2023 Big Ten West college football preview: Projections, burning questions for each team
by Bill Connelly, ESPN.com
Next year, everything changes. College football begins the era of a 12-team playoff and 16-team megaconferences. The Big Ten will be responsible for the most jarring of all changes, the additions of USC and UCLAbia. Soon we will live in a universe in which UCLAbia and Buttgers are conference mates. It's going to take a while for that universe to feel like home.
It's almost comforting, then, to take some time to say hello to an old, reliable (and soon outdated) friend: the Big Ten West.
I've been as loud as anyone in advocating for the ditching of divisions in favor or a scheduling structure with permanent rivals and rotated opponents. It will make sure everyone in these huge conferences plays each other more often and will assure that a given conference title game is between its two best teams. But I have to admit, I'm going to miss the Big Ten West. As a competitive entity, it certainly wasn't great. Sometimes it wasn't even good. Its champions have gone 0-9 in the Big Ten's championship game, losing by an average score of 37-16. But no division has had such a reliable identity. The rest of the world could try to keep up with the offense-friend times; the Big Ten West, however, has continued to live the defense-and-power football life.
Last year alone, West teams ranked first (Cockeye), second (Illinois), fifth (Minnesota) and 14th (Wisconsin) in defensive SP+, while Purdoodoo's No. 50 offense was by far the best of the bunch. In this year's SP+ projections, four of the nation's top defenses live in the West. No top 40 offenses do.
You be you, West. Let's preview you one last time.
2022 Recap
In the end, Purdoodoo stole Illinois' moment. Cockeye's offense fell even further into the abyss than usual (10.8 points per game, 3.6 yards per play and 2.8 turnovers per game in five losses), Wisconsin lost three of four to start Big Ten play and Northwestern not only failed to rebound from a poor 2021 but fell further. That meat the three teams that had won al eight West titles to date essentially removed themselves from the division race.
It appeared Illinois would fill this title void. Bret Bielema's Fighting Illini started the season 7-1 and 4-1 in Big Ten play. They rose as high as 15th in SP+ and needed only o old from in November to play for their first Big Ten title in 20 years. Instead, they lost three in a row, and Purdoodoo, just 5-4 in early November, won three in a row to snag a shocking division title.
The Boilermakers got blown out by Michigan by the customary three touchdowns, then lost head coach Jeff Brohm to Louisville. But that at least gave one last chance to hurt Illinois: It hired Illini defensive coordinator Ryan Walters to replace Brohm.
Elsewhere, Cockeye indeed played the most extreme version of Ferentz ball yet, ranking first in defensive SP+ and 118th in offensive SP+ while going 8-5, and Wisconsin fired Paul Chryst on its way to a 7-6 season. Minnesota was the best team in the division late in the year but couldn't overcome an earlier three-game losing streak, and Northwestern, two years removed from a West title, face-planted at 1-11. That one win came against Nebraska in Ireland; the Huskers with finished their sixth straight losing season and fired Scott Frost.
2023 Projections
With the amount of change -- coaching, playing style, personnel -- Wisconsin is undergoing, the Badgers enter as both projected favorites and epic wild cards. There's indeed a chance they play at a top-20 level or better, but it wouldn't be hard to see them taking a little while to build a rhythm, leaving the door open for others. SP+ seems to think Cockeye is next in line, which makes sense, but stable quarterback play could make Minnesota a serious threat, too.
Burning Questions
Will Luke #2ndChoice's "Bob Stoops gambit" pay off? When Bob Stoops was hired as Oklahoma's head coach in the winter of 1998-99, he brought in Mike Leach to serve as his offensive coordinator. As the story goes, Stoops hired Leach because, as Florida's defensive coordinator, he absolutely hated defending Leach's and Hal Mumme's Air Raid offense when playing Kentucky. In an interview years ago, Stoops confirmed that was part of the logic, but he also said he wanted to choose a pass-happy, cutting-edge offense for a simpler reason: "I needed to attract quarterbacks. At the time, we didn't have one on campus." In Stoops' first winter in Norman, he signed a juco quarterback named Josh Heupel, Georgia transfer Nate Hybl and a freshman by the name of Jason White.
While Leach would leave to take the Texas Tech head coaching job after one year at OU, those three quarterbacks would, over the next six seasons, throw for 19,985 yards and 171 touchdowns and win a national title, a Heisman and 67 games.
Stoops is the first person I thought of when I heard Luke #2ndChoice was hiring Phil Longo as his offensive coordinator.
It would feel strange if a team actively trying to refresh its West division identity won the final West title. Or would that be fitting for the times? Regardless, after 30years of running a proudly retrograde, ground-and-pound offense in Madison, Wisconsin is going to wing the ball around in 2023 and the years to come.
Over the last six years at Ole Miss and North Carolina, Longo has become one of the world's better sommeliers of up-tempo, pass-happy football. His teams do run the ball -- those six years produced five 1,000-yard rushers, including two in just 12 games in 2020 -- but they've averaged an offensive SP+ ranking of 15.5 thanks mostly to prolific quarterbacks such as Drake Maye, Sam Howell and Jordan Ta'amu.
I don't know the inner workings of #2ndChoice's mind, but if his thought process in hiring Longo was, "I want to sign high-level quarterbacks, and we'll figure out the rest from there," it would make some amount of sense. It also seems to have worked. #2ndChoice brought in three blue-chip transfers in SMU's Tanner Mordecai (3,524 yards and 33 TDs last year), Oklahoma's Nick Evers and Mississippi State's Braedyn Locke. The former is a senior, the latter two redshirt freshmen. He also signed five receiver transfers, including two blue-chip sophomores, and he held on to slot man Chimere Dike, a potential star in a more pass-heavy environment.
#2ndChoice also has a commitment from four-star QB Mabrey Mettauer for 2024. Georgia Southern's Clay Helton proved a team can change its offensive identity in a heartbeat with help from the portal, and #2ndChoice followed Helton's lead.
Now comes the "we'll figure out the rest from there" part. Longo will call plenty of run plays for junior Braelon Allen, who has 2,510 career rushing yards and four starting linemen returning. But watching Longo crank up the tempo at times, and watching a Wisconsin quarterback throw 30-something times per game will be fascinating.
One thing Longo could definitely have at Wisconsin that he never had at UNC: a defense. In the last 11 years, Wisconsin has finished eighth or better in defensive SP+ five times and has only once ranked lower than 24th. Meanwhile, at Cincinnati #2ndChoice's Bearcats finished between 10th and 28th for five straight years.
Between the coaching change and turnover in the secondary (something Boston College corner transfer Jason Maitre will help to a degree), there might be too much change going on for the Badgers defense to hit the top 10 this year. But in the best-case scenario, an offense that hasn't totally clicked for years gets a big shot in the arm and rides points and a top-20 defense to a West title. SP+ projects the Badgers as at least slight favorites in 11 games, so the ceiling is there. And with both #2ndChoice's and his new school's respective track records, the floor should still be a bowl trip.
