Chatelain: Nebraska's haunting reality of the past three seasons in the Big Ten West
Surely no fan base has experienced more misery over the past six seasons. Don't let anyone tell you differently, Husker fans, writes Dirk Chatelain as he recaps the (many) harrowing
Nebraska's haunting reality of the past three seasons in the Big Ten West
by Dirk Chatelain, Omaha World-Herald
You are deep in the throes of football hell, Husker fans. Don't let anyone tell you different.
Surely no fan base has experienced more misery over the past six seasons. Of the 65 Power Five programs, only Vanderbilt, Rutgers and Kansas have more losses since 2017 than Nebraska's 45. Yet during those six seasons, Nebraska is the only one NOT to qualify for a bowl game.
The Huskers have endured separate losing streaks of 10 games, four, seven and (currently) five. They've lost 21 straight against ranked opponents. And on and on.......
But of all the jaw-dropping, gut-punching, soul-crushing facts illustrating recent Husker futility, I doubt anything captures it quite like Nebraska's record against arguably the worst division in major college football -- the Big Ten West.
In the last 20 games against divisional competition, Nebraska is 2-18.
The span dates back to October 2019 -- after a game-winning field goal over Northwestern. Since then, the Huskers have beaten Maryland, Penn State, Indiana and Rutgers twice. But they've only defeated two division opponents: Purdue 2020 and Northwestern 2021. Two-for-20.
That's bad, right? It gets worse.
A whopping 14 of those 20 games came down to one possession. Eight points or less.
And what is Nebraska's record in those one-possession games?
0-14.
Impossible, right? You would think! It gets worse.
In those 14 games, the first three quarters were almost a dead heat. Opponents collectively outscored Nebraska 272-257. Basically one point per game.
What happened in the final quarter? The 14 foes collectively outscored Nebraska 117-53. Six times Nebraska didn't score in the fourth quarter.
It gets worse. Because 12 times in those 14 games, Nebraska's offense took the field with fewer than 5 minutes to go, needing one successful drive to tie or take the lead. How many times did NU score?
Zero.
It gets worse. The Husker offense recorded a safety during one of those 12 possessions (at Minnesota 2021), so it actually scored more points for the opponent than it scored for itself.
0-for-12. Minus-2 points.
How did those possessions end? Five fourth-down failures, two interceptions, two punts, one fumble, one safety and one clock expiration.
It gets worse. Much worse.
In those same 14 games, Nebraska's defense had multiple chances to perform in the clutch, too. Seven times during the final 5 minutes, the opponent had possession tied or within one score.
How often did Nebraska's defense surrender the go-ahead points? Five times out of seven. That's four go-ahead touchdowns and a buzzer-beating field goal.
Nebraska's defense produced only two stops. Both happened in the 2019 Cockeye game, with the score tied at 24. But Nebraska's offense kept failing and the Blackshirts ultimately relented.
It's a nightmare formula: an offense that can't score under pressure combined with a defense that can't hold up in the clutch.
Full disclosure here, there's no perfect way to measure clutch performance. Is it the final 2 minutes? Final 5? Final 15? And how do you define a close game? As stated, the Huskers had a few good moments the past few years, too, especially against Big Ten East foes.
But it's hard to spin this miserable stretch against the Big Ten West. 2-18? 0-14 in one-possession games? Nebraska's clutch failures against rivals and neighbors is the heart of a very big problem.
It isn't just statistically improbable. It's emotionally devastating.
The 14 one-possession losses under examination:
2019: Purdue 31-27
2019: Cockeye 27-24
2020: Northwestern 21-13
2020: Cockeye 26-20
2020: Minnesota 24-17
2021: Illinois 30-22
2021: Minnesota 30-23
2021: Purdue 28-23
2021: Wisconsin 35-28
2021: Cockeye 28-21
2022: Northwestern 31-28
2022: Purdue 43-37
2022: Minnesota 20-13
2022: Wisconsin 15-14
The 12 offensive drives tied/trailing inside the final 5 minutes:
Purdue 2019 - turnover on downs
Cockeye 2019 - punt
Cockeye 2019 - punt
Northwestern 2020 - turnover on downs
Cockeye 2020 - fumble
Illinois 2021 - turnover on downs
Minnesota 2021 - safety
Wisconsin 2021 - turnover on downs
Cockeye 2021 - interception
Northwestern 2022 - interception
Minnesota 2022 - turnover on downs
Wisconsin 2022 - clock expired
The 7 defensive drives tied/leading in the final 5 minutes:
Purdue 2019 - touchdown
Cockeye 2019 - punt
Cockeye 2019 - fumble
Cockeye 2019 - field goal
Wisconsin 2021 - touchdown
Cockeye 2021 - touchdown
Wisconsin 2022 - touchdown
by Dirk Chatelain, Omaha World-Herald
You are deep in the throes of football hell, Husker fans. Don't let anyone tell you different.
