An unbiased look at our ranking and progress

[Baron Winnebago]

I agree. Wonder what the algorithm thinks about continual mistakes by this staff like having only 10 defensive players on the field for a 2 Pt Conversion?

Probably receives equally weight as defending a two point conversion really well, but letting it in anyways.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

We also just played, according to the FPI, the most average team in the nation (Rutgers at 0.0) and won by 7, but if Rutgers who is the worst team in the big ten according to the metric is the bar for comparison, it's not surprising that we are compared favorably.

It's be interesting to see a model where the mean, average if you will, P5 was the benchmark.

 

[Blackshirts_Win_'ships]

Don't get me wrong, @kenyanfeline I love your optimism and positivity. I just wish it was more well-founded.

For an actual unbiased look (raw data, only major source of bias is unbalanced scheduling, but let's not kid ourselves that that helps our cause this season), here's what's been happening, by the numbers (2017-2020). Note: I have added my personally biased conclusions in spoilers.

Fewest Penalties Per Game:

2020 - 95th
2019 - 27th
2018 - 119th
2017 - 81st

Spoiler

Personally biased conclusion: Regressed greatly after showing Improvement - bad 2020 trend

Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game:

2020 - 98th
2019 - 22nd
2018 - 125th
2017 - 102nd

Spoiler

Personally biased conclusion: We've remained even in our ability to be dumb. Again, last season was a nice aberration. If 2021 swings back that way, a sign of potential righting of the ship.

Turnover Margin Per Game:

2020 - 122nd
2019 - 64th
2018 - 87th
2017 - 103rd

Spoiler

Personally biased conclusion: It was awful in 2017, but big big big regression this season. Sensing a trend...and it's not a good one.

Total Offense:

2020 - 63rd
2019 - 50th
2018 - 20th
2017 - 80th

Spoiler

Personally biased conclusion: Coach Harry Potter gots to go. Regressed with QB play, unsurprisingly.

Yards Per Play - Offense:

2020 - 71st
2019 - 59th
2018 - 22nd
2017 - 67th

Spoiler

Personally biased conclusion: Yo, Adrian...you had so much promise (and more playmakers at your disposal...)

Scoring Offense:

2020 - 101st
2019 - 64th
2018 - 54th
2017 - 80th

Spoiler

Personally biased conclusion: This is the money stat in my opinion. Compare and contrast to Total Offense. No. Bueno.

Yards Per Point - Offense:

2020 - 117th
2019 - 74th
2018 - 97th
2017 - 81st

Spoiler

Personally biased conclusion: Might be even more money than the previous stat, as it gives some insight into the WHY

Total Defense:

2020 - 56th
2019 - 54th
2018 - 92nd
2017 - 94th

Spoiler

Personally biased conclusion: Chins is way down the list of whipping boys, but he's the Iowan, so maybe he still deserves it. Still, mediocre and must be better, especially in the B1G.

Yards Per Play - Defense:

2020 - 56th
2019 - 55th
2018 - 78th
2017 - 109th

Spoiler

Personally biased conclusion: Dear lord, Mr. Argyle.

Scoring Defense:

2020 - 67th
2019 - 61st
2018 - 94nd
2017 - 114th

Spoiler

Personally biased conclusion: No demonstrable delta between yardage and points rankings except for Disco Bob...yikes.

Yards Per Point - Defense:

2020 - 87th
2019 - 71st
2018 - 94th
2017 - 120th

Spoiler

Personally biased conclusion: Last two seasons are diverging a bit, likely a consequence of shit special teams.

Spoiler

One last incredibly biased, perhaps made-up statistic:

Shitty, no good, play- and drive-wrecking snaps:

2019-2020 - eleventy billion
2017-2018 - no idea, because this is a stat you SHOULDN'T remember

To compile just 2020:

Fewest Penalties Per Game - 95th
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game - 98th
Turnover Margin Per Game - 122nd
Total Offense - 63rd
Yards Per Play - Offense - 71st
Scoring Offense - 101st
Yards Per Point - Offense - 117th
Total Defense - 56th
Yards Per Play - Defense - 56th
Scoring Defense - 67th
Yards Per Point - Defense - 87th

Editorial: Best statistical category is yardage given up. And that's 56th. No way, no how do these numbers point to a team that is 45th. These numbers, much more importantly, also point to a team that greatly regressed this year.

 

[kenyanfeline]

On a separate related point, which is foundational to your argument, you've set up a false dichotomy and made the assumption that the biases that lead to these two potential outcomes are equivalent AND that there is a middle truth. That's a pretty flawed assumption in my (yes, biased) view and also a biased analysis in its own right without any consideration for the FPI model biases and assumptions.

My point was that we’re not as bad as many pessimists assume

The algorithm doesn’t get the benefit of actually watching the product in action. Real people who do get to see the games, who aren’t blinded by fanaticism, see the product for what it is - below average.

