Nebrasketball: Quad breakdown + odds to dance

[PonyBoy]

We are 9-0 right now...

- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance
- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed

12/8/25 results
Q1 = 0-0
Q2 = 3-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; crayton, Winthrop
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games
Dec - Wisconsin (Q2), @ Illinois (Q1), North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q1), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q2), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)

January is absolutely brutal with 5 road games and 4 of them Q1's.

We need 12 wins, between now & the last regular season game. Let the countdown begin...

(Yes, I'll eventually do a breakdown in groups of 4 games, like the last 2 seasons).

 

[Jim14510]

Oregon (Q4),

Didn't realize how bad Oregon was this year. What the hell happened up there?

 

[Jim14510]

Appreciate you doing this Pony. I refer to it a lot during the season.

 

[Lionsfan93]

We are 9-0 right now...

- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance
- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed

12/8/25 results
Q1 = 0-0
Q2 = 3-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; crayton, Winthrop
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games
Dec - Wisconsin (Q2), @ Illinois (Q1), North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q1), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q2), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)

January is absolutely brutal with 5 road games and 4 of them Q1's.

We need 12 wins, between now & the last regular season game. Let the countdown begin...

(Yes, I'll eventually do a breakdown in groups of 4 games, like the last 2 seasons).

Here's how I see it...

Must-win games:
12/21 - North Dakota
12/30 - New Hampshire
1/13 - Oregon
1/21 - Washington
2/14 - Northwestern
2/21 - Penn St
2/25 - Maryland
3/8 - Cockeye

Coin-flip games:
12/10 - Wisconsin
1/17 - @Northwestern
1/24 - @Minnesota
2/7 - @Rutgers

Games to steal:
12/13 - @Illinois
1/2 - Michigan St
1/5 - @Ohio St
1/10 - @Indiana
2/1 - Illinois
2/10 - Purdue
2/17 - @Cockeye
2/28 - @USC
3/3 - @UCLA

Only game not included is @Michigan. I just don't see that as a winnable game with as tough as they have looked and it being on the road.

We need to win all of our must-wins, spit out coin-flips and steal two games.

 

[Kaladin]

Here's how I see it...

Must-win games:
12/21 - North Dakota
12/30 - New Hampshire
1/13 - Oregon
1/21 - Washington
2/14 - Northwestern
2/21 - Penn St
2/25 - Maryland
3/8 - Cockeye

Coin-flip games:
12/10 - Wisconsin
1/17 - @Northwestern
1/24 - @Minnesota
2/7 - @Rutgers

Games to steal:
1/2 - Michigan St
1/5 - @Ohio St
1/10 - @Indiana
2/1 - Illinois
2/10 - Purdue
2/17 - @Cockeye
2/28 - @USC
3/3 - @UCLA

Only game not included is @Michigan. I just don't see that as a winnable game with as tough as they have looked and it being on the road.

We need to win all of our must-wins, spit out coin-flips and steal two games.

honestly I don’t see a loss on that schedule

 

[Juro]

Didn't realize how bad Oregon was this year. What the hell happened up there?

 

[Lfaller23]

Here's how I see it...

Must-win games:
12/21 - North Dakota
12/30 - New Hampshire
1/13 - Oregon
1/21 - Washington
2/14 - Northwestern
2/21 - Penn St
2/25 - Maryland
3/8 - Cockeye

Coin-flip games:
12/10 - Wisconsin
1/17 - @Northwestern
1/24 - @Minnesota
2/7 - @Rutgers

Games to steal:
1/2 - Michigan St
1/5 - @Ohio St
1/10 - @Indiana
2/1 - Illinois
2/10 - Purdue
2/17 - @Cockeye
2/28 - @USC
3/3 - @UCLA

Only game not included is @Michigan. I just don't see that as a winnable game with as tough as they have looked and it being on the road.

We need to win all of our must-wins, spit out coin-flips and steal two games.

@illinois this Saturday isn’t on your list either. Gonna be a tough week for sure.

 

[Lionsfan93]

@illinois this Saturday isn’t on your list either. Gonna be a tough week for sure.

Shoot - good catch. I guess it's a game to steal...but that's a tough one for sure...

 

[Jim14510]

I'd love to steal that Mich St game. Them and Michigan look really solid.

 

[PonyBoy]

@HuskerGarrett @Jim14510

can we get this pinned like last season?

 

[PonyBoy]

For reference purposes. Last time we made the dance...

2023-2024
Q1 = 3-8
Q2 = 4-3
Q3 = 7-0
Q4 = 7-0
B1G tournament + dance aren't included

19-1 at home, only loss to sweater vests. 2-8 Q1 & Q2 record on the road in B1G play.

The 2 neutral site wins over KSU & OU will be pivotal for us, likely Q2 wins, which trump our solo Q1 non-conf (KSU) road win in 2023-2024. And the queers from Omaha is icing on the cake if they end up a Q2 win.

Just keep all of this in mind when things get rocky...

 

[Baron Winnebago]

For reference purposes. Last time we made the dance...

2023-2024
Q1 = 3-8
Q2 = 4-3
Q3 = 7-0
Q4 = 7-0
B1G tournament + dance aren't included

19-1 at home, only loss to sweater vests. 2-8 Q1 & Q2 record on the road in B1G play.

The 2 neutral site wins over KSU & OU will be pivotal for us, likely Q2 wins, which trump our solo Q1 non-conf (KSU) road win in 2023-2024. And the queers from Omaha is icing on the cake if they end up a Q2 win.

Just keep all of this in mind when things get rocky...