OT - Car Prices

[kenyanfeline]

Economic experts and nonexperts:

I am wanting to buy a used truck as my second vehicle. My old shitbox I use around the acreage is on its last leg and I need something to fill it’s void. Nothing fancy, just a 2005-2010 half ton that I can use to get some work done and take an occasional trip into town with,

The problem I am running into is that used car prices are through the roof right now. What I think would have been a $7,000 truck two years ago is going for $11,000 as soon as it hits the lot. It’s a lot like the housing and lumber situation.

My question is this: If I buy a truck now, will I look back in 6 months and realize I threw away $3,000 when prices come back to earth, or are the high prices here to stay?

Also, if you think the bubble will burst and prices will come down, when do you think that will happen and by how much? And will lumber and housing follow a similar path?

 

[Adolph Coors]

if you care about 3,000 then you cant afford the pickup as a second vehicle.

 

[#HBD]

Economic experts and nonexperts:

I am wanting to buy a used truck as my second vehicle. My old shitbox I use around the acreage is on its last leg and I need something to fill it’s void. Nothing fancy, just a 2005-2010 half ton that I can use to get some work done and take an occasional trip into town with,

The problem I am running into is that used car prices are through the roof right now. What I think would have been a $7,000 truck two years ago is going for $11,000 as soon as it hits the lot. It’s a lot like the housing and lumber situation.

My question is this: If I buy a truck now, will I look back in 6 months and realize I threw away $3,000 when prices come back to earth, or are the high prices here to stay?

Also, if you think the bubble will burst and prices will come down, when do you think that will happen and by how much? And will lumber and housing follow a similar path?

I’m no expert on used trucks, but a simple search on Cars.com for Chevy trucks(insert your brand of choice) from 2005-2010 brought back 24 of them under $8,000 within 500 miles of me. I’m not sure what you’re looking at, but it seems like there’s a wide selection in your price range. Don’t limit yourself to your local “lot” when purchasing a vehicle, it’s 2021. Good luck amigo.

https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchresults.action/?mdId=20277%2C20377%2C26902%2C20451%2C20856%2C21775%2C22061%2C36410838%2C22128%2C22070&mkId=20053&page=1&perPage=20&prMx=8000&rd=500&searchSource=GN_SELECT&sort=relevance&yrId=20199%2C20144%2C20200%2C20145%2C20201%2C27381&zc=75230

 

[kenyanfeline]

if you care about 3,000 then you cant afford the pickup as a second vehicle.

Or I would like to save $3,000, which I will compound with other sound financial decisions, so that someday when I’m older, I truly won’t give a shit about $3,000.

 

[kenyanfeline]

I’m no expert on used trucks, but a simple search on Cars.com for Chevy trucks(insert your brand of choice) from 2005-2010 brought back 24 of them under $8,000 within 500 miles of me. I’m not sure what you’re looking at, but it seems like there’s a wide selection in your price range. Don’t limit yourself to your local “lot” when purchasing a vehicle, it’s 2021. Good luck amigo.

https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchresults.action/?mdId=20277%2C20377%2C26902%2C20451%2C20856%2C21775%2C22061%2C36410838%2C22128%2C22070&mkId=20053&page=1&perPage=20&prMx=8000&rd=500&searchSource=GN_SELECT&sort=relevance&yrId=20199%2C20144%2C20200%2C20145%2C20201%2C27381&zc=75230

Oh I know there’s some for sale, but I’m just asking peoples opinions on if it’s best to wait a few months for the bubble to burst, or if we see this inflation for several more years.

 

[#HBD]

Oh I know there’s some for sale, but I’m just asking peoples opinions on if it’s best to wait a few months for the bubble to burst, or if we see this inflation for several more years.

Plenty of cars out there to be had, you’re not paying $3K over what it was 6 months ago on a $7-10K vehicle unless you’re buying from Jim Bob(not bashing him, he has to make a living and some people will bite) in McCook. Maybe a few hundred bucks. I’m sure your local “lot” is trying to make up what they’ve lost over the pat 15 months, but it’s a national market now so don’t limit your search.

 

[alt f4]

Plenty of cars out there to be had, you’re not paying $3K over what it was 6 months ago on a $7-10K vehicle unless you’re buying from Jim Bob(not bashing him, he has to make a living and some people will bite) in McCook. Maybe a few hundred bucks. I’m sure your local “lot” is trying to make up what they’ve lost over the pat 15 months, but it’s a national market now so don’t limit your search.

This isn't true at all. There is a major nationwide shortage in both New and Used, especially New. The dealers in Lincoln, Omaha, KC, New York, VA, AZ are all feeling it. Not just in inventory but what they have to aquire it for.

This will get way worse over the next year and create this huge pricing bubble and lots of people are going to have negative equity on their purchase.

