Nebrasketball: Quad breakdown + odds to dance ** Updated 1/5/26 **

[NEHusker54]

When I first looked at this “top 7 seed” braketology, and how he mentioned Nebraska I got a little upset as I didn’t see us in the top 7……..Took me a minute to realize he used a different graphic than what I’m used to seeing lol.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

View attachment 64866

 

[Seaofred92]

 

[Seaofred92]

Give me the 2 line NOW

 

[V-Doub]

Yeah that makes no sense.

The only thing I can think of is just the usual it takes a while for KP to start getting more accurate

I’ve heard people say KenPom isn’t the most accurate the 1st half of the season, but becomes more accurate the more data it has. Never really done any follow up on that, but that’s what I’ve heard.

 

[V-Doub]

I’m gonna need a pair of depends for selection Sunday… Cause I’m gonna jizz my jorts if we end up a 2 seed. Shpladoosh! 💦

 

[ThankGODforWVB]

I’ve heard people say KenPom isn’t the most accurate the 1st half of the season, but becomes more accurate the more data it has. Never really done any follow up on that, but that’s what I’ve heard.

Check out what Nolan is putting out right now. Never really thought of them as a basketball source but they are doing a really good job with a lot of different analysis.

Conference RPI - 2026 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2026 Men's College Basketball Conference RPI (Rating Percentage Index): A Ranking of Every Conference Based on the Average RPI of the Teams in Each Conference

www.warrennolan.com

 

[king_kong_]

Yeah that makes no sense.

The only thing I can think of is just the usual it takes a while for KP to start getting more accurate

Kenpom has a program strength metric that is historic as part of the formula (tourney performance, etc)

That’s what’s hurting us at the moment

 

[TheXHerb]

Maryland tied for last in the conference is also wild to me. It’s like we stole their soul.

 

[Interloper]

Maryland tied for last in the conference is also wild to me. It’s like we stole their soul.

Yeah, Len Bias has to be spinning in his grave over the state that program is in.

 

[djw004]

Pony - as always, one of the most impressive threads of the year, thank you.

But you could’ve just said “Boys - we are a fucking 1 seed” and saved a lot of work #BasketballSchool

 

[Cornicator]

Yeah, Len Bias has to be spinning in his grave over the state that program is in.

No that's just the residual impact of the cocaine.

 

[Interloper]

No that's just the residual impact of the cocaine.

Being a Celtics fan at the time I was in shock for a few days, what a waste.

 

[PonyBoy]

- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance
- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed

As 12/21/25 results (12-0)

This week we went 1-0, 1 win against Q4 North Dakota. Currently #11 in NET...

Q1 = 1-0; Illinois
Q2 = 5-0; Kansas State, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Pickle Smoochers (was Q3 last week), Wisconsin
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop
Q4 = 5-0; FIU, USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, Maryland Eastern Shore
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Dec - New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
All 3 Quad changes improved by 1 quad. Changes likely for another 3-4 weeks.

Spoiler: prior week info

As 12/14/25 results (11-0)

This week we went 2-0, 1 win each in Q1 & Q2. Currently #14 in NET...

Q1 = 1-0; Illinois
Q2 = 4-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State, Wisconsin
Q3 = 2-0; Winthrop, crayton
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Dec - North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q3), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
All 4 Quad changes dropped down 1 quad. And will likely change

Spoiler: prior week info

12/8/25 results
Q1 = 0-0
Q2 = 3-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; crayton, Winthrop
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games
Dec - Wisconsin (Q2), @ Illinois (Q1), North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q1), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q2), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)

January is absolutely brutal with 5 road games and 4 of them Q1's.

We need 12 wins, between now & the last regular season game. Let the countdown begin...

(Yes, I'll eventually do a breakdown in groups of 4 games, like the last 2 seasons)

As of 1/4/26 results (14-0, 3-0)

This week we went 2-0; 1 win against Q1 Michigan State & Q4 New Hampshire. Currently remain #11 in NET...

Net positive - gained 2 Q1 wins (Sparty, Sooners)
Net negative - none (FIU & Winthrop flipped quads)

Q1 = 3-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Oklahoma (was Q2 last week)
Q2 = 4-0; Pickle Smoochers, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Kansas State
Q3 = 1-0; FIU (was Q4 last week)
Q4 = 6-0; Winthrop (was Q3 last week), USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, New Hampshire, UMES
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
No quad changes with future opponents this week

Spoiler: week of 12/21 update

As 12/21/25 results (12-0)

This week we went 1-0, 1 win against Q4 North Dakota. Currently #11 in NET...

Q1 = 1-0; Illinois
Q2 = 5-0; Kansas State, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Pickle Smoochers (was Q3 last week), Wisconsin
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop
Q4 = 5-0; FIU, USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, Maryland Eastern Shore
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Dec - New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
All 3 Quad changes improved by 1 quad. Changes likely for another 3-4 weeks.

Spoiler: prior week info

12/8/25 results
Q1 = 0-0
Q2 = 3-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; crayton, Winthrop
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games
Dec - Wisconsin (Q2), @ Illinois (Q1), North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q1), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q2), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)

January is absolutely brutal with 5 road games and 4 of them Q1's.

We need 12 wins, between now & the last regular season game. Let the countdown begin...

(Yes, I'll eventually do a breakdown in groups of 4 games, like the last 2 seasons)

 

[Seaofred92]

Can you even imagine

 

[TalaricoHusker]

Can you even imagine

That would be so fricken awesome if this came true!!

 

[COYS]

We are up to four quad 1 wins now.

Our non-con wins are getting better each week with New Mexico, Pickle Smoochers, Oklahoma all performing well as of late.

 

[V-Doub]

Can you even imagine

 

[TheXHerb]

Can you even imagine

This has to be to get clicks right? I mean...come on....a 1 seed?

 

[Goskers07]

This has to be to get clicks right? I mean...come on....a 1 seed?

We are undefeated halfway through the season. Is it really that far fetched to project right now?