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Dana Holgerson Offense - What do we need?

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Dana Holgerson Offense - What do we need?

Herbie said:
How
Click to expand...
x-men origins wolverine GIF
 
...TrueColors... said:
Group A is filled out now with Hunter, Barney, and Key. I’d project this group to account for 2200 yards through the air and that’s really not a stretch. Their 2024 numbers look like this:

Key - 47 catches for 715
Barney - 52 catches for 431
Hunter - 40 catches for 578

Group B is a work in progress, but I’m not sure you need to go portaling for that group anymore.
Click to expand...
I prefer Bonner, Nelson, or Lloyd to be that group B. I believe in Lloyd after how he played at the back half of the year and want him to get a real shot.
 
BorWhiskey said:
I prefer Bonner, Nelson, or Lloyd to be that group B. I believe in Lloyd after how he played at the back half of the year and want him to get a real shot.
Click to expand...

herbsinator said:
Mills has a shot to be in the discussion as well.
Click to expand...

There exists a world where Satterfield was so bad at this that Lloyd’s lack of production is tied to him. It’s not a stretch to project Lloyd to catch 400-500 yards in 2025. For reference, he was at 250 the last two years.

Weve got roughly 1400 yards receiving returning from the current roster. Add the 3 transfers and we’re at 3100 yards receiving returning.

We aren’t going to be hurting for offensive production in 2025. It’s all on the roster. And this is before we factor in Mills and Mozee who will most certainly have opportunities.
 

...TrueColors... said:
Hi guys -

I’ve been thinking a ton about Holgerson’s offense and what we need in order to make it work. It’s obvious he’s got the QB he wants and the most talented one he’s ever had. But what else?

For this exercise I used his 2018 offense that had Will Grier throw for 3800 yards en route to a 4th place finish in the Heisman race. I know; very lofty. But let’s have fun and break down how we get to 3800 yards:

WRs - They come in 3 categories in Holgerson’s offense.

A) 3 guys that catch 700+ yards
B) 1 guy who catches 3-500 yards
C) Everyone else

For this exercise, let’s assume we get Dane Key and can project him in Group A. Let’s also assume we can project Barney to Group A. So the reality is here we need one portal WR (if Key is here) that needs to be a day 1 dude that catches 50 passes for 700-900 yards. This is Jamal Banks level production if you do the math on what he did when Dana took over.

Group B? I feel that you can project a few guys that are on campus now to this group along with guys we signed on Wednesday.

Group C? This is where we can throw the Quinn Clarks and the Keelan Smiths of the world.

Bottom line is I don’t feel comfortable projecting anyone to that top group but Barney and Key (if he’s here). So these are the guys we need.

TE - We need one guy to catch 25-30 passes for around 350-400.

Good news here is that these guys are on campus.

RB - This is where it gets very tough. You need around 3-500 yards receiving from these two And about 2000 yards rushing from this group.

Without EJ, these guys simply aren’t here. This has to have your attention as Dowdell really isn’t a back that’s going to catch out of the backfield and I don’t feel comfortable projecting a true freshman in Parker to give you this either. Dowdell could probably fulfill his rushing quota. But we need two other guys that are going to have to account for another 1000 yards and that’s if you project Dowdell to get to 1k next year.

Where we really need to spend money here is on two WRs including Dane Key and probably two backs that are also healthy Big Ten contributors.

I know most of this isn’t ground breaking stuff. But why I did this is to see just how far away we could be from a top 15 offense next year. The answer is 4 guys, 3 if we can keep EJ.

Now, if we don’t get those 4 we aren’t doomed. But life gets a ton easier to see how this offense will come together if we can add two WRs and two RBs. The good news here is that those guys should be in the portal. We’ve got to come ready to spend some money on them.
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ABSOLUTELY NOT AN “I WAS RIGHT POST” because let’s be honest, we still don’t know.

Let’s take a way too early look at the numbers:

Group A:

Hunter - 10catches for 147
Key - 9 catches for 89
Barney - 12 catches for 159

Through two weeks, can we see these guys each catching 700 yards? Key is the only one behind the pace and I feel like he’ll have a game or two where he breaks out and catches 100 yards. When I say he’s behind, he’s 60 yards behind the pace.

Group B

I feel it’s fair to say this group is still emerging. Can Mozee keep up this pace?

Lindenmeyer - 8 catches for 91 yards
Mozee - 4 catches for 64 yards
Clark - 2 catches for 44

Group C

I also feel this one is still emerging.

Mills - 2/20
EJ - 9/34
Nelson - 3/52

Where Id say we are behind is I feel Key needs a few more catches. Which I expect he will get. I also don’t know about groups B & C.

What say you all?
 
I always felt like your projections were very high and unrealistic, so the fact that groups B and C are already under pace isn’t a surprise.
 
Blakejc said:
I always felt like your projections were very high and unrealistic, so the fact that groups B and C are already under pace isn’t a surprise.
Click to expand...

