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Baseball chase to Regionals

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Baseball chase to Regionals

Minnesota has moved to a Q2 series. They were Q3 going in to the weekend. Really good news for us and also, Grand Canyon has made a strong push & they're now a Q2 series. It will help if Cockeye moves to Q3 (RPI 51-100 for home games), as they're currently Q4 (RPI 102). There are other moving parts too, which is why we only gained 4 spots in the overall RPI since last Monday.

Following weekend series win over Minnesota
30-16 record
#21 overall RPI
#20 non-conf RPI
#29 SOS
#9 non-conf SOS

*** The above metrics remain super strong ***

Q1 3-3
Q2 10-8
Q3 11-4
Q4 6-1

2-1 v Gophers needed for Regionals, and accomplished.
3-0 v Gophers needed for hosting, and didn't happen.

Week of May 7, 2024
v South Dakota State = 1-0 needed, period.
v Indiana = 2-1 needed for Regionals, 3-0 needed to host

Last Thursday projection
* 7-3 finish & we're in the tournament.
* 9-1 finish & we're likely hosting heading in to the B1G tournament.

Updated
5-2 finish & we're in the tournament.
7-0 finish & we're likely hosting heading in to the B1G tournament (unlikely to go 7-0).

This is all regular season data, B1G tournament hasn't been factored in.
 
Good thing Indiana is a home series, they’ve been strong lately
 
PonyBoy said:
Minnesota has moved to a Q2 series. They were Q3 going in to the weekend. Really good news for us and also, Grand Canyon has made a strong push & they're now a Q2 series. It will help if Cockeye moves to Q3 (RPI 51-100 for home games), as they're currently Q4 (RPI 102). There are other moving parts too, which is why we only gained 4 spots in the overall RPI since last Monday.

Following weekend series win over Minnesota
30-16 record
#21 overall RPI
#20 non-conf RPI
#29 SOS
#9 non-conf SOS

*** The above metrics remain super strong ***

Q1 3-3
Q2 10-8
Q3 11-4
Q4 6-1

2-1 v Gophers needed for Regionals, and accomplished.
3-0 v Gophers needed for hosting, and didn't happen.

Week of May 7, 2024
v South Dakota State = 1-0 needed, period.
v Indiana = 2-1 needed for Regionals, 3-0 needed to host

Last Thursday projection
* 7-3 finish & we're in the tournament.
* 9-1 finish & we're likely hosting heading in to the B1G tournament.

Updated
5-2 finish & we're in the tournament.
7-0 finish & we're likely hosting heading in to the B1G tournament (unlikely to go 7-0).

This is all regular season data, B1G tournament hasn't been factored in.
Click to expand...

Very strong 2 seed is where I think we’ll end up, in my opinion. Which is very good and much better than I thought they’d be this year.

Hopefully we can get hot down the stretch and make some noise in region play.
 
...TrueColors... said:
Very strong 2 seed is where I think we’ll end up, in my opinion. Which is very good and much better than I thought they’d be this year.

Hopefully we can get hot down the stretch and make some noise in region play.
Click to expand...
Same here pleasantly surprised, hope the season is something to build on. If we get hot during regionals, might just see us in a Super.
 
Posted in the baseball season thread as well...

Regional host opportunity is 5%, probably less around 2% unless we run the B1G tournament and make the finals. Haha!

SDSU is our only Q4 loss now that Cockeye is a Q3.

Why did I do the below? Simple; to show 1, and even 2, Q4 losses aren't even close to the end of the world. 12 of the 21 top 30 RPI teams have at least 1 Q4 loss. Our metrics remain strong. Especially our non-conference SOS at #11. And it won't move much, maybe 1 or 2 slots either way, the rest of the year.

Here are the current projected teams behind us in RPI
(2) Nebraska (30 RPI, 1 Q4 loss).
(3) UCF (32 RPI, 2 Q4 losses)
(2) West Virginia (37 RPI, 1 Q4 loss)
(3) Kansas State (38 RPI, 1 Q4 loss)
(3) Southern Miss (41 RPI, 3 Q4 losses)
(3) Louisiana Tech (42 RPI, 1 Q4 loss)
(3) Virginia Tech (43 RPI, 1 Q4 loss)
(2) Oregon (46 RPI, 2 Q4 losses)
(2) Louisiana (48 RPI, 5 Q4 losses)
(3) Georgia Tech (50 RPI, 1 Q4 loss)
(2) Texas (51 RPI, 8 Q4 losses)
(3) St Johns (53 RPI, 3 Q4 losses & 1 tie)
(3) Illinois (56 RPI, 2 Q4 losses)
(3) Utah (70 RPI, 5 Q4 losses)

**UCONN, Illinois & Zona are not included, although their RPI's are lower, as I believe they're projected to win their conference auto bid. 1 bid leagues not included in the above either as it's irrelevant. Not sure about Louisiana so I have them listed as I believe Dallas Baptist is projected to win their auto-bid. Plus, DBU has a better overall RPI than us.
 
I need to see some guys get hot down the stretch. So many times in recent memory we’ve got examples of teams playing great ball at the right times and making runs to the supers or even omaha.

Why not us?
 
PonyBoy said:
Following weekend series win over Minnesota
30-16 record
#21 overall RPI
#20 non-conf RPI
#29 SOS
#9 non-conf SOS

*** The above metrics remain super strong ***

Q1 3-3
Q2 10-8
Q3 11-4
Q4 6-1

2-1 v Gophers needed for Regionals, and accomplished.
3-0 v Gophers needed for hosting, and didn't happen.

Week of May 7, 2024
v South Dakota State = 1-0 needed, period.
v Indiana = 2-1 needed for Regionals, 3-0 needed to host

Last Thursday projection
* 7-3 finish & we're in the tournament.
* 9-1 finish & we're likely hosting heading in to the B1G tournament.

Updated
5-2 finish & we're in the tournament.
7-0 finish & we're likely hosting heading in to the B1G tournament (unlikely to go 7-0).
Click to expand...

Following weekend series win over Indiana
32-18 record
#30 overall RPI
#31 non-conf RPI
#31 SOS
#10 non-conf SOS

Q1 3-3
Q2 10-8
Q3 15-6
Q4 4-1

3 game series v Michigan State (Quad 2 series). WIN. THE. SERIES. Sparty has a 105 RPI and Q2 road is RPI 61-120.

Hosting opportunity is slim to barely none. Sweep Sparty (3-0) and win the B1G tournament, then there's a chance. Our RPI will be back in the top 20-22.
 
Last edited:
...TrueColors... said:
Quality starting pitching on the weekend. Quality outings for a lot of the bullpen.
Click to expand...

The 3 starts we got against Indiana gives us a legit chance of winning a Regional.

The bullpen Friday night gives us a chance to lose to Omaha North.

The bullpen Saturday & Sunday gives us a Regional title appearance.

Rob Childress' in-game pitch calling and adjustments were at the highest level possible this past weekend.
 
That SDSU game completely just completely f'd our host chances, so be it.

I do feel like maybe we've got a 3rd pitcher for the first time all year with Brockett's hot hand.

If you've got 3 pitchers in a regional, you never know. We'll still have an uphill battle because of the bullpen, but when you really look at what was expected this year, being in a regional is a good step.

Last year we lost our entire weekend starters, 2 freaking All-American hitters that combined for almost as many HRs as we've had as a team this year.

There's been some frustrating moments and we still need some serious pitching depth, but it would be hard to argue against this season as a success.
 
PonyBoy said:
After further looking in to it, a sweep of Sparty puts us right back on the bubble.
Click to expand...
Work your magic boltball. Work. your. magic.

Pink Love GIF
 
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