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Big 10 has a history of being rapey and pedophily though too
Michigan State and Penn State come to mind
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Breaking USC & UCLAbia Joining BIG 10
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Michigan State and Penn State come to mind
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Ohio State wrasslin program as well.
College Conference Expansion, Realignment Scenarios. What Each League Should Do, What Will Happen?
College Conference Expansion, Realignment Scenarios. What Each League Should Do, What Will Happen?
collegefootballnews.com
College Conference Expansion, Realignment Scenarios. What Each League Should Do, What Will Happen?
by Pete Fiutak, CollegeFootballNews.com
Really? You want to make sense of all the expansion and realignment in college sports?
Good luck with that.
Even the most connected of college football insiders are trying to put together the shredded papers to create a clear picture as all the rumors, reports, and tidbits fly around. So read this at your own risk – there’s a solid chance this all blows up five minutes from now.
I’m prepared for everything below to soon look totally ridiculous because nothing appears to be off the table.
The Big 12 getting Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF was obvious, but seriously, Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC? Last summer that seemed insane, and then it hit like a ton of bricks. That was nothing compared to the failure of imagination – and the shock – of USC and UCLAbia to the Big Ten.
And how about the Sun Belt being the most proactive league of the bunch with Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss being snagged from Conference USA?
So be warned, while everything below is rooted in reality to some extent … nah. It’s all changing by the moment.
With all that said, what’s going on in realignment? What are the best and worst case scenarios for all the conference expansion options, what’s a crazy idea that might work for each one, and what’s about to happen – maybe?
Let’s do this.
ACC
What's Going on?
Nothing at the moment, but the rumors are flying. The SEC is supposedly interested, and the Big Ten isn't saying anything -- but would LOVE North Carolina. Even so, everything appears to be fine.....for now.
Best Case Scenario
The ACC vastly improves its long-term media deal, ends its friends-with-benefits relationship with Notre Dame and puts a ring on it, and gives some thought to West Virginia joining the fun.
Worst Case Scenario
ESPN -- or some crafty lawyer -- figures out how to blow up the horrible grant of rights deal that locks the schools into their football media deal until 2036, and the SEC and Big Ten have an epic battle to see who can get North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami.
Crazy Ideal That Won't Work, But.....
....READ....THE.....ROOM. What did the Big Ten just do? It raided the Pac-12 to go coast-to-coast with its footprint. Who might be out there right now for the taking? Cal and Stanford.
Again, it's crazy, but academically those two are rock stars, they make it very, very attractive for Notre Dame to join the fun, and even though college football interest is, well, fickle in the Bay Area, it's still a monster of a market to totally own.
What Will Probably Happen
The ACC will stay in place as is, but that won't keep everyone from trying to figure out how to steal the star schools. It'll be in discussions with the Big 12 and Pac-12 to try forming an alliance to combat the Big Ten and SEC menaces. In the meantime, it'll look to improve the current media deal and won't just sit by and wait for the inevitable defections from schools desperate to leave for more revenue.
==========================
AMERICAN
What's Going on?
The conference is losing Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF to the Big 12 next year, and it's bringing aboard Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA from Conference USA in 2023.
Best Case Scenario
The remaining strong members -- Memphis, SMU, and USF -- are locked in for longer term deals, and it keeps on adding parts by going to the Mountain West, or anywhere else. More on that in a moment.
Worst Case Scenario
The Big 12 decides it wants to keep on going and steal Memphis and SMU, and someone figures out that USF is a massive school in a big media market.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
....Go push the footprint by going after the Mountain West. At least give it a shot with Colorado State, Air Force and Boise State.
What Will Probably Happen
The expansion talk likely stalls for a bit and the conference should be okay for now. Temple, Tulane and USF make sense in a slew of ways -- good-sized schools in good media markets -- for other leagues, but the Power Five is going after the bigger fish.
==========================
BIG TEN
What's Going on?
The Big Ten will add USC and UCLAbia in 2024. There’s a strong wind blowing that Oregon and Washington are in play, but the Big Ten says it’s not looking to do anything else at the moment. Notre Dame is in the discussion, but that’s harder than it might seem.
Best Case Scenario
The Big Ten flexes its muscles and keeps on going. Oregon and Washington are in, Notre Dame joins the fun, and the conference pays whatever it takes to get North Carolina.
Worst Case Scenario
The SEC gets to the prime ACC powerhouses before the Big Ten, and if that doesn’t work, it wakes up in time to realize they can and should make Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and Arizona State an offer they can’t refuse.
Crazy Ideal That Won't Work, But.....
.......
Go make Texas realize it’s really a Big Ten school and that life in the SEC won’t be any fun. Now that the Big Ten has USC and UCLAbia, not getting Texas seems even more of a misfire than it did when the SEC announced it landed the richest program in college sports. The Big Ten can be very persuasive.
What Will Probably Happen
The Big Ten will say it’s not expanding and is just fine at 16, and then it might just bring on two Pac-12 schools to make everything just a little easier on USC and UCLAbia. Remember, the Big Ten is all about big schools, big markets, world-class universities, and expanding areas for the Big Ten Network. Arizona State, Colorado, Missouri – there’s nothing off the table at this point.
==========================
BIG 12
What's Going On?
It's still alive. Rumors of the Big 12's demise after the loss of Texas and Oklahoma were premature. Now it's bringing aboard BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF to go along with -- most likely -- Texas and Oklahoma for one more season before they leave for the SEC to create a 14-team conference in 2023.
Best Case Scenario
It finds a way to take over Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah from the Pac-12, and it wakes up and realizes USF locks down a big Florida market to go along with UCF.
Worst Case Scenario
The Pac-12 gets its sh-tuff together and goes and gets Kansas, Oklahoma State and takes on BYU before the fun gets started. The ACC decides it actually wants Cincinnati, Houston and UCF and makes a last-ditch pitch.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
.....Make Texas and Oklahoma realize they're already home. Make the conference stronger with some of the Pac-12 programs, and sweeten everything up to keep the two anchor tenants in the mall. Whatever it takes, find a way to keep these two.
What Will Probably Happen
The Big 12 might have to get ready to play more defense than it thinks. For all the talk about acquiring Pac-12 schools, there's just as big a possibility that the reverse happens -- and/or the Big Ten decides Kansas works for them. This is a ruthless situation, but the Big 12 will try to create a tie with the Pac-12 and/or ACC -- all while thinking about trying to figure out how to expand with some of their schools.
==========================
CONFERENCE USA
What's Going On?
It's losing Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA to the American Athletic Conference next year, and it lost the fight to keep Marshall, Old Dominion and Southern Mississippi -- all three bolted for the Sun Belt this season. For 2023, C-USA is adding Jacksonville State, Liberty, New Mexico State and Sam Houston State.
Best Case Scenario
C-USA is somehow able to form a partnership with the Sun Belt or the MAC, it doesn't lose any more schools, and the new programs coming in bring a big school energy that makes everything fun.
Worst Case Scenario
C-USA loses Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky to the Sun Belt or the MAC in the near future, and/or the other conferences pull away and get so strong that this is the new WAC.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
......Align with the Mountain West. It seems too obvious that the top Mountain West schools will get picked off, and coming up with a national conference product -- you know, like a conference for the USA -- that goes from Miami to Hawaii would be interesting.
What Will Probably Happen
It's going to be a rough run. It's just a question of time before other conferences -- watch out for the MAC -- are able to offer the top remaining schools something strong, and Conference USA will struggle to make a splash.
==========================
INDEPENDENTS
What's Going On?
BYU is off to the Big 12 next year. Liberty and New Mexico State will go to Conference USA, and Notre Dame is going to......that's the big question.
Best Case Scenario
It doesn't matter because they're independent schools, but overall, it would be a plus for Army if it could make its way into the American Athletic Conference, and UConn and UMass might need to play well with others in the MAC or C-USA -- even though UConn bolted from the AAC a few years ago and UMass left the MAC after 2015.
Worst Case Scenario
There's a shot the big conferences go more to in-league games and squeeze out the paycheck options for the smaller independents.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
......Army makes a big push to be a part of the Big 12. The league landed a national brand in BYU, and getting Army could create a fun weekly buzz for the conference that's missing a whole lot of brand name sizzle.
What Will Probably Happen
Outside of Notre Dame, it's going to be tough to remain an independent. The media deals and alliances -- even for the lower conferences -- are going to be too strong to overcome.
==========================
MAC
What's Going On?
A whole lot of nothing, but that might need to change soon. There aren't any brands that make sense for the other Group of Five conferences, so the hope is.....
Best Case Scenario
.....all 12 schools stay in place, the conference is able to land Army for a big name who'll bring the attention, and a few parts from Conference USA -- Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech might work -- to strengthen the position.
Worst Case Scenario
The Big Ten and SEC become too strong, and the other three Power Five conferences figure out how to combine forces. The MAC doesn't become the WAC, but it struggles to stay up in the FBS status all while losing their desperately needed paycheck dates.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But....