Group B and C are on pace for 1800 yards. If you pair that with the pace of Group A, you’ll end over 4100 yards for a 12 game schedule.

From the macro, everything is on pace and exceeding pace.

From the micro, Key is the only one really behind. Also looking from the micro though, you have to ask how sustainable Nelson’s production is. I don’t project him to catch 25 yards a game. And can we rely on Quinn Clark to get us 20 a game?
 
...TrueColors... said:
Holgerson ran 72.5 plays a game that year at WVU. 37 pass 35 run.

We ran 68 plays against Wisconsin. I think that’s probably the target for the offense.
Click to expand...

We are pretty much right here at the total number of plays per game.

We are definitely heavier on the pass. I’d probably chalk that up to 1) Do you really want to take the ball out of Dylan’s hands that much? 2) I’m not sure we wanna run our stable of backs in the 35-38 range at the moment.
 
...TrueColors... said:
ABSOLUTELY NOT AN “I WAS RIGHT POST” because let’s be honest, we still don’t know.

Let’s take a way too early look at the numbers:

Group A:

Hunter - 10catches for 147
Key - 9 catches for 89
Barney - 12 catches for 159

Through two weeks, can we see these guys each catching 700 yards? Key is the only one behind the pace and I feel like he’ll have a game or two where he breaks out and catches 100 yards. When I say he’s behind, he’s 60 yards behind the pace.

Group B

I feel it’s fair to say this group is still emerging. Can Mozee keep up this pace?

Lindenmeyer - 8 catches for 91 yards
Mozee - 4 catches for 64 yards
Clark - 2 catches for 44

Group C

I also feel this one is still emerging.

Mills - 2/20
EJ - 9/34
Nelson - 3/52

Where Id say we are behind is I feel Key needs a few more catches. Which I expect he will get. I also don’t know about groups B & C.

What say you all?
Click to expand...
Dude knows how to call an offense. I don't think we did anything super complicated, but like the good ones, he knows how to disguise the action and build off the concept. We spent a large portion of the game beating them over the head with IZ/split zone concepts. Good for about 4 TDs off the top of my head, let alone other big plays.

I am expecting Hunter and Barney to continue to lead in yardage. Both are very good in the open field and YAC will carry. Key plays a bit of an underrated role in the offense. Seems to be the go to in the red zone, spot routes/zone beaters, and 3rd down conversions. I think he will definitely have his games (probably against high level opponents where we have to grind it out a bit more), but expect he's going to be more of a Chris Carter type for us.

Feel good about Lindemeyer for your Group B guy. Really impressive stuff for guy who was perceived as a blocking TE. Clark has my attention. Dude moved different on his TD catch, especially considering he's 6'5". Also expect we will see a lot more production out of EJ in the passing game and expect at least one 100 rush, 100 receiving game.

Holgs' use of the RB in the passing game is incredible and sure seems like a good way to bring young and two talented RBs along quicker. Definitely v interested in what we do with that split back set going forward.
 
...TrueColors... said:
Group B and C are on pace for 1800 yards. If you pair that with the pace of Group A, you’ll end over 4100 yards for a 12 game schedule.

From the macro, everything is on pace and exceeding pace.

From the micro, Key is the only one really behind. Also looking from the micro though, you have to ask how sustainable Nelson’s production is. I don’t project him to catch 25 yards a game. And can we rely on Quinn Clark to get us 20 a game?
Click to expand...

I know you know it’s early, but you were projecting 500yds/game, which i just don’t think is a realistic expectation. For reference:

...TrueColors... said:
WRs - They come in 3 categories in Holgerson’s offense.

A) 3 guys that catch 700+ yards
B) 1 guy who catches 3-500 yards
C) Everyone else

TE - We need one guy to catch 25-30 passes for around 350-400.

RB - This is where it gets very tough. You need around 3-500 yards receiving from these two And about 2000 yards rushing from this group.
Click to expand...

I’m not sure how you quantify group C, but A+B is 2400-2600 yards. Let’s call it 3000 yards from WR. Correct me if I’m overstating your projections.

For TE you’ve got 400. RB you’ve got 400.

That’d be 3800 yards passing not counting miscellaneous yards from other TE, WR, RB.

It’s safe to say you were projecting 4000 yards passing. That’s A LOT. Especially when combined with wanting 2000 yards rushing.

So 500yds/game is the goal/expectation. To put that into context Nebraska’s past two years:

2024 - 353yds/game
2023 - 312yds/game

Further context….

B10 leader in offense YPG
2024 - Oregon/USC - 437ypg
2023 - Ohio State - 407ypg
2022 - Ohio State - 490ypg
2021 - Ohio state - 561ypg (next closest 447)

So I mean, 500 is doable, but it hasn’t happened since 2021 and that OSU offense was unreal.

I know where you based the numbers off, but West Virginia in a weak conference with a heisman candidate QB is not a good comp.

Our goal should be 425yds/game. Anything more is gravy.
 
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