College Basketball Experts Predict: Who Will Be the Biggest Surprise Team This Season?
by Brian Bennett, The Athletic
We are less than a week away from the start of the 2021-22 college basketball season, with full crowds and student sections returning to blessedly blast our eardrums. That means there are just a few days left to get in our preseason predictions that will likely make us look foolish in a couple of months.
Each weekday leading up to Tuesday’s first tipoffs, we’ll present a pressing question answered by our panel of experts here at The Athletic. We began this series with looking at which mid- or low-major team will be the next NCAA Tournament Cinderella. Perhaps some of those squads could be considered for our next category, which is: Who will be the biggest surprise team in the country this season? It is, of course, not easy to spot a surprise in advance, or else that wouldn’t be much of a surprise. That’s reflected in the lack of anything resembling a consensus among our experts, who brought a lot of nominees to the table.
(Note: Our survey was conducted before the news of Oklahoma State’s postseason ban was announced on Wednesday.)
Biggest Surprise Team - Votes
Indiana - 2
Nebraska - 2
Oklahoma State - 2
Alabama - 1
Auburn - 1
Colorado State - 1
Cockeye State - 1
Memphis - 1
North Carolina - 1
Rutgers - 1
Virginia Tech - 1
Washington State - 1
Let’s hear some of the reasoning behind these choices:
It might sound weird to say a team picked 10th will surprise folks, but it feels like most everyone is waiting for the bottom to fall out on Memphis. I don’t think it will. In another coach’s hands, Emoni Bates could be a handful. My bet is he actually listens to Penny Hardaway, a guy who knows a thing or two about how to be a great point guard. I also like that the Tigers actually have guys returning — Landers Nolley, Lester Quinones — who know what they’re doing. I’m not saying the Tigers win a title, but they aren’t going to be the train wreck everyone expects. — Dana O’Neil
A lot of talent and experience are back for Virginia Tech. Storm Murphy doesn’t need to score 17 a game like he did at Wofford; he just needs to be a solid ACC guard. Feels like a group that could push for the top three in the league. — Brian Hamilton
Indiana finished 12-15 last season but was very competitive before collapsing toward the finish line. The Hoosiers were nightmarish on offense, a result both of Archie Miller’s handcuffing system and a poor mix of ill-fitting parts. Mike Woodson will bring a more modern, pace-and-space approach, has added much-needed perimeter shooting and could get a monster season out of Trayce Jackson-Davis. Plus, the team might actually have some fun for the first time in a few years. — Brian Bennett
Nebraska. Sure, a last-place finish in the Big Ten means there's nowhere else to go but 13th or better, but coach Fred Hoiberg turned around Cockeye State with core recruits like Georges Niang and Monte Morris and supplemented with transfers, not the other way around. It's possible Bryce McGowens transforms the Cornhuskers the way Niang did the Cyclones, even if it's for only one season. An NCAA Tournament appearance isn't out of the question. --Scott Dochterman
Fred Hoiberg wins with skill and shooting, and he's starting to get some real talent in Lincoln. The perimeter trio of Arizona State transfer Alonzo Verge Jr. and the McGowens brothers could be fun. Nebraska has been one of the worst teams in the Big Ten the last two years, but the Huskers will complete for a bubble spot this year. -- CJ Moore
There was a temptation here to go with San Francisco, and I do think USF (with both of its senior guards back, a potential return to efficient form for Khalil Shabazz, and a conspicuously high preseason KenPom.com ranking) has a chance to be a real spoiler in the WCC. But let’s go with the Dons’ former coach’s new gig, shall we? Kyle Smith left USF in a vastly better place than he found it three years ago, and in the matter of two seasons he has worked miracles at Washington State. Know Wazzu’s highest adjusted efficiency ranking in the five-year Ernie Kent era? 186th. (It’s a three-year tie, by the way. Weird.) Last season, in Year 2, Smith had Wazzu in the top 80, with a top-25 defense and a consistent run of quality wins in the Pac-12. After so many years of losing, it took a minute to get your head around. Really? Wazzu might be good now? But yeah: Wazzu might be good now. — Eamonn Brennan
Last year’s 2-22 finish was hard to comprehend for an Cockeye State program that was used to playing in the NCAA Tournament and finishing in the top half of the Big 12 standings. New coach T.J. Otzelberger has transfers from Penn State, Minnesota, Kansas, Washington State and Mississippi on his roster, plus four-star freshman point guard Tyrese Hunter. The Cyclones may not be great, but they have to be better. — Austin Meek
Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have become recent contenders and should continue that trend this season. There’s even more potential if Cliff Omoruyi drastically improves. — Charlotte Carroll
Maybe I’m biased, because I cover them, but I’m going with North Carolina. The Tar Heels have a new coach, five new players — three of them additions via the transfer portal — and a whole new style of play. That, admittedly, has caused some apprehension regarding Hubert Davis’ first team, but if players pick up Davis’ spacing-oriented system? There’s no reason UNC can’t challenge for an ACC championship right off the bat. — Brendan Marks
(Our complete panel of experts: Brian Bennett, Eamonn Brennan, Charlotte Carroll, Seth Davis, Scott Dochterman, Doug Haller, Brian Hamilton, C.J. Holmes, Brendan Marks, Austin Meek, CJ Moore, Dana O’Neil, Brendan Quinn, Kyle Tucker and Justin Williams.)