....Create an alliance with the Big Ten. No, the MAC doesn't become a minor league farm system -- even though that's really what it might be like in a new college football era -- but it comes up with a deal that its teams are on various Big Ten schedules to collect road game paychecks.
What Will Probably Happen
The MAC schools should be okay for a while. There's a shot Conference USA or the Sun Belt makes a pitch -- Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan and Buffalo are big schools -- but for now, everything seems to be calm.
==========================
MOUNTAIN WEST
What's Going On?
Welcome to the calm before the storm. There are enough schools in place to keep the Mountain West going if a few of the stars are gone, but these are shaky times for a league that appears ripe for the picking by a desperate Pac-12.
Best Case Scenario
The Mountain West figures out a stronger media deal, the lack of Tier 1 research/AAU status for most of the league's most attractive schools matter to the Pac-12 and Big 12, and everything stays in place. A few more additions are made just in case.
Worst Case Scenario
Fresno State, San Diego State and UNLV are off to the Pac-12 and Boise State off to the Pac-12 or the Big 12 -- probably the Big 12 -- and Colorado State gets the big pitch from the Big 12, too.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
......If the Big Ten and Big 12 steal -- let's say Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon and Washington, be ready to pounce with an attractive media deal for Oregon State and Washington State to give them an option out of the mortally wounded Pac-12. Of course, Oregon State and Washington State want the Power Five life, but if the Pac-12 is just a shell of its former self, give it a shot.
What Will Probably Happen
The Mountain West survived after losing BYU, TCU and Utah, and it's going to stay alive no matter what's coming. However, it might be rough depending on how quickly the Pac-12 can get its ducks in a row.
==========================
PAC-12
What's Going On?
All hands on deck. The crazy part about losing USC and UCLAbia to the Big Ten is that those two haven't done a whole lot in the championship race lately -- there's only one Pac-12 football championship between them over the last 13 years -- but losing both Los Angeles schools is obviously devastating. Now it's all about figuring out how to put a fence around the remaining schools while acquiring enough decent new markets to take a little sting out of what just happened.
Best Case Scenario
All of the remaining schools in the 2024 version of the Pac-10 stay home. The powers-that-be crate a solid new media deal that makes everyone happy, there's a real alliance with at least one of the other Power Five conferences, and a few new additions make everyone relax a wee bit.
Worst Case Scenario
Oregon and Washington really are gone to the Big Ten, Arizona and Arizona State really are gone to the Big 12, and Colorado is off to the Big Ten or Big 12. The league becomes a sad shadow of its former self.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
......What's the one almost literal Hail Mary that could ease the pain of losing USC and UCLAbia? Notre Dame. The relationship with the Big Ten has SO many egos and moving parts, the ACC hasn't been able to get this done, and the SEC.....nah. Notre Dame fits the Pac-12 in a whole lot of ways. Make that happen, get a few schools from the Mountain West, and this might be salvaged.
What Will Probably Happen
How fast can the Pac-12 move to fix this? Crank up the media deal NOW -- that's in the works -- try becoming besties with the Big 12 and/or ACC in some sort of real alignment that keeps everyone from hitting on each other's members, and if it can chill on the Tier 1 research status, San Diego State and UNLV make sense market-wise, and......
.....it's panic time. It's all about the media deal. Oregon, Washington, Arizona and Arizona State need to know they're not on a leaking raft.
==========================
SEC
What's Going On?
The SEC got all this going by shocking the college sports world landing Texas and Oklahoma last year. Those two are supposed to come aboard in 2024, but the league would love to get them earlier. The rumors are flying that Clemson, Florida State and Miami might be on the table, but....nah, at least not yet.
Best Case Scenario
The Big Ten really doesn't have something else funky up its sleeve -- like Oregon and Washington, and it can't close the deal with Notre Dame -- and ESPN is able to rework the ACC's media deal. The SEC lands North Carolina and Virginia, and okay, it grabs Clemson, Florida State and Miami, just because.
Worst Case Scenario
There's no reworking the ACC media deals, the Big Ten gets even stronger with more giant acquisitions, and in a strange twist, all of a sudden Texas and/or Oklahoma start to get chilly feet and make this a bit bumpy before joining.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
......Oregon and Washington. NOW. If the Big Ten can got get USC and UCLAbia, why can't the SEC expand to get new markets with the two big schools from the Pacific Northwest? And why can't Arizona and Arizona State work, and what about Utah, or Colorado or Kansas?
What Will Probably Happen
The SEC will keep working on the ACC, but it'll be more than fine for now with 16 teams with Texas and Oklahoma joining the fun. With that said, there's no way it's going to sit still after the Big Ten just took over Los Angeles and now totally dominates the nation's top media markets.
==========================
SUN BELT
What's Going On?
One of the biggest movers and shakers in the expansion and realignment game, the Sun Belt won a big fight to get Marshall, Old Dominion and Southern Mississippi from Conference USA and it added James Madison from the FCS ranks.
Best Case Scenario
The league gets even stronger with a few more moves. It pries away Florida International, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky from C-USA, locks in the current members, and the league's branding goes up a whole other level.
Worst Case Scenario
The Sun Belt needle doesn't move with the new acquisitions. Worse yet, the American Athletic Conference starts sniffing around and the rumors start flying that a Marshall or Appalachian State or Coastal Carolina or Louisiana-Lafayette might do just fine.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But......
......It forms an alliance with the American and/or Mountain West. The MAC could be right there for the deal, and C-USA would LOVE to be a part of anything, but coming up with a plan to work with the AAC and Mountain West would be the big play for even more legitimacy.
What Will Probably Happen
The Sun Belt will keep on working. The league did an amazing job of proactively having everything in place to make a huge move to get a whole lot stronger, and it's going to keep pushing.
by Pete Fiutak, CollegeFootballNews.com
Really? You want to make sense of all the expansion and realignment in college sports?
Good luck with that.
Even the most connected of college football insiders are trying to put together the shredded papers to create a clear picture as all the rumors, reports, and tidbits fly around. So read this at your own risk – there’s a solid chance this all blows up five minutes from now.
I’m prepared for everything below to soon look totally ridiculous because nothing appears to be off the table.
The Big 12 getting Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF was obvious, but seriously, Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC? Last summer that seemed insane, and then it hit like a ton of bricks. That was nothing compared to the failure of imagination – and the shock – of USC and UCLAbia to the Big Ten.
And how about the Sun Belt being the most proactive league of the bunch with Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss being snagged from Conference USA?
So be warned, while everything below is rooted in reality to some extent … nah. It’s all changing by the moment.
With all that said, what’s going on in realignment? What are the best and worst case scenarios for all the conference expansion options, what’s a crazy idea that might work for each one, and what’s about to happen – maybe?
Let’s do this.
ACC
What's Going on?
Nothing at the moment, but the rumors are flying. The SEC is supposedly interested, and the Big Ten isn't saying anything -- but would LOVE North Carolina. Even so, everything appears to be fine.....for now.
Best Case Scenario
The ACC vastly improves its long-term media deal, ends its friends-with-benefits relationship with Notre Dame and puts a ring on it, and gives some thought to West Virginia joining the fun.
Worst Case Scenario
ESPN -- or some crafty lawyer -- figures out how to blow up the horrible grant of rights deal that locks the schools into their football media deal until 2036, and the SEC and Big Ten have an epic battle to see who can get North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami.
Crazy Ideal That Won't Work, But.....
....READ....THE.....ROOM. What did the Big Ten just do? It raided the Pac-12 to go coast-to-coast with its footprint. Who might be out there right now for the taking? Cal and Stanford.
Again, it's crazy, but academically those two are rock stars, they make it very, very attractive for Notre Dame to join the fun, and even though college football interest is, well, fickle in the Bay Area, it's still a monster of a market to totally own.
What Will Probably Happen
The ACC will stay in place as is, but that won't keep everyone from trying to figure out how to steal the star schools. It'll be in discussions with the Big 12 and Pac-12 to try forming an alliance to combat the Big Ten and SEC menaces. In the meantime, it'll look to improve the current media deal and won't just sit by and wait for the inevitable defections from schools desperate to leave for more revenue.
==========================
AMERICAN
What's Going on?
The conference is losing Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF to the Big 12 next year, and it's bringing aboard Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA from Conference USA in 2023.
Best Case Scenario
The remaining strong members -- Memphis, SMU, and USF -- are locked in for longer term deals, and it keeps on adding parts by going to the Mountain West, or anywhere else. More on that in a moment.
Worst Case Scenario
The Big 12 decides it wants to keep on going and steal Memphis and SMU, and someone figures out that USF is a massive school in a big media market.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
....Go push the footprint by going after the Mountain West. At least give it a shot with Colorado State, Air Force and Boise State.
