The final projection from Baseball America
www.baseballamerica.com
2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Final Projected Field of 64
by Teddy Cahill, Baseball America
In our final update, we now know the 16 host sites, as the NCAA announced them Sunday evening. However, if you've been following these projections all week, there were no surprises on the host sites.
The race for the final spots in the top eight is tight. Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Stanford and Texas Tech are all very close. Mississippi State and Notre Dame get the nod for the final two spots here -- Notre Dame for its ACC regular-season championship and 16 wins away from home, the most of any of the four teams, and Mississippi State for its third-place finish in the SEC.
This projection includes the unusual arrangement of South Carolina hosting a regional as a No. 2 seed, with Old Dominion as the No. 1 seed. ODU did not bid to host and therefore is not on the shortlist of the 20 teams that the selection committee can pick from to host regionals. But the Monarchs rank No. 13 in RPI (the best of any C-USA team), are 20-6 away from home, 14-6 against top-50 RPI teams and 21-11 against top-100 teams. Those metrics all stack up favorably when compared to any other potential No. 1 seed.
A traveling No. 1 seed would be unconventional in the modern version of the NCAA Tournament. The selection committee has not sent a top seed on the road since 2010 when Florida State was the No. 1 seed in the Norwich Regional, hosted by Connecticut. It previously was a more common part of the NCAA Tournament, but as more schools have invested more money in their facilities, more schools have met the hosting requirements.
The race for the final few at-large spots is also tight. There are more than half a dozen teams that have strong claims for the last three at-large bids. In the end, Alabama, Fairfield and LSU are given the nod here. Fairfield is an extreme outlier having only played a conference schedule (which it dominated) and it's anyone's guess how the committee will evaluate it, but with the No. 2 RPI, flawed as that metric may be, the guess here is the Stags are in. Alabama and LSU both rank in the top 35 of RPI and the top five in strength of schedule. Those two numbers may carry the day.
But Ball State, Georgia, Long Beach State, Louisville and Michigan, among others, all have strong cases and the selection committee will have its work cut out for it.
LAST FOUR IN
Alabama
LSU
Fairfield
Campbell
FIRST FOUR OUT
Georgia
Louisville
Ball State
Michigan
NEXT FOUR OUT
Long Beach State
San Diego
Florida Atlantic
Kansas State
---------------------------------------------
FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Arkansas (1)
#4 Jacksonville
#2 Maryland
#3 Northeastern
RUSTON REGIONAL
#1 Louisiana Tech (16)
#4 South Alabama
#2 Oklahoma State
#3 LSU
---------------------------------------------
NASHVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Vanderbilt (2)
#4 New Jersey Tech
#2 Virginia Commonwealth
#3 Wright State
EUGENE REGIONAL
#1 Oregon (15)
#4 Rider
#2 Gonzaga
#3 UC-Santa Barbara
---------------------------------------------
KNOXVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Tennessee (3)
#4 Southeast Missouri State
#2 Charlotte
#3 Campbell
GAINESVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Florida (14)
#4 South Florida
#2 Florida State
#3 Arizona State
---------------------------------------------
FORT WORTH REGIONAL
#1 TCU (4)
#4 Central Connecticut State
#2 Miami (FL)
#3 Dallas Baptist
GREENVILLE REGIONAL
#1 East Carolina (13)
#4 Norfolk State
#2 Duke
#3 Liberty
---------------------------------------------
AUSTIN REGIONAL
#1 Texas (5)
#4 McNeese State
#2 Nebraska
#3 Alabama
OXFORD REGIONAL
#1 Mississippi (12)
#4 Samford
#2 Southern Mississippi
#3 Virginia
---------------------------------------------
TUCSON REGIONAL
#1 Arizona (6)
#4 Grand Canyon
#2 North Carolina State
#3 Fairfield
COLUMBIA REGIONAL
#1 Old Dominion (11)
#4 Presbyterian
#2 South Carolina
#3 North Carolina
---------------------------------------------
SOUTH BEND REGIONAL
#1 Notre Dame (7)
#4 Central Michigan
#2 Connecticut
#3 Indianus State
LUBBOCK REGIONAL
#1 Texas Tech (10)
#4 Army
#2 UCLAbia
#3 Pittsburgh
---------------------------------------------
STARKVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Mississippi State (8)
#4 Southern
#2 Georgia Tech
#3 Oregon State
STANFORD REGIONAL
#1 Stanford (9)
#4 North Dakota State
#2 UC-Irvine
#3 Nevada
2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Final Projected Field Of 64
Conference tournament play is here and Selection Monday is just days away. Here is our latest bracket projection.
www.baseballamerica.com
2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Final Projected Field of 64
by Teddy Cahill, Baseball America
In our final update, we now know the 16 host sites, as the NCAA announced them Sunday evening. However, if you've been following these projections all week, there were no surprises on the host sites.
