Big Ten's Wild West: Breaking down each team's chances to win the division
Breaking down each team's chances to win the Big Ten's wild West Division.
theathletic.com
Which Big Ten West team has the best chance of winning its division? Risers, fallers after Week 5
by Scott Dochterman, The Athletic
In the Big Ten’s Central time zone, where gluten-free football is to offensive coordinators what speed limits are to interstate drivers, every bypass contains a little gridlock. And this year, the meat-and-potatoes West Division has a major traffic jam.
Six Big Ten West teams are 1-1 in league play, and the seventh sits 0-2, and that team was the divisional favorite entering the season. There are surprising outcomes like Illinois’ 34-10 win at Wisconsin and shocking statistics like the Badgers’ 2 rushing yards in that loss. There are unsurprising struggles, such as Cockeye’s offensive issues, and unsurprising performances, like Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim scoring eight rushing touchdowns in four games. There also has been a ton of fun with Purdue receiver Charlie Jones turning into “Chuck Sizzle” and the free beer flowing by accident in Dublin during the Northwestern-Nebraska season opener. There also are two interim coaches with Scott Frost out at Nebraska and Wisconsin’s Paul Chryst fired Sunday.
Mostly, the only consistent element in Big Ten’s “other” division is a general inconsistency. Every team has a shot at Indianapolis. Every team has a flaw. None of them look like anything more than party favors when facing the East Division champion in Indianapolis. But their disdain for one another within the West makes it appealing all the same.
According to one industry source, it's likely the Big Ten will go to a one-division format next year with protected foes the only remaining sticking point. This year, the West will help the East, which has the potential to send two teams to the College Football Playoff. In a single-division format with a championship rematch, that probably doesn't happen.
Instead of joining the fray bashing the Big Ten West, it's time to embrace it as college football's most unpredictable and chaotic division -- while it lasts.
Passing Fancy: Purdue
There’s no team in the West that is more interesting than Purdue. Under Jeff Brohm, the Boilermakers (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten) have become the divisional outlier with a pass-first scheme and an attacking mentality on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell leads the Big Ten in passing yards per game (299.8) and connects on 64.3 percent of his passes. The defense is disruptive enough to cause problems for opposing offenses, and Purdue has outscored its foes 47-3 in the first quarter.
Despite losing its two top receivers in the offseason, Purdue recovered by turning to Cockeye to add Jones, who ranks second nationally in catches (47) and touchdown receptions (eight) and fourth in yards per game (117.4). Jones, who entered the transfer portal in late May, was the Big Ten’s return specialist of the year in 2021 and now is the favorite to win the league’s top receiver award.
Despite the superlatives, Purdue has lost twice for a reason. In both games, the Boilermakers gave up the lead in the final minute. In a 35-31 loss to Penn State, Purdue allowed six completions on seven attempts in 89 seconds. In a 32-29 defeat at Syracuse, the Boilermakers committed personal foul, pass interference and holding penalties on the Orange’s final drive to lose the game.
Why it can win the West: Purdue is a difficult matchup for every team left on the schedule. It can compete in a shootout and play slam-ball when necessary, as it proved in a win at previously unbeaten Minnesota. Plus, none of its upcoming opponents are ranked.
Why it won't: Purdue leads the Big Ten in penalty yards per game (70.6), and its average yards per penalty is 10.4, which means it is prone to major infractions. Discipline will be critical in order for the Boilermakers to make their first trip to Indianapolis.
Remaining Schedule: at Maryland, Nebraska, at Wisconsin, Cockeye, at Illinois, Northwestern, at Indiana
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On the rise: Illinois
Bret Bielema knows the formula that works in the West Division after leading Wisconsin to Big Ten titles from 2010-12. Through five games, Bielema’s squad leads the nation in scoring defense (8.4), ranks third in total defense (229.2) and boasts the nation’s top rusher in Chase Brown (733 yards).