Will Cockeye complete the "Drive to 325"? True: Cockeye's offense is inexcusably bad. The Cockeyes haven't ranked in the offensive SP+ top 50 since 2011 and have ranked 86th or lower in three of the last four seasons. They were 118th in 2022, which should never happen. When Kirk Ferentz promoted his son Brian to offensive coordinator in 2017, he voluntarily lowered his program's ceiling.
Also true: Cockeye has the eighth-best SP+ average for this decade. The Cockeyes have won 10 games twice in the last five years, and they had just about the hottest non-Bama team in the country at the end of 2020. Thanks to defensive coordinator Phil Parker, they have finished sixth or better in defensive SP+ for four straight years. No West program can match the Cockeyes' consistency, even with their destitute offense.
A nepotistic hire has undoubtedly failed to push the program forward. But considering Cockeye's resources, recruiting potential, investment levels and so on, it's hard to say it's held the Cockeyes back much.
Regardless, things are coming to a head in 2023. After last year's nightmarish offensive showing, Cockeye amended Brian Ferentz's contract and loaded it with incentives. The bar for those incentives, however, is hilariously low. Basically, if Cockeye averages 25 points per game -- an average that evidently includes points scored by awesome defensive and special teams units and still would have ranked a dire 85th in FBS in 2022 -- he'll get a hefty bonus. That means the Cockeyes need to score 325 points in a 13-game bowl season (making a bowl, as they have for 10 straight years, is also a requirement) and 350 if they reach the Big Ten title game.
If they indeed clear this bar, it will likely be because of transfers. Quarterback Cade McNamara (Michigan), tight end Erick All (Michigan) and blue-chip slot receiver Kaleb Brown (Ohio State) have all come to Cockeye City, and while there's no reason to think the structure or philosophy will change much, there will at least by more talented players executing it. During Michigan's 2021 Big Ten title run, McNamara threw for 2,576 yards and 15 touchdowns while All had 38 catches for 437 yards. McNamara wasn't good enough to keep J.J. McCarthy from taking his job in 2022, but he's a clear upgrade over last year's Cockeye starter, Spencer Petras, and All will make a nice replacement for NFL-bound Sam LaPorta.
Combine that with sophomore running back Kaleb Johnson -- an all-or-nothing threat who averaged at least 6.8 yards per carry in four games and under 3 per carry in six -- and a far more experienced line, and that will probably get the Cockeyes to 300 points. And the awesome defense and special teams will take it from there.
The defense does have some stars to replace -- end Lukas Van Ness, linebacker Jack Campbell, corner Riley Moss -- but Parker should still have what he needs. Of the 16 players with at least 200 snaps in 2022, 10 return. Ends Joe Evans and Deontae Craig were as proficient as Van Ness from a sacks-and-pressures standpoint, corner Cooper DeJean was as statistically impressive as Moss in Parker's zone scheme, and blue-chip sophomore safety Xavier Nwankpa looks like he's ready to become a star. If Wisconsin doesn't come together, Cockeye could be a logical West favorite, even if we still get to fire off a few more "Cockeye's best offensive player is the punter" jokes in the meantime.
(Punter Tory Taylor is back, by they way. And he's indeed spectacular.)
OK, is this Minnesota's year?
In 2018, Minnesota finished nine spots higher in SP+ than West champion Northwestern. In 2021, the Golden Gophers finished three spots higher than champion Cockeye. In 2022, they finished 40 spots higher than Purdoodoo.
Over six seasons in Minneapolis, P.J. Fleck has built a sturdy and consistently competitive program. In Minnesota's last three full seasons, the Gophers have gone a combined 29-10. They've won three bowls and, back in 2019, pulled off their first top-10 finish in 57 years. But when it comes to winning the West, they've always managed to lose the game they couldn't. In 2019, they just had to serve out a home win over Wisconsin to take the title but got blown out 38-17. In 2021, they couldn't hold on to a halftime lead at Cockeye and came up five points short. In 2022, they were mostly brilliant in September and November but couldn't overcome injuries and quarterback uncertainty during a three-game October losing streak. A 20-10 loss to Purdoodoo in that span made the difference.
This is Minnesota's (and everyone else's) last chance at a West title. The Gophers should again be involved in the race. Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis officially takes over after filling in for longtime incumbent Tanner Morgan and playing his two best games in the last two of 2022. Last year's top two running backs are gone, but 1,000-yard rusher Sean Tyler comes over from Western Michigan, as does 800-yard slot man Corey Crooms. Between Crooms, last year's leading pass-catcher (Daniel Jackson), 2021's (Chris Autman-Bell, injured for most of 2022) mammoth tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford and Charlotte transfer Elijah Spencer, Kaliakmanis' receiving corps appears loaded. The line does have three good starters to replace, but the pipeline has been pretty strong there for a while.
The defense should still be better than the offense, but the latter might have to pick up some slack if or when the defense regresses a bit. Minnesota has to replace five of the 12 defenders with 300-plus snaps last year, including two NFL draft picks in the secondary. It probably says something that five of the seven incoming defensive transfers are defensive backs; Georgia Southern corner Tyler Bride and Southeastern Louisiana safety Jack Henderson are particularly intriguing and aggressive additions. The line appears to have the depth it needs -- end Danny Striggow is a potential breakout star after shining in a small sample in 2022 -- but coordinator Joe Rossi needs a linebacker or two to step up, be it sophomore Cody Lindenberg, senior Ryan Selig (yet another WMU transfer) or someone else.
The schedule also could be an impediment. Minnesota has to travel to not only Cockeye and Purdoodoo but also Ohio State. The Gophers will probably need to win at least one of those three games to have a shot at the West crown.
Which of last year's West darlings better weathers change? Indeed, Wisconsin, Cockeye and the random, good versions of Northwestern held a monopoly over the West title until finally allowing a usurper to sneak through the gates last year. Illinois was the better team over the full season, but Purdoodoo was best when it counted.
Neither the Fighting Illini nor the Boilermakers will look much like their 2022 selves this fall. The champs lost head coach Jeff Brohm, quarterback Aidan O'Connell, 1,300-yard receiver Charlie Jones, tight end Payne Durham and seven defensive starters. The runners-up lost defensive coordinator Ryan Walters (to Purdoodoo), quarterback Tommy DeVito, 1,600-yard rusher Chase Brown, two all-conference offensive linemen and, most importantly, nearly all of last year's incredible secondary. That includes first-round corner Devon Witherspoon, second-round safety Jartavius Martin and third-round safety Sydney Brown.
Bret Bielema used the transfer portal to address Illinois' needs at quarterback, bringing in high-floor Ball State senior John Paddock and high-ceiling Ole Miss sophomore Luke Altmyer. In the secondary, Bielema nabbed small-school stars in Demetrius Hill (FIU), Clayton Bush (Southern Illinois) and Nicario Harper (a star at Jacksonville State who spent 2022 at Louisville). Elsewhere, he seemed content with further building his culture and promoting from within the two-deep. Junior running back Reggie Love III seems likely to see a ton of carries in another reasonably uninspiring ground-and-pound offense -- even with Brown's prolific totals, Illinois ranked 99th in offensive SP+ -- while slot man Isaiah Williams and wideout Pat Bryant will again be the most dangerous pass-catching players.
