Will we get the NCAA tournament monkey off of our backs? (1 Viewer)

HCFord1 · Mar 19, 2024

Baron Winnebago said:
What's A&M path to winning? All I've really got is that they brutalize us on the offensive glass and have a bunch of second chances opportunities + Nebraska is cold shooting

That's how they made it through the SEC tourney, along with getting to the free throw line.

Second chance points by game:

21 against Ole Miss
26! against Kentucky (+18 points off turnovers)
22 against Florida in a loss (Florida had to shoot 50% from the field and make 14 threes to win this game by 5 points)

Free throws per game:

27/37 (73%) vs. Ole Miss
22/30 (73%) vs. Kentucky
26/32 (81%) vs. Florida

Remember when it felt like Illinois shot an unreasonable number of free throws against us in the semis? They only had 26 attempts; A&M averaged 7 attempts more than that per game in the SEC tourney.

My concern is that we get dominated on the offensive glass, commit a gazillion fouls, and then start chucking up desperation three pointers while we try to play catch up with a small lineup. The key to avoiding that will be to keep Garcia from getting offensive boards. He's basically their Allick, meaning he doesn't try to do much on offense but will be an effort guy trying to play defense and working the glass. I assume we'll have Allick on him, so we'll need him to bring the energy which typically isn't an issue. From a size perspective he should match up fine as well.

Our guards will need to play clean. No need to get crazy with hand checking and no need to ever foul one of their shooters. If we make A&M actually earn their points from the field then we will win this game.

...TrueColors... · Mar 19, 2024

Husker_in_OK said:
If we can limit their offensive rebounding, I think we win. It's amazing to me how a team that's not that big, leads the nation in offensive rebounding ..

There will be stretches of game on Friday where we have 4 guys on the floor that are all just as tall or taller than their biggest guy.

Baron Winnebago · Mar 19, 2024

HCFord1 said:
That's how they made it through the SEC tourney, along with getting to the free throw line.

Second chance points by game:

21 against Ole Miss

26! against Kentucky (+18 points off turnovers)

22 against Florida in a loss (Florida had to shoot 50% from the field and make 14 threes to win this game by 5 points)

Free throws per game:

27/37 (73%) vs. Ole Miss

22/30 (73%) vs. Kentucky

26/32 (81%) vs. Florida

Remember when it felt like Illinois shot an unreasonable number of free throws against us in the semis? They only had 26 attempts; A&M averaged 7 attempts more than that per game in the SEC tourney.

My concern is that we get dominated on the offensive glass, commit a gazillion fouls, and then start chucking up desperation three pointers while we try to play catch up with a small lineup. The key to avoiding that will be to keep Garcia from getting offensive boards. He's basically their Allick, meaning he doesn't try to do much on offense but will be an effort guy trying to play defense and working the glass. I assume we'll have Allick on him, so we'll need him to bring the energy which typically isn't an issue. From a size perspective he should match up fine as well.

Our guards will need to play clean. No need to get crazy with hand checking and no need to ever foul one of their shooters. If we make A&M actually earn their points from the field then we will win this game.

This is good shit

Seaofred92 · Mar 19, 2024

Nebraska needs to block out. If you remember the game at Rutgers, we gave up 25 (!!) offensive rebounds to them, leading to them out rebounding Nebraska by 14 boards, shooting 12 more shots, and ultimately winning as a result.

IF (and it’s a big if) Nebraska puts bodies on players to keep the rebounding margin essentially even, we should be able to eventually outscore them. But if we do a classic Nebraska thing where we just stand and look at the rim waiting for the ball, TAMU will go around us and get boards to score.

In a sense, TAMU and UH are great opponents to play back to back. Very similar scouting reports and sized teams, UH just does what TAMU does on a totally different level. One game at a time but if NU plays TAMU well and wins the game then that bodes well for a R32 game also.

2010sarenevercoming · Mar 19, 2024

HCFord1 said:
That's how they made it through the SEC tourney, along with getting to the free throw line.

Second chance points by game:

21 against Ole Miss

26! against Kentucky (+18 points off turnovers)

22 against Florida in a loss (Florida had to shoot 50% from the field and make 14 threes to win this game by 5 points)

Free throws per game:

27/37 (73%) vs. Ole Miss

22/30 (73%) vs. Kentucky

26/32 (81%) vs. Florida

Remember when it felt like Illinois shot an unreasonable number of free throws against us in the semis? They only had 26 attempts; A&M averaged 7 attempts more than that per game in the SEC tourney.

My concern is that we get dominated on the offensive glass, commit a gazillion fouls, and then start chucking up desperation three pointers while we try to play catch up with a small lineup. The key to avoiding that will be to keep Garcia from getting offensive boards. He's basically their Allick, meaning he doesn't try to do much on offense but will be an effort guy trying to play defense and working the glass. I assume we'll have Allick on him, so we'll need him to bring the energy which typically isn't an issue. From a size perspective he should match up fine as well.

Our guards will need to play clean. No need to get crazy with hand checking and no need to ever foul one of their shooters. If we make A&M actually earn their points from the field then we will win this game.