What Will Probably Happen
The expansion talk likely stalls for a bit and the conference should be okay for now. Temple, Tulane and USF make sense in a slew of ways -- good-sized schools in good media markets -- for other leagues, but the Power Five is going after the bigger fish.
==========================
BIG TEN
What's Going on?
The Big Ten will add USC and UCLAbia in 2024. There’s a strong wind blowing that Oregon and Washington are in play, but the Big Ten says it’s not looking to do anything else at the moment. Notre Dame is in the discussion, but that’s harder than it might seem.
Best Case Scenario
The Big Ten flexes its muscles and keeps on going. Oregon and Washington are in, Notre Dame joins the fun, and the conference pays whatever it takes to get North Carolina.
Worst Case Scenario
The SEC gets to the prime ACC powerhouses before the Big Ten, and if that doesn’t work, it wakes up in time to realize they can and should make Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and Arizona State an offer they can’t refuse.
Crazy Ideal That Won't Work, But.....
.......
Go make Texas realize it’s really a Big Ten school and that life in the SEC won’t be any fun. Now that the Big Ten has USC and UCLAbia, not getting Texas seems even more of a misfire than it did when the SEC announced it landed the richest program in college sports. The Big Ten can be very persuasive.
What Will Probably Happen
The Big Ten will say it’s not expanding and is just fine at 16, and then it might just bring on two Pac-12 schools to make everything just a little easier on USC and UCLAbia. Remember, the Big Ten is all about big schools, big markets, world-class universities, and expanding areas for the Big Ten Network. Arizona State, Colorado, Missouri – there’s nothing off the table at this point.
==========================
BIG 12
What's Going On?
It's still alive. Rumors of the Big 12's demise after the loss of Texas and Oklahoma were premature. Now it's bringing aboard BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF to go along with -- most likely -- Texas and Oklahoma for one more season before they leave for the SEC to create a 14-team conference in 2023.
Best Case Scenario
It finds a way to take over Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah from the Pac-12, and it wakes up and realizes USF locks down a big Florida market to go along with UCF.
Worst Case Scenario
The Pac-12 gets its sh-tuff together and goes and gets Kansas, Oklahoma State and takes on BYU before the fun gets started. The ACC decides it actually wants Cincinnati, Houston and UCF and makes a last-ditch pitch.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
.....Make Texas and Oklahoma realize they're already home. Make the conference stronger with some of the Pac-12 programs, and sweeten everything up to keep the two anchor tenants in the mall. Whatever it takes, find a way to keep these two.
What Will Probably Happen
The Big 12 might have to get ready to play more defense than it thinks. For all the talk about acquiring Pac-12 schools, there's just as big a possibility that the reverse happens -- and/or the Big Ten decides Kansas works for them. This is a ruthless situation, but the Big 12 will try to create a tie with the Pac-12 and/or ACC -- all while thinking about trying to figure out how to expand with some of their schools.
==========================
CONFERENCE USA
What's Going On?
It's losing Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA to the American Athletic Conference next year, and it lost the fight to keep Marshall, Old Dominion and Southern Mississippi -- all three bolted for the Sun Belt this season. For 2023, C-USA is adding Jacksonville State, Liberty, New Mexico State and Sam Houston State.
Best Case Scenario
C-USA is somehow able to form a partnership with the Sun Belt or the MAC, it doesn't lose any more schools, and the new programs coming in bring a big school energy that makes everything fun.
Worst Case Scenario
C-USA loses Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky to the Sun Belt or the MAC in the near future, and/or the other conferences pull away and get so strong that this is the new WAC.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
......Align with the Mountain West. It seems too obvious that the top Mountain West schools will get picked off, and coming up with a national conference product -- you know, like a conference for the USA -- that goes from Miami to Hawaii would be interesting.
What Will Probably Happen
It's going to be a rough run. It's just a question of time before other conferences -- watch out for the MAC -- are able to offer the top remaining schools something strong, and Conference USA will struggle to make a splash.
==========================
INDEPENDENTS
What's Going On?
BYU is off to the Big 12 next year. Liberty and New Mexico State will go to Conference USA, and Notre Dame is going to......that's the big question.
Best Case Scenario
It doesn't matter because they're independent schools, but overall, it would be a plus for Army if it could make its way into the American Athletic Conference, and UConn and UMass might need to play well with others in the MAC or C-USA -- even though UConn bolted from the AAC a few years ago and UMass left the MAC after 2015.
Worst Case Scenario
There's a shot the big conferences go more to in-league games and squeeze out the paycheck options for the smaller independents.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
......Army makes a big push to be a part of the Big 12. The league landed a national brand in BYU, and getting Army could create a fun weekly buzz for the conference that's missing a whole lot of brand name sizzle.
What Will Probably Happen
Outside of Notre Dame, it's going to be tough to remain an independent. The media deals and alliances -- even for the lower conferences -- are going to be too strong to overcome.
==========================
MAC
What's Going On?
A whole lot of nothing, but that might need to change soon. There aren't any brands that make sense for the other Group of Five conferences, so the hope is.....
Best Case Scenario
.....all 12 schools stay in place, the conference is able to land Army for a big name who'll bring the attention, and a few parts from Conference USA -- Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech might work -- to strengthen the position.
Worst Case Scenario
The Big Ten and SEC become too strong, and the other three Power Five conferences figure out how to combine forces. The MAC doesn't become the WAC, but it struggles to stay up in the FBS status all while losing their desperately needed paycheck dates.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But....
....Create an alliance with the Big Ten. No, the MAC doesn't become a minor league farm system -- even though that's really what it might be like in a new college football era -- but it comes up with a deal that its teams are on various Big Ten schedules to collect road game paychecks.
What Will Probably Happen
The MAC schools should be okay for a while. There's a shot Conference USA or the Sun Belt makes a pitch -- Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan and Buffalo are big schools -- but for now, everything seems to be calm.
==========================
MOUNTAIN WEST
What's Going On?
Welcome to the calm before the storm. There are enough schools in place to keep the Mountain West going if a few of the stars are gone, but these are shaky times for a league that appears ripe for the picking by a desperate Pac-12.
Best Case Scenario
The Mountain West figures out a stronger media deal, the lack of Tier 1 research/AAU status for most of the league's most attractive schools matter to the Pac-12 and Big 12, and everything stays in place. A few more additions are made just in case.
Worst Case Scenario
Fresno State, San Diego State and UNLV are off to the Pac-12 and Boise State off to the Pac-12 or the Big 12 -- probably the Big 12 -- and Colorado State gets the big pitch from the Big 12, too.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
......If the Big Ten and Big 12 steal -- let's say Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon and Washington, be ready to pounce with an attractive media deal for Oregon State and Washington State to give them an option out of the mortally wounded Pac-12. Of course, Oregon State and Washington State want the Power Five life, but if the Pac-12 is just a shell of its former self, give it a shot.
What Will Probably Happen
The Mountain West survived after losing BYU, TCU and Utah, and it's going to stay alive no matter what's coming. However, it might be rough depending on how quickly the Pac-12 can get its ducks in a row.
==========================
PAC-12
What's Going On?
All hands on deck. The crazy part about losing USC and UCLAbia to the Big Ten is that those two haven't done a whole lot in the championship race lately -- there's only one Pac-12 football championship between them over the last 13 years -- but losing both Los Angeles schools is obviously devastating. Now it's all about figuring out how to put a fence around the remaining schools while acquiring enough decent new markets to take a little sting out of what just happened.
Best Case Scenario
All of the remaining schools in the 2024 version of the Pac-10 stay home. The powers-that-be crate a solid new media deal that makes everyone happy, there's a real alliance with at least one of the other Power Five conferences, and a few new additions make everyone relax a wee bit.
Worst Case Scenario
Oregon and Washington really are gone to the Big Ten, Arizona and Arizona State really are gone to the Big 12, and Colorado is off to the Big Ten or Big 12. The league becomes a sad shadow of its former self.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
......What's the one almost literal Hail Mary that could ease the pain of losing USC and UCLAbia? Notre Dame. The relationship with the Big Ten has SO many egos and moving parts, the ACC hasn't been able to get this done, and the SEC.....nah. Notre Dame fits the Pac-12 in a whole lot of ways. Make that happen, get a few schools from the Mountain West, and this might be salvaged.
What Will Probably Happen
How fast can the Pac-12 move to fix this? Crank up the media deal NOW -- that's in the works -- try becoming besties with the Big 12 and/or ACC in some sort of real alignment that keeps everyone from hitting on each other's members, and if it can chill on the Tier 1 research status, San Diego State and UNLV make sense market-wise, and......
.....it's panic time. It's all about the media deal. Oregon, Washington, Arizona and Arizona State need to know they're not on a leaking raft.
==========================
SEC
What's Going On?
The SEC got all this going by shocking the college sports world landing Texas and Oklahoma last year. Those two are supposed to come aboard in 2024, but the league would love to get them earlier. The rumors are flying that Clemson, Florida State and Miami might be on the table, but....nah, at least not yet.