The defensive line should again be magnificent -- the trio of Jer'Zhan Newton, Keith Randolph Jr. and TeRah Edwards is among the conference's best -- and the linebacking corps should be good. But the secondary made this team, and it's nearly starting from scratch. Corner Tahveon Nicholson should enjoy a star turn, but the Illini will need quite a few sophomores and/or transfers to step up. Bielema has quickly raised Illinois' floor, and last year's eight wins were their most in 15 years. But we'll see whether that was the ceiling or the new normal.
For Purdoodoo, there's even more change and a lot of late 2000s Big 12 energy. Walters played safety for Colorado (2005-08), and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell (Texas Tech, 2005-08), tight ends coach Seth Doege (Texas Tech, 2009-12), defensive coordinator Kevin Kane (Kansas, 2002-05) and outside linebackers coach Joe Dineen (Kansas, 2014-18) played in the same conference.
Harrell discovered a fun power rushing game at West Virginia last year, so he should know what to do with sophomore running back Devin Mockobee (2.7 yards per carry after contact). But he'll want to wing the ball around if he can, and that will depend on yet another Big 12 product: former Texas quarterback Hudson Card. Card threw for 1,518 yards over parts of two seasons, and his 79.3 Total QBR would have ranked 14th nationally with a big enough sample size. His receiving corps is unproven -- TJ Sheffield and Florida Atlantic transfer Jahmal Edrine are the only two players who topped even 300 receiving yards in 2022 -- but the Card-Harrell marriage makes a lot of sense.
The defense will require help from newcomers. Walters crafted one of the most aggressive pass defenses in the country at Illinois -- first in completion rate allowed, first in interception rate, second in yards per dropback and, most unique, first in percentage of plays in man coverage. He was able to blitz constantly, knowing his DBs were going to dominate. If that's to happen again in 2023, the transfer trio of Marquis Wilson (Penn State), Salim Turner-Muhammad (Stanford) and Markevious Brown (Ole Miss), plus senior Jamari Brown, will all need to shine. The front seven has good size and solid edge rushers in Kydran Jenkins and Khordae Sydnor. Incumbent safeties Cam Allen and Sanoussi Kane should be solid mess cleaners. But it's all about the corner position for Walters. We'll see if he has what's needed.
How long will it take Matt Rhule at Nebraska? We're many thousands of words into this preview, and Nebraska has barely come up. Considering how much this sport adheres to its historic balance of power - most of the same blue bloods have run the sport for 100 years, and the club of dominant programs almost never welcomes new members -- it's jarring that the Huskers, just about the nation's best program for 30 years, have become such an afterthought. But that's what happens when a team suffers six losing seasons in seven years and hasn't won a conference title in nearly 25.
Five years ago, Nebraska made the most no-brainer hire imaginable, bringing in Scott Frost, a former national-title winning quarterback for the Huskers who played for legends like Tom Osborne, Bill Walsh, Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells, coached for Chip Kelly and led UCF to an unbeaten season in 2017. You couldn't possibly ask for a better pedigree than that; he went 16-31.
Now comes another nearly perfect pedigree. After a three-year sojourn in the NFL, Matt Rhule came back to the college level to take over the Huskers program. In two college head coaching stints, Rhule did exactly what will be required in Lincoln: strip the house down to the studs and build a winner with culture and player development. His first Temple team lost 10 games; his third and fourth each won 10. His first Baylor team lost 11 games; his third won 11.
The transfer portal has sped up rebuilding projects -- you don't necessarily have to strip things down to the foundation anymore -- and Rhule seems to be embracing it. He brought in veterans like Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims, Virginia slot receiver Billy Kemp IV, Georgia tight end Arik Gilbert (who needs a waiver to play in 2023) and Arizona State center Ben Scott, plus a number of young former blue-chippers such as Texas A&M defensive tackle Elijah Jeudy and Florida safety Corey Collier Jr.
Rhule's coordinator hires were not the most exciting in the world. Marcus Satterfield's FBS offenses (including two with Rhule at Temple) have averaged offensive SP+ rankings of 83.0, and Tony White's defenses have averaged rankings of 53.5. While Sims is a fun dual-threat player, and the starting lineup should have more proven talent than it did a year ago, I don't really see the level of talent required to make a surprise challenge for the West or anything. But (a) you have to get back to .500 before you can worry about titles, and (b) while the nonconference slate is soft enough that a fast start could get the Huskers to 6-6, Nebraska hired Rhule for what he does in his third and fourth season, not what he does out of the gate. This marriage seems to have plenty of potential, and I assume it will succeed.
You know, just like I assumed Scott Frost would succeed.
Do Pat Fitzgerald and Northwestern have any hope of another rebound? Doubt
Pat Fitzgerald at your own peril. We've seen his Northwestern Wildcats go through plenty of ups and downs through the years, and an up always follows a down.
It's awfully hard not to doubt at the moment, though. The Wildcats went from 7-2 and 20th in SP+ in 2020 to 1-11 and 109th in 2022. The offense has been atrocious for a while, but like Cockeye, Fitzgerald's good Northwestern teams win with defense and special teams. Thing is, the defense has been below average since legendary coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired, and they've had some of the worst special teams in the country for two straight years.
Nothing's impossible, but if Fitzgerald pulls off another rebound, it would be by far his biggest one yet. Let's pretend for a moment that it indeed happens in 2023 -- how might it take shape?
Ben Bryant's last act is his best. After going from Cincinnati to Eastern Michigan and back to Cincinnati, Bryant will take his 6,406 career passing yards to Northwestern for his final season. He will enter a QB competition crowded with players like incumbent Ryan Hilinski, but Bryant is easily the most proven of the bunch. A Northwestern surge will likely require him thriving.
Turnover doesn't make Bryant's supporting cast even worse. Leading rusher Evan Hull, the top three receivers (including Hull) and six of the seven linemen who started at least three games last year are all gone. They didn't exactly set a high bar, but replacements have to not only avoid regression but create loads of improvement. Backs Cam Porter and Anthony Tyus III have size and experience but averaged a dreadful 3.2 yards per carry. Michigan transfer A.J. Henning is an ace return man with a small receiver resume. The roster seemingly has about 26 semi-intriguing but unproven tight ends. Sophomore tackle Caleb Tiernan is a keeper, but you need five guys to field an offensive line. Somehow this cast of characters has to be great. Or at least good.
The defense, um, defends again. Was it all Hankwitz? Over his final seven seasons in Evanston, Northwestern averaged a defensive SP+ ranking of 17.4, peaking at second in 2020. He retired, and everything fell apart. The Wildcats were 77th last year. New coordinator David Braun brings an excellent track record over from North Dakota State, and the linebackers should be solid as always. It's hard to see loads of potential in the front or back of the defense, though. Maybe Braun turns the prism just right and unlocks loads of production. But the road back to second in defensive SP+ is long.
