I’ve tracked the shot charts every game and it’s very apparent the rules here are you don’t take shots outside the paint unless it’s a 3 ball.
Berke’s 15 footer to start the game Saturday was the only exception in the last 5 or 6 games.
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Nebrasketball: Quad breakdown + odds to dance ** Updated 1/19/26 **
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I’ve tracked the shot charts every game and it’s very apparent the rules here are you don’t take shots outside the paint unless it’s a 3 ball.
Berke’s 15 footer to start the game Saturday was the only exception in the last 5 or 6 games.
Makes sense. His teams always seem to move best that way. The only exception I can think of is Brice as he was nails from mid range.
Sandfort had a fun comment after the Illinois game which was "I opened with a contested mid range and I'm glad it went in otherwise I would have gotten reamed"
I think BK got away with it because he was standing on the FT line alone
Yep - that’s a green light all day long
IIRC donors got a special video of him breaking down his offense the year he was hired. I think it was leaked on the scrolls. Wish I could find it again
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance
- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed
As of 1/19/26 results (18-0, 7-0)
This week we went 2-0; 1 win against Q2 at Northwestern and Q3 Oregon. Currently #6 in NET...
Net positive - gained 1 more Q2 win (at Northwestern) and 1 more Q3 win (Oregon)
Net negative - none (all quad opponents remained the same)
Q1 = 5-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, New Mexico
Q2 = 5-0; Wisconsin, Pickle Smoochers, Oklahoma, Northwestern, Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; Oregon, Winthrop
Q4 = 6-0; FIU, USC Upstate, North Dakota, West Georgia, UMES, New Hampshire
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)
Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q3), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Maryland moved from Q4 to Q3
As of 1/12/26 results (16-0, 5-0)
This week we went 2-0; 2 wins against Q1's at Ohio State & at Indiana. Currently remain #11 in NET...
Net positive - gained 2 more Q1 wins (Buckeyes & Hoosiers)
Net negative - none (Oklahoma & New Mexico flipped quads as did FIU & Winthrop)
Q1 = 5-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, New Mexico (Q2 last week)
Q2 = 4-0; Wisconsin, Pickle Smoochers, Oklahoma (Q1 last week), Kansas State
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop (was Q4 last week)
Q4 = 6-0; FIU (was Q3 last week), USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, New Hampshire, UMES
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)
Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Maryland
Net positive - gained 2 more Q1 wins (Buckeyes & Hoosiers)
Net negative - none (Oklahoma & New Mexico flipped quads as did FIU & Winthrop)
Q1 = 5-0; Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, New Mexico (Q2 last week)
Q2 = 4-0; Wisconsin, Pickle Smoochers, Oklahoma (Q1 last week), Kansas State
Q3 = 1-0; Winthrop (was Q4 last week)
Q4 = 6-0; FIU (was Q3 last week), USC Upstate, West Georgia, North Dakota, New Hampshire, UMES
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)
Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Jan - Oregon (Q3), @ Northwestern (Q2), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Maryland
If you look at the stats, Nebraska is very high in terms of the number of 3s taken, high in terms of 3 pt fg% and very high in terms of forcing the other team to take a lot of threes. So the games come down to the fact that we like our shooters a lot better than your shooters.
Also that Nebraska is very confident it can get good looks on their 3s and contest almost all of your threes
I think the difference this year is how many shooters we have. When you only have 1 or 2 guys that you can trust to hit a 3 you become very easy to guard on the perimeter. This year’s team has Sanfort, Mast, Hoiberg, Frager, Lawrence. (also Jacobsen/Berke can, at times, hit from 3 too)
That’s 5 guys that can consistently hit from range and another 2 that are capable outside shooters. When we’re on, you just can’t guard 7 different 3 pt shooters, almost impossible.
Men's Basketball 2025-26 Cumulative Statistics
+ 16 point scoring margin per game
47% FG Opp 39%
35% from Three Opp 31%
More stats in our favor, but there are other stats I'd like to see such as 2nd chance points, points off turnovers, fast break points etc
Men's Basketball 2025-26 Cumulative Statistics
huskers.com
+ 16 point scoring margin per game
47% FG Opp 39%
35% from Three Opp 31%
More stats in our favor, but there are other stats I'd like to see such as 2nd chance points, points off turnovers, fast break points etc
The second chance points is something I don’t envision us ever being great in. We sacrifice offensive boards for us being able to stop transition buckets for the other team
Men's Basketball 2025-26 Cumulative Statistics
+ 16 point scoring margin per game
47% FG Opp 39%
35% from Three Opp 31%
More stats in our favor, but there are other stats I'd like to see such as 2nd chance points, points off turnovers, fast break points etc
Nebraska is kind of unique in the sense that they force a lot of dead ball turnovers. I bet they force at least 3 to 5 errant passes out of bounds per game. You aren't going to produce fast break points that way.
you guys are right, the style of play from this team is pretty unique. Offensive glass is something that has been pounded into my head since my college ball days. We played the run and gun, think UNLV, and we crashed boards constantly. But I understand Fred's style more and more and especially since this team is how he wants Hoiball to look. I LOVE IT!! but it still drives me crazy when I see ZERO dudes in the paint on the offensive side ( I understand it though)
Thanks for the inputs!!
What a wild and crazy ride this team is on!!
Thanks for the inputs!!
What a wild and crazy ride this team is on!!
Plus, good shooting teams generally don’t pull down a lot of offensive rebounds. You have to miss the shot for it to be rebounded.
This is a great point, and we are shooting well from the field but I wonder if the question is "How many transition points does Nebraska give up per game or per defensive rebound?" how do we find that stat?
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Nebraska's High Major Statistical National Rankings (not including low or mid majors because who cares if Utah Valley State is spreading the ball vs. Texas Rio Grande):
Assist to Turnover Ratio: 3rd
Assists - 9th
Effective FG % - 13th
FG Percentage Defense - 4th
Scoring Defense - 9th
Scoring Margin - 14th
Turnovers per game - 3rd - although Nebraska is 1st in the league for Big Ten games only.
Turnover margin - 5th
Fouls per game - 2nd
Free Throw percentage - 28th nationally. - But they' were awful in the non con at only 73% - Now shooting 81% in conference games. crazy improvement.
Made 3 pointers per game - 6th
3 point percentage defense - 17th
WINNING PCT - #1 MOTHERFUCKKKERRRRRRSSSS
Assist to Turnover Ratio: 3rd
Assists - 9th
Effective FG % - 13th
FG Percentage Defense - 4th
Scoring Defense - 9th
Scoring Margin - 14th
Turnovers per game - 3rd - although Nebraska is 1st in the league for Big Ten games only.
Turnover margin - 5th
Fouls per game - 2nd
Free Throw percentage - 28th nationally. - But they' were awful in the non con at only 73% - Now shooting 81% in conference games. crazy improvement.
Made 3 pointers per game - 6th
3 point percentage defense - 17th
WINNING PCT - #1 MOTHERFUCKKKERRRRRRSSSS
IDK, but I bet we’re top 10 nationally. We don’t give up many transition points period. @...TrueColors... was 💯 correct that Fred would, in most cases, rather have our backcourt guys get back on defense as opposed to crashing the offense glass.
If you’re confident that you can, as a team, shoot at or around 50% from the field it makes no sense to have you backcourt players crashing the offense glass. Let your bigs pull’em down when they can, get your guards back on D to prevent transition scoring.
Really hard with 5 defenders.
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