CFB Matrix calls BS on Notre Dame AD

[Carm]

​ ​ ​ Dominate 10 Game Win Streaks of 2025​ ​ Dave Bartoo - CFBMatrix Dec 10, 2025​  ​ ​ View in app​ ​ ​

​ ​ Scrolling through the social medias yesterday I saw Nicole Auerbach (you should follow her BTW if you're a CFB fan @NicoleAuerbach) that she posted a quote from the Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua: “We had one of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football.” Now I would have been OK with top 3 runs this year, but historically, that is a LOT of games. Instead of glossing over it, I saw a quick challenge to see what modeled as the top 10 game win streaks of 2025 (no championship games). Enjoy - Bartoo ========================================================================= Pete Bevacqua Said Notre Dame Had "One of the Most Dominant 10-Game Runs in the History of College Football" The Data Says Otherwise. It Wasn't Even the Most Dominant in 2025. Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua is having a week. After the Irish were left out of the College Football Playoff in favor of Miami — a team that, you know, beat them — Bevacqua has been on a media tour that can only be described as "scorched earth with a side of self-pity." He called the decision "a gut punch." He said the playoff "was stolen from our student-athletes." He accused the ACC of doing "permanent damage" to its relationship with Notre Dame. And on Tuesday, standing at a podium in the Joyce Center, he dropped this gem: "We were shocked, I would say, mystified, about what happened Sunday. We had one of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football." One of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football. That's a bold claim. Let's fact-check it. The Methodology We analyzed every 10-game winning streak from the 2025 CFB season using two key metrics: Margin of Victory (MOV): How much did they win by? Dominance Score: MOV adjusted for opponent strength — calculated as Average MOV × (1 + Average Opponent Strength) The Dominance Score rewards teams that not only won big but did so against quality opponents. A 30-point average MOV against cupcakes is less impressive than a 25-point average MOV against ranked teams. The Results: Notre Dame Ranks... #3 Here's where things get awkward for Bevacqua. Notre Dame's 10-game run wasn't even the most dominant this season. Two teams — Indiana and Ohio State — had objectively better stretches by every measurable metric. Breaking Down the Numbers Indiana: The Actual Most Dominant Team Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers didn't just win their 10 games — they annihilated opponents by an average of 34.1 points. They outperformed the spread by +16.6 points per game, the best mark in the nation. They scored 44.9 PPG while allowing just 10.8 PPG. Oh, and they beat #3 Oregon on the road as 12.7-point underdogs — the single most impressive win of anyone's streak. The Hoosiers then went on to beat Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship to finish 13-0 and earn the #1 seed in the CFP. They are, quite literally, the only undefeated team left in college football. But sure, Pete, tell us more about Notre Dame's "historical" dominance. Ohio State: The Defensive Juggernaut The Buckeyes' 10-game stretch featured the most dominant defense in college football — and it wasn't close. Ohio State allowed just 7.7 PPG during their run, nearly half of what Notre Dame surrendered (14.3 PPG). Ohio State became the first defense in 50 years to hold all of its first 12 opponents under 17 points. They led the nation in both scoring defense (7.8 PPG) and total defense (204 YPG). They had zero red zone touchdowns allowed for most of the season. ESPN's Greg McElroy called them "significantly better than we thought they would be" and ranked them the #1 defense in America. FOX's RJ Young wrote they were "flirting with becoming one of the best defenses in the history of the sport" and compared them to Alabama's legendary 2011 unit. Notre Dame gave up nearly double the points. But yeah, "history of college football." Notre Dame: Good, Not Great Let's be clear: Notre Dame's 10-game winning streak was impressive. They averaged 29.7 points MOV with 8 blowouts and zero close games. They outperformed the spread by +8.2 points per game. The Syracuse game (70-7, +63 MOV) and the Arkansas game (+35.3 vs. spread) were legitimately dominant performances. But here's the problem with Bevacqua's claim: ​ ​ They lost the game immediately before this "dominant" stretch. Texas A&M beat them 41-40 in Week 3. Hard to claim historical dominance when you literally lost the week before.​ ​ Their schedule was soft. Average opponent strength of just 1.5% — meaning they were massive favorites in nearly every game. USC was the only ranked Power Four team they beat during the streak.​ ​ They underperformed in key games. The Boston College game (-13.5 vs. spread) and the USC game (+0.5 vs. spread) weren't exactly "dominant."​ ​ Context matters. As Canes Warning pointed out, "several opponents finished with losing records, Pitt's head coach Pat Narduzzi said prior to their matchup against ND that the outcome of the game did not matter."​ ​ What Bevacqua Could Have Said (Honestly) There were plenty of legitimate talking points available: ✓ "Notre Dame finished with 8 blowouts in their final 10 games." ✓ "Notre Dame averaged nearly 30 points MOV and had zero close games down the stretch." ✓ "We did everything the committee asked us to do after losing two games by a combined four points." All of those are true. All of those are defensible. But "one of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football"? Not even close. Not even for 2025. The Bigger Picture What makes this particularly tone-deaf is the comparison to what Indiana just accomplished. Two years ago, Indiana was the losingest program in major college football history. They were a punchline. A doormat. The team everyone scheduled for homecoming. Then Curt Cignetti showed up, said "I win — Google me," and proceeded to go 24-2 in two seasons, win the Big Ten title, and earn the #1 seed in the College Football Playoff with an undefeated record. That's a historic run. That's something we've never seen before. Notre Dame going 10-0 after starting 0-2 against quality opponents? That's a good recovery. That's a solid season. That's worthy of respect. But "one of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football"? Come on, Pete. The data's right there. The Reaction Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark didn't hold back when asked about Bevacqua's media tour: "I don't like how Notre Dame's reacted to it. I think Pete, his behavior has been egregious. I think he is totally out of bounds in his approach, and if he was in the room, I'd tell him the same thing." Strong words. But when you're publicly claiming historical greatness for a streak that wasn't even the best in your own season, maybe the pushback is warranted. Final Verdict Bevacqua's Claim: "One of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football." The Reality: ​ ​ #3 in 2025 (behind Indiana and Ohio State)​ ​ Lower average MOV than both teams ahead of them​ ​ Gave up nearly double the points of Ohio State​ ​ Played a schedule with 1.5% average opponent strength​ ​ Lost the game immediately before the streak started​ ​ Grade: C+ It was a good 10-game stretch. It wasn't historically dominant. And it definitely wasn't worth the week-long meltdown. Maybe next time, just take the L and move on. Analysis by Matrix Analytical Solutions using 2025 CFB season data through Week 14. Dominance calculated using opening spreads from DraftKings, Bovada, and ESPN Bet.​ ​ ​