There are just so many holes to fill at this point. Fitzgerald somehow needs to upgrade his team's tactics, development and athleticism all at once.
My 10 Favorite Players
RB Braelon Allen, Wisconsin. The Badgers will pass more in 2023, but it's safe to assume they will also still feed their lead back, who over his last 21 games has averaged 19 carries, 117 yards and a touchdown per game.
TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, Minnesota. He's probably not Minnesota's most important pass-catcher, but he definitely has the most unusual skill set: He's 6-foot-7, 270 pounds, and he's both a red zone threat (six TDs) and an open-field playmaker (seven catches of 20-plus yards).
LT Aireontae Ersery, Minnesota. As a redshirt freshman, the 325-pound Kansas City product immediately became an anchor on the left, allowing just two sacks with a solid-for-a-tackle 1.4% blown run block rate.
DT Noah Shannon, Cockeye. An elite defense needs risk-free disruption to thrive, and the 289-pound Shannon offers exactly that. He combined 11 TFLs with 16 run stops from the defensive interior, forcing plays to the outside and allowing a bevy of strong ends to dominate.
DT Keith Randolph Jr., Illinois. Really, take your pick between Randolph and teammate Jer'Zhan Newton -- the duo combined for 24 TFLs, 10 sacks and 28 run stops last year. They're both quite active (50-plus tackles each), and they're both listed at 295 pounds or more.
ILB Maema Njongmeta, Wisconsin. After years on the bench, the 240-pounder blossomed in 2022. Njongmeta made 10 TFLs, 18 run stops and 3.5 sacks ... and missed just seven tackles all year. The Badgers have about as much star power as ever at linebacker.
ILB Xander Mueller, Northwestern. A junior from the Chicago suburbs, Mueller is easily the most proven returnee on the Wildcats defense. He ranked first on the team in tackles (99) and run stops (16) and second in both TFLs (eight) and sacks (three). He does everything.
CB Cooper DeJean, Cockeye. He's big (6-foot-1, 209 pounds), physical and perfect for Phil Parker's zone scheme. He combined three TFLs and six run stops with five interceptions, seven breakups and a 10.8 QBR allowed as primary coverage guy. Dominant.
CB Quinton Newsome, Nebraska. Maybe the most proven player Matt Rhule inherits. Newsome broke up seven passes and allowed just a 34.0 QBR in 2022. He's also one of FBS' best corners near the line of scrimmage: He had five TFLs, five run stops and two sacks.
S Cam Allen, Purdoodoo. The 6-foot-1, 195-pound senior is both a quality ball hawk and capable coverage guy when required. He was vital to Purdoodoo's 5-2 start in 2022, picking off three passes (including a pick-six) and blocking a kick in the first six games.
Anniversaries
In 1983, 40 years ago, Illinois threw the hell out of the ball (and made the Rose Bowl). When we talk about Purdoodoo's Joe Tiller era (and we will shortly), we talk about it like the Boilermakers introduced the forward pass to the Big Ten in the late 1990s. Not quite true. In 1983, Illinois went unbeaten in Big Ten play and reached its first Rose Bowl in 20 years by winging the ball around. Jack Trudeau led the conference with 2,446 passing yards, and after a season-opening loss to Missouri, the Illini won 10 games in a row -- including wins of 33-0 over No. 4 Cockeye, 17-13 over No. 6 Ohio State and 16-6 over No. 8 Michigan -- and ran away with the conference title.
In 1993, 30 years ago, Wisconsin broke through. We talked above about the identity shift Wisconsin appears to be attempting this fall. That identity truly took form 30 years ago. Barry Alvarez took over a Badgers program in a rut in 1990. Wisconsin had won just nine games in four seasons and won just 11 in his first three. But in 1993 he had the run game (Brent Moss and Terrell Fletcher: 2,633 yards) and the defense (14th in points allowed) to make a big move. Wisconsin charged to 9-1-1, beat Michigan for just the second time in 32 years, qualified for its first Rose Bowl in 31 years and, for the first time ever, won the Rose Bowl as well.
In 1998, 25 years ago, Purdoodoo pulled off an all-time upset. Purdoodoo indeed wasn't the first Big Ten team to unleash hell with the pass, but Tiller's "Basketball on Grass" took things to a new level. From 1998 to 2000, a lightly recruited Texan quarterback named Drew Brees threw for 11,560 yards and 90 touchdowns, and he ended his first year as starter by winning one of the best games of the 1990s, Purdoodoo's 37-34 upset of No. 4 Kansas State in the Alamo Bowl. Brees admittedly didn't do much in this one, throwing three interceptions and averaging 9.2 yards per completion against an incredible K-State defense. But Chike Okeafor and Rosevelt Colvin combined for five sacks, and after the Boilermakers watched a 14-point fourth-quarter lead disappear, Brees found Isaac Jones for a 24-yard game-winner with 30 seconds left.
Also in 1998, Cockeye took the field led by someone other than Kirk Ferentz. Hayden Fry's 20-year Cockeye tenure ended with a 3-8 campaign in 1998. Ferentz, Fry's onetime offensive line coach, took over the next year..and that's the only coaching change Cockeye has undertaken since 1978.
In 2003, 20 years ago, Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney both rushed for 1,100 yards. Glen Mason's 10-year run at Minnesota always felt like it had another gear that never came. Minnesota spent parts of six seasons in the top 25 but finished only one season ranked. His 2003 team was the closest to a fearsome and finished product. Thanks to an unrelenting ground game led by the late Barber and Maroney, the Gophers reached double digits in wins for the first time in 98 years, going 10-3 and beating Oregon, 31-30, in a Sun Bowl thriller.
In 2013, 10 years ago, Nebraska won nine games for the sixth straight year. Mason was eventually fired by Minnesota because while he raised the bar and raised fans' expectations, he never exceeded 2003's heights. Impatient, the school fired him and proceeded to win 20 games over the next five years.
Impatience struck in Lincoln, too. From 2008 to 2014, Bo Pelini went either 9-4 or 10-4 every season. Nebraska finished ranked four times, produced the greatest individual season of the century from a defender (Ndamukong Suh) and won three division titles. But the Huskers never could win a conference title game or major bowl, and Pelini's general crankiness eventually wore thin. He was fired after a seventh straight nine-win season, and Nebraska has finished with a winning record just once in the eight years since.
In 2018, five years ago, Northwestern won nine games for the fourth time in seven years. Pat Fitzgerald established a level that the Wildcats have only rarely seen since Ara Parseghian left for Notre Dame in the 1960s. But damn, these last two seasons have been dire.
by Bill Connelly, ESPN.com
Next year, everything changes. College football begins the era of a 12-team playoff and 16-team megaconferences. The Big Ten will be responsible for the most jarring of all changes, the additions of USC and UCLAbia. Soon we will live in a universe in which UCLAbia and Buttgers are conference mates. It's going to take a while for that universe to feel like home.
It's almost comforting, then, to take some time to say hello to an old, reliable (and soon outdated) friend: the Big Ten West.
