More or less confident in team after Cincinnati?

[nscottie]

I don’t think we controlled the game as much as you think. This suggests we were extremely lucky to win.

This is bs. Ohio State beats Texas 100% of the time with Manning at qb. And KState at 91% is laughable. They were lucky to escape North Dakota

 

[dom91932]

I don’t think we controlled the game as much as you think. This suggests we were extremely lucky to win.

For this week I'll take being lucky to win rather than being the best 3-9/4-8 ever.

 

[BIGSTICK67]

It’s not as bad here as some other boards

We aren’t going to know what kind of team we have until we play Michigan. People need to relax and enjoy a Nebraska win

Then if we beat them, the narrative will change again...probably.

 

[TampaBaySkers]

I don’t think we controlled the game as much as you think. This suggests we were extremely lucky to win.

You have to be borderline retarded to think osu only had a 18% chance to win. Idiotic model that’s obviously broken.

 

[Juro]

I don’t think we controlled the game as much as you think. This suggests we were extremely lucky to win.

There was never a time that seemed like we were playing from behind, or a time that we seemed to panic. To me, that's controlling the game.

A few lucky breaks, yes. Especially that dropped interception and the fumble recovery by Dylan, but luck is luck.

 

[Irv]

So when you looked at our performance on Thursday, but watched other teams this weekend and even last weekend (week 0) of CFB, I'm more confident. Here's why:

• We controlled the game. Yes, their running game and QB scrambled like fuck, but we controlled the game. We took what they gave us and while we should have scored more points, we held a very good offensive team to 17 points.
• Special teams didn't lose us the game. They were good.
• Game management was better. Not great, but a whole lot better than last year.
• For the most part, a clean game. A few bonehead items like false starts and holdings, but all teams had those issues yesterday.

Ultimately, teams on week 1 have a lot more time to get prepared for their first opponent. And Cincinnati came prepared with a good plan. We took what they gave us. We do have some holes to fill like the defensive line and RB depth, but we found that out on game 1 with game 2 and 3 are warm-ups for the season to get those fixed.

I think this all makes sense.

The flip side is the offensive scoring. If you look up and down the scoreboard this weekend, almost nobody won this week by scoring 20 or fewer points. LSU and OSU were notable exceptions, and they were playing elite defenses.

We have just not been able to turn offense into points, even with Holgorsen. We have to get that figured out.

 

[herbsinator]

I don’t think we controlled the game as much as you think. This suggests we were extremely lucky to win.

The SP+ is weighted heavily on yards/play and Cincy outperformed us there admittedly (I think largely due to some of those big plays at the end of the game). But Nebraska had a huge TOP advantage and was way more efficient on 3rd down.

 

[Kazman5k]

After watching the majority of CFB look like shit this weekend I don’t know how you can give this team anything less than “acceptable” after week 1.

 

[Mavsker]

I don’t think we controlled the game as much as you think. This suggests we were extremely lucky to win.

I'm pretty sure ESPN's win probability for Nebraska - the one posted on their matchup page for the game - was > 50% the entire game and never dipped below like 70% on Cincy's final drive. Feels like two models by ESPN saying completely opposite things.

 

[Sous Chef]

Then if we beat them, the narrative will change again...probably.

If we can beat Michigan we are legit playoff contenders. Michigan's roster is no joke.

 

[Jim14510]

Fumbles bounced back to us. God is on our side this year.

 

[Sous Chef]

Fumbles bounced back to us. God is on our side this year.

I could be not remembering right but I think the Cincy player tried to scoop and score and gave Dylan the chance to pull the ball in. If he'd fallen on it I think it would have been a turnover. Again I could be wrong but that's how I remember it.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

I could be not remembering right but I think the Cincy player tried to scoop and score and gave Dylan the chance to pull the ball in. If he'd fallen on it I think it would have been a turnover. Again I could be wrong but that's how I remember it.

Yeah I was flabbergasted Dylan got on it

 

[Jim14510]

I'm pretty sure ESPN's win probability for Nebraska - the one posted on their matchup page for the game - was > 50% the entire game and never dipped below like 70% on Cincy's final drive. Feels like two models by ESPN saying completely opposite things.

I don't think I've ever seen this type of metric where the team leading has less than 50%.

Out gained them 353-271. +2 in turnovers.

Whoever made this formula should probably not do math anymore.

 

[Jim14510]

I could be not remembering right but I think the Cincy player tried to scoop and score and gave Dylan the chance to pull the ball in. If he'd fallen on it I think it would have been a turnover. Again I could be wrong but that's how I remember it.

The cincy player for sure had a chance at it but the ball bounced right to Dylan. Only explanation is that God is allowing us to win the natty.

 

[Baron Winnebago]

The cincy player for sure had a chance at it but the ball bounced right to Dylan. Only explanation is that God is allowing us to win the natty.

If you recorded it on an old school camcorder, you saw the invisible hand of Lawrence Phillips push the ball to Dylan

 

[HuskerGarrett]

If you recorded it on an old school camcorder, you saw the invisible hand of Lawrence Phillips push the ball to Dylan

Our guardian angel

 

[TampaBaySkers]

I don't think I've ever seen this type of metric where the team leading has less than 50%.

Out gained them 353-271. +2 in turnovers.

Whoever made this formula should probably not do math anymore.

@BingoDingo - did you build the model ?

 

[vailhusker]

If you recorded it on an old school camcorder, you saw the invisible hand of Lawrence Phillips push the ball to Dylan

If LP is NU's guardian angel then that explains the whole Frost era.

 

[Jim14510]

If LP is NU's guardian angel then that explains the whole Frost era.

We might just be on to something.