In a blink and a tweak, Bielema has Illinois (4-1, 1-1) as the most surprising — and perhaps most viable — Big Ten West Division contender in only his second season. The Illini held Wisconsin to 2 rushing yards in a thorough 34-10 pounding, Illinois’ first win in Madison since 2002.
“It’s a big deal,” Bielema said. “I told our locker room, ‘To do something that’s never been done in 20 years, that’s not common. You don’t get those opportunities.’ To have that moment was very special. I just kept going and putting things in front of our team about Game 5, rematch No. 2.”
Rematch No. 3 comes Saturday night against Cockeye, to which Illinois has lost eight straight meetings.
Why it can win the West: Illinois is confident and self-aware. It can run the ball and stop the run, two winning traits in the West Division. The Illini also feature a quarterback with moxie and toughness in Tommy DeVito.
Why it won't: Illinois hasn't enjoyed a winning season since 2011, so can the players remain mature with positive attention? Consecutive home games against Cockeye and Minnesota could further Illinois' momentum or quickly deflate it.
Remaining Schedule: Cockeye, Minnesota, at Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue, at Michigan, at Northwestern
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Dairyland disappointment: Wisconsin
From the start of divisional play in 2011, only Ohio State has more overall wins and Big Ten victories than Wisconsin (3-2, 0-2). Since the East-West divide, the Badgers are the default choice as annual West Division favorites with four of the eight titles. They’ve earned that distinction.
But an early season home loss to Washington State (17-14) and a blowout defeat at Ohio State (52-21) turned frustration into aggravation. But neither loss has roiled the fan base like the 34-10 defeat to Illinois and Bielema on Saturday. The Badgers gained just 2 rushing yards and allowed five sacks. It’s one thing to lose decisively at Ohio State; quite another to fall to the Illini at home. Ultimately, it cost Chryst his job.
The Badgers’ forte long has been an elite defense and power running game. Yet the Badgers are mid-pack nationally in most defensive categories, and the rushing offense ranks 56th. Power back Braelon Allen averaged 124.2 yards entering the Illinois game but was held to eight carries for 2 yards.
Why it can win the West: Wisconsin still has a foundation on both sides of the ball that translates to success. None of the Badgers' upcoming opponents are ranked, and they have beaten Purdue 15 straight times.
Why it won't: The Badgers were overwhelmed in every phase against Ohio State and looked lifeless against Illinois. Interim coach and defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard has the respect of everyone associated with the program, but can he boost the offense?
Remaining Schedule: at Northwestern, at Michigan State, Purdue, Maryland, at Cockeye, at Nebraska, Minnesota
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Setting sail: Minnesota
With a pre-conference schedule that would make Hall of Fame coach Bill Snyder blush, Minnesota (4-1, 1-1) rowed past New Mexico State, Western Illinois and Colorado 149-17 before making a statement with a 34-7 victory at Michigan State. But the Gophers capsized at home against Purdue, 20-10, leaving two weeks’ worth of questions for coach P.J. Fleck to answer with an upcoming bye week.
“I believe in life you get what you deserve,” Fleck said. “We didn’t deserve to win. When we’re not playing complementary football, that’s what it looks like.”
Despite the homecoming downer, Minnesota still has the guts of a divisional competitor. Ibrahim missed the Purdue game with an undisclosed injury. Quarterback Tanner Morgan threw three interceptions, but one of them bounced off the chest of wide-open Michael Brown-Stephens in the end zone. A missed 28-yard field goal also spelled doom.
Why it can win the West: With a healthy Ibrahim, Minnesota has a potent rushing attack capable of slashing and smashing through any Big Ten opponent. The defense didn't allow the Boilermakers to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since the 2018 Music City Bowl.
Why it won't: Minnesota returns off the break with trips to Illinois and Penn State, both of which will be difficult. It also concludes the season against Cockeye and Wisconsin, and the Gophers have not beaten both of their archrivals in the same season since 1990.
Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, at Penn State, Rutgers, at Nebraska, Northwestern, Cockeye, at Wisconsin
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Perpetually status quo: Cockeye
Cockeye (3-2, 1-1) won the West Division in 2021 largely because of its opportunistic defense, high-level special teams play and an offense that took advantage of short fields to score points. But the Cockeyes limped offensively with statistical rankings in the 120s nationally in just about every major category. So, in the offseason, Cockeye responded in typical Cockeye fashion by not changing anything.
It took five games, but Cockeye no longer ranks last nationally in total offense, but it's by just one spot. It also sits 123rd in rushing offense, 119th in passing offense, and 122nd in scoring. The lack of consistency has put major pressure on a defense that ranks in the top seven nationally in total defense and scoring defense. Although the Cockeyes gave up a season-high three touchdowns to No. 4 Michigan, they also held the Wolverines to their season-low 27 points after averaging 50 points per game. The Cockeyes also gained a season-best 281 yards against Michigan.
"I thought we grew, and we did some things better," Cockeye head coach Kirk Ferentz said. "Time will tell. I may be totally crazy."
Why it can win the West: Cockeye rode elite defense and special teams to a title just one year ago. As long as the offense converts scoring situations into points, there's a chance Cockeye will compete in every game -- except maybe in a road trip to Ohio State. Nobody is better in the margins than Cockeye.
Why it won't: Every West team has an offense that can dictate tempo except Cockeye. The schedule includes road trips to Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue and Minnesota. It might take one of Ferentz's best coaching jobs to nudge the Cockeyes back to Indianapolis.
Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, at Ohio State, Northwestern, at Purdue, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Nebraska
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Addition by subtraction: Nebraska
After one drive in Week 0, Nebraska (2-3, 1-1) had sports writers touting their preseason AP Poll votes and fans celebrating the Huskers' return to prominence. By the fourth quarter of that season-opening loss to Northwestern in Dublin, every negative trait that had clouded Frost's tenure stuck out like a case of hives in yet another one-score defeat.
An uninspiring win against North Dakota coupled with a 45-42 loss to Georgia Southern, which included the most yards ever allowed (642) to an opponent at Memorial Stadium, led to Frost's dismissal. A 49-14 loss to ancient foe Oklahoma followed a week later. But in a program reset, the Huskers beat Indiana 35-21 on Saturday to secure their first win against an FBS opponent in nearly a calendar year.
"They finally got to the fourth quarter (Saturday) and separated themselves in the fourth quarter," Nebraska interim coach Mickey Joseph said. "They played four quarters of football. Finally."
Why it can win the West: Talent has never been Nebraska's issue in competing against its West Division brethren. It was the intangibles that held it back, such as fundamentals, attention to detail and physicality along the line of scrimmage. Of the Huskers' remaining opponents, only Michigan is ranked.
Why it won't: Nebraska has won two Big Ten games in two years. The home victory against Indiana was an enjoyable respite from the swirling negativity, but the Huskers need to play consistently in all phases every week, something they haven't done in the past decade.
Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers, at Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, at Michigan, Wisconsin, at Cockeye
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Even year possibility: Northwestern
Northwestern (1-4, 1-1) rallied from double digits twice to beat Nebraska in the opener but has lost four straight. The Wildcats dropped every nonconference game — all of which were at home — including to Miami (Ohio) and FCS opponent Southern Illinois. But against its best opponent to date, Northwestern held on to a respectable 17-7 loss at No. 11 Penn State.
There was a natural expectation for the Wildcats to bounce back to respectability after winning divisional titles in 2018 and 2020 with three-win campaigns in 2019 and 2021. But if the Wildcats even get to bowl eligibility this year, Pat Fitzgerald should win another Big Ten Coach of the Year award.
Why it can win the West: Well, the division doesn't have a runaway favorite, and Northwestern already owns one divisional victory. Plus, the even-year streak keeps those hopes alive.
Why it won't: Losing at home to Southern Illinois and Miami (Ohio) doesn't inspire much confidence that Northwestern can beat two or three mid-level Big Ten opponents, much less five or six.
