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In 2023, there were 42 Power 5 programs that finished with 7 wins or more. 31 of those 42 programs finished the season with an offense that tossed at least 20 TD passes and a defense that finished in the top 80 of total defense. These are those programs:
Florida State
Louisville
NC State
Virginia Tech
Clemson
Duke
Miami
Cockeye State
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Texas
K-State
West Virginia
Kansas
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Maryland
Northwestern - Yes, Northwestern
Bama
Georgia
Mizzou
Ole Miss
Tennessee
A&M
Kentucky
Oregon
Arizona
Oregon State
UCLA
Notre Dame
There are 5 other teams that won at least 7 games and finished with 20+ TD passes, but those teams had very pedestrian or even bad defenses:
USC - 3rd in scoring offense
Washington - 13th in scoring offense
LSU - 1st in scoring offense
Georgia Tech - Led the ACC in TD passes and 2nd in Rushing TDs
North Carolina - 20th in scoring offense, led the ACC in Rushing TDs
Those 5 teams played very porous defense, but their offenses were so potent that they were able to win quite a few shootouts.
There are also 5 outlier teams that won 7 or more games with a top 80 defense, but failed to throw at least 20 TD passes:
Cockeye - finished top 10 in all defensive categories
Wisconsin - finished top 30 in rushing TDs - had a top 40 defense
Rutgers - finished top 20 in all defensive categories and top 20 in rushing TDs
Boston College - finished top 15 nationally in rushing and in top 20 in rushing TDs
Utah - led the Pac 12 in rushing and top 20 in all defensive categories
And then there is the luckiest team in college football:
Oklahoma State - the 2023 Cowboys were the outliers of outliers. They were one of the luckiest teams in college football history. If there was a team that was virtually the same as Nebraska in 2021, but the polar opposite on the scoreboard and in final record, it was Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had a terrible defense, bottom 20 in the country, but they did something last year that almost seems foreign to any Nebraska fan: The gained 23 Turnovers. There were only 5 Power 5 teams in the country that gained more turnovers. 17 of those 23 turnovers were recovered inside their opponents 30 yard line! That helped them rack up 29 rushing TDs. So even though they had 18 passing TDs, which was under the 20 threshold, they still were able to score a lot of points helping them get to that 10 win mark.
Due to full transparency of this data, its important to highlight the 3 programs in the country that didn't reach a winning record but finished the year with both 20+ TDs passes and a top 80 defense:
Illinois - The Illini had 23 TDs passes and were a top 70 defense. But the Illini are also a team that wants to run the football and they were only able to average a paltry 3.83 yards per carry. Their 12 rushing TDs was bottom 5 among all Power 5 teams.
Arkansas - The Hogs actually had a pretty good defense, and they were very efficient scoring touchdowns thru the air with 20 TDs despite being a run first team. But that's the problem. Arkansas ran the ball 65% of the time and could only muster a terrible 3.35 yards per carry average. Their 9 total rushing TDs was 3rd worst in the Power 5.
Florida - It should be noted that Florida finished 70th in total defense. So they barely even hit the threshold. The Gaytors had a decent offense, but they had the 2nd worst rush defense in the SEC and their yards allowed per pass attempt was bottom 5 in the Power 5.
When I started pulling this data, I really wanted to know how winning success correlates with any Power 5 football team that throws 20 TDs or more in a season. For Nebraska football specifically, since the program shifted from the option in 2004, the Huskers have finished with 20 or more TD passes 9 times. 7 of those 9 teams went to bowl games. The two teams that didn't go to a bowl, 2007 and 2017, had literally the two worst defenses in Nebraska football history.
So just for the record, I decided to pull the other Power 5 teams that did throw for more than 20TDs in 2023, along with their defensive numbers:
Colorado - 127th in total defense
Washington State - 87th in total defense
TCU - 100th in total defense
South Carolina - 81st
Houston - 112th
Vanderbilt - 128th
Cal - 102
Lastly, there were 9 programs that finished with at least 20 TDs passes and a top 15 defense in 2023. Of those 9 teams, only Clemson and UCLA failed to win at least 10 games.
There seems to be enough precedence in place to suggest that if the Huskers can bump their TD passes to 20 or more and continue to play quality, even elite defense, they shouldn't have any trouble breaking out of this bowless funk that has plagued a once great program.
