Editorial ChatGPT Editorial: From Competent to Elite: What Dylan Raiola Must Do Over the Next Two Seasons

[Kaladin]

From Competent to Elite: What Dylan Raiola Must Do Over the Next Two Seasons​

In the NFL, quarterback development is often measured in two major leaps:

1. Rookie to Competent Starter – proving you belong.
2. Competent Starter to All-Pro – proving you can dominate.

These same benchmarks can be applied to college football. And for Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola—coming off a record-setting freshman season in Lincoln—the road from promising newcomer to elite national quarterback will be forged over the next two years.

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The NFL Blueprint​

NFL data on quarterbacks from the past 15 years shows that the jump from a first-year starter to a competent second-year player involves modest but meaningful gains:

• Completion percentage climbs by +2 to +4 points.
• Yards per attempt rises by +0.3 to +0.7.
• Touchdown-to-interception ratio improves toward 2:1 or better.
• Passer rating increases by +5 to +10 points.
• Sack rate drops as decision-making and pocket feel improve.

The leap from competent to All-Pro is far more dramatic. In the NFL, that means:

• Completion rate in the 67–70% range.
• Yards per attempt up +0.5 to +1.0 over an already solid baseline.
• Passing totals rise by +700–1,200 yards.
• Touchdowns surge by +8–15, while interceptions drop by 3–5.
• Passer ratings soar into the 105–115+ range, with consistent third-down and red-zone dominance.

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The Josh Allen Example​

Few have made that leap more dramatically than Josh Allen.
In 2019, Allen was competent but raw—completing 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, with a passer rating of 85.3.
In 2020, he exploded:

• Completion %: 69.2 (+10.4 points)
• Yards: 4,544 (+1,455)
• Touchdowns: 37 (+17)
• Passer Rating: 107.2 (+21.9)

Allen didn’t just improve—he became one of the most feared passers in the league. His growth was driven by improved mechanics, faster processing, and more aggressive but smarter downfield passing.
That’s the kind of transformation Dylan Raiola can aim for—scaled to the college game.

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Raiola’s Freshman Baseline​

Raiola’s first season in Lincoln was the definition of a competent start—especially for a true freshman:

• Completion %: 67.1% (school freshman record)
• Passing yards: 2,819
• Touchdowns: 13
• Interceptions: 11
• Passer rating: ~129.9

These numbers are above-average for a debut season, but in college football, “above average” is the starting line for greatness. To elevate into the national elite, Raiola must now make his sophomore and junior seasons mirror the NFL’s “Year 2” and “All-Pro” jumps.

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The Sophomore Leap: Competent to Very Good​

For 2025, Raiola’s targets should match that NFL “Year 2” profile:

• Completion %: Raise to 68–70%.
• Passing yards: Climb toward 3,200–3,500.
• Touchdowns: Increase to 20–25.
• Interceptions: Cut to 7–8.
• Passer rating: Push into the 135–140 range.
• Situational play: Lift third-down conversion to above 45% and red-zone TD rate to ~65%.

These gains will come not from raw arm talent—Raiola already has that—but from faster reads, sharper pre-snap recognition, and better ball placement under duress.

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The Junior Breakout: Very Good to Elite​

If Raiola stays in Lincoln for his junior year, the next step is the All-Pro equivalent—playing like a top-three quarterback in the country:

• Passing yards: 3,800–4,000+
• TD/INT: At least 25–30 TDs with fewer than 7 picks.
• Completion %: Hold at 69–71%.
• Passer rating: 145+.
• Chunk plays: Increase 20+ yard completions, signaling explosive offense without reckless turnovers.
• Leadership: Become the offensive center of gravity—making teammates better and winning big games on his arm.

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Projected Development Path​

Season	Completion %	Passing Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Passer Rating	3rd Down Conv.	Red Zone TD %
Freshman (2024)	67.1	2,819	13	11	~129.9	N/A	N/A
Sophomore Target	68–70	3,200–3,500	20–25	7–8	135–140	>45%	~65%
Junior Target	69–71	3,800–4,000+	25–30+	<7	145+	>48%	70%+

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How This Compares to Elite College Breakouts​

Looking at recent Heisman-caliber seasons shows the scale of the challenge.

QB / Season	Completion %	Passing Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Passer Rating
Dylan Raiola – Sophomore Target (2025)	68–70	3,200–3,500	20–25	7–8	135–140
Dylan Raiola – Junior Target (2026)	69–71	3,800–4,000+	25–30+	<7	145+
Joe Burrow – 2019 LSU	76.3	5,671	60	6	202.0
Jalen Hurts – 2019 Oklahoma	69.7	3,851	32	8	191.2

Joe Burrow’s 2019 season remains the gold standard—statistically otherworldly and backed by a national title. Jalen Hurts’ 2019 season at Oklahoma showed a different elite path, combining high efficiency with explosive production.
For Raiola, hitting his junior-year targets would not necessarily mean breaking Burrow’s or Hurts’ records—but it would put him squarely in the conversation for major awards and make Nebraska a legitimate contender.

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What It Will Take​

Raiola’s trajectory will depend on:

• Offensive line stability—time in the pocket to let plays develop.
• Playcalling continuity—building on Dana Holgorsen’s efficiency-first approach.
• Supporting cast growth—receivers who can separate and backs who keep defenses honest.
• Consistency—eliminating “clunker” games and producing week after week.

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The Big Picture​

In NFL terms, Raiola’s freshman year proved he belongs on the field. His sophomore year must prove he can be a high-level college starter. His junior season must prove he can be a Heisman contender.
The leap from competent to elite is rare—but it’s also what separates statistical darlings from program-changing legends. If Dylan Raiola hits these benchmarks, Nebraska won’t just have its quarterback of the future—they’ll have a player capable of putting the Huskers back in the national conversation.

