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Just posted this on RSS as well, but thought I would post it here too...
There seems to be a lot of confusion regarding the B1G's protocols, so I am hoping this thread helps clear up some things based on what I have read and how I have understood the rules (so not everything may be accurate and others are welcome to correct me if I am wrong).
The first thing that should be stated is this quote from Scott Frost, "If you want to play, and find ways to play, I think you’ll find ways to play,” Frost said. “If you find ways and reasons to not play, I think you can accomplish that goal, too.”
Next, here are the B1G protocols:
Team positivity rate (number of positive tests divided by total number of tests administered):
Green/Green and Green/Orange: Team continues with normal practice and competition.
Orange/Orange and Orange/Red: Team must proceed with caution and enhance COVID-19 prevention (alter practice and meeting schedule, consider viability of continuing with scheduled competition).
Red/Red: Team must stop regular practice and competition for a minimum of seven days and reassess metrics until improved.
Player who tests positive (and is confirmed by PCR test): Must sit out/isolate 21 days (14 days for quarantine, 7 days for reacclimating - this means they cannot practice for 2 full weeks after testing positive)
Coach who tests positive (and is confirmed by PCR test): Must is sit out/isolate 10 days (CDC recommendation)
Third, I stated this yesterday and it was confirmed in a few other articles I have read since. If a player or staff member tests positive, they no longer have to be tested for 90 days (this is based on information from the CDC where a person could continue to test positive up to 3 months after contracting the virus). What is important, though, is that the CDC also has determined that a person is no longer contagious after 10-14 days from testing positive. This is used in determining when the coaches can return to the team, as well as the length of time the player must quarantine. However, this is where the Scott Frost quote is foreshadowing in this instance, because those players who no longer need to be tested for 90 days can be used to manipulate the numbers if a team would want (both positively or negatively).
Fourth, it is important to know the testing numbers and the rolling averages. Each B1G team can use 170 tests/day, and they are tested 6-7 times/week. That means the maximum number of tests/week is 1020-1190 tests (this is the maximum denominator for the average). Now, those 170 tests can be split however the team likes between the team and the staff, but all players in camp would require to be tested (unless they have previously tested positive - which is important for Nebraska because of our large roster size).
To better understand, let's do a couple scenarios, one with Nebraska and one with Wisconsin.
For Nebraska: we are going to assume that they are using their full 170 tests and being tested 7 days/week, as no players have been trimmed from the roster. However, it has been stated prior that there have been numerous players that have tested positive in the past. For this exercise, we are going to assume the current roster size is 150 and that 50/150 players for Nebraska have tested positive. This means 100 tests would be required to use on players and 70 tests could be used on support staff, or on players who have previously tested positive, but that can be used to manipulate the numbers. This last bolded part is what is really important for the thresholds above. If we know we have 50 players who have had the virus prior, and we know that say 30 of them are no longer testing positive, we can have them tested again to increase our denominator (total number of tests), and decrease the numerator (total number of positives).
So continuing for Nebraska, there would be 130 players being tested and 40 support staff/coaches. In order to reach the thresholds, there would need to be 45/910 positive cases in the players to get to red, or 14/280 positive cases in the support staff/coaches. However, as I stated above, 30 players in this situation are known to have previously had the virus and are testing negative, so you are really only worrying about 100 players, but you are able to manipulate your numbers more favorably by testing them and increasing your denominator. If Nebraska would instead choose to not test those 30 extra players and not use the full 170 tests, then for 100 players, there would need to be 35/700 positive cases. So, as you can see, the more testing allows for more positive cases.
Now for Wisconsin: we are going to assume a roster size of 115 (I think I read it is actually 113). It has also been reported previously that at least 40 players have tested positive since September. That means only 75 players must be tested right now. Again using 7 days of testing, they would need 26/525 positive cases to get into the Red and only 10/525 positive cases to get into the Orange (which it is believed they currently are). Going back again to Scott Frost's quote, if Wisconsin would add those 40 players who previously had the virus (and could be testing negative now), then they would need 40/805 positive cases to reach Red or 16 positive cases to get to Orange. See how easy it is to manipulate the numbers to your advantage in both directions?
