2025 Big Ten Football Predictions: Is Penn State ready for its spotlight moment?
by Stewart Mandel, The Athletic

The Big Ten is the toast of college football right now after back-to-back national championships from Michigan and Ohio State, and Penn State might make it three in a row. However, it’s jarring how an 18-team conference can have so few proven quarterbacks returning.

Penn State’s Drew Allar and Illinois’ Luke Altmyer lead the pack. No. 3 might be Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, who was decent in two seasons leading Cal. Or Cockeye’s Mark Gronowski, the South Dakota State transfer who was the FCS player of the year in 2023. After that, it’s a lot of former big-time recruits — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola, Oregon’s Dante Moore, UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava, Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin — who either haven’t played yet or haven’t fully proven themselves.

Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if the conference takes a step back this season.

Big Ten Predictions
1. Penn State (11-1, 8-1)
1. Ohio State (10-2, 8-1)
3. Cockeye (10-2, 7-2)
3. Michigan (9-3, 7-2)
5. Oregon (9-3, 6-3)
5. Indiana (9-3, 6-3)
7. Nebraska (8-4, 5-4)
7. Washington (8-4, 5-4)
7. Illinois (7-5, 5-4)
10. Minnesota (7-5, 4-5)
10. Michigan State (6-6, 4-5)
10. UCLA (6-6, 4-5)
10. USC (6-6, 4-5)
14. Rutgers (6-6, 3-6)
15. Wisconsin (4-8, 2-7)
15. Northwestern (4-8, 2-7)
17. Maryland (3-9, 1-8)
18. Purdue (2-10, 0-9)

Championship
Penn State over Ohio State

TOP CONTENDERS

Penn State: On paper, this team is loaded, starting with the Nick Singleton-Kaytron Allen backfield. Allar finally has some legit receivers to throw to with transfers Trebor Pena (Syracuse) and Kyron Hudson (USC). And Jim Knowles takes over another defense teeming with talent. Surely, James Franklin can’t screw this up, right?

Ohio State: The program has successfully reloaded year after year for more than two decades, but the core of last year’s title team was special, and Sayin is unproven. However, it helps having receivers like Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, plus Caleb Downs leading the secondary. The Buckeyes might take a step back, but they can still easily reach the CFP.

Cockeye: Remember all those years when we thought, man, if only Cockeye had a quarterback? Well, he's here. It's not a sure thing that Gronowski shines at the P4 level, but he should be a considerable upgrade. The offensive line could be dominant. And look at the schedule: No Ohio State or Michigan, while Penn State and Oregon are both at home.

Michigan: Michigan won eight games, including Ohio State and Alabama, despite abysmal quarterback play. If Underwood is even above-average, the Wolverines are a Top 25 team, thanks to a veteran defense with leaders like LB Ernest Hausmann and DE Derrick Moore. If Underwood is truly a phenom, Indianapolis is within reach.

Oregon: I see the Ducks taking a slight step back because Moore, the former UCLA QB, is not likely to be the next Bo Nix/Dillion Gabriel. However, Tulane RB Makhi Hughes has a chance to be Oregon’s next great back. The defense isn’t lacking talent, but it got exposed by Penn State and Ohio State to end last season.

Indiana: Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers aren’t going away yet. Mendoza is a capable replacement for Kurtis Rourke and has weapons around him, like wide receiver Elijah Sarratt. The offensive line should be better as well. However, there’s no escaping the fact that this is a much more brutal conference schedule, with trips to Cockeye, Oregon and Penn State.

OTHER NOTABLE TEAMS

Illinois: The closer we get, the more I think the Illini are a classic case of “big bowl win + returning starters = ranked too high the next year.” They did win 10 games, but the best of those wins came against Michigan (8-5). And they were 5-1 in one-score games, which often turns back around the following year. So, I’m going with 7-5.

Nebraska: My co-host Bruce Feldman is all in on this finally being the Huskers' year. I'm more cautious. Though I like Raiola, especially in Dana Holgorsen's offense, and the schedule does set up nicely, I have them at 8-4, which might not seem impressive, but it would still be the program's best season in nine years.

USC: What a weird situation. Lincoln Riley has finally built some momentum in recruiting. The Trojans currently have the No. 2 class in the country for 2026. As for 2025, though, it looks like another meh roster. If they go 6-6 again, fans will be calling for Riley’s head, but he’s too expensive to fire and can sell the guys coming in.

COACHES IN TROUBLE

Luke #2ndChoice: It’s been baffling to see the Cincinnati savior struggle so mightily in Madison. Even if his third team is better, it’s facing arguably the most demanding schedule in the country, including a trip to Alabama and an October slate of: at Michigan, Cockeye, Ohio State and at Oregon.

Mike Locksley: Things were looking up for Maryland two years ago when the Terps posted consecutive 8-5 seasons, but it feels like the program has lost all its momentum. Locksley has not posted a winning record in Big Ten play through six seasons, and his team slunk to 1-8 last season. I fear this year could be as bad or worse.

David Braun: The then-interim coach won the full-time job when he went 8-5 in 2023 with Pat Fitzgerald’s staff. He slid to 4-8 last season. Former SMU QB Preston Stone could lead a resurgence this season, but Braun might feel the heat if not. Northwestern opens an $850 million stadium in 2026 and will want the right guy.