Nebrasketball: Quad breakdown + odds to dance ** Updated 1/12/26 **

[Cavalot]

I thought this was a good breakdown.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

FIFY
IDK what it is with Minnesota but our men’s sports teams all seem to play like ass there.

That state brings everyone down except the Somalians

 

[BIGSTICK67]

At no point, ever, should we be hoping for Nebrasketball to lose a game. Hell, an undefeated regular season would get a banner hung alone

- Signed Cockeye football team who lost 2 games

 

[ThankGODforWVB]

I thought this was funny and rewarding.....

 

[V-Doub]

Do they recognize that title?

IDK? 🤷‍♂️ I thought they did, maybe not.

 

[ThankGODforWVB]

I was talking to my wife the other day about Nebraska basketball and Fred. My wife is a really good sports fan, knows more about the inside nature of baseball than anyone else I know (met Sandy Koufax when she was a kid, and he was still playing, lives and breathes Reds baseball, can breakdown rosters like nobodies business).

We were talking about how Fred changed his perception of how to build a roster for the B1G, and it occurred to me that what happened was Fred realized that if he built teams like he did at ISU, and in the NBA, the average B1G team would beat him regularly because they were just big and did the right thing 87% of the time. Not necessarily uber talented, but uber dependable.

So what Fred did was build the best "B1G model basketball team you could imagine". This team is highly dependable in doing the right thing, getting a body on a body, shooting the best option shot, making the best option shot possible with flow and passing. Challenging players who have the ball consistently. Getting position under and around the net so that dribble shots are hard, and rebounding is always in their advantage.

Not necessarily UBER talented, but UBER UBER dependable and knowledgable.

 

[Cornicator]

IDK? 🤷‍♂️ I thought they did, maybe not.

You're right. I checked on it, and they do recognize it.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

I was talking to my wife the other day about Nebraska basketball and Fred. My wife is a really good sports fan, knows more about the inside nature of baseball than anyone else I know (met Sandy Koufax when she was a kid, and he was still playing, lives and breathes Reds baseball, can breakdown rosters like nobodies business).

We were talking about how Fred changed his perception of how to build a roster for the B1G, and it occurred to me that what happened was Fred realized that if he built teams like he did at ISU, and in the NBA, the average B1G team would beat him regularly because they were just big and did the right thing 87% of the time. Not necessarily uber talented, but uber dependable.

So what Fred did was build the best "B1G model basketball team you could imagine". This team is highly dependable in doing the right thing, getting a body on a body, shooting the best option shot, making the best option shot possible with flow and passing. Challenging players who have the ball consistently. Getting position under and around the net so that dribble shots are hard, and rebounding is always in their advantage.

Not necessarily UBER talented, but UBER UBER dependable and knowledgable.

The defense is what impresses me the most. It’s the reason we stay in games when our shooting goes cold. When our shooting is hot then we blow out teams like whisky.

 

[PonyBoy]

- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance
- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed

As of 1/4/26 results (14-0, 3-0)

This week we went 2-0; 1 win against Q1 Michigan State & Q4 New Hampshire. Currently remain #11 in NET...

Net positive - gained 2 Q1 wins (Sparty, Sooners)
Net negative - none (FIU & Winthrop flipped quads)

Q1 = 3-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Oklahoma (was Q2 last week)
Q2 = 4-0; Pickle Smoochers, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Kansas State
Q3 = 1-0; FIU (was Q4 last week)
Q4 = 6-0; Winthrop (was Q3 last week), USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, New Hampshire, UMES
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
No quad changes with future opponents this week

Spoiler: week of 12/21/25 results [B

As 12/21/25 results (12-0)[/B]

This week we went 1-0, 1 win against Q4 North Dakota. Currently #11 in NET...

Q1 = 1-0; Illinois
Q2 = 5-0; Kansas State, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Pickle Smoochers (was Q3 last week), Wisconsin
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop
Q4 = 5-0; FIU, USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, Maryland Eastern Shore
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Dec - New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
All 3 Quad changes improved by 1 quad. Changes likely for another 3-4 weeks.

Spoiler: prior week info

As 12/14/25 results (11-0)

This week we went 2-0, 1 win each in Q1 & Q2. Currently #14 in NET...