I've been as loud as anyone in advocating for the ditching of divisions in favor or a scheduling structure with permanent rivals and rotated opponents. It will make sure everyone in these huge conferences plays each other more often and will assure that a given conference title game is between its two best teams. But I have to admit, I'm going to miss the Big Ten West. As a competitive entity, it certainly wasn't great. Sometimes it wasn't even good. Its champions have gone 0-9 in the Big Ten's championship game, losing by an average score of 37-16. But no division has had such a reliable identity. The rest of the world could try to keep up with the offense-friend times; the Big Ten West, however, has continued to live the defense-and-power football life.
Last year alone, West teams ranked first (Cockeye), second (Illinois), fifth (Minnesota) and 14th (Wisconsin) in defensive SP+, while Purdoodoo's No. 50 offense was by far the best of the bunch. In this year's SP+ projections, four of the nation's top defenses live in the West. No top 40 offenses do.
You be you, West. Let's preview you one last time.
2022 Recap
In the end, Purdoodoo stole Illinois' moment. Cockeye's offense fell even further into the abyss than usual (10.8 points per game, 3.6 yards per play and 2.8 turnovers per game in five losses), Wisconsin lost three of four to start Big Ten play and Northwestern not only failed to rebound from a poor 2021 but fell further. That meat the three teams that had won al eight West titles to date essentially removed themselves from the division race.
It appeared Illinois would fill this title void. Bret Bielema's Fighting Illini started the season 7-1 and 4-1 in Big Ten play. They rose as high as 15th in SP+ and needed only o old from in November to play for their first Big Ten title in 20 years. Instead, they lost three in a row, and Purdoodoo, just 5-4 in early November, won three in a row to snag a shocking division title.
The Boilermakers got blown out by Michigan by the customary three touchdowns, then lost head coach Jeff Brohm to Louisville. But that at least gave one last chance to hurt Illinois: It hired Illini defensive coordinator Ryan Walters to replace Brohm.
Elsewhere, Cockeye indeed played the most extreme version of Ferentz ball yet, ranking first in defensive SP+ and 118th in offensive SP+ while going 8-5, and Wisconsin fired Paul Chryst on its way to a 7-6 season. Minnesota was the best team in the division late in the year but couldn't overcome an earlier three-game losing streak, and Northwestern, two years removed from a West title, face-planted at 1-11. That one win came against Nebraska in Ireland; the Huskers with finished their sixth straight losing season and fired Scott Frost.
2023 Projections
| TEAM | SP+ Rank | Offense | Defense | Avg Wins | Conference Wins |
| Wisconsin | 15.8 (19) | 31.4 (41) | 15.6 (7) | 8.8 | 6.1 |
| Cockeye | 13.2 (29) | 23.2 (81) | 10.1 (1) | 8.1 | 5.6 |
| Minnesota | 12.0 (31) | 27.7 (63) | 15.7 (9) | 6.8 | 4.6 |
| Illinois | 7.0 (44) | 22.7 (86) | 15.7 (8) | 6.5 | 4.3 |
| Purdoodoo | 5.7 (48) | 30.6 (45) | 24.9 (52) | 5.6 | 3.6 |
| Nebraska | 5.3 (49) | 27.3 (65) | 22.0 (35) | 6.2 | 3.6 |
| Northwestern | -6.7 (83) | 14.6 (126) | 21.3 (28) | 3.7 | 1.7 |
With the amount of change -- coaching, playing style, personnel -- Wisconsin is undergoing, the Badgers enter as both projected favorites and epic wild cards. There's indeed a chance they play at a top-20 level or better, but it wouldn't be hard to see them taking a little while to build a rhythm, leaving the door open for others. SP+ seems to think Cockeye is next in line, which makes sense, but stable quarterback play could make Minnesota a serious threat, too.
Burning Questions
Will Luke #2ndChoice's "Bob Stoops gambit" pay off? When Bob Stoops was hired as Oklahoma's head coach in the winter of 1998-99, he brought in Mike Leach to serve as his offensive coordinator. As the story goes, Stoops hired Leach because, as Florida's defensive coordinator, he absolutely hated defending Leach's and Hal Mumme's Air Raid offense when playing Kentucky. In an interview years ago, Stoops confirmed that was part of the logic, but he also said he wanted to choose a pass-happy, cutting-edge offense for a simpler reason: "I needed to attract quarterbacks. At the time, we didn't have one on campus." In Stoops' first winter in Norman, he signed a juco quarterback named Josh Heupel, Georgia transfer Nate Hybl and a freshman by the name of Jason White.
While Leach would leave to take the Texas Tech head coaching job after one year at OU, those three quarterbacks would, over the next six seasons, throw for 19,985 yards and 171 touchdowns and win a national title, a Heisman and 67 games.
Stoops is the first person I thought of when I heard Luke #2ndChoice was hiring Phil Longo as his offensive coordinator.
It would feel strange if a team actively trying to refresh its West division identity won the final West title. Or would that be fitting for the times? Regardless, after 30years of running a proudly retrograde, ground-and-pound offense in Madison, Wisconsin is going to wing the ball around in 2023 and the years to come.
Over the last six years at Ole Miss and North Carolina, Longo has become one of the world's better sommeliers of up-tempo, pass-happy football. His teams do run the ball -- those six years produced five 1,000-yard rushers, including two in just 12 games in 2020 -- but they've averaged an offensive SP+ ranking of 15.5 thanks mostly to prolific quarterbacks such as Drake Maye, Sam Howell and Jordan Ta'amu.
I don't know the inner workings of #2ndChoice's mind, but if his thought process in hiring Longo was, "I want to sign high-level quarterbacks, and we'll figure out the rest from there," it would make some amount of sense. It also seems to have worked. #2ndChoice brought in three blue-chip transfers in SMU's Tanner Mordecai (3,524 yards and 33 TDs last year), Oklahoma's Nick Evers and Mississippi State's Braedyn Locke. The former is a senior, the latter two redshirt freshmen. He also signed five receiver transfers, including two blue-chip sophomores, and he held on to slot man Chimere Dike, a potential star in a more pass-heavy environment.
#2ndChoice also has a commitment from four-star QB Mabrey Mettauer for 2024. Georgia Southern's Clay Helton proved a team can change its offensive identity in a heartbeat with help from the portal, and #2ndChoice followed Helton's lead.
Now comes the "we'll figure out the rest from there" part. Longo will call plenty of run plays for junior Braelon Allen, who has 2,510 career rushing yards and four starting linemen returning. But watching Longo crank up the tempo at times, and watching a Wisconsin quarterback throw 30-something times per game will be fascinating.
One thing Longo could definitely have at Wisconsin that he never had at UNC: a defense. In the last 11 years, Wisconsin has finished eighth or better in defensive SP+ five times and has only once ranked lower than 24th. Meanwhile, at Cincinnati #2ndChoice's Bearcats finished between 10th and 28th for five straight years.