It has been reported that 6 of Wisconsin's support staff/coaches have also tested positive. If they are only required to test 75 players, they would, in theory, be able to test 95 support staff/coaches. If they did that, then they would need 49/665 positive cases to reach the Red for the population positivity rate. However, if they are only testing something like 20 support staff/coaches, then they would need only 10/140 positive cases. So even then, they should in a full rolling week only be in the orange. This is because they may currently have 6 positive cases in 3-4 days, but those who tested positive will not be tested again and so the denominator will continue to grow, but the numerator will only grow if there are more positive cases - so more than likely the average will continue to drop).
Based on those scenarios with Wisconsin, and from what has been reported, it is more likely that Wisconsin is in the Orange/Orange category.
Orange/Orange and Orange/Red: Team must proceed with caution and enhance COVID-19 prevention (alter practice and meeting schedule, consider viability of continuing with scheduled competition).
So, it seems that they decided to "consider viability of continuing with scheduled competition", and ultimately decided against it. They actually decided to stop all activities for 1 week. This means there will be no team activities until at least next Tuesday. Furthermore, Chryst, if he PCR tested positive on Tuesday, he would be back by next Friday, and thus in theory could coach next Saturday. Mertz and the other players who PCR tested positive, depending on the date they determine the positive to have happened (but most likely on Saturday), would in theory be back by November 7 (for Michigan). Regardless of those who did test positive, the rest of the team can continue to function normally once practice is opened up next Tuesday/Wednesday. This means that their game next weekend can be played, if:
1. They reassess their situation and determine things are more under control (i.e. their positivity rates are back to acceptable ranges)
2. They feel they can properly prepare for a game with only 3-4 days of practice.
Sorry for the very very long read, but I am hoping this can help clarify some of the confusion with the current protocols.
TL,DR: The B1G protocols are not actually that stringent and can be easily manipulated to benefit a team - either for cancelling or for playing. In the case of Wisconsin, it appears they chose not to want to play this weekend.
There seems to be a lot of confusion regarding the B1G's protocols, so I am hoping this thread helps clear up some things based on what I have read and how I have understood the rules (so not everything may be accurate and others are welcome to correct me if I am wrong).
The first thing that should be stated is this quote from Scott Frost, "If you want to play, and find ways to play, I think you’ll find ways to play,” Frost said. “If you find ways and reasons to not play, I think you can accomplish that goal, too.”
Next, here are the B1G protocols:
Team positivity rate (number of positive tests divided by total number of tests administered):
- Green 0-2%
- Orange 2-5%
- Red >5%
- Green 0-3.5%
- Orange 3.5-7.5%
- Red >7.5%
Green/Green and Green/Orange: Team continues with normal practice and competition.
Orange/Orange and Orange/Red: Team must proceed with caution and enhance COVID-19 prevention (alter practice and meeting schedule, consider viability of continuing with scheduled competition).
Red/Red: Team must stop regular practice and competition for a minimum of seven days and reassess metrics until improved.
Player who tests positive (and is confirmed by PCR test): Must sit out/isolate 21 days (14 days for quarantine, 7 days for reacclimating - this means they cannot practice for 2 full weeks after testing positive)
Coach who tests positive (and is confirmed by PCR test): Must is sit out/isolate 10 days (CDC recommendation)
Third, I stated this yesterday and it was confirmed in a few other articles I have read since. If a player or staff member tests positive, they no longer have to be tested for 90 days (this is based on information from the CDC where a person could continue to test positive up to 3 months after contracting the virus). What is important, though, is that the CDC also has determined that a person is no longer contagious after 10-14 days from testing positive. This is used in determining when the coaches can return to the team, as well as the length of time the player must quarantine. However, this is where the Scott Frost quote is foreshadowing in this instance, because those players who no longer need to be tested for 90 days can be used to manipulate the numbers if a team would want (both positively or negatively).
Fourth, it is important to know the testing numbers and the rolling averages. Each B1G team can use 170 tests/day, and they are tested 6-7 times/week. That means the maximum number of tests/week is 1020-1190 tests (this is the maximum denominator for the average). Now, those 170 tests can be split however the team likes between the team and the staff, but all players in camp would require to be tested (unless they have previously tested positive - which is important for Nebraska because of our large roster size).
