Are you out on Rhule?

BeerConsumer67 · 2025-11-29T12:46:15-0600

TampaBaySkers said:
Channeling my inner Cav

Key Pattern
Most coaches who start ~.500 in their first three seasons do not become long-term winners. Trends we consistently see:

1. If you don’t show a major jump by Year 3, you're unlikely to become elite.
Saban, Ferentz, Snyder all had Year 3 jumps (even if small).
Failed coaches usually didn’t.

2. Recruiting suffers after Year 2 if trajectory isn’t upward.
3. Culture problems show up by Year 3 and rarely reverse.
4. Administrations get impatient at big programs.
📊
✔️ Successful examples who started ~.500:

Nick Saban (MSU)

Bill Snyder

Kirk Ferentz
(Rare)

❌ Much more common outcome:
A coach starts ~.500 → never breaks through → fired by Year 4–5
Examples: Frost, Strong, Taggart, Butch Jones, Herm Edwards, etc.

Is this just some retarded AI? Butch jones literally had a year 3 jump. 7-6 to 9-4

TampaBaySkers · 2025-11-29T12:50:01-0600

BeerConsumer67 said:
Is this just some retarded AI? Butch jones literally had a year 3 jump. 7-6 to 9-4

He got the year three jump and still failed although I don’t think Nebraska would fire Rhule after back to back 9 win seasons even if followed by a four year win season

4.

Records: 5–7, 7–6, 9–4 → 21–17 (.553)
Had a slight bump but plateaued quickly.
Program collapsed again; fired in Year 5.

BeerConsumer67 · 2025-11-29T12:52:12-0600

Tonkasker said:
Matt Campbell would take the job and outperform Rhule without question

Lmao matt cambell would not take the job.

SlumpBuster · 2025-11-29T12:53:08-0600

TampaBaySkers said:
If Rhule can have multi 10+ win seasons he definitely earns a longer leash for rough seasons. Statistically speaking Rhule will be fired within a couple years.

Obviously he needs to do more next year.

But just to be clear, we would probably fire Kirk several times over his tenure.

Possibly after 01, probably after 07, probably after 14...

And probably after his racism scandal.

herbsinator · 2025-11-29T12:54:28-0600

SlumpBuster said:
Obviously he needs to do more next year.

But just to be clear, we would probably fire Kirk several times over his tenure.

Possibly after 01, probably after 07, probably after 14

View attachment 62983

Also, if we’re being realistic, any of the 8-9 win stretches could have done it too. (See, e.g. Bo Pelini)

BeerConsumer67 · 2025-11-29T12:56:50-0600

SlumpBuster said:
Obviously he needs to do more next year.

But just to be clear, we would probably fire Kirk several times over his tenure.

Possibly after 01, probably after 07, probably after 14...

View attachment 62983

And probably after his racism scandal.

Yep, this the biggest point that pisses me off with us losing to Cockeye. They are going to build a statue for a coach with similar success to Bo pelini.

TampaBaySkers · 2025-11-29T12:56:54-0600

SlumpBuster said:
Obviously he needs to do more next year.

But just to be clear, we would probably fire Kirk several times over his tenure.

Possibly after 01, probably after 07, probably after 14...

View attachment 62983

And probably after his racism scandal.

lol why? Rhule is .500 and we gave him an extension . Why would we fire KKKirk ?

herbsinator · 2025-11-29T12:57:40-0600

TampaBaySkers said:
lol why? Rhule is .500 and we gave him an extension . Why would we fire KKKirk ?

Have you paid attention to Husker football for the past 30 years?

TampaBaySkers · 2025-11-29T13:00:54-0600

herbsinator said:
Have you paid attention to Husker football for the past 30 years?

Yes - have you paid attention recently? We gave frost over four years and Rhule just got an extension . We obviously have lower standards than @herbies tranny gf. If Rhule won 10+ games the next three seasons he’d get a 20 year extension

SlumpBuster · 2025-11-29T13:01:18-0600

TampaBaySkers said:
lol why? Rhule is .500 and we gave him an extension . Why would we fire KKKirk ?

You're smarter than that aren't you?

Where you started matters. Hey coach having a .500 3-year stretch 8-12 years into his tenure is WAY different than when you took over a program in the dumpster.

And the third example didn't get better in year four. We absolutely would have fired him after that.

herbsinator · 2025-11-29T13:02:32-0600

TampaBaySkers said:
Yes - have you paid attention recently? We gave frost over four years and Rhule just got an extension . We obviously have lower standards than @herbies tranny gf. If Rhule won 10+ games the next three seasons he’d get a 20 year extension

Seems like you’re deliberately trying to
miss the point here

TampaBaySkers · 2025-11-29T13:09:08-0600

SlumpBuster said:
You're smarter than that aren't you?

Where you started matters. Hey coach having a .500 3-year stretch 8-12 years into his tenure is WAY different than when you took over a program in the dumpster.

