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D1Baseball Weekly Chat (5/13)

Alum-Ni

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Stats Guy
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Link: https://d1baseball.com/chats/d1baseball-weekly-chat-may-13-2

Posting any questions relevant to Nebraska, the Big Ten or of general national interest:

Chandler: How about them Huskers and their resiliency to win games 2 and 3 this weekend after that ridiculous 9th inning collapse in game 1? The B1G title race is shaping up to be a fun one going into this last weekend of conference play with 4 teams still in the running.

Aaron Fitt: Yeah, super-impressed with Nebraska's performance this weekend. The Hoosiers have been playing great ball lately, and I thought they had a real chance to go in there and win that series, but the Huskers just stayed the course, got some great pitching from Mason McConnaughey to stabilize the series on Saturday, and then got more strong pitching on Sunday. That response showed me a lot after the way Friday played out. Feel great about where Nebraska is heading into the stretch.

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B1G Chaos: So who wins the most thrilling regular season conference race of the year? Illinois controls its destiny but that is a tall task to sweep Purdue on the road. Nebraska holds the tiebreaker over Illinois but will likely need a sweep of its own to be in contention. Then there's Purdue who can make their own chaos with a series win/sweep. So as of today if you had to pick, who would it be?

Aaron Fitt: Yeah, its definitely a compelling race. I think I lean Nebraska -- I think Purdue takes 2 of 3 at home vs. Illinois, and the Huskers take care of business at Michigan State. But who knows? Fun race for sure.

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Poll Mechanics: Maryland's RPI is in range, but are the conference standings too big a hill to climb to get into at-large range? In order to even finish in a tie for 5th place, they would need an Illinois sweep of Purdue *and* a sweep either way in Indiana/Michigan (along with their own sweep of Penn State). They can't pass Illinois, Nebraska or Cockeye and the winner of IU/UM stays ahead of them too. 5th/6th/7th place in the regular-season doesn't get it done, regardless of RPI, correct?


Aaron Fitt: Yeah I am concerned about this....Terps have the RPI, but gosh, if they finish outside the top 5 in the league (which seems very likely, given the circumstances you lay out), will an RPI in the 30s be enough to get them in? I'd be nervous about it. I think the Terps will need to make a deep run in the Big Ten tourney. They don't NECESSARILY have to win the auto bid, but they need to make a run.

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HoosierDaddy: Curious on your thoughts of the Big Ten and if it can get 3-4 teams in a regional? Nebraska seems like a lock. Indiana, Maryland, Illinois seem like the others. Reminds me a little bit of the Pac-12 last year where 4 teams got in with decent RPIs but a strong conference RPI.

Kendall Rogers: Feeling very good about Nebraska, obviously, and I think Illinois is in the field with a regular season championship. That leaves probably one more spot, and I'd give that to Indiana at this juncture. Maryland has the RPI, but no way the 7th place team in the Big Ten is making the field. It'll have a lot of work to do in the conference tournament.

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Jacob: What's the lowest RPI number/team that you think gets in this year? What about the highest that doesn't?

Kendall Rogers: Florida (#29) doesn't get in -- I don't think the Gaytors will either get to 13 wins OR finish above .500 overall.
Lowest RPI to get in: Utah (#71). The committee (with Mark Harlan, the Utah AD on the committee) could surprise, but I'd be shocked if the third place team in the Pac-12 was left out, even with a horrible RPI.
 
Additionally....some comments from Kendall Rogers


Rogers Rewind: Five takeaways, National Seed Report + Who Helped/Hurt Their Cases
Kendall Rogers, D1Baseball

Five Thoughts Entering Week 14

3. Big Ten regular season title basically down to Illinois/Nebraska

The Big Ten might not have the star power of the ACC, SEC or even the Sun Belt and Big 12, but the league regular season title race has been one of the better ones in our sport this season. Entering the final weekend of the regular season, the Big Ten has five teams in contention for the No. 1 spot. Purdue, Indiana and Michigan have a very difficult pathway to win the title -- all sitting two games back. But Nebraska has a shot at just a game back, while Illinois continues to lead the league with a 15-6 league record to go with a 30-17 overall mark. Illinois finishes the regular season with a series at Purdue, and probably needs to win the league to make the NCAA Tournament with an RPI of 58. It would be close. Nebraska, which is 30 in the RPI, wraps up league play at Michigan State. I have a sneaking suspicion this one comes down to the final day of the regular season.
 

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