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*** Selection Sunday 2026 *** | Nebrasketball: Quad breakdown + odds to dance ** Updated 2/16/26 **

Schedule detail

Apr 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM
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  1. Seaofred92 Seaofred92
PonyBoy

PonyBoy

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Screenshots for this update...

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- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance
***** - 21 wins and we're dancing *****
***** - 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed *****

Results as of 2/16/26 results (22-3, 11-3)

This week we went 1-1; Q1 loss to Purdue & Q3 win against NW. Currently #11 in NET (same as last week).

Quad records & remaining games...

1.png

2.png


This week we went 1-0; Q3 win at Rutgers. Currently #11 in NET (down 1 spot)...

Net positive - Win at Rutgers keeps us unbeaten in Q2, Q3 & Q4
Net negative - Northwestern dropped to a Q2 (which they've been for a few weeks except for last week) & our next game against them (at PBA) dropped to a Q3.

Q1 = 5-2; (L) at Michigan, at Illinois, (L) Illinois, Michigan State, at Indiana, at Ohio State, ntrl New Mexico
Q2 = 6-0; Wisconsin, Washington, ntrl Oklahoma, at Northwestern, at Minnesota, ntrl Kansas State
Q3 = 4-0; Pickle Smoochers (Q2 last week), Oregon, Winthrop, at Rutgers
Q4 = 6-0; FIU, USC Upstate, North Dakota, West Georgia, UMES, New Hampshire
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games (weekly Quad change in red)
Feb - Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q3), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)
1 quad change with future opponents this week; Northwestern in Lincoln moved to a Q3 game
 
Last edited:
PonyBoy said:
We are 9-0 right now...

- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance
- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed

12/8/25 results
Q1 = 0-0
Q2 = 3-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; crayton, Winthrop
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games
Dec - Wisconsin (Q2), @ Illinois (Q1), North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q1), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q2), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)

January is absolutely brutal with 5 road games and 4 of them Q1's.

We need 12 wins, between now & the last regular season game. Let the countdown begin...

(Yes, I'll eventually do a breakdown in groups of 4 games, like the last 2 seasons).
Click to expand...
Here's how I see it...

Must-win games:
12/21 - North Dakota
12/30 - New Hampshire
1/13 - Oregon
1/21 - Washington
2/14 - Northwestern
2/21 - Penn St
2/25 - Maryland
3/8 - Cockeye

Coin-flip games:
12/10 - Wisconsin
1/17 - @Northwestern
1/24 - @Minnesota
2/7 - @Rutgers

Games to steal:
12/13 - @Illinois
1/2 - Michigan St
1/5 - @Ohio St
1/10 - @Indiana
2/1 - Illinois
2/10 - Purdue
2/17 - @Cockeye
2/28 - @USC
3/3 - @UCLA

Only game not included is @Michigan. I just don't see that as a winnable game with as tough as they have looked and it being on the road.

We need to win all of our must-wins, spit out coin-flips and steal two games.
 
Last edited:
Lionsfan93 said:
Here's how I see it...

Must-win games:
12/21 - North Dakota
12/30 - New Hampshire
1/13 - Oregon
1/21 - Washington
2/14 - Northwestern
2/21 - Penn St
2/25 - Maryland
3/8 - Cockeye

Coin-flip games:
12/10 - Wisconsin
1/17 - @Northwestern
1/24 - @Minnesota
2/7 - @Rutgers

Games to steal:
1/2 - Michigan St
1/5 - @Ohio St
1/10 - @Indiana
2/1 - Illinois
2/10 - Purdue
2/17 - @Cockeye
2/28 - @USC
3/3 - @UCLA

Only game not included is @Michigan. I just don't see that as a winnable game with as tough as they have looked and it being on the road.

We need to win all of our must-wins, spit out coin-flips and steal two games.
Click to expand...
honestly I don’t see a loss on that schedule
 
Lionsfan93 said:
Here's how I see it...

Must-win games:
12/21 - North Dakota
12/30 - New Hampshire
1/13 - Oregon
1/21 - Washington
2/14 - Northwestern
2/21 - Penn St
2/25 - Maryland
3/8 - Cockeye

Coin-flip games:
12/10 - Wisconsin
1/17 - @Northwestern
1/24 - @Minnesota
2/7 - @Rutgers

Games to steal:
1/2 - Michigan St
1/5 - @Ohio St
1/10 - @Indiana
2/1 - Illinois
2/10 - Purdue
2/17 - @Cockeye
2/28 - @USC
3/3 - @UCLA

Only game not included is @Michigan. I just don't see that as a winnable game with as tough as they have looked and it being on the road.

We need to win all of our must-wins, spit out coin-flips and steal two games.
Click to expand...
@illinois this Saturday isn’t on your list either. Gonna be a tough week for sure.
 
For reference purposes. Last time we made the dance...

2023-2024
Q1 = 3-8
Q2 = 4-3
Q3 = 7-0
Q4 = 7-0
B1G tournament + dance aren't included

19-1 at home, only loss to sweater vests. 2-8 Q1 & Q2 record on the road in B1G play.

