Penn State vs. Nebraska Prediction Articles

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Link: https://collegefootballnews.com/2020/11/penn-state-vs-nebraska-prediction-game-preview

Penn State vs. Nebraska Prediction and Preview
by Pete Fiutak, CollegeFootballNews.com

Penn State (0-3) at Nebraska (0-2)
Saturday, November 14 - 12:00 PM (ET) - FS1

Why Penn State Will Win
You are what your record is, but the team is better than 0-3.

What's been the problem? The offensive line has been a big issue, turnover margin was devastating against Indianus and Maryland, and the defense is having a rough time getting off the field. However.....

.....the run defense hasn't been all that bad, the passing game has worked, and the pass rush has been effective.

Nebraska? It's not doing a thing on third downs on either side of the ball, the downfield passing game is non-existent, and the running game isn't converting enough drives into points.

If the Nittany Lions can hold on against the Husker quarterbacks taking off, they should be fine.

Why Nebraska Will Win
The Huskers need Penn State to screw up, and that should happen.

With three giveaways against Maryland and Indianus, the Nittany Lions make mistakes and can't seem to overcome them.

More than anything else, the offensive line has been the problem. It can't control anyone's pass rush, the running game wasn't able to get going against Ohio State and Maryland, and Sean Clifford and the passing game aren't accurate enough.

The Nebraska running game really was good against two great defenses in Ohio State and Northwestern, and on the other side there were just enough plays in the backfield by the Nebraska defense to be a problem.

What's Going to Happen
Desperation sometimes makes great games.

Scott Frost with an 0-3 start would be really, really bad, but James Franklin with an 0-4 start would be a whole lot worse.

Can Nebraska be as balanced offensively as it was against Northwestern? It was knocking on the door time and again, but it couldn't punch it in. Penn State is having a bad habit of not holding up in key moments like Northwestern is.

Penn State has the talent to be a whole lot better than this, but can the lines play well enough to get this done? This is gut-check time for the Nittany Lion defense, and it'll come through with a win. It'll be ugly, but it'll be a win.

Prediction
Penn State 30, Nebraska 26

Spread
Penn State is favored on the road by 3 points

 

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Athlon's take on the game

Link: https://athlonsports.com/college-fo...vs-nebraska-cornhuskers-prediction-picks-2020

Penn State vs. Nebraska Prediction and Preview
by Brandon Cavanaugh, Athlon Sports

When the Nebraska Cornhuskers' freshly-revised 2020 schedule was handed down, the team was given largely the same gauntlet they originally expected. The difference was they'd be beginning the season against those opponents versus ending it with them. The Huskers now face a winless Penn State Nittany Lions team that has struggles of their own. In fact, the last time these teams met without a victory to their credit was in the inaugural Kickoff Classic to begin the 1983 season.

This series goes all the way back to 1920 when the Nittany Lions bested the Huskers 20-0. It's been tightly-contested ever since with the Big Red holding a slight 9-8 advantage (3-1 in Big Ten play).

The good news for both of these teams is that one of them has to win......in theory. Let's not challenge the wrath of 2020. Can Scott Frost's offense get its wheels out of the mud and find a proper footing? Will Sean Clifford baffle the Blackshirts with both is arm and legs?

Let's break it down.

Penn State (0-3) at Nebraska (0-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 PM (ET)
TV: FS1
Spread: Penn State (-3.5)

When Penn State Has the Ball
All things considered, Nebraska handled Northwestern's Peyton Ramsey about as well as they could. However, Clifford is on another level when it comes to efficiency. His most recent effort versus Maryland was a low point. But his play against two current top-10 teams (Ohio State and Indianus) showed the type of ability that can knock the Blackshirts for a loop.

He completed 64.6 percent of his passes against Indianus and Ohio State and threw for a combined 519 yards and six touchdowns. However, he also handed over three interceptions, and, as we saw versus the Wildcats, the Big Red has ballhawks in the secondary.

At running back, Devyn Ford has filled in as well as he could following injuries to those in front of him on the depth chart and Ricky Slade's transfer to Old Dominion. He's seen single-digit carries and totaled 72 yards rushing over the past two games. What's concerning for Nebraska is Northwestern still managed chunk plays on the ground despite the absence of Isaiah Bowser.

