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ESPN FPI
This is probably TLDR for many. Sorry in advance.
I am biased and so are you. I’m typically an optimistic sunshine pumper. Some of you are pessimistic taters. Hopefully, if we look at ESPN FPI, we can find some middle ground by looking at some unbiased numbers. The old saying “the truth is always somewhere in between” is something people on both sides need to remember.
ESPN FPI is an algorithm that “represents how many points above or below average a team is.” It’s thought to be one of, if not the most accurate algorithm for predicting and evaluating college football games.
1. First I decided to simply take a look at FPI to see what it tells us about how good of a team we are, who we beat/lost to, and the progress we have/haven’t made since 2017. Keep in mind this is only one metric and is what computers say about us. Your eyes may tell you something else, but I’m leaving that out of it.
Many on here and nearly everyone over on Tater Island says we are below average and one of the worst P5 teams in the country. Kansas level.
But here’s the deal. We are ranked 45 nationally with an FPI of 4.9. That means it predicts that if we play the most average team in the nation, we would be projected to win by 5 points. I was surprised by this based on all of the chatter
There are 9 non-P5 teams ranked ahead of us.
There are 36 P5 teams ranked ahead of us.
Out of 65 P5 schools, that puts us pretty much right in the middle.
Bottom Line: We are average. We are not good. We are not bad. We are average.
2. Second, I took a look at who we played and the outcomes of those games through the scope of FPI. Remember, we were loo ranked 41st. I bolded all teams that were within +/- 20 of us in FPI ranking, as those are the teams we should be competing with.
In the games I bolded (+/-20 FPI ranking), we went 2-3 and had a +/- of -0.8 ppg. If you include Illinois and Rutgers (outside of +/-20 FPI ranking), we end up 3-4 with a +/- of -2.1 ppg.
To me, this table also says we are average. We lost to teams ranked ahead of us by 35, 8, 7, and 6 points, respectively. We beat teams ranked behind us by 10 and 7 points. We beat PSU, who was ranked 24 spots ahead of us, by 7. And we lost to a terrible Illinois team ranked 28 spots behind us by 18.
The Illinois game seems to be an anomaly. Every other game seems to indicate that we are average. We kept games close against all other teams not named OSU.
Bottom Line: We did not underperform outside of one game. We did just about exactly how we should have done. If you take a step back and rinse the bad taste of the Illinois game out of your mouth, we were decidedly average this season.
3. Now, a lot of people have strong feelings regarding if we are making progress or not. So finally, I thought I would track our FPI from 2017 to 2020.
Now, the two things you are looking at on this chart are FPI and FPI rank. Again, FPI is a predictor of if we played the most average team in the country, what we would win or lose by. FPI rank is simply our ranking out of all FBS teams.
Since Mike Riley’s departure in 2017, our FPI has increased every year, and so has our ranking. Has it increased by as much we had hoped? No. But it has still increased every year.
Bottom line: We ARE making progress. As much as we wanted? Again, no. But progress is being made nonetheless.
4. Finally, from a non-objective point of view, I will talk from a biased perspective about how close I think we are.
Think about how many games we lost this year by 1-2 scores. If you are like me, you can probably point to 2-3 plays in each of those games that lost it for us.
I hear talk all the time about how we are 1 good QB from winning this game. We are 1 good WR from winning that game. We are a healthy running back from winning another game. We are 2 penalties or 1 turnover from winning another, et
That notion is absolutely correct. We are in fact one or two plays a game from being 5-2 with losses to OSU and Illinois. But that isn’t how life works and we can’t get those plays or games back.
When this team turns the corner, it isn’t going to be because of one player. It isn’t going to be from playing mistake-free football. It’s going to be about several different parts of our program that have held us back getting just a little bit better, all at the same time.
That isn’t going to be fixed in the transfer portal or in the recruiting rankings. That is going to be fixed in the off-season with dedication and reps. AM or whoever the QB is next year is going to get a little bit better at ball security. Our running backs are going to get a little more consistent. Our young WR’s are going to learn the playbook a little better and get on the field a little more. Our pass rush is going to home 1-2 times more per game. And Frost is going to get a little better at managing games and play calling.
All of those things have been improving. Again, maybe not as much as we want, but improving nonetheless. We’ve had setbacks like Mo Washington and JD leaving, AM regressing, etc. But despite all of that, we HAVE improved.
We’re all tired of hearing Frost say we are “close” to turning the corner. I know it’s hard to see from our perspective. But take a step back, look at the whole picture. I believe him that we are close to turning the corner, and you should too. It’s going to be a lot of fun when we do and I hope you are all still here to witness it.
This is probably TLDR for many. Sorry in advance.
I am biased and so are you. I’m typically an optimistic sunshine pumper. Some of you are pessimistic taters. Hopefully, if we look at ESPN FPI, we can find some middle ground by looking at some unbiased numbers. The old saying “the truth is always somewhere in between” is something people on both sides need to remember.