I know run the damn ball guy doesn't enjoy this post, but I would argue Nebraska will have even more success running the ball if they can just muster the God Damn forward pass.
Florida State
Louisville
NC State
Virginia Tech
Clemson
Duke
Miami
Cockeye State
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Texas
K-State
West Virginia
Kansas
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Maryland
Northwestern - Yes, Northwestern
Bama
Georgia
Mizzou
Ole Miss
Tennessee
A&M
Kentucky
Oregon
Arizona
Oregon State
UCLA
Notre Dame
There are 5 other teams that won at least 7 games and finished with 20+ TD passes, but those teams had very pedestrian or even bad defenses:
USC - 3rd in scoring offense
Washington - 13th in scoring offense
LSU - 1st in scoring offense
Georgia Tech - Led the ACC in TD passes and 2nd in Rushing TDs
North Carolina - 20th in scoring offense, led the ACC in Rushing TDs
Those 5 teams played very porous defense, but their offenses were so potent that they were able to win quite a few shootouts.
There are also 5 outlier teams that won 7 or more games with a top 80 defense, but failed to throw at least 20 TD passes:
Cockeye - finished top 10 in all defensive categories
Wisconsin - finished top 30 in rushing TDs - had a top 40 defense
Rutgers - finished top 20 in all defensive categories and top 20 in rushing TDs
Boston College - finished top 15 nationally in rushing and in top 20 in rushing TDs
Utah - led the Pac 12 in rushing and top 20 in all defensive categories
And then there is the luckiest team in college football:
Oklahoma State - the 2023 Cowboys were the outliers of outliers. They were one of the luckiest teams in college football history. If there was a team that was virtually the same as Nebraska in 2021, but the polar opposite on the scoreboard and in final record, it was Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had a terrible defense, bottom 20 in the country, but they did something last year that almost seems foreign to any Nebraska fan: The gained 23 Turnovers. There were only 5 Power 5 teams in the country that gained more turnovers. 17 of those 23 turnovers were recovered inside their opponents 30 yard line! That helped them rack up 29 rushing TDs. So even though they had 18 passing TDs, which was under the 20 threshold, they still were able to score a lot of points helping them get to that 10 win mark.
Due to full transparency of this data, its important to highlight the 3 programs in the country that didn't reach a winning record but finished the year with both 20+ TDs passes and a top 80 defense:
Illinois - The Illini had 23 TDs passes and were a top 70 defense. But the Illini are also a team that wants to run the football and they were only able to average a paltry 3.83 yards per carry. Their 12 rushing TDs was bottom 5 among all Power 5 teams.
Arkansas - The Hogs actually had a pretty good defense, and they were very efficient scoring touchdowns thru the air with 20 TDs despite being a run first team. But that's the problem. Arkansas ran the ball 65% of the time and could only muster a terrible 3.35 yards per carry average. Their 9 total rushing TDs was 3rd worst in the Power 5.
Florida - It should be noted that Florida finished 70th in total defense. So they barely even hit the threshold. The Gaytors had a decent offense, but they had the 2nd worst rush defense in the SEC and their yards allowed per pass attempt was bottom 5 in the Power 5.
When I started pulling this data, I really wanted to know how winning success correlates with any Power 5 football team that throws 20 TDs or more in a season. For Nebraska football specifically, since the program shifted from the option in 2004, the Huskers have finished with 20 or more TD passes 9 times. 7 of those 9 teams went to bowl games. The two teams that didn't go to a bowl, 2007 and 2017, had literally the two worst defenses in Nebraska football history.
So just for the record, I decided to pull the other Power 5 teams that did throw for more than 20TDs in 2023, along with their defensive numbers:
Colorado - 127th in total defense
Washington State - 87th in total defense
TCU - 100th in total defense
South Carolina - 81st
Houston - 112th
Vanderbilt - 128th
Cal - 102
Lastly, there were 9 programs that finished with at least 20 TDs passes and a top 15 defense in 2023. Of those 9 teams, only Clemson and UCLA failed to win at least 10 games.
There seems to be enough precedence in place to suggest that if the Huskers can bump their TD passes to 20 or more and continue to play quality, even elite defense, they shouldn't have any trouble breaking out of this bowless funk that has plagued a once great program.
I know run the damn ball guy doesn't enjoy this post, but I would argue Nebraska will have even more success running the ball if they can just muster the God Damn forward pass.