Remaining Schedule: Wisconsin, at Maryland, at Cockeye, Ohio State, at Minnesota, at Purdue, Illinois
by Scott Dochterman, The Athletic
In the Big Ten’s Central time zone, where gluten-free football is to offensive coordinators what speed limits are to interstate drivers, every bypass contains a little gridlock. And this year, the meat-and-potatoes West Division has a major traffic jam.
Six Big Ten West teams are 1-1 in league play, and the seventh sits 0-2, and that team was the divisional favorite entering the season. There are surprising outcomes like Illinois’ 34-10 win at Wisconsin and shocking statistics like the Badgers’ 2 rushing yards in that loss. There are unsurprising struggles, such as Cockeye’s offensive issues, and unsurprising performances, like Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim scoring eight rushing touchdowns in four games. There also has been a ton of fun with Purdue receiver Charlie Jones turning into “Chuck Sizzle” and the free beer flowing by accident in Dublin during the Northwestern-Nebraska season opener. There also are two interim coaches with Scott Frost out at Nebraska and Wisconsin’s Paul Chryst fired Sunday.
Mostly, the only consistent element in Big Ten’s “other” division is a general inconsistency. Every team has a shot at Indianapolis. Every team has a flaw. None of them look like anything more than party favors when facing the East Division champion in Indianapolis. But their disdain for one another within the West makes it appealing all the same.
According to one industry source, it's likely the Big Ten will go to a one-division format next year with protected foes the only remaining sticking point. This year, the West will help the East, which has the potential to send two teams to the College Football Playoff. In a single-division format with a championship rematch, that probably doesn't happen.
Instead of joining the fray bashing the Big Ten West, it's time to embrace it as college football's most unpredictable and chaotic division -- while it lasts.
Passing Fancy: Purdue
There’s no team in the West that is more interesting than Purdue. Under Jeff Brohm, the Boilermakers (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten) have become the divisional outlier with a pass-first scheme and an attacking mentality on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell leads the Big Ten in passing yards per game (299.8) and connects on 64.3 percent of his passes. The defense is disruptive enough to cause problems for opposing offenses, and Purdue has outscored its foes 47-3 in the first quarter.
Despite losing its two top receivers in the offseason, Purdue recovered by turning to Cockeye to add Jones, who ranks second nationally in catches (47) and touchdown receptions (eight) and fourth in yards per game (117.4). Jones, who entered the transfer portal in late May, was the Big Ten’s return specialist of the year in 2021 and now is the favorite to win the league’s top receiver award.
Despite the superlatives, Purdue has lost twice for a reason. In both games, the Boilermakers gave up the lead in the final minute. In a 35-31 loss to Penn State, Purdue allowed six completions on seven attempts in 89 seconds. In a 32-29 defeat at Syracuse, the Boilermakers committed personal foul, pass interference and holding penalties on the Orange’s final drive to lose the game.
Why it can win the West: Purdue is a difficult matchup for every team left on the schedule. It can compete in a shootout and play slam-ball when necessary, as it proved in a win at previously unbeaten Minnesota. Plus, none of its upcoming opponents are ranked.
Why it won't: Purdue leads the Big Ten in penalty yards per game (70.6), and its average yards per penalty is 10.4, which means it is prone to major infractions. Discipline will be critical in order for the Boilermakers to make their first trip to Indianapolis.
Remaining Schedule: at Maryland, Nebraska, at Wisconsin, Cockeye, at Illinois, Northwestern, at Indiana
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On the rise: Illinois
Bret Bielema knows the formula that works in the West Division after leading Wisconsin to Big Ten titles from 2010-12. Through five games, Bielema’s squad leads the nation in scoring defense (8.4), ranks third in total defense (229.2) and boasts the nation’s top rusher in Chase Brown (733 yards).
In a blink and a tweak, Bielema has Illinois (4-1, 1-1) as the most surprising — and perhaps most viable — Big Ten West Division contender in only his second season. The Illini held Wisconsin to 2 rushing yards in a thorough 34-10 pounding, Illinois’ first win in Madison since 2002.