Best Case Scenario
The Big Ten really doesn't have something else funky up its sleeve -- like Oregon and Washington, and it can't close the deal with Notre Dame -- and ESPN is able to rework the ACC's media deal. The SEC lands North Carolina and Virginia, and okay, it grabs Clemson, Florida State and Miami, just because.
Worst Case Scenario
There's no reworking the ACC media deals, the Big Ten gets even stronger with more giant acquisitions, and in a strange twist, all of a sudden Texas and/or Oklahoma start to get chilly feet and make this a bit bumpy before joining.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But.....
......Oregon and Washington. NOW. If the Big Ten can got get USC and UCLAbia, why can't the SEC expand to get new markets with the two big schools from the Pacific Northwest? And why can't Arizona and Arizona State work, and what about Utah, or Colorado or Kansas?
What Will Probably Happen
The SEC will keep working on the ACC, but it'll be more than fine for now with 16 teams with Texas and Oklahoma joining the fun. With that said, there's no way it's going to sit still after the Big Ten just took over Los Angeles and now totally dominates the nation's top media markets.
==========================
SUN BELT
What's Going On?
One of the biggest movers and shakers in the expansion and realignment game, the Sun Belt won a big fight to get Marshall, Old Dominion and Southern Mississippi from Conference USA and it added James Madison from the FCS ranks.
Best Case Scenario
The league gets even stronger with a few more moves. It pries away Florida International, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky from C-USA, locks in the current members, and the league's branding goes up a whole other level.
Worst Case Scenario
The Sun Belt needle doesn't move with the new acquisitions. Worse yet, the American Athletic Conference starts sniffing around and the rumors start flying that a Marshall or Appalachian State or Coastal Carolina or Louisiana-Lafayette might do just fine.
Crazy Idea That Won't Work, But......
......It forms an alliance with the American and/or Mountain West. The MAC could be right there for the deal, and C-USA would LOVE to be a part of anything, but coming up with a plan to work with the AAC and Mountain West would be the big play for even more legitimacy.
What Will Probably Happen
The Sun Belt will keep on working. The league did an amazing job of proactively having everything in place to make a huge move to get a whole lot stronger, and it's going to keep pushing.
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I don’t buy either the BIG or SEC are done.
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Not when there’s this much $$$ left on the table.
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- 18,218
Plus Brando said Frost is the next Saban. I can’t trust his sources.
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B1G East loves butt stuff. Baylor would have to prove they are into ass play to be accepted.
At this point, and additional school has to bring in almost $100 million more in revenue by themselves to make it financially worthwhile for the other league members. Notre Dame is about the only school capable of doing that.
A combination of Florida State/Clemson/UNC might do it.
Would consolidating the valuable market increase the value of those programs through a bid war to lock down a deal with the B1G? I wonder if traditional evaluations of programs can be used in a world where there are only two conferences worth a damn. Seems like networks will overpay to not be left out.
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- 46,481
News: B1G and Pac, Sunday Ticket, MNF team and more
Recapping recent developments in Pac-12 and Big Ten media rights negotiations. Plus: an update on NFL Sunday Ticket rights.
www.sportsmediawatch.com
Pac-12 future hinges on ESPN deal; Big Ten to get richer
The Pac-12 is in the midst of an exclusive 30-day negotiating window with incumbent rights partners ESPN and Fox Sports, but only the former is expected to bid on the rights, according to reporter John Canzano. The conference moved up its rights negotiations earlier this month in the wake of USC and UCLAbia's pending departures to the Big Ten. Per the San Jose Mercury-News -- which broke the news of USC and UCLAbia's move -- the Pac-12 could take months to determine its next steps in the event that its rights hit the open market.
Meanwhile, the additions of USC and UCLAbia could drive up the Big Ten's rights fees as much as 25 percent compared to what the conference would have otherwise garnered, Front Office Sports reported this week. Per Sports Business Journal, ESPN and NBC are among the companies that have become "more aggressive" in bidding on the conference's rights in the wake of the move, joining CBS and Amazon as realistic bidders. Apple, which was said to have rekindled its talks with the Big Ten last week, is no loner a contender.
A potential deal between NBC and the Big Ten could result in Notre Dame joining the conference, radio host Dan Patrick reported on his eponymous show Friday.
Rights fees for NFL Sunday Ticket could rise to as high as $3 billion per year, effectively pricing out ESPN and leaving Amazon and Apple as the only bidders, the industry website Puck reported Thursday. The league is not expected to entertain putting Sunday Ticket on its new streaming service. Apple is considered the favorite, per the report.
Stewart Mandel, among others, think the Pac-12 and Big 12 should just full-on merge
theathletic.com
How a Pac-12/Big 12 conference merger would play football
Here's how to organize and schedule a Big 12/Pac-12 merged conference. Looks pretty good!
theathletic.com
Here's how a Pac-12/Big 12 combo conference would play football
by Stewart Mandel, The Athletic
At his first conference media days this week, new Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark declared "the Big 12 s open for business." Conference realignment is normally a clandestine operation, but Yormark all but advertised that he's proactively pursuing potential expansion candidates.
It's no great secret who he's likely courting: Pac-12 schools Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah.
It would be understandable if some or all of that group is panicking in the wake of USC and UCLAbia's recent defections. But it's not obvious they'd be improving their lot by joining the post-Texas/Oklahoma Big 12. While that conference has stabilized itself nicely, the 10-team Pac-12 still holds more TV leverage. Its new deal comes up a year sooner (2024); it has the two biggest TV brands in Oregon and Washington, who do not appear to be coveted by the Big Ten; and it's got Pac-12 After Dark, a major selling point for ESPN in particular, which loves filling those late-night slots with quality games.
But there's at least one viable scenario in which both the Big 12 and Pac-12 could leverage the latter's current instability: They could merge.
Jon Wilner of The Mercury News wrote an excellent piece earlier this week explaining why this seemingly radical idea actually makes a lot of sense in the new world order. A combined Big 12/Pac-12 wouldn't be on par with the newly turbo-charged Big Ten and SEC, but it would become the clear No. 3. I twould boast three College Football Playoff participants in Oregon, Washington and Cincinnati, and 12 schools that have appeared in New Year's Six bowls since 2014. By comparison, the ACC has two CFP participants (Florida State and Clemson) and has had six New Year's Six participants.
Perhaps most pertinently, the combined leagues -- with the help of a couple of expansion adds -- would boast 10 of the nation's top 30 TV markets. And consolidating their upcoming TV deals into one would likely create more competition among bidders, be it traditional partners ESPN and Fox or streaming services like Apple and Amazon.
"Both leagues would make more by working together than they would separately," former Fox Sports executive Patrick Crakes told Wilner.
I read Wilner's story this week while sitting poolside with my family while on vacation in France. Being the realignment sicko that I am, I immediately got on my Notes app and started jotting down how such a thing would work. And I've got to say: It's a whole lot more workable than I initially thought.
First off, we turn what would currently be a clunky 22-team lineup into 24 by adding San Diego State and Southern Methodist. The Aztecs are far-and-away the most compelling Pac-12 expansion candidate. They regularly field both Top 25 football and men's basketball teams, as they restore at least some footprint in Southern California. SMU is admittedly redundant with TCU, but it's never a bad thing to have more presence in a huge football market like Dallas.
Having done that, we can now split the league into four "pods" of six teams each. While not exact, they do divide rather closely into four time zones.
Pacific Pod
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Washington
Washington State
Mountain Pod
Arizona
Arizona State
BYU
Colorado
San Diego State
Utah
Central Pod
Baylor
Houston
Oklahoma State
SMU
TCU
Texas Tech
Eastern Pod
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Cockeye State
Kansas
Kansas State
West Virginia
As you can see, travel shouldn't be nearly as difficult for most of these schools as it will be for USC and UCLAbia in the Big Ten -- especially in the non-revenue sports -- they'll still be able to play most games within one time zone of their own. East-West crossovers will be minimal.
Here's how that would work in football:
- Nine conference games in total, eight of which are pre-scheduled
- Those games follow a 5+1+1+1 model: Five games within your pod, and one each against the others.
- Cross-pod foes rotate every year
Now here comes a twist:
- The four teams that finish first in each pod will have their ninth game become a conference championship semifinal on Thanksgiving weekend.
- The winners advance to a regular-season title game on the first week of December
The other 20 teams get paired off in cross-pod matchups based on similar records -- for example, the second-place Pacific team plays the second-place Mountain team for their regular season finales. Assuming a 12-team Playoff is coming, this will guarantee the league more late-season games with CFP ramifications -- candy for TV networks.
It's anyone's guess what kind of dollar figures this configuration would fetch, but the laws of leverage suggest it would be higher per school than if the current leagues negotiate separately. ESPN would have one chance, not two, to retain rights to these 24 programs, which between them produced four of the top-12 teams in last season's final AP poll (No. 4 Cincinnati, No. 5 Baylor, No. 7 Oklahoma State and No. 12 Utah).