 

[BeerConsumer67]

​

​ ​ Dominate 10 Game Win Streaks of 2025 Dave Bartoo - CFBMatrix Dec 10, 2025   View in app

​

​ ​ Scrolling through the social medias yesterday I saw Nicole Auerbach (you should follow her BTW if you're a CFB fan @NicoleAuerbach) that she posted a quote from the Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua: “We had one of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football.” Now I would have been OK with top 3 runs this year, but historically, that is a LOT of games. Instead of glossing over it, I saw a quick challenge to see what modeled as the top 10 game win streaks of 2025 (no championship games). Enjoy - Bartoo ========================================================================= Pete Bevacqua Said Notre Dame Had "One of the Most Dominant 10-Game Runs in the History of College Football" The Data Says Otherwise. It Wasn't Even the Most Dominant in 2025. Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua is having a week. After the Irish were left out of the College Football Playoff in favor of Miami — a team that, you know, beat them — Bevacqua has been on a media tour that can only be described as "scorched earth with a side of self-pity." He called the decision "a gut punch." He said the playoff "was stolen from our student-athletes." He accused the ACC of doing "permanent damage" to its relationship with Notre Dame. And on Tuesday, standing at a podium in the Joyce Center, he dropped this gem: "We were shocked, I would say, mystified, about what happened Sunday. We had one of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football." One of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football. That's a bold claim. Let's fact-check it. The Methodology We analyzed every 10-game winning streak from the 2025 CFB season using two key metrics: Margin of Victory (MOV): How much did they win by? Dominance Score: MOV adjusted for opponent strength — calculated as Average MOV × (1 + Average Opponent Strength) The Dominance Score rewards teams that not only won big but did so against quality opponents. A 30-point average MOV against cupcakes is less impressive than a 25-point average MOV against ranked teams. The Results: Notre Dame Ranks... #3 Here's where things get awkward for Bevacqua. Notre Dame's 10-game run wasn't even the most dominant this season. Two teams — Indiana and Ohio State — had objectively better stretches by every measurable metric. Breaking Down the Numbers Indiana: The Actual Most Dominant Team Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers didn't just win their 10 games — they annihilated opponents by an average of 34.1 points. They outperformed the spread by +16.6 points per game, the best mark in the nation. They scored 44.9 PPG while allowing just 10.8 PPG. Oh, and they beat #3 Oregon on the road as 12.7-point underdogs — the single most impressive win of anyone's streak. The Hoosiers then went on to beat Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship to finish 13-0 and earn the #1 seed in the CFP. They are, quite literally, the only undefeated team left in college football. But sure, Pete, tell us more about Notre Dame's "historical" dominance. Ohio State: The Defensive Juggernaut The Buckeyes' 10-game stretch featured the most dominant defense in college football — and it wasn't close. Ohio State allowed just 7.7 PPG during their run, nearly half of what Notre Dame surrendered (14.3 PPG). Ohio State became the first defense in 50 years to hold all of its first 12 opponents under 17 points. They led the nation in both scoring defense (7.8 PPG) and total defense (204 YPG). They had zero red zone touchdowns allowed for most of the season. ESPN's Greg McElroy called them "significantly better than we thought they would be" and ranked them the #1 defense in America. FOX's RJ Young wrote they were "flirting with becoming one of the best defenses in the history of the sport" and compared them to Alabama's legendary 2011 unit. Notre Dame gave up nearly double the points. But yeah, "history of college football." Notre Dame: Good, Not Great Let's be clear: Notre Dame's 10-game winning streak was impressive. They averaged 29.7 points MOV with 8 blowouts and zero close games. They outperformed the spread by +8.2 points per game. The Syracuse game (70-7, +63 MOV) and the Arkansas game (+35.3 vs. spread) were legitimately dominant performances. But here's the problem with Bevacqua's claim: They lost the game immediately before this "dominant" stretch. Texas A&M beat them 41-40 in Week 3. Hard to claim historical dominance when you literally lost the week before. Their schedule was soft. Average opponent strength of just 1.5% — meaning they were massive favorites in nearly every game. USC was the only ranked Power Four team they beat during the streak. They underperformed in key games. The Boston College game (-13.5 vs. spread) and the USC game (+0.5 vs. spread) weren't exactly "dominant." Context matters. As Canes Warning pointed out, "several opponents finished with losing records, Pitt's head coach Pat Narduzzi said prior to their matchup against ND that the outcome of the game did not matter." What Bevacqua Could Have Said (Honestly) There were plenty of legitimate talking points available: ✓ "Notre Dame finished with 8 blowouts in their final 10 games." ✓ "Notre Dame averaged nearly 30 points MOV and had zero close games down the stretch." ✓ "We did everything the committee asked us to do after losing two games by a combined four points." All of those are true. All of those are defensible. But "one of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football"? Not even close. Not even for 2025. The Bigger Picture What makes this particularly tone-deaf is the comparison to what Indiana just accomplished. Two years ago, Indiana was the losingest program in major college football history. They were a punchline. A doormat. The team everyone scheduled for homecoming. Then Curt Cignetti showed up, said "I win — Google me," and proceeded to go 24-2 in two seasons, win the Big Ten title, and earn the #1 seed in the College Football Playoff with an undefeated record. That's a historic run. That's something we've never seen before. Notre Dame going 10-0 after starting 0-2 against quality opponents? That's a good recovery. That's a solid season. That's worthy of respect. But "one of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football"? Come on, Pete. The data's right there. The Reaction Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark didn't hold back when asked about Bevacqua's media tour: "I don't like how Notre Dame's reacted to it. I think Pete, his behavior has been egregious. I think he is totally out of bounds in his approach, and if he was in the room, I'd tell him the same thing." Strong words. But when you're publicly claiming historical greatness for a streak that wasn't even the best in your own season, maybe the pushback is warranted. Final Verdict Bevacqua's Claim: "One of the most dominant 10-game runs in the history of college football." The Reality: #3 in 2025 (behind Indiana and Ohio State) Lower average MOV than both teams ahead of them Gave up nearly double the points of Ohio State Played a schedule with 1.5% average opponent strength Lost the game immediately before the streak started Grade: C+ It was a good 10-game stretch. It wasn't historically dominant. And it definitely wasn't worth the week-long meltdown. Maybe next time, just take the L and move on. Analysis by Matrix Analytical Solutions using 2025 CFB season data through Week 14. Dominance calculated using opening spreads from DraftKings, Bovada, and ESPN Bet.

It’s retarded they basically played a G5 schedule outside the games they lost. They did have the quality loss market cornered.

