(Gasparilla Bowl for NU)
College football bowl projections: Early playoff predictions, matchups for every game in 2023
Way-too-early picks for every bowl game coming out of spring practice.
BRAD CRAWFORD 4 hrs ago
You
know college football bowl projections are big here, and it's that time of year — after spring practice — to examine potential 2023 postseason matchups.
Of course, it's impossible to be completely accurate at this point, but it is prediction time for the College Football Playoff and New Year's Six, all the way down to the Bahamas Bowl before Christmas.
It is important to keep in mind that, outside of the New Year's Six and certain contract bowl games, ESPN and bowl organizers have a lot of control over who goes where in the smaller-tier games.
Factors such as travel considerations and ratings based on matchups play a big role in determining which teams go to which bowls.
These projections are all subject to change, especially with the Big 12 still figuring out its affiliations after expansion, and other conferences having more bowl-eligible teams than spots available.
But don't worry, the powers that be behind the scenes will sort it all out, and it's rare that a bowl-eligible team doesn't get a chance to play in the postseason.
Here is a look at postseason projections coming out of spring.
Los Angeles Bowl
Projected matchup: San Diego State vs. Arizona
Here is a Pac-12 team in the Pac-12 that does not get enough attention, but they deserve some. Arizona lost WR1 Dorian Singer to USC in the portal, but the Wildcats do welcome back their top touchdown scorer in running back Michael Wiley and this offense is going to be capable of scoring a lot of points. They press the issue on that side of the football.
New Mexico Bowl
Projected matchup: Air Force vs. WKU
Lending Tree Bowl
Projected matchup: Georgia Southern vs. Toledo
Potato Bowl
Projected matchup: San Jose State vs. Miami (Ohio)
Frisco Bowl
Projected matchup: Cincinnati vs. SMU
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Projected matchup: UCF vs. Troy
The Big 12 is not affiliated with the Myrtle Beach Bowl, but where will one of the league's mid-tier teams fit in the postseason given expansion? Who knows. This one's a guess.
John Rhys Plumlee is back as the Knights' starting quarterback under Gus Malzahn, who has a new offensive coordinator after his left for the opening at North Carolina.
Fenway Bowl
Projected matchup: Wake Forest vs. Boise State
New Orleans Bowl
Projected matchup: Liberty vs. South Alabama
Boca Raton Bowl
Projected matchup: Appalachian State vs. UAB
Cure Bowl
Projected matchup: Army vs. James Madison
Armed Forces Bowl
Projected matchup: Kansas vs. Middle Tennessee
Who knows if the Jayhawks can continue their climb, but with Jalon Daniels at quarterback, this Kansas team is going to be a nightmare to defend for other Big 12 teams.
There are some holes on the roster that still need to be addressed, but currently, this two-deep should be able to get back to bowl season and perhaps win a postseason game.
Las Vegas Bowl
Projected matchup: Kentucky vs. UCLA
Independence Bowl
Projected matchup: BYU vs. Washington State
(Photo: Steven Branscombe, Getty)
Gasparilla Bowl
Projected matchup: Mississippi State vs. Nebraska
Two first-year coaches meeting in Tampa to end the season? Seems like a job well done for both parties.
For Nebraska, it marks a substantial development under Matt Rhule, who is tasked with bringing the Huskers back to respectability after the horrors under Scott Frost.
Another team with a transfer starter under center, Georgia Tech's Jeff Sims may finally get a chance to play in a bowl game.
Hawaii Bowl
Projected matchup: UTSA vs. Utah State
Bahamas Bowl
Projected matchup: North Texas vs. Ohio
Quick Lane Bowl
Projected matchup: Purdue vs. Western Michigan
Winning six games would be a big deal for Ryan Walters at Purdue given what he has inherited. Jeff Brohm left the Boilermakers for his alma-mater and credit the decision-makers for moving quick on their guy. September could determine where this team stands under its new regime.
There are winnable games in the first month and then there are games that could push Purdue to the next level nearing the midseason junction.