And rather than bidding on a league knowing its interest is largely limited to one region -- either the West Coast or Great Plains -- you're getting a truly national product. An early-November game between 7-2 Washington and 6-3 Arizona State that previously mattered only to other Pac-12 fans now has consequences for fans in Texas, Ohio and Florida as well.
Figuring out the logistics proved much easier, though, than coming up with a name for this new creation. I welcome your suggestions.
by Stewart Mandel, The Athletic
At his first conference media days this week, new Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark declared "the Big 12 s open for business." Conference realignment is normally a clandestine operation, but Yormark all but advertised that he's proactively pursuing potential expansion candidates.
It's no great secret who he's likely courting: Pac-12 schools Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah.
It would be understandable if some or all of that group is panicking in the wake of USC and UCLAbia's recent defections. But it's not obvious they'd be improving their lot by joining the post-Texas/Oklahoma Big 12. While that conference has stabilized itself nicely, the 10-team Pac-12 still holds more TV leverage. Its new deal comes up a year sooner (2024); it has the two biggest TV brands in Oregon and Washington, who do not appear to be coveted by the Big Ten; and it's got Pac-12 After Dark, a major selling point for ESPN in particular, which loves filling those late-night slots with quality games.
But there's at least one viable scenario in which both the Big 12 and Pac-12 could leverage the latter's current instability: They could merge.
Jon Wilner of The Mercury News wrote an excellent piece earlier this week explaining why this seemingly radical idea actually makes a lot of sense in the new world order. A combined Big 12/Pac-12 wouldn't be on par with the newly turbo-charged Big Ten and SEC, but it would become the clear No. 3. I twould boast three College Football Playoff participants in Oregon, Washington and Cincinnati, and 12 schools that have appeared in New Year's Six bowls since 2014. By comparison, the ACC has two CFP participants (Florida State and Clemson) and has had six New Year's Six participants.
Perhaps most pertinently, the combined leagues -- with the help of a couple of expansion adds -- would boast 10 of the nation's top 30 TV markets. And consolidating their upcoming TV deals into one would likely create more competition among bidders, be it traditional partners ESPN and Fox or streaming services like Apple and Amazon.
"Both leagues would make more by working together than they would separately," former Fox Sports executive Patrick Crakes told Wilner.
I read Wilner's story this week while sitting poolside with my family while on vacation in France. Being the realignment sicko that I am, I immediately got on my Notes app and started jotting down how such a thing would work. And I've got to say: It's a whole lot more workable than I initially thought.
First off, we turn what would currently be a clunky 22-team lineup into 24 by adding San Diego State and Southern Methodist. The Aztecs are far-and-away the most compelling Pac-12 expansion candidate. They regularly field both Top 25 football and men's basketball teams, as they restore at least some footprint in Southern California. SMU is admittedly redundant with TCU, but it's never a bad thing to have more presence in a huge football market like Dallas.
Having done that, we can now split the league into four "pods" of six teams each. While not exact, they do divide rather closely into four time zones.
Pacific Pod
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Washington
Washington State
Mountain Pod
Arizona
Arizona State
BYU
Colorado
San Diego State
Utah
Central Pod
Baylor
Houston
Oklahoma State
SMU
TCU
Texas Tech
Eastern Pod
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Cockeye State
Kansas
Kansas State
West Virginia
As you can see, travel shouldn't be nearly as difficult for most of these schools as it will be for USC and UCLAbia in the Big Ten -- especially in the non-revenue sports -- they'll still be able to play most games within one time zone of their own. East-West crossovers will be minimal.
Here's how that would work in football:
- Nine conference games in total, eight of which are pre-scheduled
- Those games follow a 5+1+1+1 model: Five games within your pod, and one each against the others.
- Cross-pod foes rotate every year
Now here comes a twist:
- The four teams that finish first in each pod will have their ninth game become a conference championship semifinal on Thanksgiving weekend.
- The winners advance to a regular-season title game on the first week of December
The other 20 teams get paired off in cross-pod matchups based on similar records -- for example, the second-place Pacific team plays the second-place Mountain team for their regular season finales. Assuming a 12-team Playoff is coming, this will guarantee the league more late-season games with CFP ramifications -- candy for TV networks.
It's anyone's guess what kind of dollar figures this configuration would fetch, but the laws of leverage suggest it would be higher per school than if the current leagues negotiate separately. ESPN would have one chance, not two, to retain rights to these 24 programs, which between them produced four of the top-12 teams in last season's final AP poll (No. 4 Cincinnati, No. 5 Baylor, No. 7 Oklahoma State and No. 12 Utah).
And rather than bidding on a league knowing its interest is largely limited to one region -- either the West Coast or Great Plains -- you're getting a truly national product. An early-November game between 7-2 Washington and 6-3 Arizona State that previously mattered only to other Pac-12 fans now has consequences for fans in Texas, Ohio and Florida as well.
Figuring out the logistics proved much easier, though, than coming up with a name for this new creation. I welcome your suggestions.
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- 5,065
- Likes
- 12,687
Stewart Mandel, among others, think the Pac-12 and Big 12 should just full-on merge
How a Pac-12/Big 12 conference merger would play football
Here's how to organize and schedule a Big 12/Pac-12 merged conference. Looks pretty good!
Here's how a Pac-12/Big 12 combo conference would play football
by Stewart Mandel, The Athletic
At his first conference media days this week, new Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark declared "the Big 12 s open for business." Conference realignment is normally a clandestine operation, but Yormark all but advertised that he's proactively pursuing potential expansion candidates.
It's no great secret who he's likely courting: Pac-12 schools Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah.
It would be understandable if some or all of that group is panicking in the wake of USC and UCLAbia's recent defections. But it's not obvious they'd be improving their lot by joining the post-Texas/Oklahoma Big 12. While that conference has stabilized itself nicely, the 10-team Pac-12 still holds more TV leverage. Its new deal comes up a year sooner (2024); it has the two biggest TV brands in Oregon and Washington, who do not appear to be coveted by the Big Ten; and it's got Pac-12 After Dark, a major selling point for ESPN in particular, which loves filling those late-night slots with quality games.
But there's at least one viable scenario in which both the Big 12 and Pac-12 could leverage the latter's current instability: They could merge.
Jon Wilner of The Mercury News wrote an excellent piece earlier this week explaining why this seemingly radical idea actually makes a lot of sense in the new world order. A combined Big 12/Pac-12 wouldn't be on par with the newly turbo-charged Big Ten and SEC, but it would become the clear No. 3. I twould boast three College Football Playoff participants in Oregon, Washington and Cincinnati, and 12 schools that have appeared in New Year's Six bowls since 2014. By comparison, the ACC has two CFP participants (Florida State and Clemson) and has had six New Year's Six participants.
Perhaps most pertinently, the combined leagues -- with the help of a couple of expansion adds -- would boast 10 of the nation's top 30 TV markets. And consolidating their upcoming TV deals into one would likely create more competition among bidders, be it traditional partners ESPN and Fox or streaming services like Apple and Amazon.
"Both leagues would make more by working together than they would separately," former Fox Sports executive Patrick Crakes told Wilner.
I read Wilner's story this week while sitting poolside with my family while on vacation in France. Being the realignment sicko that I am, I immediately got on my Notes app and started jotting down how such a thing would work. And I've got to say: It's a whole lot more workable than I initially thought.
First off, we turn what would currently be a clunky 22-team lineup into 24 by adding San Diego State and Southern Methodist. The Aztecs are far-and-away the most compelling Pac-12 expansion candidate. They regularly field both Top 25 football and men's basketball teams, as they restore at least some footprint in Southern California. SMU is admittedly redundant with TCU, but it's never a bad thing to have more presence in a huge football market like Dallas.
Having done that, we can now split the league into four "pods" of six teams each. While not exact, they do divide rather closely into four time zones.
Pacific Pod
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Washington
Washington State
Mountain Pod
Arizona
Arizona State
BYU
Colorado
San Diego State
Utah
Central Pod
Baylor
Houston
Oklahoma State
SMU
TCU
Texas Tech
Eastern Pod
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Cockeyes State
Kansas
Kansas State
West Virginia
As you can see, travel shouldn't be nearly as difficult for most of these schools as it will be for USC and UCLAbia in the Big Ten -- especially in the non-revenue sports -- they'll still be able to play most games within one time zone of their own. East-West crossovers will be minimal.
Here's how that would work in football:
- Nine conference games in total, eight of which are pre-scheduled
- Those games follow a 5+1+1+1 model: Five games within your pod, and one each against the others.
- Cross-pod foes rotate every year
Now here comes a twist:
- The four teams that finish first in each pod will have their ninth game become a conference championship semifinal on Thanksgiving weekend.
