Offense+Defense vs. P4 (thru October 25th)

[Blakejc]

Offensive production vs. P4 competition thru week 10 (6 games) (national rank in parentheses) - [P4 rank out of 68 teams in blocks]

PPG - 25.5 (49th) [41st/68]
YPG: 321.2 (80th) [53rd/68]
YPPlay: 5.08 (68th) [47th/68]

Defensive production vs. P4 competition thru week 10 (national rank in parentheses) - [P4 rank out of 68 teams in blocks]

PPG - 25.0 (45th) [33rd/68]
YPG: 322.8 (22nd) [15th/68]
YPPlay: 5.37 (37th) [25th/68]

Defense doing about what was expected. Giving up more points than they should. Explosive runs allowed and Red Zone defense have been awful. Put a lid on that and they're close to elite.

Offense is bad, but not terrible. Our points look better than the yards because of great field position plus they get to count our 3 non-offensive scores.

Butler and the D can and should do better, but the fact that his unit is always the first to blame infuriates me. I imagine 2/3 to 3/4 of our NIL and rev share is tied up in the offense. Dana and those boys need to figure it out. Not at all what it should look like with the amount of resources and talent we have.

 

[ShortSideOption]

Good post here... I have no idea where to find the conference only stats. The Akron and HCU games really give us a nice bump, but to be fair, non-conference games do that for a lot of teams. We just aren't playing a Texas in non-conference like Ohio State.

Butler is doing a little better than I thought he would, but we need to stay where we are in PPG and can't dip into the 50s. That will have us staring 7-5 right in the face. We are going to have a tough time with USC coming off a bye, but if we can shut down the two teams without a HC we should be sitting 8-3 with the Cockeyes coming to town.

What I'm disappointed in is the offense. And that's purely because our OL is nowhere near what we heard it would be all spring and fall. The good news is we are twice as good as we were with Satterfield running things.

Two excellent hires by Rhule with Ekeler and Holgo IMO, I would love to see where we would be in 2025 if we had those caliber of hires from the beginning.

 

[Ext. 55]

We are gonna need a very good offensive game against USC. Long drives that give us the time of possession advantage and ones that end in scores.

 

[ShortSideOption]

We are gonna need a very good offensive game against USC. Long drives that give us the time of possession advantage and ones that end in scores.

We will see how good Butler is defensively these next 4 games...

 

[Blakejc]

Rhule is 6-0 this year when winning the field position battle. 11-3 over the last 3 years. The 3 losses were Minnesota in 2023, @Ohio State and UCLA in 2024. -5 turnover margin in those 3 games.

It’d be great if the offense could find another 50-75 yards/game and the defense could tighten up by about 25 yards a game, but our formula this year appears to be: win field position, win turnover margin, win the game.

 

[Mavsker]

@Blakejc in these rankings, did you also remove all other P4 teams' non-P4 matchups from their stats?

 

[Blakejc]

@Blakejc in these rankings, did you also remove all other P4 teams' non-P4 matchups from their stats?

Yes, cfbstats.com can toggle the stats to only include p4 opponents. So the national rankings includes teams like north Texas or old dominion who have played 1-2 p4 opponents. Thats the national ranking in parentheses out of the 135 or so teams. From there I go and filter through only the p4 teams and determine how we rank among just P4 teams.

 

[Mavsker]

Yes, cfbstats.com can toggle the stats to only include p4 opponents. So the national rankings includes teams like north Texas or old dominion who have played 1-2 p4 opponents. Thats the national ranking in parentheses out of the 135 or so teams. From there I go and filter through only the p4 teams and determine how we rank among just P4 rank teams

 

[Blakejc]

We will see how good Butler is defensively these next 4 games...

Cockeye is scary.

Their defense against P4 opponents:

PPG: 6th/68
YPG: 4th/68
YPP: 5th/68

 

[ShortSideOption]

Cockeye is scary.

Their defense against P4 opponents:

PPG: 6th/68
YPG: 4th/68
YPP: 5th/68

I had us beating them before the season and losing to Penn State... Cockeye is a very bad matchup for us. Conversely, I feel much better about Penn State coming off a bye.

 

[Carm]

per CFBstats we are also averaging 26 more yards in punt returns per game and 40 more yards in kickoff returns per game than our opponents, which contributes to this (from BCF Toys)

 

[HCFord1]

Good post here... I have no idea where to find the conference only stats. The Akron and HCU games really give us a nice bump, but to be fair, non-conference games do that for a lot of teams. We just aren't playing a Texas in non-conference like Ohio State.

Butler is doing a little better than I thought he would, but we need to stay where we are in PPG and can't dip into the 50s. That will have us staring 7-5 right in the face. We are going to have a tough time with USC coming off a bye, but if we can shut down the two teams without a HC we should be sitting 8-3 with the Cockeyes coming to town.

What I'm disappointed in is the offense. And that's purely because our OL is nowhere near what we heard it would be all spring and fall. The good news is we are twice as good as we were with Satterfield running things.

Two excellent hires by Rhule with Ekeler and Holgo IMO, I would love to see where we would be in 2025 if we had those caliber of hires from the beginning.

I mean we did beat a ranked team during our non conference.

 

[ShortSideOption]

I mean we did beat a ranked team during our non conference.

I mean I'll take it and I hate doing this because it minimizes a good stat for us, but I'm only acting like that's a good win due to their ranking.