If the likes of Cam Taylor-Britt, Dicaprio Bootle and the other Blackshirt defensive backs can clamp down on wide receivers Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, they give Frost's offense every chance to succeed. As seen against the Wildcats, Nebraska's defense can be picked apart by a properly-utilized tight end. Watch for Pat Freiermuth to get a few balls thrown away.

When Nebraska Has the Ball
Who starts at quarterback for the Huskers is only one of the biggest factors that will decide the outcome. How long of a leash that person has is the other. If Adrian Martinez takes the field for a third consecutive game and struggles, how much time is Frost willing to give him before opting for Luke McCaffrey? If McCaffrey gets the starting nod, this would likely indicate a passing of the torch barring an absolute meltdown on his behalf.

Skill players aren't a concern. Ryan Held's running back room is well-stocked while Matt Lubick's wide receivers are versatile and pose several challenges. Once it's established which signal-caller they need to sync up with, attention shifts to an offensive line that has switched up early on.

While so-so in run blocking versus Northwestern, they performed well in pass protection. However, each member had a penalty to their credit. No matter who any team plays, that's unacceptable.

No one player can make a defense. But it's indisputable once Micah Parsons decided to opt out and focus on his NFL career, PSU took a hit not just defensively but overall in terms of energy and leadership. However, Nebraska still faces several challenges when taking on the Nittany Lions' front seven, including defensive lineman Shaka Toney and linebacker Brandon Smith. The secondary can be schemed around, but taking safety Lamont Wade out of the picture often is key.

Final Analysis
On paper, this is truly a clash of the stoppable force versus the moveable object. Getting into the nitty-gritty of what results in a win or a loss, while Nebraska does gift the ball to its opponents with a negative-one (-1) turnover margin, Penn State does it more often (-5). The Nittany Lions aren't the most disciplined team, racking up 52 penalty yards per game, but the Huskers certainly haven't played that way either (72.5).

Honestly, either team could win. What probably decides is Frost's quarterback decisions. Both Martinez and McCaffrey are a roll of the dice. However, one is a junior, the other is a redshirt freshman. Despite similar stat lines last week, the former is trending downward while the latter appears to be moving in the opposite direction.

Regardless of whether or not No. 2 takes the field first, considering the evidence we have regarding his play, it's tough to see him finish. And if that decision is made early enough, Nebraska definitely has a shot to triumph.

As this is the final contest of the Huskers' most difficult stretch, Frost may choose to give Martinez one last chance to sink or swim. If another Big Red loss can be tied back to his performance, going with McCaffrey for the remainder of the season seems all but a given. Considering Martinez's body of work, his backup likely gets into the game -- but too late to pull out the victory. That said, he can prepare Nebraska for a good back end run to finish out 2020 as Martinez did in '18.

Prediction
Penn State 30, Nebraska 24

 

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Link: https://theathletic.com/2192869/2020/11/12/college-football-odds-picks-against-the-spread-week-11-2/

Bruce Feldman's Week 11 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Penn State at Nebraska (+3) | 11:00 a.m. (FS1)
The Huskers showed some grit last week, and they have run the ball well. Meanwhile, Penn State had a dreadful showing last week. Still, I think the Nittany Lions have enough weapons (Pat Freiermuth and Jahan Dotson to name two) to find a win. Penn State 35, Nebraska 34

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Link: https://theathletic.com/2193215/2020/11/12/college-football-odds-picks-against-the-spread-week-11/

Stewart Mandel's Week 11 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Penn State (-3) at Nebraska | 11:00 a.m. (FS1)
Surely 0-3 Penn State will right itself at some point. And this seems like a good week to do it. The Nittany Lions at least have some proven stars in WR Jahan Dotson, TE Pat Freiermuth and DE Shaka Toney. Nebraska is still trying to figure out its identity, and it has really struggled in the red zone its first two games. Penn State 27, Nebraska 17

 

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Penn State-Nebraska Football Game Preview

A quick-hitting fan guide to the showdown between the Nittany Lions and Cornhuskers