- The winners advance to a regular-season title game on the first week of December
The other 20 teams get paired off in cross-pod matchups based on similar records -- for example, the second-place Pacific team plays the second-place Mountain team for their regular season finales. Assuming a 12-team Playoff is coming, this will guarantee the league more late-season games with CFP ramifications -- candy for TV networks.
It's anyone's guess what kind of dollar figures this configuration would fetch, but the laws of leverage suggest it would be higher per school than if the current leagues negotiate separately. ESPN would have one chance, not two, to retain rights to these 24 programs, which between them produced four of the top-12 teams in last season's final AP poll (No. 4 Cincinnati, No. 5 Baylor, No. 7 Oklahoma State and No. 12 Utah).
And rather than bidding on a league knowing its interest is largely limited to one region -- either the West Coast or Great Plains -- you're getting a truly national product. An early-November game between 7-2 Washington and 6-3 Arizona State that previously mattered only to other Pac-12 fans now has consequences for fans in Texas, Ohio and Florida as well.
Figuring out the logistics proved much easier, though, than coming up with a name for this new creation. I welcome your suggestions.
I agree with that. It's merge or die a slow death.
Wilner's article from the Merucry-News that proposed the merger originally
www.mercurynews.com
Pac-12 survival guide: The strategic merits of an alliance (or merger) with the Big 12
A former Fox Sports executive believes the leagues are stronger together as college football consolidates.
www.mercurynews.com
Pac-12 Survival Guide: The strategic merits of an alliance (or merger) with the Big 12
by Jon Wilner, San Jose Mercury-News
Welcome to the sixth installment in a Hotline series on the future of the Pac-12.
Eleven months ago, the Pac-12 stood down. Believing itself stable and aligned, it passed on the opportunity to raid the teetering Big 12 following the announced departures of Texas and Oklahoma.
Now, 319 days later and reeling from the loss of USC and UCLAbia, the conference is vulnerable to a rebuilt, aggressive, potentially merciless Big 12.
But step back, assess the landscape from 50,000 feet, and it's clear the conferences are far more alike than different:
- Both are preparing to enter the next phase of college football without their top brands
- Both are far behind the enhanced versions of the SEC and Big Ten competitively and financially
- Both have expiring media rights contracts (the Pac-12 in 2024, the Big 12 in 2025) that allow for changes to membership, structure and business models
- Both, like the ACC, are scrambling for ways to secure spots in the expanded College Football Playoff (starting in 2026).
"The best thing (for the Pac-12) would be to figure out something with the Big 12 and negotiate with ESPN and create a channel," said Patrick Crakes, who operates Crakes Media consulting and is a former Fox Sports senior vice president for programming, research and content strategy.
Three years ago, the Hotline examined the benefits of a strategic alliance between the Pac-12 and Big 12 that would make both stronger.
Bob Bowlsby, the Big 12 commissioner at the time, suggested a partnership was "not far-fetched," but nothing materialized.
Then came COVID and the departures of Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLAbia.
Now, an alliance -- or an outright merger -- might be their best chance for relevance at the highest level in the sport's next era.
The conferences are stronger together, not with one raiding the other but with each embracing a partnership that would add media value, warrant slots in the expanded CFP, marginalize the ACC, span every time zone and create a credible counterweight to the SEC and Big Ten.
"Both leagues would make more by working together than they would separately," Crakes said.
"You can say, 'We aren't the Big Ten or SEC, but we have seven or eight high-quality teams, and we're entitled to a couple spots in the CFP.' Maybe you're 75 percent of those two, but you could get two or three slots in the playoff."
Crakes is not directly involved in the discussions involving conferences and their media partners, but he knows many of they key players, including new Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark.
His broad perspective is shaped by the confluence of four events that will catapult college football into its next chapter:
2024: The Pac-12 begins a new media contract cycle
2025: The Big 12 begins a new media contract cycle
2026: Notre Dame's last year under its current NBC contract
2026: The first season of an expanded CFP
In other words, both the Pac-12 and Big 12 should move their chess pieces in a manner that not only creates media value for the next contract cycle, but positions each for competitive relevance in the 12-team playoff.
The Pac-12 could hunker down with 10 or expand membership to create bulk. (If that's the case, one option seems obvious. "They might conclude that San Diego State is too good to pass up," Crakes said.)
The Big 12 could do the same and stick with the 12 schools committed for the post-Texas/Oklahoma era, a collection that includes incoming members, Houston, UCF, Cincinnati and BYU.
"I don't think the Big 12 has enough on its own (to be the No. 3 conference), Crakes said. (The ACC still has Clemson, Florida State and Miami.)
"You add the Pac-12 with Washington and Oregon and the big market of San Francisco, and Utah is really good, then you're much stronger together. You don't catch the Big Ten and the SEC, but you can see them in the front of the windshield if you do that."
Crakes is aware of the media reports indicating the Big 12 might attempt to add the Four Corners schools (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah) -- a move that would add heft but not significant new media revenue.
And in that scenario, Washington and Oregon might feel compelled to come along, thereby giving the Big 12 eight new members and decimating the Pac-12.
But Crakes believes that's shortsighted, because it leaves out Cal and Stanford and the massive Bay Area media market.
"If you're the Big 12 and you raid the Pac-12 for those six schools," he said, "maybe you get a 20 percent (revenue) bump. But maybe that gets to 30 percent if you bring the Bay Area."
Changes in media consumption have added immense value to the top brands in college football -- the schools that drive ratings and command primetime slots on over-the-air networks. But market size still factors into valuation because of retransmission fees (for broadcast) and subscribers (for cable).
"The Bay Area adds value," Crakes said. "Why would you say no to that?"
Based solely on the number of large media markets within its footprint, the Pac-12 has an advantage over the Big 12 even without USC and UCLAbia, particularly if it were to add San Diego State.
Number of Pac-12 markets with at least one million homes in 2021, per Nielsen DMAs (with national ranking):
6. Bay Area
11. Phoenix
12. Seattle
16. Denver
21. Portland
27. San Diego
30. Salt Lake City
Number of Big 12 markets with at least one million homes (with national ranking):
5. Dallas
8. Houston
17. Orlando
30. Salt Lake City
Instead of the Big 12 grabbing six or eight Pac-12 schools or the Pac-12 churning forward alone, why not work together to create a super-conference that would include 10 of the top 30 markets and eight teams ranked in the final AP top 25 poll of the 2021 season.
"There are lots of non-strategic football brands in the Big Ten and SEC," Crakes said.
"If you can get enough strategic brands together in the new combined conference, you've got something to offer media companies, distributors and advertisers. You get enough top 25 matchups in a given year, and you'd be OK.
"Also, if you can assemble the right parts, you can offer real value to the major media companies -- CBS, NBC, Turner and the new digital-only distributors (e.g. Amazon and Apple) -- that are, as of this moment, boxed out by Fox and ESPN's de facto duopoly."
The specifics of governance and structure (full-on merger or formal scheduling alliance) would take not only a commitment by each league but also ESPN, which could operate the combined linear network and own the digital rights, as well.
But a partnership of 20 schools (or more) -- not separate paths or a predatory move - would create the best strategic position for 2026 and beyond, when strength and stability will be defined by both media dollars and CFP slots.
To get there, patience is required.
If the Four Corners schools get antsy, for instance, they could leave long-haul value on the table.
"If the money doesn't start to flow for another two years and you're Arizona, for example, do you really need to decide to join the Big 12 right now? Really, do you?" Crakes said.
"The Pac-12 schools need to think about this before they act."
by Jon Wilner, San Jose Mercury-News
Welcome to the sixth installment in a Hotline series on the future of the Pac-12.
Eleven months ago, the Pac-12 stood down. Believing itself stable and aligned, it passed on the opportunity to raid the teetering Big 12 following the announced departures of Texas and Oklahoma.
Now, 319 days later and reeling from the loss of USC and UCLAbia, the conference is vulnerable to a rebuilt, aggressive, potentially merciless Big 12.
But step back, assess the landscape from 50,000 feet, and it's clear the conferences are far more alike than different:
- Both are preparing to enter the next phase of college football without their top brands
- Both are far behind the enhanced versions of the SEC and Big Ten competitively and financially
- Both have expiring media rights contracts (the Pac-12 in 2024, the Big 12 in 2025) that allow for changes to membership, structure and business models
- Both, like the ACC, are scrambling for ways to secure spots in the expanded College Football Playoff (starting in 2026).
"The best thing (for the Pac-12) would be to figure out something with the Big 12 and negotiate with ESPN and create a channel," said Patrick Crakes, who operates Crakes Media consulting and is a former Fox Sports senior vice president for programming, research and content strategy.
Three years ago, the Hotline examined the benefits of a strategic alliance between the Pac-12 and Big 12 that would make both stronger.
Bob Bowlsby, the Big 12 commissioner at the time, suggested a partnership was "not far-fetched," but nothing materialized.
