Nebraska vs. Northwestern odds, prediction, betting trends for Week 0 matchup in Dublin
Nebraska finished 3-9 last season, and the pressure is on fifth-year coach Scott Frost after four straight losing seasons.
Nebraska vs. Northwestern odds, prediction, betting trends
by Bill Bender, Sporting News
Nebraska and Northwestern will kick off the Big Ten season at Avila Stadium in Dublin, Ireland, on Saturday in a matchup between two teams who struggled in 2021.
Game time is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET. The matchup will be televised on Fox.
Nebraska finished 3-9 last season, and the pressure is on fifth-year coach Scott Frost after four straight losing seasons. The Huskers hired Pitt offensive coordinator Mark Whipple this offseason, and Texas transfer quarterback Casey Thompson will lead the offense. Nebraska did rank 36th in the FBS in scoring defense last season, and Garrett Nelson is a difference-maker on the edge.
Northwestern also finished 3-9 in 2021 under coach Pat Fitzgerald. It's an even year, which gives the Wildcats hope knowing they won the Big Ten West in 2018 and 2020. Ryan Hilinski is back at quarterback for the Wildcats, and he is protected by Sporting News Preseason All-American tackle Peter Skoronski. The defense picked up several additions via the transfer portal.
This should be a fun opener for the Big Ten season. Here's everything to know about betting on the Week 0 opener between the Huskers and Wildcats
ODDS
Caesars
- Spread: Nebraska (-13)
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Nebraska -556, Northwestern +400
Sports Interaction
- Spread: Nebraska (-13.5)
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Nebraska -480, Northwestern +386
Nebraska routed Northwestern 56-7 last year; a result that no doubt influences this line. This line could tick up a point closer to kickoff, and that would give some value to the Wildcats with a two-TD spread on a neutral setting.
Three Trends to Know
- The Huskers are 13-11 straight up but just 9-15 against the spread as a favorite under Frost the last four seasons. This is their first game on a neutral field with Frost.
- The Wildcats are 9-19 S/U as an underdog since 2018, but they are 14-12-2 ATS in those games
- Nebraska lost nine games by nine or less points last season. The Wildcats had seven losses of 17 points or more.
Three Things to Watch
- "Air Huskers?" Whipple was hired from Pitt, where he worked with Heisman Trophy finalist Kenny Pickett last season. The Panthers still had a 53:47 pass: run ratio last season, but the Huskers might come out firing with Thompson and a group of receivers that could be led by LSU transfer receiver Trey Palmer, who has been impressive in fall camp. New receivers coach Mickey Joseph was part of LSU's staff during the national championship run in 2019. This would be a fascinating development if Nebraska becomes a pass-heavy offense.
- Did the Wildcats fix their run defense? The Wildcats were dreadful against the run in 2021. Northwestern allowed a Big Ten-worst 213.9 yards per game on the ground last year, which was so out of character for a Fitzgerald-led unit. The Huskers piled up 427 rushing yards in last year's blowout victory. Rahmir Johnson is the top returning rusher for the Huskers, but he is part of a committee backfield. The Wildcats addressed their defensive line via the portal, and Henrik Barndt (Indianus State), Ryan Johnson (Stanford) and Taishan Holmes (UMass) are in the mix for playing time up front. Senior defensive end Adetomiwa Adebawore led the Wildcats with 4.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss.
- What will the Wildcats do on offense? Hilinski has battled with transfer quarterback Brendan Sullivan throughout the spring. Northwestern must establish a better passing attack. The Wildcats' quarterbacks combined for 13 TDs and 14 interceptions last season. The rushing attack is decent with Cam Porter, who missed last season after leading the team with 333 yards in the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season. Evan Hull rushed for 1,009 yards and seven TDs in his place last season.
Stat That Matters
It's easy to see why the line keeps moving in the Huskers' direction. The Wildcats have ranked 93rd or lower in scoring offense over the last four seasons. Northwestern has averaged 20.8 points in that stretch. That works when the defense can scratch out close victories. The offense needs to show marked improvement under third-year coordinator Mike Bajacian.
Prediction
There is no doubt last year's blowout was eye-opening, but that was in Lincoln and both teams are overseas. Nebraska has a mostly-new offensive staff, and Thompson will need to settle in against what should be an improved defense. The Wildcats need to be something more than the 1-2 punch of Porter and Hull. Turnover margin matters, and the Huskers (-5) and Wildcats (-6) were bad in that department last season, too. This series has been close since the Huskers joined the Big Ten, with Nebraska holding a 6-5 advantage since 2014. Most of those games have been competitive, and this one will be closer than expected for the most part.
Final Score: Nebraska 31, Northwestern 21