247sports.com

Penn State-Nebraska Preview
by Mark Brennan, Lions247

Game Details

Who: Penn State at Nebraska
When: Saturday, Noon ET
Where: Memorial Stadium
Series: Nebraska leads series 9-8
TV: FS1
Sirius/XM: 134/196
Line: Penn State (-3.5)
Over/Under: 56 points

What's at Stake for Penn State?
With all the significant expectations for Penn State's 2020 season essentially evaporated, the Nittany Lions are looking at a pivotal game which could determine whether they are equipped to win A game. While that might sound a bit dramatic, PSU is facing an 0-2 Nebraska team that is also reeling. Another loss and this team may be unable to pick itself back up the rest of the way. The key question is whether James Franklin can get control of this team?

What's at Stake for Nebraska?
Respectability. Nebraska was at the forefront of the movement to get football to be played this season. And, had it not been for a COVID-19 outbreak at Wisconsin, the Huskers would likely be staring at an 0-3 record. Former Husker great Scott Frost was brought back to Lincoln to return Nebraska to the highest level. Much like Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, those expectations have not been met. Though Frost has underperformed, the AD is unlikely to take action given budget issues and Frost's $25 million payout if he's let go after this season. So the Huskers are looking to get a win and give their fans something to cheer about this season.

Player to Watch for Penn State
While Penn State has a litany of issues, the man to watch Saturday is quarterback Sean Clifford -- specifically when it comes to turnovers. His consistent giveaways have been back-breakers for the Lion offense, so he will have to refrain from tossing the desperate up-for-grabs balls. That also means that OC Kirk Ciarrocca has to stop the dependency of the deep ball in his play-calling. This is putting too much pressure on Clifford. On the other side, the Lion secondary has to tighten up coverage and play more aggressive, particularly on critical third downs.

Player to Watch for Nebraska
Frost learned the Chip Kelly offensive scheme as an assistant at Oregon and took it to Central Florida. His offense is predicated on getting the ball in space and making the defense pick its poison. Central to that scheme is a dynamic quarterback. When Adrian Martinez walked on campus, Husker Nation thought they had a dual-threat QB who would really challenge defenses. Martinez struggled with injuries early on and has not developed year-over-year. But he's still a threat to run and has a good (but not great) arm. Expect to see Luke McCaffrey at QB, too. He is also an effective ball carrier. Another key element to the Husker offense is running back Dedrick Mills. The Georgia Tech transfer runs well between the tackles and has very good hands out of the backfield.

Keys to the Game for Penn State
This game comes down largely to ball protection and play-calling. If the Nittany Lions continue to play careless with the ball and commit turnovers and fall behind, there is no way I can see them overcoming yet another deficit. If they can somehow protect the ball, they may have a shot.......if the coaches can get the play-calling squared away. That could be a tall order given the reliance on the RPO, which has been less than lackluster, and the insistence on the jump balls. This offense simply lacks an identity. The best way to create one is for the offensive line to step up, give Clifford a chance to spread the ball around to Pat Freiermuth, Jahan Dotson and company, which in turn should open up the ground game for Devyn Ford and the backs.

Keys to the Game for Nebraska
The Nebraska defense reminds me quite a bit of the Penn State defense. On film, the Cornhuskers show size and speed. But they are regularly out of position and not filling the necessary gaps, which leads to big chunk plays in the running game. They do run a 3-4 scheme, but the linebackers don't always read their keys correctly and the safeties -- much like Penn State's -- have taken poor angles to make tackles. PSU has to establish the run, so the pressure is on the Nebraska defense to play more disciplined and make use of its speed.

Bold Predictions for Penn State
The Penn State offense will generate more than 400 yards, but will have issues in the red zone with stalled drives and turnovers (with the over/under at three). I suspect we will see Jordan Stout get an opportunity to handle more place kicking in an effort to address the chronic issues at the position. Beyond this, the defense will step up by creating turnovers to keep PSU in the game.

Bold Predictions for Nebraska
I think Penn State's defense comes out and really sets the tone in this game. My bold prediction is that Nebraska will have more punts than first downs in the first half. That fizzles in the second half, but I like Penn State playing sound football early.