The race for the final spots in the top eight is tight. Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Stanford and Texas Tech are all very close. Mississippi State and Notre Dame get the nod for the final two spots here -- Notre Dame for its ACC regular-season championship and 16 wins away from home, the most of any of the four teams, and Mississippi State for its third-place finish in the SEC.
This projection includes the unusual arrangement of South Carolina hosting a regional as a No. 2 seed, with Old Dominion as the No. 1 seed. ODU did not bid to host and therefore is not on the shortlist of the 20 teams that the selection committee can pick from to host regionals. But the Monarchs rank No. 13 in RPI (the best of any C-USA team), are 20-6 away from home, 14-6 against top-50 RPI teams and 21-11 against top-100 teams. Those metrics all stack up favorably when compared to any other potential No. 1 seed.
A traveling No. 1 seed would be unconventional in the modern version of the NCAA Tournament. The selection committee has not sent a top seed on the road since 2010 when Florida State was the No. 1 seed in the Norwich Regional, hosted by Connecticut. It previously was a more common part of the NCAA Tournament, but as more schools have invested more money in their facilities, more schools have met the hosting requirements.
The race for the final few at-large spots is also tight. There are more than half a dozen teams that have strong claims for the last three at-large bids. In the end, Alabama, Fairfield and LSU are given the nod here. Fairfield is an extreme outlier having only played a conference schedule (which it dominated) and it's anyone's guess how the committee will evaluate it, but with the No. 2 RPI, flawed as that metric may be, the guess here is the Stags are in. Alabama and LSU both rank in the top 35 of RPI and the top five in strength of schedule. Those two numbers may carry the day.
But Ball State, Georgia, Long Beach State, Louisville and Michigan, among others, all have strong cases and the selection committee will have its work cut out for it.
LAST FOUR IN
Alabama
LSU
Fairfield
Campbell
FIRST FOUR OUT
Georgia
Louisville
Ball State
Michigan
NEXT FOUR OUT
Long Beach State
San Diego
Florida Atlantic
Kansas State
---------------------------------------------
FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Arkansas (1)
#4 Jacksonville
#2 Maryland
#3 Northeastern
RUSTON REGIONAL
#1 Louisiana Tech (16)
#4 South Alabama
#2 Oklahoma State
#3 LSU
---------------------------------------------
NASHVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Vanderbilt (2)
#4 New Jersey Tech
#2 Virginia Commonwealth
#3 Wright State
EUGENE REGIONAL
#1 Oregon (15)
#4 Rider
#2 Gonzaga
#3 UC-Santa Barbara
---------------------------------------------
KNOXVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Tennessee (3)
#4 Southeast Missouri State
#2 Charlotte
#3 Campbell
GAINESVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Florida (14)
#4 South Florida
#2 Florida State
#3 Arizona State
---------------------------------------------
FORT WORTH REGIONAL
#1 TCU (4)
#4 Central Connecticut State
#2 Miami (FL)
#3 Dallas Baptist
GREENVILLE REGIONAL
#1 East Carolina (13)
#4 Norfolk State
#2 Duke
#3 Liberty
---------------------------------------------
AUSTIN REGIONAL
#1 Texas (5)
#4 McNeese State
#2 Nebraska
#3 Alabama
OXFORD REGIONAL
#1 Mississippi (12)
#4 Samford
#2 Southern Mississippi
#3 Virginia
---------------------------------------------
TUCSON REGIONAL
#1 Arizona (6)
#4 Grand Canyon
#2 North Carolina State
#3 Fairfield
COLUMBIA REGIONAL
#1 Old Dominion (11)
#4 Presbyterian
#2 South Carolina
#3 North Carolina
---------------------------------------------
SOUTH BEND REGIONAL
#1 Notre Dame (7)
#4 Central Michigan
#2 Connecticut
#3 Indianus State
LUBBOCK REGIONAL
#1 Texas Tech (10)
#4 Army
#2 UCLAbia
#3 Pittsburgh
---------------------------------------------
STARKVILLE REGIONAL
#1 Mississippi State (8)
#4 Southern
#2 Georgia Tech
#3 Oregon State
STANFORD REGIONAL
#1 Stanford (9)
#4 North Dakota State
#2 UC-Irvine
#3 Nevada