ESPN FPI is an algorithm that “represents how many points above or below average a team is.” It’s thought to be one of, if not the most accurate algorithm for predicting and evaluating college football games.
1. First I decided to simply take a look at FPI to see what it tells us about how good of a team we are, who we beat/lost to, and the progress we have/haven’t made since 2017. Keep in mind this is only one metric and is what computers say about us. Your eyes may tell you something else, but I’m leaving that out of it.
Many on here and nearly everyone over on Tater Island says we are below average and one of the worst P5 teams in the country. Kansas level.
But here’s the deal. We are ranked 45 nationally with an FPI of 4.9. That means it predicts that if we play the most average team in the nation, we would be projected to win by 5 points. I was surprised by this based on all of the chatter
There are 9 non-P5 teams ranked ahead of us.
There are 36 P5 teams ranked ahead of us.
Out of 65 P5 schools, that puts us pretty much right in the middle.
Bottom Line: We are average. We are not good. We are not bad. We are average.
2. Second, I took a look at who we played and the outcomes of those games through the scope of FPI. Remember, we were loo ranked 41st. I bolded all teams that were within +/- 20 of us in FPI ranking, as those are the teams we should be competing with.
| Opponent | FPI Rank | Outcome |
| OSU | 2 | L by 35 |
| NW | 23 | L by 8 |
| PSU | 21 | W by 7 |
| ILL | 79 | L by 18 |
| Cockeye | 11 | L by 6 |
| Purdue | 51 | W by 10 |
| Minn | 41 | L by 7 |
| Rutgers | 70 | W by 7 |
In the games I bolded (+/-20 FPI ranking), we went 2-3 and had a +/- of -0.8 ppg. If you include Illinois and Rutgers (outside of +/-20 FPI ranking), we end up 3-4 with a +/- of -2.1 ppg.
To me, this table also says we are average. We lost to teams ranked ahead of us by 35, 8, 7, and 6 points, respectively. We beat teams ranked behind us by 10 and 7 points. We beat PSU, who was ranked 24 spots ahead of us, by 7. And we lost to a terrible Illinois team ranked 28 spots behind us by 18.
The Illinois game seems to be an anomaly. Every other game seems to indicate that we are average. We kept games close against all other teams not named OSU.
Bottom Line: We did not underperform outside of one game. We did just about exactly how we should have done. If you take a step back and rinse the bad taste of the Illinois game out of your mouth, we were decidedly average this season.
3. Now, a lot of people have strong feelings regarding if we are making progress or not. So finally, I thought I would track our FPI from 2017 to 2020.
| Year | FPI (pts +/- average) | Rank |
| 2017 (MR) | -2.1 | 70 |
| 2018 (SF) | +3.1 | 57 |
| 2019 (SF) | +4.5 | 47 |
| 2020 (SF) | +4.9 | 41 |
Now, the two things you are looking at on this chart are FPI and FPI rank. Again, FPI is a predictor of if we played the most average team in the country, what we would win or lose by. FPI rank is simply our ranking out of all FBS teams.
Since Mike Riley’s departure in 2017, our FPI has increased every year, and so has our ranking. Has it increased by as much we had hoped? No. But it has still increased every year.
Bottom line: We ARE making progress. As much as we wanted? Again, no. But progress is being made nonetheless.
4. Finally, from a non-objective point of view, I will talk from a biased perspective about how close I think we are.
Think about how many games we lost this year by 1-2 scores. If you are like me, you can probably point to 2-3 plays in each of those games that lost it for us.
I hear talk all the time about how we are 1 good QB from winning this game. We are 1 good WR from winning that game. We are a healthy running back from winning another game. We are 2 penalties or 1 turnover from winning another, et
That notion is absolutely correct. We are in fact one or two plays a game from being 5-2 with losses to OSU and Illinois. But that isn’t how life works and we can’t get those plays or games back.
When this team turns the corner, it isn’t going to be because of one player. It isn’t going to be from playing mistake-free football. It’s going to be about several different parts of our program that have held us back getting just a little bit better, all at the same time.
That isn’t going to be fixed in the transfer portal or in the recruiting rankings. That is going to be fixed in the off-season with dedication and reps. AM or whoever the QB is next year is going to get a little bit better at ball security. Our running backs are going to get a little more consistent. Our young WR’s are going to learn the playbook a little better and get on the field a little more. Our pass rush is going to home 1-2 times more per game. And Frost is going to get a little better at managing games and play calling.
All of those things have been improving. Again, maybe not as much as we want, but improving nonetheless. We’ve had setbacks like Mo Washington and JD leaving, AM regressing, etc. But despite all of that, we HAVE improved.
We’re all tired of hearing Frost say we are “close” to turning the corner. I know it’s hard to see from our perspective. But take a step back, look at the whole picture. I believe him that we are close to turning the corner, and you should too. It’s going to be a lot of fun when we do and I hope you are all still here to witness it.
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