The 2 neutral site wins over KSU & OU will be pivotal for us, likely Q2 wins, which trump our solo Q1 non-conf (KSU) road win in 2023-2024. And the queers from Omaha is icing on the cake if they end up a Q2 win.

Just keep all of this in mind when things get rocky...
 
PonyBoy said:
For reference purposes. Last time we made the dance...

2023-2024
Q1 = 3-8
Q2 = 4-3
Q3 = 7-0
Q4 = 7-0
B1G tournament + dance aren't included

19-1 at home, only loss to sweater vests. 2-8 Q1 & Q2 record on the road in B1G play.

The 2 neutral site wins over KSU & OU will be pivotal for us, likely Q2 wins, which trump our solo Q1 non-conf (KSU) road win in 2023-2024. And the queers from Omaha is icing on the cake if they end up a Q2 win.

Just keep all of this in mind when things get rocky...
Click to expand...
Confused Help Me GIF by StickerGiant

But in all seriousness hopefully they avoid a long skid this season and don't give back the good positioning they've got right now to really get in safely
 
Lionsfan93 said:
Here's how I see it...

Must-win games:
12/21 - North Dakota
12/30 - New Hampshire
1/13 - Oregon
1/21 - Washington
2/14 - Northwestern
2/21 - Penn St
2/25 - Maryland
3/8 - Cockeye

Coin-flip games:
12/10 - Wisconsin
1/17 - @Northwestern
1/24 - @Minnesota
2/7 - @Rutgers

Games to steal:
12/13 - @Illinois
1/2 - Michigan St
1/5 - @Ohio St
1/10 - @Indiana
2/1 - Illinois
2/10 - Purdue
2/17 - @Cockeye
2/28 - @USC
3/3 - @UCLA

Only game not included is @Michigan. I just don't see that as a winnable game with as tough as they have looked and it being on the road.

We need to win all of our must-wins, spit out coin-flips and steal two games.
Click to expand...
Gotta hope Pinnacle has some magic this year.
 
PonyBoy said:
We are 9-0 right now...

- 19 wins gives us a chance, a slim one, at dancing
- 20 wins is the bare minimum number we have to reach to have a 50/50 chance
- 21 wins and we're dancing
- 22 wins or more and it's all about improving our seed

12/8/25 results
Q1 = 0-0
Q2 = 3-0; Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas State
Q3 = 2-0; crayton, Winthrop
Q4 = 4-0; West Georgia, FIU, UMES, USC Upstate
Quad wins/losses will change throughout the entire season & I will update them at the end of each week (Sunday evening or Monday morning)

Remaining games
Dec - Wisconsin (Q2), @ Illinois (Q1), North Dakota (Q4), New Hampshire (Q4)
Jan - Michigan State (Q1), @ Ohio State (Q1), @ Indiana (Q1), Oregon (Q4), @ Northwestern (Q1), Washington (Q2), @ Minnesota (Q2), @ Michigan (Q1)
Feb - Illinois (Q1), @ Rutgers (Q3), Purdue (Q1), Northwestern (Q2), @ Ioa (Q1), Penn State (Q3), Maryland (Q4), @ USC (Q1)
Mar - @ UCLA (Q1), Ioa (Q1)

January is absolutely brutal with 5 road games and 4 of them Q1's.

We need 12 wins, between now & the last regular season game. Let the countdown begin...

(Yes, I'll eventually do a breakdown in groups of 4 games, like the last 2 seasons).
Click to expand...
Well done OP, look forward to these every year...
 
Lionsfan93 said:
Here's how I see it...

Must-win games:
12/21 - North Dakota
12/30 - New Hampshire
1/13 - Oregon
1/21 - Washington
2/14 - Northwestern
2/21 - Penn St
2/25 - Maryland
3/8 - Cockeye

Coin-flip games:
12/10 - Wisconsin
1/17 - @Northwestern
1/24 - @Minnesota
2/7 - @Rutgers

Games to steal:
12/13 - @Illinois
1/2 - Michigan St
1/5 - @Ohio St
1/10 - @Indiana
2/1 - Illinois
2/10 - Purdue
2/17 - @Cockeye
2/28 - @USC
3/3 - @UCLA

Only game not included is @Michigan. I just don't see that as a winnable game with as tough as they have looked and it being on the road.

We need to win all of our must-wins, spit out coin-flips and steal two games.
Click to expand...

I think both Oklahoma and New Mexico games will both move into the Quad 1 category. Both teams are playing tough non-cons and have fortuitous conference schedules.


K-State though is a defensive dumpster fire, and I think they are going to continue to get shredded the rest of the season.
 
Cornicator said:
Getting killed by injuries. It would be like losing Rienk Mast, Jamarques Lawerence, and Keisei Tominaga and then replacing them with Rollie Worster, Braxton Meah, and Gavin Griffiths.
Click to expand...
That makes more sense.
 
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