Then came COVID and the departures of Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLAbia.
Now, an alliance -- or an outright merger -- might be their best chance for relevance at the highest level in the sport's next era.
The conferences are stronger together, not with one raiding the other but with each embracing a partnership that would add media value, warrant slots in the expanded CFP, marginalize the ACC, span every time zone and create a credible counterweight to the SEC and Big Ten.
"Both leagues would make more by working together than they would separately," Crakes said.
"You can say, 'We aren't the Big Ten or SEC, but we have seven or eight high-quality teams, and we're entitled to a couple spots in the CFP.' Maybe you're 75 percent of those two, but you could get two or three slots in the playoff."
Crakes is not directly involved in the discussions involving conferences and their media partners, but he knows many of they key players, including new Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark.
His broad perspective is shaped by the confluence of four events that will catapult college football into its next chapter:
2024: The Pac-12 begins a new media contract cycle
2025: The Big 12 begins a new media contract cycle
2026: Notre Dame's last year under its current NBC contract
2026: The first season of an expanded CFP
In other words, both the Pac-12 and Big 12 should move their chess pieces in a manner that not only creates media value for the next contract cycle, but positions each for competitive relevance in the 12-team playoff.
The Pac-12 could hunker down with 10 or expand membership to create bulk. (If that's the case, one option seems obvious. "They might conclude that San Diego State is too good to pass up," Crakes said.)
The Big 12 could do the same and stick with the 12 schools committed for the post-Texas/Oklahoma era, a collection that includes incoming members, Houston, UCF, Cincinnati and BYU.
"I don't think the Big 12 has enough on its own (to be the No. 3 conference), Crakes said. (The ACC still has Clemson, Florida State and Miami.)
"You add the Pac-12 with Washington and Oregon and the big market of San Francisco, and Utah is really good, then you're much stronger together. You don't catch the Big Ten and the SEC, but you can see them in the front of the windshield if you do that."
Crakes is aware of the media reports indicating the Big 12 might attempt to add the Four Corners schools (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah) -- a move that would add heft but not significant new media revenue.
And in that scenario, Washington and Oregon might feel compelled to come along, thereby giving the Big 12 eight new members and decimating the Pac-12.
But Crakes believes that's shortsighted, because it leaves out Cal and Stanford and the massive Bay Area media market.
"If you're the Big 12 and you raid the Pac-12 for those six schools," he said, "maybe you get a 20 percent (revenue) bump. But maybe that gets to 30 percent if you bring the Bay Area."
Changes in media consumption have added immense value to the top brands in college football -- the schools that drive ratings and command primetime slots on over-the-air networks. But market size still factors into valuation because of retransmission fees (for broadcast) and subscribers (for cable).
"The Bay Area adds value," Crakes said. "Why would you say no to that?"
Based solely on the number of large media markets within its footprint, the Pac-12 has an advantage over the Big 12 even without USC and UCLAbia, particularly if it were to add San Diego State.
Number of Pac-12 markets with at least one million homes in 2021, per Nielsen DMAs (with national ranking):
6. Bay Area
11. Phoenix
12. Seattle
16. Denver
21. Portland
27. San Diego
30. Salt Lake City
Number of Big 12 markets with at least one million homes (with national ranking):
5. Dallas
8. Houston
17. Orlando
30. Salt Lake City
Instead of the Big 12 grabbing six or eight Pac-12 schools or the Pac-12 churning forward alone, why not work together to create a super-conference that would include 10 of the top 30 markets and eight teams ranked in the final AP top 25 poll of the 2021 season.
"There are lots of non-strategic football brands in the Big Ten and SEC," Crakes said.
"If you can get enough strategic brands together in the new combined conference, you've got something to offer media companies, distributors and advertisers. You get enough top 25 matchups in a given year, and you'd be OK.
"Also, if you can assemble the right parts, you can offer real value to the major media companies -- CBS, NBC, Turner and the new digital-only distributors (e.g. Amazon and Apple) -- that are, as of this moment, boxed out by Fox and ESPN's de facto duopoly."
The specifics of governance and structure (full-on merger or formal scheduling alliance) would take not only a commitment by each league but also ESPN, which could operate the combined linear network and own the digital rights, as well.
But a partnership of 20 schools (or more) -- not separate paths or a predatory move - would create the best strategic position for 2026 and beyond, when strength and stability will be defined by both media dollars and CFP slots.
To get there, patience is required.
If the Four Corners schools get antsy, for instance, they could leave long-haul value on the table.
"If the money doesn't start to flow for another two years and you're Arizona, for example, do you really need to decide to join the Big 12 right now? Really, do you?" Crakes said.
"The Pac-12 schools need to think about this before they act."
Conference realignment slows as Big 12, Pac-12 may be realizing they're worth more together than apart
Plus: What's ahead for the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and College Football Playoff?
www.cbssports.com
Conference realignment slows as Big 12, Pac-12 may be realizing they're worth more together than apart
by Dennis Dodd, CBSSports.com
Conference realignment has become an increasingly frustrating attempt to squeeze dollars out of a system that has consolidated resources at the top. The best brands and most of the money are among those 32 teams in the Big Ten and SEC -- and the networks that own their major television rights (ESPN and Fox).
Everything else has become a scramble to the point that one source within the Big 12 said a worst-case scenario would be nothing happening in the league. That would mean staying at 12 teams with BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF In the fold after Texas and Oklahoma leave before the 2025 season.
Some Big 12 athletic directors are worried that the conference's media rights dollars won't stretch far enough to add more programs without their payouts being diminished. Outgoing commissioner Bob Bowlsby testified last summer that Texas and Oklahoma brought 50% of the rights value to the league.
The same reality is emerging for the Pac-12. Even with Oregon and Washington -- the two best brand names remaining among the 22 schools still in the Pac-12 and Big 12 -- there is not much on which the conference can capitalize.
Do the math. There seems to be a consensus among key parties that the Big 12 and Pac-12 would be worth more together, in some form, than they are separately.
"Let's say the blood-letting stops at USC and UCLAbia. Right there, you can't get an increase in rights fees because you lose the L.A. market," said Bobby Hacker a West Coast attorney and sports media consultant who spent 18 years as vice president of business and legal affairs for Fox Sports.
Hacker continued: "Now you have the Pac-12, which had less of valued rights deal than any Power Five group. They've now lost the L.A. market. There are no teams here with which to replace it. And if you say, 'We're going to get San Diego State,' there is push back in the conference because a San Diego State or Fresno State don't have the academic cache that the other schools had.
"If Oregon and Washington go, Katy bar the door. The option to my mind's eye is Big 12 merger."
A stand-down mentality appears to have emerged.....for now.
The Pac-12 is in exclusive negotiations with Fox and ESPN. The Big 12 continues to study expansion. New Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark made that official with his "open for business" comment at his conference's media days last week.
The Big 12 wants to be hipper, younger, cooler. There's not much that's hip, young and cook about an Cockeye State-Cincinnati game.
News & Notes
SEC presidents aren't keen to move beyond 16 teams at this moment. That suggests any decision Notre Dame makes about the Big Ten is going to be isolated and will not necessarily impact the SEC.
That focuses attention back on Oregon and Washington, the two biggest "available" pieces. The reason they're not already atop the Big 12 list is because they believe they have options centered around the Big Ten. One problem? Multiple sources tell CBS Sports neither the Ducks nor Huskies nor the pair bring enough value to the Big Ten (in the $80 million to $100 million range per year).
Even if the Big Ten is not open for business, why would Oregon or Washington sign a grant of rights with the Pac-12 knowing the conference is vulnerable? That's how the Pac-12 got in this predicament: Former commissioner Larry Scott signed a 12-year deal in 2012 that appeared lucrative at the time but locked the conference into below-market valuation.
Some have suggested, wherever the schools end up, they be allowed an "out" in the grant of rights contract should an eventual offer come from the Big Ten. But why would any conference knowingly devalue the main source of its revenue?
Regarding the Pac-12, ESPN and/or Fox don't necessarily want to overspend on a property they've already decided is far less valuable than the Big Ten and SEC. It's also no sure thing ESPN gets any of the Big Ten's secondary rights. If they don't have the Big Ten, perhaps that opens their pockets for College Football Playoff expansion, the next major college rights deal on the docket (after the Pac-12 and Big 12).
"I've sort of refocused my thinking. I think we're no longer really talking about college sports through the lends of the NCAA, the Power Five," Hacker said. "College sports is now completely controlled by ESPN and Fox."
It's definitely not ironclad." That's what Kansas City sports attorney Mit Winter had to say about the ACC"s grant of rights as it relates to the ongoing angst about that conference's schools soon being $50 million annually behind the Big Ten and SEC. He continued: "It would be costly to litigate it and try to get out of it with an uncertain result. I don't think anyone actually wants to get involved in that fight. If they were to get out, they would just agree to some sort of monetary settlement, which would be a huge number."