Who is their best win? Cockeye State who is 9th in the Big12, Baylor who is 10th, Kansas who is 11th, UCF who is 13th, or OKState who is dead last? They are playing in a terrible conference and have played the worst teams from it so far. Nebraska would be undefeated and top 5 in the country if we had their schedule.

I'll credit that as a good win once I see them play Utah, BYU, and TCU.

But I think the point I was trying to make is that still 25% of our overall stats are against HCU and Akron who we beat 68-0 and 59-7. It will, and has, start to creep more towards reality.

 

[HCFord1]

I mean I'll take it and I hate doing this because it minimizes a good stat for us, but I'm only acting like that's a good win due to their ranking.

Who is their best win? Cockeye State who is 9th in the Big12, Baylor who is 10th, Kansas who is 11th, UCF who is 13th, or OKState who is dead last? They are playing in a terrible conference and have played the worst teams from it so far. Nebraska would be undefeated and top 5 in the country if we had their schedule.

I'll credit that as a good win once I see them play Utah, BYU, and TCU.

But I think the point I was trying to make is that still 25% of our overall stats are against HCU and Akron who we beat 68-0 and 59-7. It will, and has, start to creep more towards reality.

You don’t hate to do this because you’ve been pounding the drum all year that we’re going to regress on defense because Tony White left. You’ve got this weird vendetta against the current defensive staff because of a guy who’s now getting his shit pushed in down in Tallahassee. I was a Tony White fan and defended him last year when a lot of fans turned against him, but JoBu has done a pretty damn good job with a pretty deficient defensive roster and I’m having a hard time imagining that Tony White would have that unit performing any better.

 

[Blakejc]

You don’t hate to do this because you’ve been pounding the drum all year that we’re going to regress on defense because Tony White left. You’ve got this weird vendetta against the current defensive staff because of a guy who’s now getting his shit pushed in down in Tallahassee.

I don’t think SSO has a vendetta against Butler, but he has been consistent that there’d be a drop off defensively. And he’s right.

White may have done better, but you have to remember Butler changed how we play philosophically. Butler is stopping the pass first, White was trying to stop the run first. Personally, I’d have preferred white’s philosophy against our schedule. We’re avoiding a lot of the elite QB’s in the league this year.

I’d have rather told Underwood he’s got to beat us with his arm. Same with Lindsey from Minnesota. If they hit a bunch of explosive passes then tip your cap, but I know White wouldn’t have given up the 4-5 explosive runs that killed us in those two games.

All that to say, it’s an interesting thought, but Butler is still doing enough to win. Dana is the one who needs to be questioned and pressed. We should’ve rushed for 250 against those guys yesterday. Barney Cotton could’ve figured that out.

 

[SlumpBuster]

Offensive production vs. P4 competition thru week 10 (6 games) (national rank in parentheses) - [P4 rank out of 68 teams in blocks]

PPG - 25.5 (49th) [41st/68]
YPG: 321.2 (80th) [53rd/68]
YPPlay: 5.08 (68th) [47th/68]

Defensive production vs. P4 competition thru week 10 (national rank in parentheses) - [P4 rank out of 68 teams in blocks]

PPG - 25.0 (45th) [33rd/68]
YPG: 322.8 (22nd) [15th/68]
YPPlay: 5.37 (37th) [25th/68]

Defense doing about what was expected. Giving up more points than they should. Explosive runs allowed and Red Zone defense have been awful. Put a lid on that and they're close to elite.

Offense is bad, but not terrible. Our points look better than the yards because of great field position plus they get to count our 3 non-offensive scores.

Butler and the D can and should do better, but the fact that his unit is always the first to blame infuriates me. I imagine 2/3 to 3/4 of our NIL and rev share is tied up in the offense. Dana and those boys need to figure it out. Not at all what it should look like with the amount of resources and talent we have.

Good stats, don't quite understand your descriptions...top 50 in ppg is not "bad". It's almost the definition of decent/average.

 

[Blakejc]

Good stats, don't quite understand your descriptions...top 50 in ppg is not "bad". It's almost the definition of decent/average.

50/133 is decent (although nationally the goal should be top 40), but when you take out all the non P4 teams, and realize we’re 41/68 it’s below average/bad, especially when you consider how much we have invested in the offense.

 

[Flabio]

I don’t think SSO has a vendetta against Butler, but he has been consistent that there’d be a drop off defensively. And he’s right.

White may have done better, but you have to remember Butler changed how we play philosophically. Butler is stopping the pass first, White was trying to stop the run first. Personally, I’d have preferred white’s philosophy against our schedule. We’re avoiding a lot of the elite QB’s in the league this year.

I’d have rather told Underwood he’s got to beat us with his arm. Same with Lindsey from Minnesota. If they hit a bunch of explosive passes then tip your cap, but I know White wouldn’t have given up the 4-5 explosive runs that killed us in those two games.

All that to say, it’s an interesting thought, but Butler is still doing enough to win. Dana is the one who needs to be questioned and pressed. We should’ve rushed for 250 against those guys yesterday. Barney Cotton could’ve figured that out.

Drop off due to TW leaving or losing Ty and Nash?

 

[Baron Winnebago]

Drop off due to TW leaving or losing Ty and Nash?

Yes

 

[Kaladin]

Drop off due to TW leaving or losing Ty and Nash?

This defense would be lethal with T & N