Major groups like Carvana, CarMax, Penske, and AutoNation have been paying upwards of $3k to $4k over book on certain late model vehicles. Rental companies didn't feel like holding inventory during covid so they dumped their inventory last year. Auctions are dry of inventory. Dealers don't have new car inventory so there's no way of getting used for the lot. They're purchasing outright from private party but people are holding out for that $2k+ over trade.

New vehicle inventory levels and prices have to stabilize first then used will follow. But we're talking mid to late 2022.

Source, I work in dealership industry.

 

[LoudHogRider]

Economic experts and nonexperts:

I am wanting to buy a used truck as my second vehicle. My old shitbox I use around the acreage is on its last leg and I need something to fill it’s void. Nothing fancy, just a 2005-2010 half ton that I can use to get some work done and take an occasional trip into town with,

The problem I am running into is that used car prices are through the roof right now. What I think would have been a $7,000 truck two years ago is going for $11,000 as soon as it hits the lot. It’s a lot like the housing and lumber situation.

My question is this: If I buy a truck now, will I look back in 6 months and realize I threw away $3,000 when prices come back to earth, or are the high prices here to stay?

Also, if you think the bubble will burst and prices will come down, when do you think that will happen and by how much? And will lumber and housing follow a similar path?

Lumber will definitely be coming back down (IMO). I've got a family member whose uncle made a fortune in the lumber business. His guidance was that lumber was set to crash as there are roughly 80,000 loads of lumber (truck & train car) north of the border in Canada awaiting clearance to enter the US market. They didn't stop harvesting and processing trees up north; we just stopped commerce at the border for a long time due to the 'Rona.

 

[#HBD]

This isn't true at all. There is a major nationwide shortage in both New and Used, especially New. The dealers in Lincoln, Omaha, KC, New York, VA, AZ are all feeling it. Not just in inventory but what they have to aquire it for.

This will get way worse over the next year and create this huge pricing bubble and lots of people are going to have negative equity on their purchase.

Major groups like Carvana, CarMax, Penske, and AutoNation have been paying upwards of $3k to $4k over book on certain late model vehicles. Rental companies didn't feel like holding inventory during covid so they dumped their inventory last year. Auctions are dry of inventory. Dealers don't have new car inventory so there's no way of getting used for the lot. They're purchasing outright from private party but people are holding out for that $2k+ over trade.

New vehicle inventory levels and prices have to stabilize first then used will follow. But we're talking mid to late 2022.

Source, I work in dealership industry.

Bruh, you know I respect the living fuck out of your opinion. 2005-2010 1/2 ton pickups in the $7-10K range ARE NOT $3K overpriced right now. Maybe a few hundred bucks higher. Now Jim Bob in McCook may be jacking prices up more, but nationally they aren’t inflated that much on a 10-15 year old work truck. 🤷🏼‍♂️

 

[kenyanfeline]

Bruh, you know I respect the living fuck out of your opinion. 2005-2010 1/2 ton pickups in the $7-10K range ARE NOT $3K overpriced right now. Maybe a few hundred bucks higher. Now Jim Bob in McCook may be jacking prices up more, but nationally they aren’t inflated that much on a 10-15 year old work truck. 🤷🏼‍♂️

A used car dealer out here told me he has to offer 20% higher + on trades and auction prices to stay competitive with the big dogs so he has to sell them for for 20% higher to cover. His lot is 1/4 full as a result. And this guy is a family friend, not some guy blowing smoke.

 

[kenyanfeline]

Than

This isn't true at all. There is a major nationwide shortage in both New and Used, especially New. The dealers in Lincoln, Omaha, KC, New York, VA, AZ are all feeling it. Not just in inventory but what they have to aquire it for.

This will get way worse over the next year and create this huge pricing bubble and lots of people are going to have negative equity on their purchase.

Major groups like Carvana, CarMax, Penske, and AutoNation have been paying upwards of $3k to $4k over book on certain late model vehicles. Rental companies didn't feel like holding inventory during covid so they dumped their inventory last year. Auctions are dry of inventory. Dealers don't have new car inventory so there's no way of getting used for the lot. They're purchasing outright from private party but people are holding out for that $2k+ over trade.

New vehicle inventory levels and prices have to stabilize first then used will follow. But we're talking mid to late 2022.

Source, I work in dealership industry.

Thanks for the reply. I’m curious why it’s going to take till mid to late 2022? A cycle we’ve seen in the past or just what you’ve been hearing?

 

[#HBD]

A used car dealer out here told me he has to offer 20% higher + on trades and auction prices to stay competitive with the big dogs so he has to sell them for for 20% higher to cover. His lot is 1/4 full as a result. And this guy is a family friend, not some guy blowing smoke.

That’s what I’m saying... with small timers that may be the case. It’s a national market now and in that national market, things haven’t gone up that much on 10-15 year old vehicles. 🤷🏼‍♂️

 

[HuskerGarrett]

Yeah it’s crazy right now. I’ve considered selling my truck only because I could get more than what I paid for it.