That figure has been estimated as anywhere from $100 million to $500 million. Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia are the programs mentioned most often as candidates for other conferences.
"There is definitely no sure-fire loophole in the grant of rights," Winter added.
The ACC borrowed heavily from the Big 12 in shaping its grant of rights, sources tell CBS Sports. That agreement is holding Texas and Oklahoma in the league through the 2024 season. Winter said he had input in drafting that Big 12 document. Here's a PDF of the original Big 12 grant of rights signed in 2012. Notice in the "agreement to membership" where the members "agree" to stay together for 99 years.
However, that is different than the actual grant of rights, which states any school leaving the conference must pay the final two years' worth of revenue distribution. In this case, Texas and Oklahoma would both owe approximately $90 million to leave early for the SEC. Now you're getting an idea of why, to date, both schools have committed to the Big 12 through the term of their agreement.
If you want to be a conspiracy theorist, consider the possibility that this round of realignment could lead to one less major conference, which potentially means one less guaranteed spot in an expanded playoff. The original 12-team playoff expansion proposal, rejected in January, included spots for the top six conference champions. A merger of two powers or collapse of one creates greater opportunities for at-large spots for the Big Ten and SEC.
That was the underplayed angle when the Big 12 rebuilt itself last year, whether it would remain in the Power Five after being reconstituted with Group of Five schools. That might be answered in real time. Should the Pac-12 be absorbed by the Big 12 in some form, that would help strengthen the case of it being a Power Four league.
With only four major conferences, would there be a temptation to distribute uneven playoff shares to leagues below the Big Ten and SEC? Currently, the Power Five conferences are contracted to receive the same money -- about $57 million each -- through the 12 years of the CFP deal that expires after the 2025 season. The 65 Group of Five teams split $83 million.
Another example of that widening gap: With the addition of USC and UCLAbia, the projected annual worth of the Big Ten deal now goes up to about $1.2 billion per year. That means the current Pac-12 rights would have to increase almost 2.5 times ($600 million per year) to reach half of what the Big Ten will be earning. In its latest rights deals, the total MLB contract went up 19%. The NFL increased its rights 63%. The Pac-12 would have to balloon its rights 240% to get to half of the Big Ten.
"They're not going to get there," one executive said of the Pac-12.
That kind of delta between leagues impacts ability to hire the best coaches, academic counselors, mental health experts (Ohio State, for example, has a sports psychologist for each of its 36 sports), nutritionists, and strength coaches. For starters.
by Dennis Dodd, CBSSports.com
Conference realignment has become an increasingly frustrating attempt to squeeze dollars out of a system that has consolidated resources at the top. The best brands and most of the money are among those 32 teams in the Big Ten and SEC -- and the networks that own their major television rights (ESPN and Fox).
Everything else has become a scramble to the point that one source within the Big 12 said a worst-case scenario would be nothing happening in the league. That would mean staying at 12 teams with BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF In the fold after Texas and Oklahoma leave before the 2025 season.
Some Big 12 athletic directors are worried that the conference's media rights dollars won't stretch far enough to add more programs without their payouts being diminished. Outgoing commissioner Bob Bowlsby testified last summer that Texas and Oklahoma brought 50% of the rights value to the league.
The same reality is emerging for the Pac-12. Even with Oregon and Washington -- the two best brand names remaining among the 22 schools still in the Pac-12 and Big 12 -- there is not much on which the conference can capitalize.
Do the math. There seems to be a consensus among key parties that the Big 12 and Pac-12 would be worth more together, in some form, than they are separately.
"Let's say the blood-letting stops at USC and UCLAbia. Right there, you can't get an increase in rights fees because you lose the L.A. market," said Bobby Hacker a West Coast attorney and sports media consultant who spent 18 years as vice president of business and legal affairs for Fox Sports.
Hacker continued: "Now you have the Pac-12, which had less of valued rights deal than any Power Five group. They've now lost the L.A. market. There are no teams here with which to replace it. And if you say, 'We're going to get San Diego State,' there is push back in the conference because a San Diego State or Fresno State don't have the academic cache that the other schools had.
"If Oregon and Washington go, Katy bar the door. The option to my mind's eye is Big 12 merger."
A stand-down mentality appears to have emerged.....for now.
The Pac-12 is in exclusive negotiations with Fox and ESPN. The Big 12 continues to study expansion. New Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark made that official with his "open for business" comment at his conference's media days last week.
The Big 12 wants to be hipper, younger, cooler. There's not much that's hip, young and cook about an Cockeye State-Cincinnati game.
News & Notes
SEC presidents aren't keen to move beyond 16 teams at this moment. That suggests any decision Notre Dame makes about the Big Ten is going to be isolated and will not necessarily impact the SEC.
That focuses attention back on Oregon and Washington, the two biggest "available" pieces. The reason they're not already atop the Big 12 list is because they believe they have options centered around the Big Ten. One problem? Multiple sources tell CBS Sports neither the Ducks nor Huskies nor the pair bring enough value to the Big Ten (in the $80 million to $100 million range per year).
Even if the Big Ten is not open for business, why would Oregon or Washington sign a grant of rights with the Pac-12 knowing the conference is vulnerable? That's how the Pac-12 got in this predicament: Former commissioner Larry Scott signed a 12-year deal in 2012 that appeared lucrative at the time but locked the conference into below-market valuation.
Some have suggested, wherever the schools end up, they be allowed an "out" in the grant of rights contract should an eventual offer come from the Big Ten. But why would any conference knowingly devalue the main source of its revenue?
Regarding the Pac-12, ESPN and/or Fox don't necessarily want to overspend on a property they've already decided is far less valuable than the Big Ten and SEC. It's also no sure thing ESPN gets any of the Big Ten's secondary rights. If they don't have the Big Ten, perhaps that opens their pockets for College Football Playoff expansion, the next major college rights deal on the docket (after the Pac-12 and Big 12).
"I've sort of refocused my thinking. I think we're no longer really talking about college sports through the lends of the NCAA, the Power Five," Hacker said. "College sports is now completely controlled by ESPN and Fox."
It's definitely not ironclad." That's what Kansas City sports attorney Mit Winter had to say about the ACC"s grant of rights as it relates to the ongoing angst about that conference's schools soon being $50 million annually behind the Big Ten and SEC. He continued: "It would be costly to litigate it and try to get out of it with an uncertain result. I don't think anyone actually wants to get involved in that fight. If they were to get out, they would just agree to some sort of monetary settlement, which would be a huge number."
That figure has been estimated as anywhere from $100 million to $500 million. Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia are the programs mentioned most often as candidates for other conferences.
"There is definitely no sure-fire loophole in the grant of rights," Winter added.
The ACC borrowed heavily from the Big 12 in shaping its grant of rights, sources tell CBS Sports. That agreement is holding Texas and Oklahoma in the league through the 2024 season. Winter said he had input in drafting that Big 12 document. Here's a PDF of the original Big 12 grant of rights signed in 2012. Notice in the "agreement to membership" where the members "agree" to stay together for 99 years.
However, that is different than the actual grant of rights, which states any school leaving the conference must pay the final two years' worth of revenue distribution. In this case, Texas and Oklahoma would both owe approximately $90 million to leave early for the SEC. Now you're getting an idea of why, to date, both schools have committed to the Big 12 through the term of their agreement.
If you want to be a conspiracy theorist, consider the possibility that this round of realignment could lead to one less major conference, which potentially means one less guaranteed spot in an expanded playoff. The original 12-team playoff expansion proposal, rejected in January, included spots for the top six conference champions. A merger of two powers or collapse of one creates greater opportunities for at-large spots for the Big Ten and SEC.
That was the underplayed angle when the Big 12 rebuilt itself last year, whether it would remain in the Power Five after being reconstituted with Group of Five schools. That might be answered in real time. Should the Pac-12 be absorbed by the Big 12 in some form, that would help strengthen the case of it being a Power Four league.
With only four major conferences, would there be a temptation to distribute uneven playoff shares to leagues below the Big Ten and SEC? Currently, the Power Five conferences are contracted to receive the same money -- about $57 million each -- through the 12 years of the CFP deal that expires after the 2025 season. The 65 Group of Five teams split $83 million.
Another example of that widening gap: With the addition of USC and UCLAbia, the projected annual worth of the Big Ten deal now goes up to about $1.2 billion per year. That means the current Pac-12 rights would have to increase almost 2.5 times ($600 million per year) to reach half of what the Big Ten will be earning. In its latest rights deals, the total MLB contract went up 19%. The NFL increased its rights 63%. The Pac-12 would have to balloon its rights 240% to get to half of the Big Ten.
"They're not going to get there," one executive said of the Pac-12.
That kind of delta between leagues impacts ability to hire the best coaches, academic counselors, mental health experts (Ohio State, for example, has a sports psychologist for each of its 36 sports), nutritionists, and strength coaches. For starters.
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