Q1 = 1-0; Illinois
Q2 = 4-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State, Wisconsin
Q3 = 2-0; Winthrop, crayton
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Dec - North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q3), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
All 4 Quad changes dropped down 1 quad. And will likely change

Spoiler: prior week info

12/8/25 results
Q1 = 0-0
Q2 = 3-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; crayton, Winthrop
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games
Dec - Wisconsin (Q2), @ Illinois (Q1), North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q1), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q2), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)

January is absolutely brutal with 5 road games and 4 of them Q1's.

We need 12 wins, between now & the last regular season game. Let the countdown begin...

(Yes, I'll eventually do a breakdown in groups of 4 games, like the last 2 seasons)

- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance
- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed

As of 1/11/26 results (16-0, 5-0)

This week we went 2-0; 2 wins against Q1's at Ohio State & at Indiana. Currently remain #11 in NET...

Net positive - gained 2 more Q1 wins (Sparty, Sooners)
Net negative - none (Oklahoma & New Mexico flipped quads as did FIU & Winthrop)

Q1 = 5-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, New Mexico (Q2 last week)
Q2 = 4-0; Wisconsin, Pickle Smoochers, Oklahoma (Q1 last week), Kansas State
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop (was Q4 last week)
Q4 = 6-0; FIU (was Q3 last week), USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, New Hampshire, UMES
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Maryland

Spoiler: week of 1/11/2025 results [B

As of 1/4/26 results (14-0, 3-0)[/b]

This week we went 2-0; 1 win against Q1 Michigan State & Q4 New Hampshire. Currently remain #11 in NET...

Net positive - gained 2 Q1 wins (Sparty, Sooners)
Net negative - none (FIU & Winthrop flipped quads)

Q1 = 3-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Oklahoma (was Q2 last week)
Q2 = 4-0; Pickle Smoochers, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Kansas State
Q3 = 1-0; FIU (was Q4 last week)
Q4 = 6-0; Winthrop (was Q3 last week), USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, New Hampshire, UMES
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
No quad changes with future opponents this week

Spoiler: week of 12/21/25 results [B

As 12/21/25 results (12-0)[/B]

This week we went 1-0, 1 win against Q4 North Dakota. Currently #11 in NET...

Q1 = 1-0; Illinois
Q2 = 5-0; Kansas State, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Pickle Smoochers (was Q3 last week), Wisconsin
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop
Q4 = 5-0; FIU, USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, Maryland Eastern Shore
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Dec - New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
All 3 Quad changes improved by 1 quad. Changes likely for another 3-4 weeks.

Spoiler: prior week info

As 12/14/25 results (11-0)

This week we went 2-0, 1 win each in Q1 & Q2. Currently #14 in NET...

Q1 = 1-0; Illinois
Q2 = 4-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State, Wisconsin
Q3 = 2-0; Winthrop, crayton
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Dec - North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q3), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
All 4 Quad changes dropped down 1 quad. And will likely change

Spoiler: prior week info

12/8/25 results
Q1 = 0-0
Q2 = 3-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; crayton, Winthrop
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games
Dec - Wisconsin (Q2), @ Illinois (Q1), North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q1), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q2), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)

January is absolutely brutal with 5 road games and 4 of them Q1's.

We need 12 wins, between now & the last regular season game. Let the countdown begin...

(Yes, I'll eventually do a breakdown in groups of 4 games, like the last 2 seasons)

 

[PonyBoy]

- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance
- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed

As of 1/4/26 results (14-0, 3-0)

This week we went 2-0; 1 win against Q1 Michigan State & Q4 New Hampshire. Currently remain #11 in NET...

Net positive - gained 2 Q1 wins (Buckeyes & Hoosiers)
Net negative - none (FIU & Winthrop flipped quads)

Q1 = 3-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Oklahoma (was Q2 last week)
Q2 = 4-0; Pickle Smoochers, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Kansas State
Q3 = 1-0; FIU (was Q4 last week)
Q4 = 6-0; Winthrop (was Q3 last week), USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, New Hampshire, UMES
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
No quad changes with future opponents this week

Spoiler: week of 12/21/25 results [B

As 12/21/25 results (12-0)[/B]

This week we went 1-0, 1 win against Q4 North Dakota. Currently #11 in NET...

Q1 = 1-0; Illinois
Q2 = 5-0; Kansas State, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Pickle Smoochers (was Q3 last week), Wisconsin
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop
Q4 = 5-0; FIU, USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, Maryland Eastern Shore
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Dec - New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
All 3 Quad changes improved by 1 quad. Changes likely for another 3-4 weeks.

