Nebrasketball: Quad breakdown + odds to dance ** Updated 1/19/26 **

[...TrueColors...]

That’s Fredball for ya. I remember when he first got here and was talking about his offense. He truly doesn’t believe in mid range jumpers. Take a couple steps back and get an extra point or get to the basket.

Theres probably a lot of stats out there for what he follows.

I’ve tracked the shot charts every game and it’s very apparent the rules here are you don’t take shots outside the paint unless it’s a 3 ball.

Berke’s 15 footer to start the game Saturday was the only exception in the last 5 or 6 games.

 

[Goskers07]

I’ve tracked the shot charts every game and it’s very apparent the rules here are you don’t take shots outside the paint unless it’s a 3 ball.

Berke’s 15 footer to start the game Saturday was the only exception in the last 5 or 6 games.

Makes sense. His teams always seem to move best that way. The only exception I can think of is Brice as he was nails from mid range.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

I’ve tracked the shot charts every game and it’s very apparent the rules here are you don’t take shots outside the paint unless it’s a 3 ball.

Berke’s 15 footer to start the game Saturday was the only exception in the last 5 or 6 games.

Sandfort had a fun comment after the Illinois game which was "I opened with a contested mid range and I'm glad it went in otherwise I would have gotten reamed"

 

[iruletheskool]

I’ve tracked the shot charts every game and it’s very apparent the rules here are you don’t take shots outside the paint unless it’s a 3 ball.

Berke’s 15 footer to start the game Saturday was the only exception in the last 5 or 6 games.

I think BK got away with it because he was standing on the FT line alone

 

[TampaBaySkers]

I think BK got away with it because he was standing on the FT line alone

Yep - that’s a green light all day long

 

[Dell Husker]

I’ve tracked the shot charts every game and it’s very apparent the rules here are you don’t take shots outside the paint unless it’s a 3 ball.

Berke’s 15 footer to start the game Saturday was the only exception in the last 5 or 6 games.

IIRC donors got a special video of him breaking down his offense the year he was hired. I think it was leaked on the scrolls. Wish I could find it again

 

[PonyBoy]

** Sorry for the delay **

As of 1/12/26 results (16-0, 5-0)

This week we went 2-0; 2 wins against Q1's at Ohio State & at Indiana. Currently remain #11 in NET...

Net positive - gained 2 more Q1 wins (Buckeyes & Hoosiers)
Net negative - none (Oklahoma & New Mexico flipped quads as did FIU & Winthrop)

Q1 = 5-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, New Mexico (Q2 last week)
Q2 = 4-0; Wisconsin, Pickle Smoochers, Oklahoma (Q1 last week), Kansas State
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop (was Q4 last week)
Q4 = 6-0; FIU (was Q3 last week), USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, New Hampshire, UMES
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Maryland

- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance
- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed

As of 1/19/26 results (18-0, 7-0)

This week we went 2-0; 1 win against Q2 at Northwestern and Q3 Oregon. Currently #6 in NET...

Net positive - gained 1 more Q2 win (at Northwestern) and 1 more Q3 win (Oregon)
Net negative - none (all quad opponents remained the same)

Q1 = 5-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, New Mexico
Q2 = 5-0; Wisconsin, Pickle Smoochers, Oklahoma, Northwestern, Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; Oregon, Winthrop
Q4 = 6-0; FIU, USC Upstate, North Dakota, West Georgia, UMES, New Hampshire
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Maryland moved from Q4 to Q3

Spoiler

As of 1/12/26 results (16-0, 5-0)

Spoiler

This week we went 2-0; 2 wins against Q1's at Ohio State & at Indiana. Currently remain #11 in NET...

Net positive - gained 2 more Q1 wins (Buckeyes & Hoosiers)
Net negative - none (Oklahoma & New Mexico flipped quads as did FIU & Winthrop)

Q1 = 5-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, New Mexico (Q2 last week)
Q2 = 4-0; Wisconsin, Pickle Smoochers, Oklahoma (Q1 last week), Kansas State
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop (was Q4 last week)
Q4 = 6-0; FIU (was Q3 last week), USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, New Hampshire, UMES
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Maryland

 

[kaz36]

Anyone track the shot charts game by game?

We shoot lay ups or we shoot 3s. Those 12-18 foot jump shots don’t happen in this offense.

That’s Fredball for ya. I remember when he first got here and was talking about his offense. He truly doesn’t believe in mid range jumpers. Take a couple steps back and get an extra point or get to the basket.

Theres probably a lot of stats out there for what he follows.

I’ve tracked the shot charts every game and it’s very apparent the rules here are you don’t take shots outside the paint unless it’s a 3 ball.

Berke’s 15 footer to start the game Saturday was the only exception in the last 5 or 6 games.

Makes sense. His teams always seem to move best that way. The only exception I can think of is Brice as he was nails from mid range.

I think BK got away with it because he was standing on the FT line alone

 

[herbsinator]

If you look at the stats, Nebraska is very high in terms of the number of 3s taken, high in terms of 3 pt fg% and very high in terms of forcing the other team to take a lot of threes. So the games come down to the fact that we like our shooters a lot better than your shooters.