me hope here is they're not the best 3 point shooting team like the ones we struggle against. But it's on the road so we'll probably play like dog crap

If they aren’t “the best three point shooting team” then that’s the kiss of death….15 or more threes @ 68%.

 

[SlumpBuster]

If they aren’t “the best three point shooting team” then that’s the kiss of death….15 or more threes @ 68%.

That's hard to argue with, especially on the road

 

[Tyneb23]

No chance we get in, we will be a #2 seed in the NIT tournament

 

[Red Finger]

No chance we get in, we will be a #2 seed in the NIT tournament

 

[Tyneb23]

 

[Red Finger]

View attachment 49507

 

[Seaofred92]

 

[HuskerGarrett]

 

[PonyBoy]

I'm hopeful to button this up before the Washington (Q2) game Wednesday, but I believe a 9-11 B1G record gets us dancing...

Currently
* 14-8 (4-7 B1G)
* 4-6 v Q1
* 2-1 v Q2
* 2-1 v Q3 (Rutgers dropped to Q3)
* 6-0 v Q4

Remaining
6 v Q1 (3 home, 3 away)
2 v Q2 (1 home, 1 away)
1 v Q3 (home)

Even if we go 3-0 against the Q2's & Q3, that gets us to 7 conference wins. Or, 2-1 and we're at 6 conference wins...

...which means 2 or 3 more Q1 wins guaranteed to get to 9 total (6-10 or 7-9 v Q1).

Currently
#16 non-conference RPI
#31 overall RPI
#79 non-conference SOS
#17 overall SOS

The above RPI/SOS is way better than a season ago. As would our Q1 record, which includes 2 road wins that we didn't have last season.

Our overall RPI & SOS shouldn't change much either way by the time the regular season ends.

 

[Seaofred92]

 

[SlumpBuster]

Win at Oregon and I'll think about it.

 

[SlumpBuster]

The one thing that gives me hope here is they're not the best 3 point shooting team like the ones we struggle against. But it's on the road so we'll probably play like dog crap

I thought we had a chance...but I was not confident on the road.

 

[iruletheskool]

 

[SlumpBuster]

 

[redzoner]

Nebraska: 14-8 (4-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: 19 (162) Q1(A): (3-5) NET (50)

Credit to Hoiberg and this team, as they stopped their 6 game losing streak with a massive win over Illinois at home and then followed that up with yet another massive win @ Oregon. Absolutely insane pivot after looking like they were in a freefall, but they’ve swung this thing back to the right side of the bubble, with 3 Q1(A) wins they should be solidly in right now, albeit somewhere around a 10 seed so not comfortable just yet. They leaned heavily on Brice Williams in these 2 games, and he responded by dropping 55 combined points on 44 shots, so it’s clear moving forward they’re going to ask him to carry them. They’ll need him, because they need to continue to stack wins, and they have great chances this week, with another road game @ Washington which is very winnable and then they host Ohio St. Another 2-0 week and things are very good, but given this team’s recent history it feels like an 0-2 week is just as likely, so this thing could go absolutely any direction right now.

Bubble Watch 2025 – II

It was a pretty wild week of upsets, with over half of the top 10 teams losing, but for the most part the teams down on the bubble were not the ones taking advantage. We saw teams like Northwestern…

fivestarbracketology.com