“It’s a big deal,” Bielema said. “I told our locker room, ‘To do something that’s never been done in 20 years, that’s not common. You don’t get those opportunities.’ To have that moment was very special. I just kept going and putting things in front of our team about Game 5, rematch No. 2.”
Rematch No. 3 comes Saturday night against Cockeye, to which Illinois has lost eight straight meetings.
Why it can win the West: Illinois is confident and self-aware. It can run the ball and stop the run, two winning traits in the West Division. The Illini also feature a quarterback with moxie and toughness in Tommy DeVito.
Why it won't: Illinois hasn't enjoyed a winning season since 2011, so can the players remain mature with positive attention? Consecutive home games against Cockeye and Minnesota could further Illinois' momentum or quickly deflate it.
Remaining Schedule: Cockeye, Minnesota, at Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue, at Michigan, at Northwestern
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Dairyland disappointment: Wisconsin
From the start of divisional play in 2011, only Ohio State has more overall wins and Big Ten victories than Wisconsin (3-2, 0-2). Since the East-West divide, the Badgers are the default choice as annual West Division favorites with four of the eight titles. They’ve earned that distinction.
But an early season home loss to Washington State (17-14) and a blowout defeat at Ohio State (52-21) turned frustration into aggravation. But neither loss has roiled the fan base like the 34-10 defeat to Illinois and Bielema on Saturday. The Badgers gained just 2 rushing yards and allowed five sacks. It’s one thing to lose decisively at Ohio State; quite another to fall to the Illini at home. Ultimately, it cost Chryst his job.
The Badgers’ forte long has been an elite defense and power running game. Yet the Badgers are mid-pack nationally in most defensive categories, and the rushing offense ranks 56th. Power back Braelon Allen averaged 124.2 yards entering the Illinois game but was held to eight carries for 2 yards.
Why it can win the West: Wisconsin still has a foundation on both sides of the ball that translates to success. None of the Badgers' upcoming opponents are ranked, and they have beaten Purdue 15 straight times.
Why it won't: The Badgers were overwhelmed in every phase against Ohio State and looked lifeless against Illinois. Interim coach and defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard has the respect of everyone associated with the program, but can he boost the offense?
Remaining Schedule: at Northwestern, at Michigan State, Purdue, Maryland, at Cockeye, at Nebraska, Minnesota
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Setting sail: Minnesota
With a pre-conference schedule that would make Hall of Fame coach Bill Snyder blush, Minnesota (4-1, 1-1) rowed past New Mexico State, Western Illinois and Colorado 149-17 before making a statement with a 34-7 victory at Michigan State. But the Gophers capsized at home against Purdue, 20-10, leaving two weeks’ worth of questions for coach P.J. Fleck to answer with an upcoming bye week.
“I believe in life you get what you deserve,” Fleck said. “We didn’t deserve to win. When we’re not playing complementary football, that’s what it looks like.”
Despite the homecoming downer, Minnesota still has the guts of a divisional competitor. Ibrahim missed the Purdue game with an undisclosed injury. Quarterback Tanner Morgan threw three interceptions, but one of them bounced off the chest of wide-open Michael Brown-Stephens in the end zone. A missed 28-yard field goal also spelled doom.
Why it can win the West: With a healthy Ibrahim, Minnesota has a potent rushing attack capable of slashing and smashing through any Big Ten opponent. The defense didn't allow the Boilermakers to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since the 2018 Music City Bowl.
Why it won't: Minnesota returns off the break with trips to Illinois and Penn State, both of which will be difficult. It also concludes the season against Cockeye and Wisconsin, and the Gophers have not beaten both of their archrivals in the same season since 1990.
Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, at Penn State, Rutgers, at Nebraska, Northwestern, Cockeye, at Wisconsin
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Perpetually status quo: Cockeye
Cockeye (3-2, 1-1) won the West Division in 2021 largely because of its opportunistic defense, high-level special teams play and an offense that took advantage of short fields to score points. But the Cockeyes limped offensively with statistical rankings in the 120s nationally in just about every major category. So, in the offseason, Cockeye responded in typical Cockeye fashion by not changing anything.
