ShortSideOption said:

For sure, definitely different players. Though as I've referenced in this thread, you wouldn't have to be replacing your entire front 7 this year if White/Knighton had stayed.

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Good points. let me play devils advocate. Let’s say White still leaves but we’re not replacing 7 this year. How does Butler do? I know this is a lot of what ifs, but I’ve got nothing else to do right now. Lol

TampaBaySkers said:

Yes - he’s a huge upgrade over Diaco and Chins. I don’t think anyone would argue with you there

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Baited that hook pretty juicy for the comeback to be "ya we just haven't had good DCs."

What about comparing him nationally? If 11th and 20th in the country isn't that great because we play in the B1G and it's going to take top 10 to be considered a good DC that's a pretty tall ask. I guess let's see if Butler does better this year then I'll come back and eat crow.

Blakejc said:

he’s lucky to be avoiding Indiana, Ohio state, and Oregon. And to a lesser extent Illinois and Washington. Butler’s toughest challenges are USC and who else? Maryland? Michigan might have been the 2nd best offense we see all year.

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I think that's my point. He's not going to play nearly as tough opposing offenses and will still end up outside the top 25 IMO. Again, I will happily be wrong here I just don't see it.

nscottie said:

Good points. let me play devils advocate. Let’s say White still leaves but we’re not replacing 7 this year. How does Butler do? I know this is a lot of what ifs, but I’ve got nothing else to do right now. Lol

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Ya I think Butler would certainly do better with more returning players up front, or anywhere on his defense, as any coach does. Which circles it back to the continuity thing I've been clamoring about.

I don't think Butler is as good of a DC as Tony White, but again I'll happily be wrong since he's our guy now. I think Butler is more in the Mark Banker, John Papuchis, Carl Pelini level of guys we've had that put up worse numbers than Tony White's who "isn't that big of a loss." Certainly not as bad as Chins or Diaco. But I think Butler will leave here and he will be in the 30s/40s scoring defense range despite having easier schedules than Tony White. If he stays top 20 like White we will easily get to 9 or 10 wins and be in the CFP discussion in November.

ShortSideOption said:

Ya I think Butler would certainly do better with more returning players up front, or anywhere on his defense, as any coach does. Which circles it back to the continuity thing I've been clamoring about.

I don't think Butler is as good of a DC as Tony White, but again I'll happily be wrong since he's our guy now. I think Butler is more in the Mark Banker, John Papuchis, Carl Pelini level of guys we've had that put up worse numbers than Tony White's who "isn't that big of a loss." Certainly not as bad as Chins or Diaco. But I think Butler will leave here and he will be in the 30s/40s scoring defense range despite having easier schedules than Tony White. If he stays top 20 like White we will easily get to 9 or 10 wins and be in the CFP discussion in November.

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Thanks for the discussion. Always appreciate your input

ShortSideOption said:

I think that's my point. He's not going to play nearly as tough opposing offenses and will still end up outside the top 25 IMO. Again, I will happily be wrong here I just don't see it.

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We’ll see how the next couple weeks go, but I could see our defense being a statistical anomaly. There’s a chance we give up 300 yards a game and it’s split 200 rushing/100 passing. We might have a team that allows the least amount of passing yards since San Jose St. in 2014 allowed 117/game. And we go 7-5 or 8-4 and we’re lucky to do so.

I dunno, I’m just expecting things to get weird the next two months.

nscottie said:

Thanks for the discussion. Always appreciate your input

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Not necessarily about you, we just have a guy that statistically is our best coordinator since joining the conference, and it's really not even close, but people are telling me it's not a big loss and it was all about the conference we play in.

If it's really about the conference, I'm sure we've gotten lucky another time and fallen in the top 25 for defensive ppg since he did it every year he was in Lincoln... Here is a list of the 14 years in the B1G and the rankings by our OC/DC in ppg (28 total):

2014 - Tim Beck (10th)
2023 - Tony White (11th)
2024 - Tony White (20th)
2016 - Mark Banker (30th)
2012 - Tim Beck (37th)
2021 - Erik Chinander (37th)
2015 - Danny Langsdorf (37th)
2013 - John Papuchis (42nd)
2011 - Tim Beck (46th)
2011 - Carl Pelini (46th)
2013 - Tim Beck (52nd)
2014 - John Papuchis (53rd)
2018 - Troy Walters (54th)
2019 - Erik Chinander (61st)
2012 - John Papuchis (63rd)
2019 - Troy Walters (63rd)
2020 - Erik Chinander (64th)
2015 - Mark Banker (65th)
2016 - Danny Langsdorf (74th)
2022 - Erik Chinander/Bill Busch (75th)
2021 - Matt Lubick (79th)
2017 - Danny Langsdorf (80th)
2018 - Erik Chinander (94th)
2024 - Marcus Satterfield/Dana Holgerson (98th)
2020 - Matt Lubick (101st)
2022 - Mark Whipple (101st)
2017 - Bob Diaco (114th)
2023 - Marcus Satterfield (120th)

Blakejc said:

We’ll see how the next couple weeks go, but I could see our defense being a statistical anomaly. There’s a chance we give up 300 yards a game and it’s split 200 rushing/100 passing. We might have a team that allows the least amount of passing yards since San Jose St. in 2014 allowed 117/game. And we go 7-5 or 8-4 and we’re lucky to do so.

I dunno, I’m just expecting things to get weird the next two months.

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I am very interested about this Michigan State game. I was going to go across the river and place so much money on the overs at 48.5, but with 20-30 mph winds I've held off. I think we should be able to score on them, if we can hold them under 20 I will feel pretty good about things. I do expect us to come out with some new schemes which should help.

ShortSideOption said:

Not necessarily about you, we just have a guy that statistically is our best coordinator since joining the conference, and it's really not even close, but people are telling me it's not a big loss and it was all about the conference we play in.

If it's really about the conference, I'm sure we've gotten lucky another time and fallen in the top 25 for defensive ppg... Here is a list of the 14 years in the B1G and the rankings by our OC/DC in ppg (28 total):

2014 - Tim Beck (10th)
2023 - Tony White (11th)
2024 - Tony White (20th)
2016 - Mark Banker (30th)
2012 - Tim Beck (37th)
2021 - Erik Chinander (37th)
2015 - Danny Langsdorf (37th)
2013 - John Papuchis (42nd)
2011 - Tim Beck (46th)
2011 - Carl Pelini (46th)
2013 - Tim Beck (52nd)
2014 - John Papuchis (53rd)
2018 - Troy Walters (54th)
2019 - Erik Chinander (61st)
2012 - John Papuchis (63rd)
2019 - Troy Walters (63rd)
2020 - Erik Chinander (64th)
2015 - Mark Banker (65th)
2016 - Danny Langsdorf (74th)
2022 - Erik Chinander/Bill Busch (75th)
2021 - Matt Lubick (79th)
2017 - Danny Langsdorf (80th)
2018 - Erik Chinander (94th)
2024 - Marcus Satterfield/Dana Holgerson (98th)
2020 - Matt Lubick (101st)
2022 - Mark Whipple (101st)
2017 - Bob Diaco (114th)
2023 - Marcus Satterfield (120th)

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He got a lot of flack in real time, but a Tim Beck offense was productive and kept them in most games. Players made plays and we haven't had balance like that since.

Outside of Beck and TW, this is a very sad list of coaches that went on to do mostly nothing after NU and will be on no P4's radar as a coordinator again.