To better understand, let's do a couple scenarios, one with Nebraska and one with Wisconsin.
For Nebraska: we are going to assume that they are using their full 170 tests and being tested 7 days/week, as no players have been trimmed from the roster. However, it has been stated prior that there have been numerous players that have tested positive in the past. For this exercise, we are going to assume the current roster size is 150 and that 50/150 players for Nebraska have tested positive. This means 100 tests would be required to use on players and 70 tests could be used on support staff, or on players who have previously tested positive, but that can be used to manipulate the numbers. This last bolded part is what is really important for the thresholds above. If we know we have 50 players who have had the virus prior, and we know that say 30 of them are no longer testing positive, we can have them tested again to increase our denominator (total number of tests), and decrease the numerator (total number of positives).
So continuing for Nebraska, there would be 130 players being tested and 40 support staff/coaches. In order to reach the thresholds, there would need to be 45/910 positive cases in the players to get to red, or 14/280 positive cases in the support staff/coaches. However, as I stated above, 30 players in this situation are known to have previously had the virus and are testing negative, so you are really only worrying about 100 players, but you are able to manipulate your numbers more favorably by testing them and increasing your denominator. If Nebraska would instead choose to not test those 30 extra players and not use the full 170 tests, then for 100 players, there would need to be 35/700 positive cases. So, as you can see, the more testing allows for more positive cases.
Now for Wisconsin: we are going to assume a roster size of 115 (I think I read it is actually 113). It has also been reported previously that at least 40 players have tested positive since September. That means only 75 players must be tested right now. Again using 7 days of testing, they would need 26/525 positive cases to get into the Red and only 10/525 positive cases to get into the Orange (which it is believed they currently are). Going back again to Scott Frost's quote, if Wisconsin would add those 40 players who previously had the virus (and could be testing negative now), then they would need 40/805 positive cases to reach Red or 16 positive cases to get to Orange. See how easy it is to manipulate the numbers to your advantage in both directions?
It has been reported that 6 of Wisconsin's support staff/coaches have also tested positive. If they are only required to test 75 players, they would, in theory, be able to test 95 support staff/coaches. If they did that, then they would need 49/665 positive cases to reach the Red for the population positivity rate. However, if they are only testing something like 20 support staff/coaches, then they would need only 10/140 positive cases. So even then, they should in a full rolling week only be in the orange. This is because they may currently have 6 positive cases in 3-4 days, but those who tested positive will not be tested again and so the denominator will continue to grow, but the numerator will only grow if there are more positive cases - so more than likely the average will continue to drop).
Based on those scenarios with Wisconsin, and from what has been reported, it is more likely that Wisconsin is in the Orange/Orange category.
Orange/Orange and Orange/Red: Team must proceed with caution and enhance COVID-19 prevention (alter practice and meeting schedule, consider viability of continuing with scheduled competition).
So, it seems that they decided to "consider viability of continuing with scheduled competition", and ultimately decided against it. They actually decided to stop all activities for 1 week. This means there will be no team activities until at least next Tuesday. Furthermore, Chryst, if he PCR tested positive on Tuesday, he would be back by next Friday, and thus in theory could coach next Saturday. Mertz and the other players who PCR tested positive, depending on the date they determine the positive to have happened (but most likely on Saturday), would in theory be back by November 7 (for Michigan). Regardless of those who did test positive, the rest of the team can continue to function normally once practice is opened up next Tuesday/Wednesday. This means that their game next weekend can be played, if:
1. They reassess their situation and determine things are more under control (i.e. their positivity rates are back to acceptable ranges)
2. They feel they can properly prepare for a game with only 3-4 days of practice.
Sorry for the very very long read, but I am hoping this can help clarify some of the confusion with the current protocols.
TL,DR: The B1G protocols are not actually that stringent and can be easily manipulated to benefit a team - either for cancelling or for playing. In the case of Wisconsin, it appears they chose not to want to play this weekend.