Between the coaching change and turnover in the secondary (something Boston College corner transfer Jason Maitre will help to a degree), there might be too much change going on for the Badgers defense to hit the top 10 this year. But in the best-case scenario, an offense that hasn't totally clicked for years gets a big shot in the arm and rides points and a top-20 defense to a West title. SP+ projects the Badgers as at least slight favorites in 11 games, so the ceiling is there. And with both #2ndChoice's and his new school's respective track records, the floor should still be a bowl trip.
Will Cockeye complete the "Drive to 325"? True: Cockeye's offense is inexcusably bad. The Cockeyes haven't ranked in the offensive SP+ top 50 since 2011 and have ranked 86th or lower in three of the last four seasons. They were 118th in 2022, which should never happen. When Kirk Ferentz promoted his son Brian to offensive coordinator in 2017, he voluntarily lowered his program's ceiling.
Also true: Cockeye has the eighth-best SP+ average for this decade. The Cockeyes have won 10 games twice in the last five years, and they had just about the hottest non-Bama team in the country at the end of 2020. Thanks to defensive coordinator Phil Parker, they have finished sixth or better in defensive SP+ for four straight years. No West program can match the Cockeyes' consistency, even with their destitute offense.
A nepotistic hire has undoubtedly failed to push the program forward. But considering Cockeye's resources, recruiting potential, investment levels and so on, it's hard to say it's held the Cockeyes back much.
Regardless, things are coming to a head in 2023. After last year's nightmarish offensive showing, Cockeye amended Brian Ferentz's contract and loaded it with incentives. The bar for those incentives, however, is hilariously low. Basically, if Cockeye averages 25 points per game -- an average that evidently includes points scored by awesome defensive and special teams units and still would have ranked a dire 85th in FBS in 2022 -- he'll get a hefty bonus. That means the Cockeyes need to score 325 points in a 13-game bowl season (making a bowl, as they have for 10 straight years, is also a requirement) and 350 if they reach the Big Ten title game.
If they indeed clear this bar, it will likely be because of transfers. Quarterback Cade McNamara (Michigan), tight end Erick All (Michigan) and blue-chip slot receiver Kaleb Brown (Ohio State) have all come to Cockeye City, and while there's no reason to think the structure or philosophy will change much, there will at least by more talented players executing it. During Michigan's 2021 Big Ten title run, McNamara threw for 2,576 yards and 15 touchdowns while All had 38 catches for 437 yards. McNamara wasn't good enough to keep J.J. McCarthy from taking his job in 2022, but he's a clear upgrade over last year's Cockeye starter, Spencer Petras, and All will make a nice replacement for NFL-bound Sam LaPorta.
Combine that with sophomore running back Kaleb Johnson -- an all-or-nothing threat who averaged at least 6.8 yards per carry in four games and under 3 per carry in six -- and a far more experienced line, and that will probably get the Cockeyes to 300 points. And the awesome defense and special teams will take it from there.
The defense does have some stars to replace -- end Lukas Van Ness, linebacker Jack Campbell, corner Riley Moss -- but Parker should still have what he needs. Of the 16 players with at least 200 snaps in 2022, 10 return. Ends Joe Evans and Deontae Craig were as proficient as Van Ness from a sacks-and-pressures standpoint, corner Cooper DeJean was as statistically impressive as Moss in Parker's zone scheme, and blue-chip sophomore safety Xavier Nwankpa looks like he's ready to become a star. If Wisconsin doesn't come together, Cockeye could be a logical West favorite, even if we still get to fire off a few more "Cockeye's best offensive player is the punter" jokes in the meantime.
(Punter Tory Taylor is back, by they way. And he's indeed spectacular.)
OK, is this Minnesota's year?
In 2018, Minnesota finished nine spots higher in SP+ than West champion Northwestern. In 2021, the Golden Gophers finished three spots higher than champion Cockeye. In 2022, they finished 40 spots higher than Purdoodoo.
Over six seasons in Minneapolis, P.J. Fleck has built a sturdy and consistently competitive program. In Minnesota's last three full seasons, the Gophers have gone a combined 29-10. They've won three bowls and, back in 2019, pulled off their first top-10 finish in 57 years. But when it comes to winning the West, they've always managed to lose the game they couldn't. In 2019, they just had to serve out a home win over Wisconsin to take the title but got blown out 38-17. In 2021, they couldn't hold on to a halftime lead at Cockeye and came up five points short. In 2022, they were mostly brilliant in September and November but couldn't overcome injuries and quarterback uncertainty during a three-game October losing streak. A 20-10 loss to Purdoodoo in that span made the difference.
This is Minnesota's (and everyone else's) last chance at a West title. The Gophers should again be involved in the race. Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis officially takes over after filling in for longtime incumbent Tanner Morgan and playing his two best games in the last two of 2022. Last year's top two running backs are gone, but 1,000-yard rusher Sean Tyler comes over from Western Michigan, as does 800-yard slot man Corey Crooms. Between Crooms, last year's leading pass-catcher (Daniel Jackson), 2021's (Chris Autman-Bell, injured for most of 2022) mammoth tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford and Charlotte transfer Elijah Spencer, Kaliakmanis' receiving corps appears loaded. The line does have three good starters to replace, but the pipeline has been pretty strong there for a while.
The defense should still be better than the offense, but the latter might have to pick up some slack if or when the defense regresses a bit. Minnesota has to replace five of the 12 defenders with 300-plus snaps last year, including two NFL draft picks in the secondary. It probably says something that five of the seven incoming defensive transfers are defensive backs; Georgia Southern corner Tyler Bride and Southeastern Louisiana safety Jack Henderson are particularly intriguing and aggressive additions. The line appears to have the depth it needs -- end Danny Striggow is a potential breakout star after shining in a small sample in 2022 -- but coordinator Joe Rossi needs a linebacker or two to step up, be it sophomore Cody Lindenberg, senior Ryan Selig (yet another WMU transfer) or someone else.
The schedule also could be an impediment. Minnesota has to travel to not only Cockeye and Purdoodoo but also Ohio State. The Gophers will probably need to win at least one of those three games to have a shot at the West crown.
Which of last year's West darlings better weathers change? Indeed, Wisconsin, Cockeye and the random, good versions of Northwestern held a monopoly over the West title until finally allowing a usurper to sneak through the gates last year. Illinois was the better team over the full season, but Purdoodoo was best when it counted.
Neither the Fighting Illini nor the Boilermakers will look much like their 2022 selves this fall. The champs lost head coach Jeff Brohm, quarterback Aidan O'Connell, 1,300-yard receiver Charlie Jones, tight end Payne Durham and seven defensive starters. The runners-up lost defensive coordinator Ryan Walters (to Purdoodoo), quarterback Tommy DeVito, 1,600-yard rusher Chase Brown, two all-conference offensive linemen and, most importantly, nearly all of last year's incredible secondary. That includes first-round corner Devon Witherspoon, second-round safety Jartavius Martin and third-round safety Sydney Brown.
