Seaofred92 said:

Circa opens NU -4 on Saturday

Click to expand...

LoudHogRider said:

TeraPEENS

Click to expand...

Snapshot (through Oct 5)​

• Records: Nebraska 4–1 (1–1); Maryland 4–1 (1–1). Huskers+1
• Kick/time/TV: 3:30 ET at SECU Stadium, BTN. UMTerps
• Market right now: spread hovering Nebraska –6 to –6.5, total ~50.5 (range varies by book). Action Network+1

Team form & real stats (5-game sample)​

Nebraska (through Oct 5, official PDF)​

• Scoring: 42.4 PPG (212 total); opponents 16.2. Google Cloud Storage
• Offense: 449.4 yds/g (6.5 ypp) — 320.2 pass yds/g (13 TD, 2 INT) at 76.1% comp, 129.2 rush yds/g. Google Cloud Storage
• Defense: allows 247.4 yds/g — 91.8 pass yds/g (!), 155.6 rush yds/g; opp 3rd-down 22% (14/64). Google Cloud Storage
• Pressure & red zone notes: 10 sacks for; 15 sacks allowed; red-zone TD rate 59% (16/27). Google Cloud Storage
• Key individuals: QB Dylan Raiola 1,331 yds, 12 TD, 2 INT (74.2%); RB Emmett Johnson 474 rush yds, 7 TD; WR Jacory Barney Jr. 348 yds, 3 TD. Google Cloud Storage+1

Maryland (through Oct 5, official team page)​

• Scoring: 30.0 PPG; opponents 13.4. UMTerps
• Offense: 349.6 yds/g (5.2 ypp) — 256.4 pass yds/g, 93.2 rush yds/g (3.3 per rush). UMTerps
• Defense: allows 318.4 yds/g; opponents 221.6 pass yds/g and 96.8 rush yds/g. 19 sacks generated in 5 games; 9 INTs. UMTerps
• 3rd-down: Offense 36.5% (27/74); defense 28.1% allowed (23/82). UMTerps
• QB/skill: Malik Washington 1,257 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT; top targets Shaleak Knotts (5 TD) and Octavian Smith Jr.. UMTerps
• Recent result: Blew a 20–0 lead vs Washington, lost 24–20 on Oct 4 → now 4–1. Testudo Times+1

Matchup edges (what actually moves the needle)​

1. Nebraska pass O vs Maryland pass D
   
   • Nebraska’s aerial game is rolling (320.2 yds/g, 9.1 YPA), but Maryland counters with real ball production: 19 sacks + 9 INTs already. Nebraska’s line has allowed 15 sacks, so pressure is Maryland’s path to kills on drives. Net: Nebraska still +EV through the air, but expect some negative plays. Google Cloud Storage+1
2. Maryland rush O vs Nebraska rush D
   
   • Nebraska’s soft spot is run defense (155.6 rush yds/g at 4.5 per carry allowed), but Maryland’s run game has been meh (93.2 yds/g, 3.3 per carry). If the Terps can’t run, they’re forced into Nebraska’s defensive strength (elite pass suppression). Net: tilt toward Nebraska because Maryland likely can’t exploit the Huskers’ rush D enough. Google Cloud Storage+1
3. 3rd-down / hidden yards
   
   • Nebraska defense is erasing 3rd downs (22% allowed). Maryland’s offense sits 36.5%; that’s a tough math problem for sustained drives. Nebraska also flips field with strong punt return value (14.9 avg) and great defensive INT rate. Google Cloud Storage+1
4. Situational factors
   
   • Home field to Maryland (≈ +1 to +1.5 pts).
   • Schedule form: both off conference games; Maryland’s collapse vs UW may linger or sharpen focus.
   • Weather: check late, but baseline October conditions in College Park rarely brutal; if windy/rainy, it suppresses Nebraska’s biggest edge (downfield passing). (Kick window/time verified on Maryland site.) UMTerps

Price check vs “fair” number​

• Market: Nebraska –6 to –6.5; O/U ~50.5. Action Network+1
• My fair (after 5 games): Nebraska –7.5 to –8.5, Total 52–55. Rationale: Nebraska’s passing efficiency + 3rd-down defense > Maryland’s pass rush/ball skills; Maryland’s run game likely insufficient to keep NEB off script.

Predicted game flow​

• Early: Nebraska tests vertically; Maryland answers with quick game and shots to Knotts/Smith, leaning on pressure/turnovers to get short fields.
• Middle: If Terps can’t run, their 3rd-and-mediums meet Nebraska’s 3rd-down defense; drives stall.
• Late: Nebraska’s depth/efficiency creates a 2-score cushion unless they lose turnover battle by 2+.

Betting angles (if you’re playing it)​

• Side: Small-to-moderate lean Nebraska –6 (–6.5 acceptable) given fair ~–8.
• Total: Over 50.5 leans positive unless wind/rain forecast worsens.
• Derivatives:
  
  • Nebraska team total Over (model ~28.5–30.5).
  • 1H Nebraska if you expect scripted deep shots before Maryland’s pressure packages fully settle.
• Risk flags: Maryland’s sacks + INTs can swing variance; if they hit a +2 turnover day, they can flip the script. UMTerps