Score Predictions
Mark Harrington: Penn State seems to be rudderless at this stage of the season with no identity, some off-field drama, baffling play-calling and subpar execution. These issues seem to be too much to overcome in short order. Toss in the fact that it's a road game and I would be surprised if the Lions can pull this one out -- the deck just seems to stack against them.
Prediction: Nebraska 31, Penn State 20

Nirav Dalal: Nebraska's struggles on defense mirror the issues that Penn State has displayed. For that reason, I think PSU will finally make a little progress in running the ball and will get some balance to score enough points to win. A couple of Martinez turnovers will help, too.
Prediction: Penn State 27, Nebraska 17

 

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Link: https://www.blackshoediaries.com/20...-game-preview-2020-sean-clifford-jahan-dotson

Penn State at Nebraska: Game Preview
by Jared Slanina, Black Shoe Diaries (SB Nation)

Two teams. Five losses. Zero wins. Something has to give as the Nittany Lions face the Huskers in Lincoln.

Penn State (0-3) at Nebraska (0-2)

Kickoff: Noon (ET), Memorial Stadium - Lincoln, NE
Spread: Penn State (-3)
TV: FS1 - Brian Custer (PxP), Robert Smith (analyst)

Weather: The day will start off chilly, but will warm up to the low 60s with some sunshine during the afternoon.

COACHES

James Franklin
Penn State record: 56-26 (7th year)
Overall record: 80-41 (10th year)
vs. Nebraska: 1-0

Scott Frost
Nebraska record: 9-17 (3rd year)
Overall record: 28-24 (5th year)
vs. Penn State: first meeting

FUN FACTS
Nebraska (902) and Penn State (898) are the seventh and eighth in all-time wins.....this will be Nebraska's first home game of the season following the cancellation of the Nebraska-Wisconsin game that had been set for Oct. 31.......the two teams are not scheduled to play again until 2024.

Nebraska Offense vs. Penn State Defense
The Huskers have been utilizing two quarterbacks with similar styles, junior Adrian Martinez and redshirt freshman Luke McCaffrey. While McCaffrey has the much higher completion percentage (76.2% vs 57.1%) on exactly half the amount of attempts, neither has thrown for a touchdown in two games, and each has one interception. Both are effective runners, and are first and second on the team in rushing yards, maintaining an average north of seven yards per rushing attempt. While Penn State's secondary might not be challenged as much this week, it will still need to find a way to prevent both players from escaping the pocket and picking up chunks of yardage, which has been a problem through the first three weeks. Scott Frost has yet to name a starting quarterback for Saturday, and may very well make his decision known when the Husker offense takes the field for the first time.

Outside of the two quarterbacks, Dedrick Mills is the only back to receive regular carries. Mills is a bruiser in the form of Maryland's Jake Funk and can help wear down a defense. Mills produced 92 yards from scrimmage in the Huskers most recent game, a 21-13 loss to Northwestern.

While Nebraska does not have a single dominant receiver, the quarterback tandem has done an outstanding job of spreading the ball around. There are nine Huskers with at least two catches, with Wan'Dale Robinson leading the way with 10 receptions for 81 yards.

The Huskers have allowed two sacks in each of their first two games against Ohio State and Northwestern.

While Penn State's defense has been surprisingly poor in several areas, the inability to cover downfield is proving most harmful. Despite the lack of scoring through the air this season, expect the Huskers to test the Nittany Lions secondary early and often with several deep balls.

Penn State Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
There’s no getting around it, Penn State’s offense is in serious trouble. Sean Clifford seems to have regressed following a promising first year as a starter, regularly overthrowing receivers and getting rattled in the pocket. This is in part to the offensive line struggling to provide ample protection and playing well below expectations considering the talent and experience. The running backs are relying on a true sophomore and two true freshman, while the top two backs are unavailable to see the field. Even Pat Freiermuth has had some uncharacteristic drops. Surprisingly enough, the group that came into the season with the most question marks - wide receiver - has been the highlight of the offense with the star turn of Jahan Dotson and sudden emergence of true freshman Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith. It also seems painfully obvious that a new offensive plan was implemented during an offseason with no spring practice and limited opportunities to gather for the necessary repetition to properly execute a new scheme. In fact, the gameplan often resembles something for an offense with a very green quarterback who was thrust into the lineup - not a second-year starter behind a veteran line.