 

[Kaladin]

I am bored at work so I was messing around with ChatGPT and had it draft this.

I have no idea if anything in here is factual.

 

[Kaladin]

The Competent-to-Elite Leap: Lessons from College Quarterbacks — and What It Means for Dylan Raiola​

In college football, quarterback growth can be measured in the same way NFL scouts track their passers:

1. Year One to Year Two — the Competence Leap: proving you’re more than just a raw talent.
2. The Competent-to-Elite Leap: proving you can dominate, contend for awards, and carry a team to championships.

When you study recent history, certain patterns emerge. The numbers tell a story, and for quarterbacks in systems like Dana Holgorsen’s, those leaps can be meteoric.

Defining “Competent” and “Elite” in College Football​

While the NFL uses passer rating and EPA/play to judge growth, the college game has its own benchmarks. Over the last decade, high-level Power Five QBs fit roughly into these ranges:

• Competent Starter
  65–67% completion percentage
  7.6–8.0 yards per attempt
  TD:INT ratio of at least 2:1
  Passer rating of 140–150
  Solid situational execution in third down and red zone
• Elite / Heisman-Caliber
  68–70%+ completion percentage
  8.5–10.5 yards per attempt
  TD:INT ratio of 3.5:1 or better
  Passer rating of 170–200+
  Sustained explosive plays and near-automatic red zone scoring

College Case Studies: The Leap in Action​

Joe Burrow (LSU)​

• 2018: 57.8% | 2,894 yds | 16 TD | 5 INT | 133.2 rating
• 2019: 76.3% | 5,671 yds | 60 TD | 6 INT | 202.0 rating
  Burrow’s jump is the gold standard: +18.5 in completion percentage, nearly 3,000 more yards, and 44 more touchdowns. That season ended with a Heisman Trophy and a national title.

Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma)​

• 2019: 69.7% | 3,851 yds | 32 TD | 8 INT | 191.2 rating | +1,298 rush yds, 20 rush TD
  Hurts’ efficiency soared in Lincoln Riley’s scheme, pairing elite passing efficiency with top-tier rushing production.

Caleb Williams (Oklahoma → USC)​

• 2021 (OU): 64.5% | 1,912 yds | 21 TD | 4 INT | 169.6 rating
• 2022 (USC): 66.6% | 4,537 yds | 42 TD | 5 INT | 168.5 rating (+10 rush TD)
  The defining change was in volume—doubling his yards and touchdowns while keeping turnovers low.

Geno Smith (West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen)​

• 2010: 64.8% | 2,763 yds | 24 TD | 7 INT | 144.7 rating
• 2011: 65.8% | 4,385 yds | 31 TD | 7 INT | 152.6 rating
• 2012: 71.2% | 4,205 yds | 42 TD | 6 INT | 163.9 rating
  Smith’s leap came through accuracy, volume, and a sharper TD-to-INT ratio—hallmarks of Holgorsen’s Air Raid principles.

Case Keenum (Houston, Dana Holgorsen)​

• 2008: 67.4% | 5,020 yds | 44 TD | 11 INT | 159.9 rating
• 2009: 70.3% | 5,671 yds | 44 TD | 15 INT | 154.8 rating
• 2011: 71.0% | 5,631 yds | 48 TD | 5 INT | 174.0 rating
  Keenum’s numbers show how Holgorsen’s offense can sustain elite production over multiple seasons.

Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State, Dana Holgorsen OC in 2010)​

• 2010: 66.9% | 4,277 yds | 34 TD | 13 INT | 154.1 rating
• 2011: 72.4% | 4,727 yds | 37 TD | 13 INT | 159.7 rating
  Weeden’s precision leap (+5.5% completion) pushed him into the national elite.

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The Anatomy of the Leap​

Across these examples, the Competent → Elite jump follows a pattern:

1. Accuracy + Aggression Together
   Completion percentage climbs 2–4 points while yards per attempt jump by 0.5–1.0.
2. Touchdowns Up, Turnovers Down
   +10–20 passing TDs year-over-year, with INTs flat or lower.
3. Situational Mastery
   Elite third-down and red-zone efficiency—turning drives into points.
4. System Alignment
   Offensive scheme fits QB strengths; in Holgorsen’s case, tempo, vertical shots, and YAC opportunities drive massive statistical growth.

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What This Means for Dylan Raiola​

Raiola’s freshman year—67.1% completions, 2,819 yards, 13 TD, 11 INT, 129.9 rating—fits the “competent” profile, especially for a true freshman.
His sophomore targets should match the Year Two competence bump:

• 68–70% completions
• 3,200–3,500 yards
• 20–25 TD, ≤8 INT
• Passer rating 135–140

By his junior season, to enter the elite tier:

• 69–71% completions
• 3,800–4,000+ yards
• 25–30+ TD, <7 INT
• Passer rating 145+
• High third-down/red-zone success

That trajectory mirrors Geno Smith’s and Brandon Weeden’s climbs in Holgorsen’s system—and could put Raiola in the Heisman conversation if he hits those marks.

The Big Picture​

The leap from competent to elite is rare, but history shows it’s possible—and often spectacular. Whether it’s Burrow’s all-time season, Hurts’ dual-threat dominance, or Keenum’s sustained excellence, the same formula applies: accuracy, aggression, touchdowns, and system mastery.


For Dylan Raiola, under Dana Holgorsen’s guidance, the path is clear. The question now is whether he can take not just the first leap into competence, but the second, far harder jump into the college football elite.

 

[V-Doub]

I once asked chatGBT what my farts smell like.

 

[Kaladin]

I once asked chatGBT what my farts smell like.

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