Interesting story about how On3 changed their OL recruiting evaluations
This paragraph struck me:
Though true freshmen offensive linemen rarely start at the Power 5 level, many college offensive line coaches and media evaluators are reticent to project and tend to be attracted to heavier, more physically-developed prospects even if that means sacrificing movement skills and long-term upside. We saw this in the 2019 cycle, with some very big, unathletic linemen ranked high by the industry early on due to overpowering smaller defensive linemen in camp settings, while showing very little projectable and translatable skills on Friday nights.
Have we turned the corner in evaluating high school offensive linemen?
Charles Power•about 20 hoursArticle written by:
CharlesPower
Last week’s NFL Draft saw a historic percentage of former five-star and blue-chip prospects taken early. The group of former five-stars taken in the first round included the first four offensive linemen off the board. This development marks a divergence from recent draft history.
Recruiting rankings have historically been very up-and-down when it comes to offensive linemen and the NFL Draft. For every Laremy Tunsil, there are two or three former five-stars who were Day 3 picks or even worse, completely undrafted.
22 offensive linemen were rated as five-stars from 2014 to 2018 according to the On3 Industry Ranking, which factors in the rankings of all primary recruiting media services. Just four of those prospects (Alex Leatherwood, Isaiah Wilson, Jedrick Wills and Jonah Williams) were first-rounders.
Conversely, nine offensive linemen were rated as On3 Industry five-stars from the 2019 and 2020 cycles. Six of those nine have gone in the first round. That figure does not include Peter Skoronski, a five-star outlier who was ranked as an On3 Industry four-star in the 2020 cycle.
If the past two years are any indication, we may have turned the corner in projecting high school offensive line prospects to the NFL Draft.
Recognizing and adjusting to position-specific dynamics
Working to improve offensive line rankings has been an area of personal emphasis over the past several years. I started as a national analyst at 247Sports in 2018 and worked with our Rankings Council, which was chaired by current Vanderbilt football General Manager Barton Simmons to update the approach to evaluating the position.First, there are some position-specific dynamics at play worth considering. Offensive line is a developmental position, both physically and technically. Rarely do future future first-round picks at the position have ready-made size, particularly as high school underclassmen. They tend to be big-framed athletes who gradually and naturally add strength and mass late in their high school career and early in college.
This developmental arc does not naturally dovetail with early evaluations as high school prospects. Many offensive line prospects who rack up early offers as high school underclassmen are simply bigger than their peers. This is a stage where sheer mass matters the least and when developing athleticism and movement skills matters the most. Study of the position also shows us that filling out as a high school underclassman often limits athletic upside.
Though true freshmen offensive linemen rarely start at the Power 5 level, many college offensive line coaches and media evaluators are reticent to project and tend to be attracted to heavier, more physically-developed prospects even if that means sacrificing movement skills and long-term upside. We saw this in the 2019 cycle, with some very big, unathletic linemen ranked high by the industry early on due to overpowering smaller defensive linemen in camp settings, while showing very little projectable and translatable skills on Friday nights.
The nature of the position also often leads to high-upside types emerging a bit later in the process. This can cause the higher ceiling prospects to be initially overlooked.
After recognizing these dynamics we took an approach that is equal parts art and science in an effort to improve the hit rate.
Using data to shift the prototype
For starters, we’ve done a better job of identifying big, long athletes early in the cycle.Paris Johnson Jr., who was taken by the Arizona Cardinals with the No. 6 pick on Thursday is a great example. He was a 6-foot-3, 205-pound freshman and hit a huge growth spurt, checking in at around 6-foot-6.5, 290 pounds as a junior. Johnson had a big frame with elite length and high-end movement skills. Johnson’s 35+ inch arms were among the longest of any prospect that cycle. He showed outstanding change of direction (4.53 second short shuttle) and explosive athleticism (32.5-inch vertical) in the combine setting. Johnson was not a prospect who would overpower defensive linemen in the camp setting. He was a projection due to his high-end physical attributes and encouraging physicality and skill as a run blocker. We felt good about tabbing Johnson as five-star and the top offensive tackle in the 2020 cycle and he made good on that ranking while at Ohio State
Darnell Wright, a five-star in the 2019 cycle who went No. 10 to the Chicago Bears, was another upside play. Wright was a big, coordinated mover at around 6-foot-5.5 320 pounds. Coming from a flexbone offense in West Virginia, there was level of projection required as he faced subpar competition and was rarely asked to pass block. Wright moved very well at that size in camp and all-star settings, making us feel good about his ability to transition to Power 5 football. We also liked the athleticism he showed as a defensive lineman (a common thread among first-round offensive linemen) and the fact he was a state champion in the shot put. It took a few years for Wright to settle in, but we saw him take off as a senior right tackle at Tennessee before becoming a top ten pick.
