Nebraska's record at getting 4 stars drafted

[Carm]

From 4-star to NFL Draft – Bottom 10

TEAM	4-STARS SIGNED	4-STARS DRAFTED	% DRAFTED
Nebraska	67	3	4.5%
Tennessee	105	10	9.5%
Michigan State	52	5	9.6%
Texas	146	17	11.6%
Rutgers	24	3	12.5%
Texas A&M	100	13	13.0%
Oregon	87	12	13.8%
TCU	36	5	13.9%
Maryland	36	5	13.9%
Missouri	28	4	14.3%

Note: for kids enrolled 2009-19 and drafted 2012-2022

 

[Carm]

conference report card

5-stars	% Drafted	4-stars	% Drafted	3-stars	% Drafted
ACC	64.6%	ACC	25.6%	SEC	9.7%
Big Ten	63.6%	SEC	23.1%	Big Ten	8.9%
SEC	59.6%	Big Ten	21.7%	ACC	8.5%
Pac-12	58.6%	Big 12	19.0%	Pac-12	8.1%
Big 12	28.6%	Pac-12	18.9%	Big 12	6.7%

 

[Herbie]

Is this bad?

 

[Drue629]

 

[Frogsker30]

Now do 3 stars.
then no stars

 

[BIG TONE SOPRANO]

God who cares lol

 

[CornFed Gregger]

Honestly I think this is more of indictment on recruiting rankings. Did not expect a drop from 5 to 4 being nearly 40%

 

[Kaladin]

That’s ugly

MKR will pry send 80%?of his recruits to the NFL

 

[Carm]

Honestly I think this is more of indictment on recruiting rankings. Did not expect a drop from 5 to 4 being nearly 40%

? There are generally 256 picks in the NFL draft. There are usually about 30 5 stars and 300-350 4 stars. Just from there a lot of 4 stars can't get drafted.

Then picture then changes quite a bit from 17 to 22 or 23. Some kids get a little better, some get dramatically better. And since quality of competition in HS is never easy to gauge, the picture that comes off video at 2017 may not be the right one.

Hard to see how the initial rankings could be much better.

20%-25% of 4 stars going to the NFL has been the outcome quite a few years now.

 

[Carm]

Now do 3 stars.
then no stars

The Athletic did these charts and didn't provide the detail behind the charts.

 

[CornFed Gregger]

? There are generally 256 picks in the NFL draft. There are usually about 30 5 stars and 300-350 4 stars. Just from there a lot of 4 stars can't get drafted.

Then picture then changes quite a bit from 17 to 22 or 23. Some kids get a little better, some get dramatically better. And since quality of competition in HS is never easy to gauge, the picture that comes off video at 2017 may not be the right one.

Hard to see how the initial rankings could be much better.

20%-25% of 4 stars going to the NFL has been the outcome quite a few years now.

Like I said, seems pretty flawed when the rankings themselves are based on nfl potential & ur hit rate for the second tier is 87/350. NFL is 50%-1st round, 43%-2nd 32%-3rd so i kinda expected more consistency than a 40% drop & part of that is these recruiting services number one priority is not in reliable or accurate scouting evals.

The difference between a 4 or 3 star can be what camps you attend, what state you live in, & which offers they have/school committed to. Nebraska’s development has sucked but maybe the days of our coaches trying to win the rankings should come to an end since we’re not gonna be landing any out of state 5 stars.

 

[Carm]

Like I said, seems pretty flawed when the rankings themselves are based on nfl potential & ur hit rate for the second tier is 87/350. NFL is 50%-1st round, 43%-2nd 32%-3rd so i kinda expected more consistency than a 40% drop & part of that is these recruiting services number one priority is not in reliable or accurate scouting evals.

They are not predicting who will be drafted. They are identifying a pool of players that have the potential to be drafted (5 stars is round 1, 4 star is rounds 1-3 potential, not rounds 1-8 potential. I.e., they are saying they are identifying 350 guys with the most potential to be in the first 96 picks. That reflects the high degree of uncertainty.). That's a significant difference.

You actually expect any scout(s) could take a bunch of 17 years old and identify with, let's say, a greater than 509% success rate, who would be drafted in 5 years?

 

[CornFed Gregger]

They are not predicting who will be drafted. They are identifying a pool of players that have the potential to be drafted (5 stars is round 1, 4 star is rounds 1-3 potential, not rounds 1-8 potential. I.e., they are saying they are identifying 350 guys with the most potential to be in the first 96 picks. That reflects the high degree of uncertainty.). That's a significant difference.

You actually expect any scout(s) could take a bunch of 17 years old and identify with, let's say, a greater than 509% success rate, who would be drafted in 5 years?

I said the hs rankings are based on NFL potential. I only pointed out the nfl’s rates to show what reliable scouting would look like, not a 40% drop from tier one to two. 5 stars going round 1 or 4 star round 1-3, probably have even worse numbers.

All I was saying is its clearly flawed, u basically said the same with ur scouting 17 yo comment. So why are we giving a shit what dipshits like Farrell or Gorney rank hs kids? 4% is underperforming but unless it’s a 5 star, the rankings don’t mean shit & our struggles against Wisky/Cockeye/Minnesota support that.

 

[Carm]

I said the hs rankings are based on NFL potential. I only pointed out the nfl’s rates to show what reliable scouting would look like, not a 40% drop from tier one to two. 5 stars going round 1 or 4 star round 1-3, probably have even worse numbers.

All I was saying is its clearly flawed, u basically said the same with ur scouting 17 yo comment. So why are we giving a shit what dipshits like Farrell or Gorney rank hs kids? 4% is underperforming but unless it’s a 5 star, the rankings don’t mean shit & our struggles against Wisky/Cockeye/Minnesota support that.

There is a positive correlation of stars and success at the college level. And there is a big difference, on an average basis, between the highest ranked and lowest ranked four stars (not all four stars are alike). That being said, having a staff that is really good at evaluating talent (e.g., Chris Petersen or Rhule) gives much better results than the recruiting service rankings.

 

[Tsakoi]

67 4 stars signed. Impressive. Very Nice.

Now do the amount of 4 stars who end up transferring out of Nebraska.

 

[Poor_and_Stupid]

Ahh the 4 Star Curse, a subcategory of The Curse™

I knew it was bad but when you see the actual numbers it’s almost impressive how shit it is. It’s so bad that even if another team purposely tried to achieve a worse number I don’t think they could do it.