It took five games, but Cockeye no longer ranks last nationally in total offense, but it's by just one spot. It also sits 123rd in rushing offense, 119th in passing offense, and 122nd in scoring. The lack of consistency has put major pressure on a defense that ranks in the top seven nationally in total defense and scoring defense. Although the Cockeyes gave up a season-high three touchdowns to No. 4 Michigan, they also held the Wolverines to their season-low 27 points after averaging 50 points per game. The Cockeyes also gained a season-best 281 yards against Michigan.
"I thought we grew, and we did some things better," Cockeye head coach Kirk Ferentz said. "Time will tell. I may be totally crazy."
Why it can win the West: Cockeye rode elite defense and special teams to a title just one year ago. As long as the offense converts scoring situations into points, there's a chance Cockeye will compete in every game -- except maybe in a road trip to Ohio State. Nobody is better in the margins than Cockeye.
Why it won't: Every West team has an offense that can dictate tempo except Cockeye. The schedule includes road trips to Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue and Minnesota. It might take one of Ferentz's best coaching jobs to nudge the Cockeyes back to Indianapolis.
Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, at Ohio State, Northwestern, at Purdue, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Nebraska
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Addition by subtraction: Nebraska
After one drive in Week 0, Nebraska (2-3, 1-1) had sports writers touting their preseason AP Poll votes and fans celebrating the Huskers' return to prominence. By the fourth quarter of that season-opening loss to Northwestern in Dublin, every negative trait that had clouded Frost's tenure stuck out like a case of hives in yet another one-score defeat.
An uninspiring win against North Dakota coupled with a 45-42 loss to Georgia Southern, which included the most yards ever allowed (642) to an opponent at Memorial Stadium, led to Frost's dismissal. A 49-14 loss to ancient foe Oklahoma followed a week later. But in a program reset, the Huskers beat Indiana 35-21 on Saturday to secure their first win against an FBS opponent in nearly a calendar year.
"They finally got to the fourth quarter (Saturday) and separated themselves in the fourth quarter," Nebraska interim coach Mickey Joseph said. "They played four quarters of football. Finally."
Why it can win the West: Talent has never been Nebraska's issue in competing against its West Division brethren. It was the intangibles that held it back, such as fundamentals, attention to detail and physicality along the line of scrimmage. Of the Huskers' remaining opponents, only Michigan is ranked.
Why it won't: Nebraska has won two Big Ten games in two years. The home victory against Indiana was an enjoyable respite from the swirling negativity, but the Huskers need to play consistently in all phases every week, something they haven't done in the past decade.
Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers, at Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, at Michigan, Wisconsin, at Cockeye
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Even year possibility: Northwestern
Northwestern (1-4, 1-1) rallied from double digits twice to beat Nebraska in the opener but has lost four straight. The Wildcats dropped every nonconference game — all of which were at home — including to Miami (Ohio) and FCS opponent Southern Illinois. But against its best opponent to date, Northwestern held on to a respectable 17-7 loss at No. 11 Penn State.
There was a natural expectation for the Wildcats to bounce back to respectability after winning divisional titles in 2018 and 2020 with three-win campaigns in 2019 and 2021. But if the Wildcats even get to bowl eligibility this year, Pat Fitzgerald should win another Big Ten Coach of the Year award.
Why it can win the West: Well, the division doesn't have a runaway favorite, and Northwestern already owns one divisional victory. Plus, the even-year streak keeps those hopes alive.
Why it won't: Losing at home to Southern Illinois and Miami (Ohio) doesn't inspire much confidence that Northwestern can beat two or three mid-level Big Ten opponents, much less five or six.
Remaining Schedule: Wisconsin, at Maryland, at Cockeye, Ohio State, at Minnesota, at Purdue, Illinois