And the third example didn't get better in year four. We absolutely would have fired him after that.

Maybe we would, maybe we wouldn’t . I think if Rhule won 10+ over the next three years he would be given a very long leash.

What’s you point anyway? That we should never fire Rhule no matter how bad he does bc a 11 win season could be the next one? Is there any scenario you would fire Rhule?

DrinkItIn · 2025-11-29T13:14:52-0600

Back-to-back bowl games, bitches! Lock up Rhule for the next 10 years!

But seriously, a little disappointed with the results in year 3.

herbsinator · 2025-11-29T13:23:07-0600

TampaBaySkers said:
Maybe we would, maybe we wouldn’t . I think if Rhule won 10+ over the next three years he would be given a very long leash.

What’s you point anyway? That we should never fire Rhule no matter how bad he does bc a 11 win season could be the next one? Is there any scenario you would fire Rhule?

The point is that there is value in some level of consistency. Cockeye is easily the best example of that.

I don’t think anyone is saying that we shouldn’t *ever* fire Rhule. But I don’t think you can argue that we haven’t made progress compared to where we were under Frost. Maybe not as much as you want, but there is at least some trend.

At a certain point, we all have to take a honest look at what’s happened over the past 30 years. We can keep doing what we’ve always done and just further slide into irrelevance. Since Solich was fired we’ve only made one hire that was a clear upgrade over the prior one (Pelini). And we still fucking fired his ass.

Mavsker · 2025-11-29T13:28:40-0600

I love the sudden shift of respect for Kirk Ferentz now that he's waxxed Rhule's ass 3 years in a row, with the hardest waxxing year 3 in Lincoln

"We'd have fired Kirk if he'd coached here, so give Rhule some time and hopefully he can become our Kirk Ferentz"

KILL ME

Tonkasker · 2025-11-29T13:42:20-0600

BeerConsumer67 said:
Lmao matt cambell would not take the job.

Matt Campbell had to cut his roster’s pay this year. He will not be at Cockeye state in three years

BeerConsumer67 · 2025-11-29T13:43:28-0600

Tonkasker said:
Matt Campbell had to cut his roster’s pay this year. He will not be at Cockeye state in three years

He won’t, but he also won’t be at nebraksa lol.

SlumpBuster · 2025-11-29T13:54:50-0600

TampaBaySkers said:
Maybe we would, maybe we wouldn’t . I think if Rhule won 10+ over the next three years he would be given a very long leash.

What’s you point anyway? That we should never fire Rhule no matter how bad he does bc a 11 win season could be the next one? Is there any scenario you would fire Rhule?

Just the counter point to your AI post. Sometimes after .500 it could get better.

It probably won't but it could.

But the reality is almost every coaching hire ever has a less than 20% chance of working out long term. Maybe less than 10%.

herbsinator · 2025-11-29T13:59:25-0600

Mavsker said:
I love the sudden shift of respect for Kirk Ferentz now that he's waxxed Rhule's ass 3 years in a row, with the hardest waxxing year 3 in Lincoln

"We'd have fired Kirk if he'd coached here, so give Rhule some time and hopefully he can become our Kirk Ferentz"

KILL ME

They’ve beat us 10 out of 11 years FYI. Maybe it’s time to face some hard facts.

king_kong_ · 2025-11-29T14:01:32-0600

herbsinator said:
They’ve beat us 10 out of 11 years FYI. Maybe it’s time to face some hard facts.

Correct.

The hard fact: little Matt Rhule is a soft bitch in addition to being a putrid coach.

We don’t need to lower our standards (what you are embarrassingly suggesting).

We need to spin the wheel again and again until we hit on a winner.

Are you out on Rhule?

Welcome to tPB!

Are you out on Rhule?

Are you out

In

Out

I'd rather root for Cockeye

Bench Warmer

Key Pattern​

1. If you don’t show a major jump by Year 3, you're unlikely to become elite.​

2. Recruiting suffers after Year 2 if trajectory isn’t upward.​

3. Culture problems show up by Year 3 and rarely reverse.​

4. Administrations get impatient at big programs.​

📊​

✔️ Successful examples who started ~.500:​

❌ Much more common outcome:​

Offensive Coordinator

4.​

Bench Warmer

Running Back

Quarterback

Bench Warmer

Offensive Coordinator

Quarterback

Offensive Coordinator

Running Back

Quarterback

Offensive Coordinator

Wide Receiver

Quarterback

Big Ten referee

Running Back

Bench Warmer

Running Back

Quarterback

Cornerback

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Key Pattern

1. If you don’t show a major jump by Year 3, you're unlikely to become elite.

2. Recruiting suffers after Year 2 if trajectory isn’t upward.

3. Culture problems show up by Year 3 and rarely reverse.

4. Administrations get impatient at big programs.

📊

✔️ Successful examples who started ~.500:

❌ Much more common outcome:

4.