While he didn’t have the verified athletic data of Paris Johnson Jr., we saw similar physical upside in five-star tackle Broderick Jones in the 2020 cycle. Jones had similar physical gifts to Johnson with elite length and rare movement skills. His film was not as strong, but he showed some eye-catching upside at the Under Armour All-America Game. It was very clear he was different physically than the other linemen in attendance. I left that week thinking the gap between the two was not very large. Jones began to tap into his upside as a true junior at Georgia, playing his best football down the stretch of the national title run before becoming the Pittsburgh Steelers’ pick at No. 14.
We also used athletic testing data to uncover future top 100 pick Ricky Stromberg as a blue-chip prospect in the 2019 cycle. Stromberg was committed to his hometown Tulsa when co-worker Chance Linton noticed his combine numbers and passed him along. Stromberg had posed a sensational 4.46 second short shuttle time at over 6-foot-3, 320 pounds. He had very little Power 5 interest despite testing as one of the most athletic linemen in the nation. We really liked his senior film and made Stromberg a four-star. Arkansas offered late and he flipped to the Razorbacks, where he was a 4-year starter at center before becoming a third round pick by the Washington Commanders.
Identifying outliers with film-first evaluations
While the industry as a whole has done better in identifying high upside linemen who hit the national camp circuit, the biggest outlier hits have been first identified off of film.My first rankings pitch upon joining 247Sports in the 2019 cycle was to move offensive tackle Charles Cross from a mid three-star into the top 100. We ended up moving Cross up from No. 695 overall all the way to No. 79. It was not high enough. Cross, who was committed to Florida State at the time had dominant early senior film. The movement skills, reactive quickness, play strength and tenacity as a drive blocker were eye-popping. He faced then four-star prospect Jaren Handy early on and kicked the blue-chipper’s ass up and down the field. We closely tracked Cross the rest of the season and invited him to the All-American Bowl, where he aced every test – measuring in with projectable length and looking like the best offensive linemen all week. Cross, who had since flipped to Mississippi State, ended up as a five-star and top ten prospect in the final rankings. He went on to be drafted ninth overall by the Seattle Seahawks in 2022 and started all 18 games as a rookie.
Peter Skoronski was an even bigger five-star outlier for us in the 2020 cycle, three years before he was picked by the Tennessee Titans at No. 11. Like Cross the year prior, the bulk of Skoronski’s rankings ascent was fueled by fantastic film. We moved him from a high three star to No. 170 following a strong junior season. Skoronski paired high level technical and movement skills with a nasty on-field demeanor. You could see his natural flexibility and coordination with the ability to sink his hips in getting underneath opposing defensive linemen. Skoronski was a vicious drive blocker and advanced in pass protection. Simply put, there were no holes in his game on film. Additional positive indicators like an elite shot put mark and NFL bloodlines also helped in the evaluation. Like Cross, seeing Skoronski in person at the All-American was the final checkmark before minting him as a five-star. Though no other outlet had Skoronski higher than No. 150 overall, we felt great about his chances of being an early pick. He went on to be a three-year starter at left tackle for Northwestern before declaring for the Draft.
New York Jets’ second-rounder Joe Tippmann was our second-biggest hit along the offensive line in the 2023 NFL Draft, as he was not ranked as a four-star by any other outlet. Tippmann was a huge senior riser for us in 2019 solely off of his sensational senior film. We vaulted the then Wisconsin commit up around 200 spots late that fall. Tippmann showed some rare movement skills for a taller offensive lineman. He was technical and nasty, finishing blocks at a high rate. We didn’t have a ton of verifiable information or in-person evaluations – it was almost all film. He likely would’ve been even higher had there been an opportunity to see him at an all-star game like we did for Cross and Skoronski.
Moving forward
While there’s been considerable progress in projecting offensive linemen over the past few recruiting cycles, we can’t take a victory lap and become complacent. As is the case with all positions, we’ll continue to closely monitor the physical and athletic backgrounds of offensive line draft picks to pick up on any new developmental trends.While I expect the 2021 recruiting rankings to prove highly volatile across the industry due to the cycle being heavily affected by COVID restrictions, there are very encouraging signs with the 2022 offensive line class and we feel great about the 2023 group, which will be true freshmen this fall.
Offensive line recruits are rarely big-name headliners, but it is a value position and one that sees a high number of NFL Draft picks. It’s only right that we treat it as a priority in the rankings process.