Seaofred92 said:
Nebraska needs to block out. If you remember the game at Rutgers, we gave up 25 (!!) offensive rebounds to them, leading to them out rebounding Nebraska by 14 boards, shooting 12 more shots, and ultimately winning as a result.

IF (and it’s a big if) Nebraska puts bodies on players to keep the rebounding margin essentially even, we should be able to eventually outscore them. But if we do a classic Nebraska thing where we just stand and look at the rim waiting for the ball, TAMU will go around us and get boards to score.

In a sense, TAMU and UH are great opponents to play back to back. Very similar scouting reports and sized teams, UH just does what TAMU does on a totally different level. One game at a time but if NU plays TAMU well and wins the game then that bodes well for a R32 game also.

These are very good breakdowns, but I think the key to the game is ultimately going to be whether or not we're able to score more points than them. If we do, I like our chances a lot.

Baron Winnebago · Mar 19, 2024

2010sarenevercoming said:
These are very good breakdowns, but I think the key to the game is ultimately going to be whether or not we're able to score more points than them. If we do, I like our chances a lot.

This is both a rudimentary take and one that is absolutely correct. We want to avoid a rock fight

slattimer · Mar 19, 2024

Them being one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country is what worries me.

Seaofred92 · Mar 19, 2024

Black Dean · Mar 19, 2024

78-64 A&M

Frogsker30 · Mar 19, 2024

Black Dean said:
78-64 A&M

Shut up Benedict Turd Alberts

Baron Winnebago · Mar 19, 2024

Frogsker30 said:
Shut up Benedict Turd Alberts

@Black Dean only wears Sweater vest November to March and crushes white zin in his skinny jeans

HCFord1 · Mar 19, 2024

Seaofred92 said:

I watched some of their game against Florida and basically all they do is yolo to the rim and try to get fouled or kick out for a 3 point attempt. I mean Illinois had a ton of success doing that against us but Aggie doesn't have Terry Shannon.

Kaladin · Mar 19, 2024

2010sarenevercoming said:
These are very good breakdowns, but I think the key to the game is ultimately going to be whether or not we're able to score more points than them. If we do, I like our chances a lot.

Kaladin · Mar 19, 2024

Black Dean said:
78-64 A&M

Wow you might be worse than Dean

BIGSTICK67 · Mar 19, 2024

Kaladin said:
Wow you might be worse than Dean

He is Dean. He's just the black version.

Kaladin · Mar 19, 2024

BIGSTICK67 said:
He is Dean. He's just the black version.

Toe · Mar 19, 2024

CybrrMonky71 · Mar 19, 2024

Seaofred92 said:
Nebraska needs to block out. If you remember the game at Rutgers, we gave up 25 (!!) offensive rebounds to them, leading to them out rebounding Nebraska by 14 boards, shooting 12 more shots, and ultimately winning as a result.

IF (and it’s a big if) Nebraska puts bodies on players to keep the rebounding margin essentially even, we should be able to eventually outscore them. But if we do a classic Nebraska thing where we just stand and look at the rim waiting for the ball, TAMU will go around us and get boards to score.

In a sense, TAMU and UH are great opponents to play back to back. Very similar scouting reports and sized teams, UH just does what TAMU does on a totally different level. One game at a time but if NU plays TAMU well and wins the game then that bodes well for a R32 game also.

The Big10 allows murder to occur in the paint. Rutgers got all those rebounds bc they were straight up shanking our guys in the lane. Remember how bloodied Mast was from that game
They have worked extensively on rebounding. Game won’t be called like a big10 game.
aTm would need to catch a massive heater to beat us. I don’t think they shoot or defend well enough to beat us. Their PG will be the quickest we’ve seen (other than Tyson Walker of MSU)
This might be a good comp. A faster, worse coached version of Mich St
It’s an excellent matchup for us. I don’t think their quickness will be a major issue bc we are a very good defensive team & our movement on offense will wear them out. Keisei will wear out whoever is chasing him but we need to ensure we can hide Keisei on defense so he’s not exposed 1 on 1. We shouldn’t have to worry about someone taking advantage of him on the perimeter bc nobody they have shoots the 3 consistently. That is usually where our 3 point defense broke down
Throw out aTms last 5 games & it’s not even a question we win easily
aTm was expected to be really good this yr but really underperformed. Recently they have played much better but I’m just not convinced the SEC is that serious about playing defense. There are some freaky big & athletic teams in the SEC. But aTm isn’t one of them. They aren’t anything special other than the quick PG

stonesak · Mar 19, 2024

2010sarenevercoming said:
These are very good breakdowns, but I think the key to the game is ultimately going to be whether or not we're able to score more points than them. If we do, I like our chances a lot.

What do the analytics say? I'm very curious about the correlation of scoring more points than your opponent vs winning percentage.

Jim14510 · Mar 19, 2024

herbsinator said:
My proprietary algorithm predicts a 30-40 point Husker win here

I got 37.9 so your algorithm must be accurate.

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Will we get the NCAA tournament monkey off of our backs? (1 Viewer)

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