Camellia Bowl
Projected matchup: Eastern Michigan vs. Coastal Carolina
Birmingham Bowl
Projected matchup: Memphis vs. Auburn
Bowl eligibility in Year 1 for Hugh Freeze on the Plains would appease the fanbase as long as there aren't many lopsided losses mixed into a .500 or 7-5 season.
Auburn's not far away from being a tough out in the SEC West and the Tigers believe they've signed a few instant-impact portal players — including Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne — that bring instant competition to vital position groups.
First Responder Bowl
Projected matchup: Baylor vs. Florida
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Projected matchup: Kansas State vs. Michigan State
Mel Tucker lost his potential starting quarterback and the Spartans' best play-making wide receiver to the transfer portal prior to the spring window closing.
Perhaps those two Spartans knew something we don't? Michigan State only needs to get to six wins to get here and we think they can do it. Kansas State dropping
this far after winning the Big 12 in 2022 would be a major fall, but there are some key pieces no longer there.
Holiday Bowl
Projected matchup: NC State vs. Utah
Liberty Bowl
Projected matchup: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
Bowl organizers and participating schools would allow this one to happen, we hope. Missouri owns a 29-24 all-time advantage in this battle of two former Big 12 rivals, but Oklahoma State won the last meeting in 2018 (Liberty Bowl).
Peeking at the Cowboys' schedule, it wouldn't be all that surprising if Mike Gundy has this team vying for a spot in the conference title game entering the final month of the season.
Military Bowl
Projected matchup: ECU vs. Louisville
Alamo Bowl
Projected matchup: Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Should the Ducks finish short of the New Year's Six, it comes via close losses to other Pac-12 elites. Consider Oregon in that group as well.
That might be the toughest conference to call when you look at the wealth of quarterback talent out there. Brent Venables hopes to finish with a winning record in Year 2 with the Sooners. If not, the jeers begin and they will be loud.
Texas Bowl
Projected matchup: Texas A&M vs. TCU
Pinstripe Bowl
Projected matchup: Duke vs. Cockeye
Sun Bowl
Projected matchup: Oregon State vs. North Carolina
Can the Tar Heels get back to the ACC Championship Game? It's going to be a stiff challenge, even with Drake Maye returning at quarterback. Clemson and Florida State are top-10 teams, Miami should be better and there are others in the mid-tier who will be fighting for a spot in the top-half of the league standings.
Losing Phil Longo to Wisconsin as Maye's right-hand man (play-caller) and Josh Downs to the NFL is something to watch.
Arizona Bowl
Projected matchup: Fresno State vs. Buffalo
Cheez-It Bowl
Projected matchup: Texas Tech vs. Miami
The Hurricanes are going to bounce back as a contender in the ACC during Mario Cristobal's second season — or so the projection goes. Miami recruited in the 2023 cycle and prioritized the transfer portal by filling several needs.
The program has a sizable game early with Texas A&M. The Red Raiders won eight games last fall, including four straight to end 2022 as one of the Big 12's hottest teams.
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Projected matchup: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois
Gaytor Bowl
Projected matchup: Arkansas vs. Florida State
Surprised to see the Seminoles outside of the New Year's Six? Don't be. There are always teams inside the preseason top 10 which don't quite meet lofty expectations and Florida State is one of those squads for me.
Three projected losses for Mike Norvell's team come against LSU, at Clemson and a split against Duke and Pittsburgh (on the road).
Music City Bowl
Projected matchup: Ole Miss vs. Maryland
ReliaQuest Bowl
Projected matchup: South Carolina vs. Minnesota
Expect a handful of SEC teams to finish 7-5 in a top-heavy conference, which leaves the Gamecocks heading back to Florida for bowl season for the second-consecutive season.
South Carolina lobbied against Tampa last year, but will not get to be too choosy next time around given the allowances made between bowl committees for the 2022 season's Gamecocks-Fighting Irish matchup.
Citrus Bowl
Projected matchup: Tennessee vs. Wisconsin
Orlando gets first pick of SEC teams once the New Year's Six is finalized and since the Vols are going to finish second in the East behind Georgia, again this is a projection, Tennessee goes to the Citrus.