 

[Cash68847]

Economic experts and nonexperts:

I am wanting to buy a used truck as my second vehicle. My old shitbox I use around the acreage is on its last leg and I need something to fill it’s void. Nothing fancy, just a 2005-2010 half ton that I can use to get some work done and take an occasional trip into town with,

The problem I am running into is that used car prices are through the roof right now. What I think would have been a $7,000 truck two years ago is going for $11,000 as soon as it hits the lot. It’s a lot like the housing and lumber situation.

My question is this: If I buy a truck now, will I look back in 6 months and realize I threw away $3,000 when prices come back to earth, or are the high prices here to stay?

Also, if you think the bubble will burst and prices will come down, when do you think that will happen and by how much? And will lumber and housing follow a similar path?

How many miles and what brand are you talking? I’ll look at the manheim auction site and tell you what they are going for.

 

[alt f4]

Than

Thanks for the reply. I’m curious why it’s going to take till mid to late 2022? A cycle we’ve seen in the past or just what you’ve been hearing?

What the higher ups at manufacturers (Ford/GM/CDJR) and dealers are saying.

The cycle we will see is an extreme storage of new, which were entering. That in turn will see used car prices inflate and used car volume decrease because there is no new inventory, only what's left of used. Once new gets its chips they'll slowly install but there are shipping shortages slowing up release of new inventory to dealers.

They're talking late Q3 to Q4 before new inventory begins to steadily become available to dealers. With that most are expected be to sold right away because people are waiting for that time, there are a lot of holdouts waiting. That will then mini cycle over and over until new inventory levels can become "normal". That was last expected to be Q3 to Q4 2022.

With all that new inventory shortage dealers are losing about 40% to 60% of their sales. In order to have used on lot or at auction for used car only dealers, they need those sales.

The dealership I visited yesterday received their last known F-150 (non order) 2 weeks ago. They're getting in random low equipped vehicles in but those are selling before even a chance to hit the lot.

A GM dealer I work with in MO has zero Silverados in stock. They'll typically carry 50 to 60.

 

[SoCal_Corn]

Yeah it’s crazy right now. I’ve considered selling my truck only because I could get more than what I paid for it.

My 2016 Tacoma just hit 40,000 miles.
Lots of CA-AZ-CA-AZ trips.

I paid $29,000 for it at a MB dealer in 2018.
It had 21,000 miles on it.
And they took my dad's Honda in trade for MORE than I couldn't sell it for for 3 weeks on Car Gurus in LA


At the Scottsdale AZ Toyota dealer (yeah, I know Scottsdale), they have a 2016 4x4 Off Road version with nearly 50% more miles (20,000 miles) for $37,000 and they claim it's ON SALE. 😳




Good luck in the Truck search and I would normally recommend a Tacoma, but well...you know.

 

[alt f4]

Bruh, you know I respect the living fuck out of your opinion. 2005-2010 1/2 ton pickups in the $7-10K range ARE NOT $3K overpriced right now. Maybe a few hundred bucks higher. Now Jim Bob in McCook may be jacking prices up more, but nationally they aren’t inflated that much on a 10-15 year old work truck. 🤷🏼‍♂️

Currently, I'm talking 90%+ of used car market. Not the sub $10k or $15k or older vehicles. But, even those will start to see the 20 to 25% price bump as people need to stay in price ranges and those vehicles begin to be bought up. There won't be a replenishment for those via auction or from trades.

We're still at least 30 to 45 days before we see it across all price levels.

 

[slattimer]

Lumber will definitely be coming back down (IMO). I've got a family member whose uncle made a fortune in the lumber business. His guidance was that lumber was set to crash as there are roughly 80,000 loads of lumber (truck & train car) north of the border in Canada awaiting clearance to enter the US market. They didn't stop harvesting and processing trees up north; we just stopped commerce at the border for a long time due to the 'Rona.

Not meaning to hijack the thread but this interests me. As we’re thinking about building in the future, next year potentially.

 

[Cash68847]

Not meaning to hijack the thread but this interests me. As we’re thinking about building in the future, next year potentially.

The interest rate will start creeping up then I bet. It will still be low and better than these lumber prices. I’ll be surprised if lumber prices ever go back to what they were before this crazy price hike. It’s not even just lumber. Every construction trade can’t get materials now.

 

[tman87]

The interest rate will start creeping up then I bet. It will still be low and better than these lumber prices. I’ll be surprised if lumber prices ever go back to what they were before this crazy price hike. It’s not even just lumber. Every construction trade can’t get materials now.

I agree, lumber prices will never get back to $8 for a sheet of 7/16 OSB (as an example) Need that time machine to go buy up 100 bunks of OSB, store it in one of my garages, then sell it "at a discount" for $70 a sheet. Could make 4 to 5 grand on that markup per bunk alone.

Now, if we have a huge bubble that pops, interest rates soar, then we will see the supply/demand chain level out. But I doubt ever to prices what they were 18 months ago.