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Jim Numbers' Numbers

Jim14510

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I was going to include this with EPP but I was late and it was a bit long anyway.

The Ohio State game in 2018 was maybe the most promising loss I can remember. We were 2-6 going into that game and it felt like everything was starting to click. Probably the main reason I was so optimistic going into the 2019 season. The 2019 game was very different. We weren’t nearly as close as we thought we were to moving in the right direction.

You see/hear a lot of posts, tweets, comments about wanting us to have a game like 2018 and not 2019. After looking over the first few drives of the 2019 game I was reminded that it’s not even worth looking at the numbers. We were absolutely never in that game. It was absolute domination by Ohio State. There were seven drives in the first half. They went 6 plays interception, 3 and out, 8 plays interception (the best drive of 49 yards), 2 plays interception, 3 and out, 3 and out, 3 and out. All 6 of Ohio State’s drives ended in a score. 5 TD’s and a FG.

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Well enough about 2019.

So I went back to the 2018 game to see if I could figure out why that game went so much better on offense.

The defense forced a few turnovers and held Ohio State on a 4th and 2 from the 23. Even more amazing was that Ohio State had to punt for the first time in many many drives. All told Ohio State had 15 drives. One running out the clock to end the half and another victory formation at the end of the game. The other 13 drives resulted in five touchdowns, 4 turnovers (including the turnover on downs) and three punts. If Nebraska’s defense can hold them to less than 50% scoring drives tomorrow I’ll be ecstatic. May even let the wife have the sex with me.

On to the offense of 2018. The numbers:
Drives – 14
Scoring drives – 5 (4 TD’s, 1 FG)
Total Plays - 95
Run Plays – 46
Pass Plays – 35
Penalties – 6
Punts – 8
1st down plays – 45
2nd down – 29
3rd down – 13
4th down – 8 (+1 FG)

In 2019 there were only 9 pass plays in the first half and 3 of them were picked off. A couple of the run plays were probably scrambles by Martinez and not designed runs but I can’t find the actual video to check. In most cases the run set up the pass. There were two big pass plays. Both times catching Ohio State by surprise on 1st and 10. One of the TD drives was 8 straight run plays.

Perfectly balanced on 1st and 10, 16 pass plays and 16 run plays. Really nothing too exciting with the rest. 1st and less than 5 we ran it all 5 times 3rd and 5 or more and we passed it every time. 2nd down Scott was about twice as likely to run the ball. Even on 2nd and long.

It will be interesting as I collect info for my database if something pops out. I’m sure every program has people working on tendencies of every coach so they try to change things up to move away from those tendencies. At the end of the day I don’t see anything in the numbers that surprises me. If we can’t run the ball we’re as fucked as 10/23 POTD.

I’m going to try and add to it with this year’s games but still pretty basic. Run right, run left, etc. If there’s anything you’d be particularly interested in let me know.
 

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