I think Illinois will be fine, but I think they are getting a little bit overrated this offseason. They were just the anti-Nebraska last year and went 5-1 in 1 score games. I doubt that happens again, but I have said the same thing about Nebraska having a bad 1 score game record for about a decade now and here we are.
I will continue to argue Nebraska has been a terrible 1-score losing team because of special teams. Illinois has a terrific punter, return game, kicker, and special teams operation.
For instance, their kicker was 17 out of 20. And their punt returner, Hank Beatty, finished the season 4th Nationally in Punt Return yardage at 14 yards per return. Their kickoff team finished 5th nationally for fewest return yards allowed. Their punter, who didn't have a big leg, did place 10 punts inside the 20 yard line and only 3 of his punts ended up as a touchback. All those dudes are returning.
They were basically playing Cockeye caliber special teams but with a much more competent and explosive offense.
Compare that to Nebraska:
- Huskers miss more than 50% of their kicks.
- Huskers have multiple extra points blocked.
- Huskers only averaged 4.3 yards per punt return.
- Huskers allowed almost 8 yards more per kickoff return than Illinois.
Where Illinois has some things to prove is at receiver:
I honestly believe Pat Bryant is going to eventually become a star for the Broncos. And Zakhari Franklin is with the Raiders. Both those dudes were better than Nebraska's top 2 wideouts last season.
RB Josh McCray pissed Coach Fat Ass Bielema off in late April when he shocked everyone by announcing a transfer to Georgia. McCray is a future NFL running back and was highly productive for the Illini last season with 11 TDs. However, Illinois has plenty of good running backs and I think they will still be successful there.
The losses of Bryant, Franklin, and McCray are the primary reason why Illinois is lower in the FPI rankings.