Surely no fan base has experienced more misery over the past six seasons. Of the 65 Power Five programs, only Vanderbilt, Rutgers and Kansas have more losses since 2017 than Nebraska's 45. Yet during those six seasons, Nebraska is the only one NOT to qualify for a bowl game.
The Huskers have endured separate losing streaks of 10 games, four, seven and (currently) five. They've lost 21 straight against ranked opponents. And on and on.......
But of all the jaw-dropping, gut-punching, soul-crushing facts illustrating recent Husker futility, I doubt anything captures it quite like Nebraska's record against arguably the worst division in major college football -- the Big Ten West.
In the last 20 games against divisional competition, Nebraska is 2-18.
The span dates back to October 2019 -- after a game-winning field goal over Northwestern. Since then, the Huskers have beaten Maryland, Penn State, Indiana and Rutgers twice. But they've only defeated two division opponents: Purdue 2020 and Northwestern 2021. Two-for-20.
That's bad, right? It gets worse.
A whopping 14 of those 20 games came down to one possession. Eight points or less.
And what is Nebraska's record in those one-possession games?
0-14.
Impossible, right? You would think! It gets worse.
In those 14 games, the first three quarters were almost a dead heat. Opponents collectively outscored Nebraska 272-257. Basically one point per game.
What happened in the final quarter? The 14 foes collectively outscored Nebraska 117-53. Six times Nebraska didn't score in the fourth quarter.
It gets worse. Because 12 times in those 14 games, Nebraska's offense took the field with fewer than 5 minutes to go, needing one successful drive to tie or take the lead. How many times did NU score?
Zero.
It gets worse. The Husker offense recorded a safety during one of those 12 possessions (at Minnesota 2021), so it actually scored more points for the opponent than it scored for itself.
0-for-12. Minus-2 points.
How did those possessions end? Five fourth-down failures, two interceptions, two punts, one fumble, one safety and one clock expiration.
It gets worse. Much worse.
In those same 14 games, Nebraska's defense had multiple chances to perform in the clutch, too. Seven times during the final 5 minutes, the opponent had possession tied or within one score.
How often did Nebraska's defense surrender the go-ahead points? Five times out of seven. That's four go-ahead touchdowns and a buzzer-beating field goal.
Nebraska's defense produced only two stops. Both happened in the 2019 Cockeye game, with the score tied at 24. But Nebraska's offense kept failing and the Blackshirts ultimately relented.
It's a nightmare formula: an offense that can't score under pressure combined with a defense that can't hold up in the clutch.
Full disclosure here, there's no perfect way to measure clutch performance. Is it the final 2 minutes? Final 5? Final 15? And how do you define a close game? As stated, the Huskers had a few good moments the past few years, too, especially against Big Ten East foes.
But it's hard to spin this miserable stretch against the Big Ten West. 2-18? 0-14 in one-possession games? Nebraska's clutch failures against rivals and neighbors is the heart of a very big problem.
It isn't just statistically improbable. It's emotionally devastating.
The 14 one-possession losses under examination:
2019: Purdue 31-27
2019: Cockeye 27-24
2020: Northwestern 21-13
2020: Cockeye 26-20
2020: Minnesota 24-17
2021: Illinois 30-22
2021: Minnesota 30-23
2021: Purdue 28-23
2021: Wisconsin 35-28
2021: Cockeye 28-21
2022: Northwestern 31-28
2022: Purdue 43-37
2022: Minnesota 20-13
2022: Wisconsin 15-14
The 12 offensive drives tied/trailing inside the final 5 minutes:
Purdue 2019 - turnover on downs
Cockeye 2019 - punt
Cockeye 2019 - punt
Northwestern 2020 - turnover on downs
Cockeye 2020 - fumble
Illinois 2021 - turnover on downs
Minnesota 2021 - safety
Wisconsin 2021 - turnover on downs
Cockeye 2021 - interception
Northwestern 2022 - interception
Minnesota 2022 - turnover on downs
Wisconsin 2022 - clock expired
The 7 defensive drives tied/leading in the final 5 minutes:
Purdue 2019 - touchdown
Cockeye 2019 - punt
Cockeye 2019 - fumble
Cockeye 2019 - field goal
Wisconsin 2021 - touchdown
Cockeye 2021 - touchdown
Wisconsin 2022 - touchdown