Bret Bielema used the transfer portal to address Illinois' needs at quarterback, bringing in high-floor Ball State senior John Paddock and high-ceiling Ole Miss sophomore Luke Altmyer. In the secondary, Bielema nabbed small-school stars in Demetrius Hill (FIU), Clayton Bush (Southern Illinois) and Nicario Harper (a star at Jacksonville State who spent 2022 at Louisville). Elsewhere, he seemed content with further building his culture and promoting from within the two-deep. Junior running back Reggie Love III seems likely to see a ton of carries in another reasonably uninspiring ground-and-pound offense -- even with Brown's prolific totals, Illinois ranked 99th in offensive SP+ -- while slot man Isaiah Williams and wideout Pat Bryant will again be the most dangerous pass-catching players.
The defensive line should again be magnificent -- the trio of Jer'Zhan Newton, Keith Randolph Jr. and TeRah Edwards is among the conference's best -- and the linebacking corps should be good. But the secondary made this team, and it's nearly starting from scratch. Corner Tahveon Nicholson should enjoy a star turn, but the Illini will need quite a few sophomores and/or transfers to step up. Bielema has quickly raised Illinois' floor, and last year's eight wins were their most in 15 years. But we'll see whether that was the ceiling or the new normal.
For Purdoodoo, there's even more change and a lot of late 2000s Big 12 energy. Walters played safety for Colorado (2005-08), and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell (Texas Tech, 2005-08), tight ends coach Seth Doege (Texas Tech, 2009-12), defensive coordinator Kevin Kane (Kansas, 2002-05) and outside linebackers coach Joe Dineen (Kansas, 2014-18) played in the same conference.
Harrell discovered a fun power rushing game at West Virginia last year, so he should know what to do with sophomore running back Devin Mockobee (2.7 yards per carry after contact). But he'll want to wing the ball around if he can, and that will depend on yet another Big 12 product: former Texas quarterback Hudson Card. Card threw for 1,518 yards over parts of two seasons, and his 79.3 Total QBR would have ranked 14th nationally with a big enough sample size. His receiving corps is unproven -- TJ Sheffield and Florida Atlantic transfer Jahmal Edrine are the only two players who topped even 300 receiving yards in 2022 -- but the Card-Harrell marriage makes a lot of sense.
The defense will require help from newcomers. Walters crafted one of the most aggressive pass defenses in the country at Illinois -- first in completion rate allowed, first in interception rate, second in yards per dropback and, most unique, first in percentage of plays in man coverage. He was able to blitz constantly, knowing his DBs were going to dominate. If that's to happen again in 2023, the transfer trio of Marquis Wilson (Penn State), Salim Turner-Muhammad (Stanford) and Markevious Brown (Ole Miss), plus senior Jamari Brown, will all need to shine. The front seven has good size and solid edge rushers in Kydran Jenkins and Khordae Sydnor. Incumbent safeties Cam Allen and Sanoussi Kane should be solid mess cleaners. But it's all about the corner position for Walters. We'll see if he has what's needed.
How long will it take Matt Rhule at Nebraska? We're many thousands of words into this preview, and Nebraska has barely come up. Considering how much this sport adheres to its historic balance of power - most of the same blue bloods have run the sport for 100 years, and the club of dominant programs almost never welcomes new members -- it's jarring that the Huskers, just about the nation's best program for 30 years, have become such an afterthought. But that's what happens when a team suffers six losing seasons in seven years and hasn't won a conference title in nearly 25.
Five years ago, Nebraska made the most no-brainer hire imaginable, bringing in Scott Frost, a former national-title winning quarterback for the Huskers who played for legends like Tom Osborne, Bill Walsh, Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells, coached for Chip Kelly and led UCF to an unbeaten season in 2017. You couldn't possibly ask for a better pedigree than that; he went 16-31.
Now comes another nearly perfect pedigree. After a three-year sojourn in the NFL, Matt Rhule came back to the college level to take over the Huskers program. In two college head coaching stints, Rhule did exactly what will be required in Lincoln: strip the house down to the studs and build a winner with culture and player development. His first Temple team lost 10 games; his third and fourth each won 10. His first Baylor team lost 11 games; his third won 11.
The transfer portal has sped up rebuilding projects -- you don't necessarily have to strip things down to the foundation anymore -- and Rhule seems to be embracing it. He brought in veterans like Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims, Virginia slot receiver Billy Kemp IV, Georgia tight end Arik Gilbert (who needs a waiver to play in 2023) and Arizona State center Ben Scott, plus a number of young former blue-chippers such as Texas A&M defensive tackle Elijah Jeudy and Florida safety Corey Collier Jr.
Rhule's coordinator hires were not the most exciting in the world. Marcus Satterfield's FBS offenses (including two with Rhule at Temple) have averaged offensive SP+ rankings of 83.0, and Tony White's defenses have averaged rankings of 53.5. While Sims is a fun dual-threat player, and the starting lineup should have more proven talent than it did a year ago, I don't really see the level of talent required to make a surprise challenge for the West or anything. But (a) you have to get back to .500 before you can worry about titles, and (b) while the nonconference slate is soft enough that a fast start could get the Huskers to 6-6, Nebraska hired Rhule for what he does in his third and fourth season, not what he does out of the gate. This marriage seems to have plenty of potential, and I assume it will succeed.
You know, just like I assumed Scott Frost would succeed.
Do Pat Fitzgerald and Northwestern have any hope of another rebound? Doubt
Pat Fitzgerald at your own peril. We've seen his Northwestern Wildcats go through plenty of ups and downs through the years, and an up always follows a down.
It's awfully hard not to doubt at the moment, though. The Wildcats went from 7-2 and 20th in SP+ in 2020 to 1-11 and 109th in 2022. The offense has been atrocious for a while, but like Cockeye, Fitzgerald's good Northwestern teams win with defense and special teams. Thing is, the defense has been below average since legendary coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired, and they've had some of the worst special teams in the country for two straight years.
Nothing's impossible, but if Fitzgerald pulls off another rebound, it would be by far his biggest one yet. Let's pretend for a moment that it indeed happens in 2023 -- how might it take shape?
Ben Bryant's last act is his best. After going from Cincinnati to Eastern Michigan and back to Cincinnati, Bryant will take his 6,406 career passing yards to Northwestern for his final season. He will enter a QB competition crowded with players like incumbent Ryan Hilinski, but Bryant is easily the most proven of the bunch. A Northwestern surge will likely require him thriving.
Turnover doesn't make Bryant's supporting cast even worse. Leading rusher Evan Hull, the top three receivers (including Hull) and six of the seven linemen who started at least three games last year are all gone. They didn't exactly set a high bar, but replacements have to not only avoid regression but create loads of improvement. Backs Cam Porter and Anthony Tyus III have size and experience but averaged a dreadful 3.2 yards per carry. Michigan transfer A.J. Henning is an ace return man with a small receiver resume. The roster seemingly has about 26 semi-intriguing but unproven tight ends. Sophomore tackle Caleb Tiernan is a keeper, but you need five guys to field an offensive line. Somehow this cast of characters has to be great. Or at least good.