Hopefully that changes, but I have my doubts Frost will be the one to get it done. Three years of being consistently out coached with players repeating the same mistakes over and over has led me to this opinion.

Thats exactly the point. I come to a completely different conclusion than you when I watch our games. I see a product that doesn’t look pretty but it’s obvious to me we are close. A little here. A little there.

Hence why I looked at it through data instead of my (or your) biased point of view.

 

[Jim14510]

Scoring Offense - 101st

Thats one I definitely didn't think we'd see in year 3 of Frost. Very disappointing.

 

[Driveway Jordan]

I swear I saw this on RSS. I would rather hear more on Waterboy...

 

[ThomOsborneMD]

We’re fucking great at football

 

[hothouse_corn]

OP, how did this go on the RRS?

 

[Baron Winnebago]

OP, how did this go on the RRS?

Doesn't seem to have gotten a ton of play

 

[hothouse_corn]

I think, from looking at the team stats for the Rutgers game. that there are only a few deviations from back when the majority of these would have resulted in a 52-7 NU win. Return yards, and penalties. Scott needs to get on the phone with whoever ran special teams for Frank and figure something out. Recall, NU would have three returners on punts and would regularly have outstanding punt returns.



From the pic, you can see the discrepancy between the offense and defense for both teams, and the only difference between this and games back then is penalties (or number of kickoffs). Include the bottom of the team stats, you also see the special team problems:



Penalties, discipline, turnovers, and special teams are the key. At the same time, Crouch and Lord turned the ball over quite a bit, but penalties and special teams weren't much of an issue then, at least in my memory.

 

[Mavsker]

I kind of agree but I also don’t feel like you can just completely ignore the Illinois game so that we can call ourselves average. The Illinois game happened. Those are the types of games that separate the average from the bad and we found ourselves on the bad end of that.

Had we won the Illinois game most everyone would agree we were average. Instead we got fucking rocked by a bad team. That’s what makes us closer to bad than average imo.

 

[HuskerGarrett]

I kind of agree but I also don’t feel like you can just completely ignore the Illinois game so that we can call ourselves average. The Illinois game happened. Those are the types of games that separate the average from the bad and we found ourselves on the bad end of that.

Had we won the Illinois game most everyone would agree we were average. Instead we got fucking rocked by a bad team. That’s what makes us closer to bad than average imo.

I choose to pretend that game never happened. So we are good in my eyes

 

[Jim14510]

I choose to pretend that game never happened. So we are good in my eyes

I like to pretend all losses didn't happen. Kind of sucks that we only played 3 games this year but at least we were undefeated!

 

[Faux Sean Callahan]

End of the season. So it’s our FPI at the end of each year from 2017-2020.

Does fpi break it out by offense defense special teams?

 

[BBTown Bomber]

Since I’m one of the old fucks here I would first like to say “thank you” to the guys itt who have obviously spent a fair amount of time and effort putting these detailed analysis together. Good stuff even if they’re each subject to challenge by others.

All that said why in the FUCK can’t we teach a very athletic young man (with hopefully good hand/eye coordination) how to snap the ball to our QB.

“Dear Dr. Phil”.......🤬

.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

Since I’m one of the old fucks here I would first like to say “thank you” to the guys itt who have obviously spent a fair amount of time and effort putting these detailed analysis together. Good stuff even if they’re each subject to challenge by others.

All that said why in the FUCK can’t we teach a very athletic young man (with hopefully good hand/eye coordination) how to snap the ball to our QB.

“Dear Dr. Phil”.......🤬

.

You typed some words here, but my brain translates it to "run the goddamn bawl langsdork"

 

[BBTown Bomber]

You typed some words here, but my brain translates it to "run the goddamn bawl langsdork"

A solid run game sure as shit opens up lots of other options but yore reading too much into my post. Almost every single time there’s a fucked up snap, bad things happen. Don’t over think this Baron....... 😎

.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

A solid run game sure as shit opens up lots of other options but yore reading too much into my post. Almost every single time there’s a fucked up snap, bad things happen. Don’t over think this Baron....... 😎

.

I've got one setting brother/sister and that's overthink

 

[hothouse_corn]

I've got one setting brother/sister and that's overthink

Makes sense and checks out.

 

[kenyanfeline]

Does fpi break it out by offense defense special teams?

Yes, and it heavily weighs SOS.

It basically says that if next week, we played the most average team in the country, our offense would contribute +/- X points to the final score, our defense would contribute +/- Y points to the final score, and our special teams would contribute +/- Z points to the final score.

X+Y+Z = # of points we would beat that average team by. In this case, it predicts that we would win by about 5 points.

Our FPI looking better than our record indicates that the algorithm thinks the B1G is extremely strong this year.

Sportsbettingdime.com ranks our SOS as #4 in the nation FWIW. ESPN has us #16 in SOS, so there is definitely parity between publications, but we obviously played a brutal schedule either way.