 

[Juro]

This is too much work for me to read this on mobile with the scrolling left to right.

 

[herbsinator]

It’s retarded they basically played a G5 schedule outside the games they lost. They did have the quality loss market cornered.

Their argument should be “we’re basically a G5 team and play a G5 schedule, so we should get in by virtue of being the highest rated G5 team”

 

[TampaBaySkers]

Their argument should be “we’re basically a G5 team and play a G5 schedule, so we should get in by virtue of being the highest rated G5 team”

I’m confident in saying that JMU or Tulane would not beat USC

 

[Alcaus]

All that mattered was how Notre Dame stacked up vs Miami.

Notre Dame should’ve gotten in over them but I hate both so the silver lining is seeing Miami blown out by TAMU who then gets blown out by OSU who then gets blown out by Ole Miss who wins the whole thing.

 

[Cash68847]

I’m confident in saying that JMU or Tulane would not beat USC

I’m confident Notre Dame would beat OU and Bama. Just give me the 12 top teams. If one of these lower conference teams have a great year like the UCF team did in 2017 let them in, but Tulane and James Madison shouldn’t be in the playoff.

 

[V-Doub]

That was a lot of work to confirm what everyone already knew.

 

[V-Doub]

I’m confident Notre Dame would beat OU and Bama. Just give me the 12 top teams. If one of these lower conference teams have a great year like the UCF team did in 2017 let them in, but Tulane and James Madison shouldn’t be in the playoff.

I feel pretty confident that ND would be favored over both OU and Bama. Probably be good/close games but ND definitely could/should beat those teams. And ND would destroy JMU and Tulane by 3+ TDs.

I would love it if they just took the top 12 ranked teams. But if you’re gonna do it that way then you almost have to guarantee all the G5 teams an opportunity to play at minimum 2 P4 teams in the non-conference. Under a straight top 12 system most/all G5 teams won’t be able to put together a resume that will put them in the top 12. But… if a team like Tulane can have 2 P4 wins and go undefeated I think they should get a shot. But I kinda think your G5 contenders really have to go 12-0. Maybe, possibly a G5 team could squeak in with an 11-1 record depending on who their P4 wins are against and what the rest of the P4 does that year. If there’s no undefeated teams going into the playoffs (will definitely happen at some point) and only a couple 1 loss teams… Maybe a G5 could get in with an 11-1 record.

 

[Dawgsauce]

you should follow her BTW if you're a CFB fan @NicoleAuerbach) t

Stopped following in 21, and haven't regretted a second of it.

seeing Miami blown out by TAMU

Honestly no feel for how good Tamu is and not so sure Miami doesn't win this game.

 

[Tell_Sackett]

Bevacqua's statement is a massive reach.

However, ND is easily a top 6 team. They were screwed by politicking. Their poll drop makes no sense, Bama's lack of drop makes no sense, and ESPNs influence in the rankings makes all the sense in the world. Their fingers are all over this.

ND's schedule is very defensible. Their ACC slate was weak...3 of the 6 teams were historically bad... Stanford was just bad while Pitt and Miami were good to great. The conference slate isn't directly under their control. Other games with MSU, USC, and Boise are all good to great programs. They scheduled two SEC schools, and Navy who won 9 games, was ranked, and is a traditional rival. Purdue was terrible, but are also a BIG rival and aren't normally this bad. There are no Eastern Illinois.... Samford... Houston Christian... Akron....

The SEC once again benefits from their 8 game conference schedule to justify 1 or 2 extra teams in. 8 fewer losses spread throughout the conference. Thankfully that ends starting next year.

I continue to hate how I am defending ND. I need to take a shower.

 

[Tell_Sackett]

Stopped following in 21, and haven't regretted a second of it.

Honestly no feel for how good Tamu is and not so sure Miami doesn't win this game.

I think Miami will win, and it may be handily.

 

[BeerConsumer67]

I’m confident Notre Dame would beat OU and Bama. Just give me the 12 top teams. If one of these lower conference teams have a great year like the UCF team did in 2017 let them in, but Tulane and James Madison shouldn’t be in the playoff.

This the same logic that gets you 2023 bama over fsu

 

[2010sarenevercomingback]

Stopped following in 21, and haven't regretted a second of it.

How will you keep up to date on which articles the conference crisis PR firms are laundering to journalists without her? And if she has published an updated article about how many college football players died from playing football in 2020?