Which brings us to our main point - it’s nearly impossible to begin to understand what to expect from this offense right now. While they have shown the ability to move the ball at times, they have yet to put together a complete game. In fact, they have yet to make it without an extended stretch to horrendous play that nearly removes the possibility of winning a game. I wish I could use this preview to discuss how the two sides match-up, how Penn State could take advantage of weaknesses and how they will need to circumvent the things the Huskers do well. However, a magic 8 ball would produce an accurate assessment based on what we’ve witnessed after three weeks.

One thing to look out for is the involvement of backup quarterback Will Levis, who James Franklin stated would be more involved in the offense moving forward. Levis is a very strong runner and performed well in relief of Clifford against Ohio State in 2019, but it was obvious he is in need of much more polish in his first career start against Buttgers the following week. The staff attempted to work Levis into the lineup in week one against Indianus, but two plays resulted in a delay of game penalty and a lost fumble inside the Sploogiers 10 yard line as Penn State was trying to reduce a deficit right before halftime.

Nebraska’s defense hasn’t done anything particularly well this season either, ranking in the bottom third of most defensive statistics and allowing 36.5 points per game (although in fairness, the ‘Huskers have played in two games with one of those coming against Justin Fields and the Buttguys).

Freshman safety Miles Farmer picked off two passes against Northwestern last week, and could do some damage if Clifford’s passes continue to sail on him. Middle linebacker Collin Miller leads the team with 13 tackles and is tied for the team lead with 2.0 TFLs.

Special Teams
Nebraska added a new kicker during the offseason when Connor Culp came to Lincoln from LSU as a grad transfer. He is 3-of-4 on field goal attempts this season with a long of 38 yards. He is 14-of-20 for his college career and hit his career long field goal of 47 yards back in 2017. Culp also handles kickoff duties, and has three touchbacks on eight attempts. Nebraska has an outstanding punter in William Przystup, a Michigan State transfer who is averaging 42.5 yards per punt with three punts over 50 yards in his first three games as starter.

Freshman running back Rahmir Johnson handles kickoff duties for the Huskers, averaging 22 yards per return on the young season.

Jake Pinegar has mirrored the team's early struggles, missing yet another field goal attempt against Maryland and is now 1-of-4 on the season after connecting on 11-of-12 in 2019. Jordan Stout has done a standout job in his first season as the starting punter, averaging 43.4 yards after replacing four-year starter Blake Gillikin. Parker Washington seems to be emerging as the primary returner as Devyn Ford focuses on carrying a much larger load at running back. Washington is averaging 19 yards per kickoff return, but has shown some promise of breaking one for six points at some point this season.

PREDICTION
Nebraska 27, Penn State 21

There's no way of putting it -- Penn State is simply stuck in a tailspin after three games. Unlike similar stretches in the past, there aren't one or two issues to be pointed at that can be fixed for the team to return to its winning ways. There are major issues on both sides of the ball that are well beyond some minor tweaks before the Nittany Lions can expect to come out victorious against just about every Big Ten opponent not named Ohio State.

Unfortunately, an 11 a.m. local kickoff time on the road is not the time and place to pull yourself out of a tailspan.

Nebraska has its fair share of issues, and it's reasonable to believe that Penn State could earn its first victory of the season on Saturday. But this team has shown little reason to believe they will be up for the task after the most demoralizing loss of the James Franklin era this past Saturday.

Jahan Dotson keeps his hot streak going for two reasons - he has developed into an absolutely fantastic, gamebreaking receiver as a junior, but also, the offense doesn’t have too much else going for it. It will be another big game for Dotson with 10 catches for 150 yards and two scores. Parker Washington will continue his rapid development, with a career high 90 receiving yards.

The defense puts in a strong effort, but are stymied by a couple late Nebraska drives after spending too much time on the field in the second half. Tariq Castro-Fields leads the way with seven tackles and an interception, while Shaka Toney adds another sack and two TFLs.