Spoiler: prior week info

As 12/14/25 results (11-0)

This week we went 2-0, 1 win each in Q1 & Q2. Currently #14 in NET...

Q1 = 1-0; Illinois
Q2 = 4-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State, Wisconsin
Q3 = 2-0; Winthrop, crayton
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Dec - North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q3), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
All 4 Quad changes dropped down 1 quad. And will likely change

Spoiler: prior week info

12/8/25 results
Q1 = 0-0
Q2 = 3-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; crayton, Winthrop
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games
Dec - Wisconsin (Q2), @ Illinois (Q1), North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q1), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q2), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)

January is absolutely brutal with 5 road games and 4 of them Q1's.

We need 12 wins, between now & the last regular season game. Let the countdown begin...

(Yes, I'll eventually do a breakdown in groups of 4 games, like the last 2 seasons)

** Sorry for the delay **

As of 1/12/26 results (16-0, 5-0)

This week we went 2-0; 2 wins against Q1's at Ohio State & at Indiana. Currently remain #11 in NET...

Net positive - gained 2 more Q1 wins (Buckeyes & Hoosiers)
Net negative - none (Oklahoma & New Mexico flipped quads as did FIU & Winthrop)

Q1 = 5-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, New Mexico (Q2 last week)
Q2 = 4-0; Wisconsin, Pickle Smoochers, Oklahoma (Q1 last week), Kansas State
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop (was Q4 last week)
Q4 = 6-0; FIU (was Q3 last week), USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, New Hampshire, UMES
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Maryland

 

[Seaofred92]

 

[kctitans]

Now attempt to not make a mess in your pants when you study this!

Nolan is now predicting Nebraska will finish 30 - 1 in regular season .........
View attachment 65533

They used to say that to Biden when they gave him his daily briefing

 

[jickey moseph]

You probably should get the next four games. They’re not easy. But I don’t think they’re as difficult as the slate has been to this point.

Oregon
@Northwestern
Washington
@Minnesota

That puts you 20-0 headed to Michigan.

January was the month that I worried about. Fred since 2022-2023 is 8-17 in the month of January and it’s by far his worst month. Even if you split the next 4 you’re in great shape. I wouldn’t hate winning the next 4 though..

It is Freduary for a reason

 

[1HuskerDad]

 

[Huskerbuck85]

That state brings everyone down except the Somalians

Trump’ll get em

 

[djw004]

We could make rings even.

Mark Manning style...I like it

 

[RedSavage]

 

[Cornicator]

** Sorry for the delay **

As of 1/12/26 results (16-0, 5-0)

This week we went 2-0; 2 wins against Q1's at Ohio State & at Indiana. Currently remain #11 in NET...

Net positive - gained 2 more Q1 wins (Buckeyes & Hoosiers)
Net negative - none (Oklahoma & New Mexico flipped quads as did FIU & Winthrop)

Q1 = 5-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, New Mexico (Q2 last week)
Q2 = 4-0; Wisconsin, Pickle Smoochers, Oklahoma (Q1 last week), Kansas State
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop (was Q4 last week)
Q4 = 6-0; FIU (was Q3 last week), USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, New Hampshire, UMES
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Maryland

Some thoughts about previous wins turning into Q1:

Upsets do happen, but if New Mexico can hold serve on their home court, where they're nearly unbeatable over the last few seasons, I think they finish the season at 25-6, and will easily remain a Q1 win.

If Wisconsin beats Minnesota tonight, I think they win their next 6 games and go into back to back road games at Indiana and Illinois well within the Q1 top 35 slot.

Pickle Smoochers can lose every God Damn game the rest of the way, and it won't bother me. But they actually have a decent shot of getting to 14-7 before hosting UCONN at home. WIth home games vs. UConn, Seton Hall, and Villanova, its conceivable that Pickle Smoochers could win enough games to easily move into that top 35 of the NET.

Oklahoma has back to back home games vs. top 25 Florida and Alabama. Those two games will tell us whether they can ever get back into Q1 territory. If they lose them both, I think its doubtful that the OU win will ever reach Q1 again this season.

To make a long story short, I think New Mexico easily remains Quad 1 win all season. Wisconsin should get there. Pickle Smoochers has a marginal shot. Oklahoma seems like a long shot at this point.


I personally think Nebraska finishes with 10 to 12 Quad 1 wins.

@PonyBoy , is there any site you know of where you can locate the number of Q1 wins from previous #1 seeds in the NCAA tourney?