Steve Spurrier infamously said, "you can't spell Citrus without UT" and ironically, the Vols haven't played here since the end of the 2001 season against Michigan.
FIESTA BOWL
(Photo: Getty)
Projected matchup: Notre Dame vs. Washington
Notre Dame is familiar with the Fiesta Bowl. In fact, it seems like every time the Fighting Irish play in a "big" bowl game, this is where they're sent. Washington, as a 10-win team in the Pac-12, gets to the New Year's Six in 2023 thanks to Michael Penix Jr.'s Heisman-caliber campaign.
This potential matchup of top 10s would be an interesting watch.
New Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman's final game in front of NFL scouts would give this one some extra meaning for the Wake Forest transfer.
COTTON BOWL
(Photo: Getty)
Projected matchup: LSU vs. USC
Back to the Cotton for USC, this time as Pac-12 champions? It's a possibility. And if the Trojans can get through a treacherous slate unbeaten, they play in the conference title game with a playoff berth on the line.
Another potential double digit-win season for LSU is coming for Brian Kelly in Year 2, but not putting this team in the playoff just yet as the SEC champion.
If the Tigers are able to get to Atlanta 12-0, however, they can get in the final four even with a loss to projected SEC champion Georgia.
ORANGE BOWL
(Photo: Getty)
Projected matchup: Clemson vs. Penn State
Florida State seems to be the preseason frontrunner in the ACC this spring, which is more than enough bulletin board material for Dabo Swinney.
The Tigers come off another conference championship under his guidance and now have a difference-maker at quarterback who develops under new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley.
A lot has to go right for Clemson to get back to the New Year's Six in 2023, but this program's been too consistent to play second fiddle to the Seminoles right now.
Penn State's two biggest games are Michigan and Ohio State. A split against that pair could get the Nittany Lions closer to the playoff.
PEACH BOWL
(Photo: Getty)
Projected matchup: Alabama vs. Tulane
Going to go ahead and apologize to Alabama fans in May. The Crimson Tide could fail to get to the playoff, again, thanks to two regular-season losses. Their reward? A possible matchup with the Group of Five champion. We're thinking Tulane or Boise State in this spot.
Michael Pratt's back for the Green Wave, but that team did lose several key pieces from last year's historical run under Willie Fritz. Nick Saban's not going to like another postseason game without a title up for grabs, but it is what it is with a quarterback situation defined by too many lingering questions.
CFB PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL (SUGAR BOWL)
(Photo: Getty)
Projected matchup: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Michigan
This again? The Bulldogs and Wolverines played two years ago down in Miami and Georgia steamrolled Jim Harbaugh's team. This marks Michigan's third-straight trip to the playoff and the Wolverines have not won a game yet. Georgia goes for a three-peat, unprecedented in the modern era.
The more things change, the more they stay the same and we're expecting the Bulldogs to get back to the final four as the top seed once again. Have you looked at their regular-season slate?
CFB PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL (ROSE BOWL)
(Photo: Getty)
Projected matchup: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Texas
With a win at Alabama in Week 2, early-season College Football Playoff buzz will center on Texas. Will the Longhorns handle the pressure
if they take out the Crimson Tide? That's the biggest question. Aside from the November showdown with LSU, this is Alabama's most important game and it happens to come early for new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees and a first-year starter at quarterback. Quinn Ewers is a potential 2024 first-round draft pick, so right now, Texas has a clear advantage at the most important position on the field, unlike like last season's game. Meanwhile, second-seeded Ohio State needs no introduction.
CFB PLAYOFF NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
(Photo: Getty)
Projected matchup: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Three consecutive national championships for the Bulldogs? Kirby Smart's squad has to beat the Buckeyes again to do it. These two squads are stacked and if Ohio State can get through a challenging Big Ten schedule with one loss or fewer, we expect the selection committee to put the Buckeyes back in a semifinal setting. Carson Beck against Kyle McCord in this quarterback matchup would be intriguing, along with Ryan Day trying to become the next first-time national championship-winning head coach.