The defense, um, defends again. Was it all Hankwitz? Over his final seven seasons in Evanston, Northwestern averaged a defensive SP+ ranking of 17.4, peaking at second in 2020. He retired, and everything fell apart. The Wildcats were 77th last year. New coordinator David Braun brings an excellent track record over from North Dakota State, and the linebackers should be solid as always. It's hard to see loads of potential in the front or back of the defense, though. Maybe Braun turns the prism just right and unlocks loads of production. But the road back to second in defensive SP+ is long.
There are just so many holes to fill at this point. Fitzgerald somehow needs to upgrade his team's tactics, development and athleticism all at once.
My 10 Favorite Players
RB Braelon Allen, Wisconsin. The Badgers will pass more in 2023, but it's safe to assume they will also still feed their lead back, who over his last 21 games has averaged 19 carries, 117 yards and a touchdown per game.
TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, Minnesota. He's probably not Minnesota's most important pass-catcher, but he definitely has the most unusual skill set: He's 6-foot-7, 270 pounds, and he's both a red zone threat (six TDs) and an open-field playmaker (seven catches of 20-plus yards).
LT Aireontae Ersery, Minnesota. As a redshirt freshman, the 325-pound Kansas City product immediately became an anchor on the left, allowing just two sacks with a solid-for-a-tackle 1.4% blown run block rate.
DT Noah Shannon, Cockeye. An elite defense needs risk-free disruption to thrive, and the 289-pound Shannon offers exactly that. He combined 11 TFLs with 16 run stops from the defensive interior, forcing plays to the outside and allowing a bevy of strong ends to dominate.
DT Keith Randolph Jr., Illinois. Really, take your pick between Randolph and teammate Jer'Zhan Newton -- the duo combined for 24 TFLs, 10 sacks and 28 run stops last year. They're both quite active (50-plus tackles each), and they're both listed at 295 pounds or more.
ILB Maema Njongmeta, Wisconsin. After years on the bench, the 240-pounder blossomed in 2022. Njongmeta made 10 TFLs, 18 run stops and 3.5 sacks ... and missed just seven tackles all year. The Badgers have about as much star power as ever at linebacker.
ILB Xander Mueller, Northwestern. A junior from the Chicago suburbs, Mueller is easily the most proven returnee on the Wildcats defense. He ranked first on the team in tackles (99) and run stops (16) and second in both TFLs (eight) and sacks (three). He does everything.
CB Cooper DeJean, Cockeye. He's big (6-foot-1, 209 pounds), physical and perfect for Phil Parker's zone scheme. He combined three TFLs and six run stops with five interceptions, seven breakups and a 10.8 QBR allowed as primary coverage guy. Dominant.
CB Quinton Newsome, Nebraska. Maybe the most proven player Matt Rhule inherits. Newsome broke up seven passes and allowed just a 34.0 QBR in 2022. He's also one of FBS' best corners near the line of scrimmage: He had five TFLs, five run stops and two sacks.
S Cam Allen, Purdoodoo. The 6-foot-1, 195-pound senior is both a quality ball hawk and capable coverage guy when required. He was vital to Purdoodoo's 5-2 start in 2022, picking off three passes (including a pick-six) and blocking a kick in the first six games.
Anniversaries
In 1983, 40 years ago, Illinois threw the hell out of the ball (and made the Rose Bowl). When we talk about Purdoodoo's Joe Tiller era (and we will shortly), we talk about it like the Boilermakers introduced the forward pass to the Big Ten in the late 1990s. Not quite true. In 1983, Illinois went unbeaten in Big Ten play and reached its first Rose Bowl in 20 years by winging the ball around. Jack Trudeau led the conference with 2,446 passing yards, and after a season-opening loss to Missouri, the Illini won 10 games in a row -- including wins of 33-0 over No. 4 Cockeye, 17-13 over No. 6 Ohio State and 16-6 over No. 8 Michigan -- and ran away with the conference title.
In 1993, 30 years ago, Wisconsin broke through. We talked above about the identity shift Wisconsin appears to be attempting this fall. That identity truly took form 30 years ago. Barry Alvarez took over a Badgers program in a rut in 1990. Wisconsin had won just nine games in four seasons and won just 11 in his first three. But in 1993 he had the run game (Brent Moss and Terrell Fletcher: 2,633 yards) and the defense (14th in points allowed) to make a big move. Wisconsin charged to 9-1-1, beat Michigan for just the second time in 32 years, qualified for its first Rose Bowl in 31 years and, for the first time ever, won the Rose Bowl as well.
In 1998, 25 years ago, Purdoodoo pulled off an all-time upset. Purdoodoo indeed wasn't the first Big Ten team to unleash hell with the pass, but Tiller's "Basketball on Grass" took things to a new level. From 1998 to 2000, a lightly recruited Texan quarterback named Drew Brees threw for 11,560 yards and 90 touchdowns, and he ended his first year as starter by winning one of the best games of the 1990s, Purdoodoo's 37-34 upset of No. 4 Kansas State in the Alamo Bowl. Brees admittedly didn't do much in this one, throwing three interceptions and averaging 9.2 yards per completion against an incredible K-State defense. But Chike Okeafor and Rosevelt Colvin combined for five sacks, and after the Boilermakers watched a 14-point fourth-quarter lead disappear, Brees found Isaac Jones for a 24-yard game-winner with 30 seconds left.
Also in 1998, Cockeye took the field led by someone other than Kirk Ferentz. Hayden Fry's 20-year Cockeye tenure ended with a 3-8 campaign in 1998. Ferentz, Fry's onetime offensive line coach, took over the next year..and that's the only coaching change Cockeye has undertaken since 1978.
In 2003, 20 years ago, Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney both rushed for 1,100 yards. Glen Mason's 10-year run at Minnesota always felt like it had another gear that never came. Minnesota spent parts of six seasons in the top 25 but finished only one season ranked. His 2003 team was the closest to a fearsome and finished product. Thanks to an unrelenting ground game led by the late Barber and Maroney, the Gophers reached double digits in wins for the first time in 98 years, going 10-3 and beating Oregon, 31-30, in a Sun Bowl thriller.
In 2013, 10 years ago, Nebraska won nine games for the sixth straight year. Mason was eventually fired by Minnesota because while he raised the bar and raised fans' expectations, he never exceeded 2003's heights. Impatient, the school fired him and proceeded to win 20 games over the next five years.
Impatience struck in Lincoln, too. From 2008 to 2014, Bo Pelini went either 9-4 or 10-4 every season. Nebraska finished ranked four times, produced the greatest individual season of the century from a defender (Ndamukong Suh) and won three division titles. But the Huskers never could win a conference title game or major bowl, and Pelini's general crankiness eventually wore thin. He was fired after a seventh straight nine-win season, and Nebraska has finished with a winning record just once in the eight years since.
In 2018, five years ago, Northwestern won nine games for the fourth time in seven years. Pat Fitzgerald established a level that the Wildcats have only rarely seen since Ara Parseghian left for Notre Dame in the 1960s. But damn, these last two seasons have been dire.
