Big Ten football roundtable: Ohio State's abundance, a competitive West division and more
Our Big Ten beat writers look ahead to the top storylines, games and breakout players and make their picks on the league champion.
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Big Ten Football: Not overthinking Ohio State, where Michigan fits, Scott Frost under pressure
by The Athletic College Football Staff
Big Ten football is back. An eventful summer, headlined by the upcoming addition of USC and UCLA to the league, and the wait for an announcement with details of a billion-dollar multimedia rights deal have given way temporarily to sweaty preseason practice sessions at 14 campus sites this month.
The chance for an early leg up in the West Division is on tap first, as Nebraska and Northwestern clash next week in Dublin, Ireland.
Soon, they'll all be playing. Storylines abound in 2022 -- from the bid of Michigan to repeat as champion to the abundance of stars, as usual, at Ohio State, impact newcomers everywhere and a schedule that offers big names in big games.
Here's our Big Ten beat writers' roundtable to preview the season ahead.
What storyline are you most eager to follow?
Scott Dochterman (Cockeye beat writer): I'm most intrigued by the Michigan State-Penn State dynamic. Both programs gave their coaches monstrous contracts this offseason but whichever team comes in fourth in the East -- especially with a few non-divisional losses -- could have a fan base spending an entire offseason with buyer's remorse.
Jesse Temple (Wisconsin beat writer): Which team will merge from what should be a competitive Big Ten West this year? Wisconsin hasn't gone three straight years without a West title since the divisional split in 2014. But Cockeye and Minnesota expect to have plenty to say on the matter. Purdue, meanwhile, quietly won six games in the league last season. It feels like another year of parity.
Mitch Sherman (Nebraska beat writer): The coaching hot seat. It's plenty warm in my backyard, with Nebraska's Scott Frost facing a big buyout reduction on Oct. 1 and pressure all around after four consecutive losing seasons in Lincoln. Is the Big Ten about to break free from its recently quiet ride on the coaching carousel? Just one job has changed hands since Michigan State hired Mel Tucker in February 2020.
Audrey Snyder (Penn State beat writer): Penn State very much feels like a team in transition, albeit with sixth-year quarterback Sean Clifford. Whether Penn State looks more like the team that opened 5-0 last season or the one that lost six of its last eight is a mystery. This could be a Top 25 team or it could be another seven-win season, and I wouldn't be surprised either way. If it's the latter, good luck explaining the result to a fan base that's already on edge after going 11-11 since the start of the 2020 season.
Austin Meek (Michigan beat writer): Michigan-Ohio State gets more national hype, but the Michigan-Michigan State rivalry has become just as fascinating. Michigan State was the only Big Ten team to knock off the Wolverines last season, giving Tucker a 2-0 record against Jim Harbaugh. After breakthrough seasons for the Wolverines and Spartans last year, I'm curious which program emerges from 2022 with the upper hand.
Which nonconference game are you most looking forward to?
Sherman: I'm supposed to say Oklahoma at Nebraska on Sept. 17, and I have no problem with that answer. The Sooners' first trip to Lincoln since 2009 might be worth the wait. It's an intriguing year for both former Big 12 programs. What's that, Oklahoma remains in the Big 12? Whatever. Coach Brent Venables is starting anew, and the Huskers played OU close last year in Norman, losing 23-16. Welcome to town, FOX and Big Noon Kickoff.
Dochterman: Notre Dame at Ohio State has all the makings of a potential Big Ten championship matchup.....in 2025? That Sept. 3 game will determine what kind of season awaits. If the Irish pull off a stunner, they could have one of those Disney fast-track passes to the College Football Playoff. But a dominant Ohio State win establishes the Buckeyes as the national co-favorite alongside Alabama.
Meek: Michigan-Hawaii, anyone?
Temple: I don't know how there's any other answer but Ohio State-Notre Dame. Talk about coming out strong. A night game in Columbus with two potential Playoff teams? Let's just say it's a heck of a lot more intriguing than most nonconference games on the schedule.
Snyder: Sandwiched between games against Ohio and Central Michigan, Penn State's trip to Auburn will be a nice change of pace. The Nittany Lions haven't played an SEC opponent in the regular season on the road since visiting Alabama in 2010. Penn State likely will be 3-0, 2-1 or 1-2 after playing at Purdue, against Ohio and at Auburn, and I have no clue which one it'll be.
Which conference game are you most looking forward to?
Temple: The Game between Ohio State and Michigan on Nov. 26 at the Horseshoe could once again have epic implications. Michigan finally broke through and won the Big Ten title last year on the way to the Playoff after beating the Buckeyes in the regular-season finale. Both teams enter the season in the Top 10, but Ohio State is the runaway preseason favorite to capture the East Division.
Snyder: Ohio State comes to Beaver Stadium this year, but the game is not a White Out (PSU is going with a White Out for a night game versus Minnesota instead). I can't write this one off because of how well Penn State plays Ohio State in even years when it should get waxed. State College will be juiced regardless of what time this one kicks.
Dochterman: I know, I saw Michigan pulverize Cockeye in Indy last year. But against top-ranked teams at Kinnick, the Cockeyes are like a calloused construction worker on a barstool itching for a fight. The bigger you are, the tougher they are. Since 2008, Cockeye is 5-1 against top-five competition at home, and Michigan hasn't won in Cockeye City since 2005. So the Oct. 1 fistfight tops my agenda.
Sherman: I was tempted to pick Wisconsin at Ohio State on Sept. 24, really, it's got to be a game I'm set to attend. So let's go with Nebraska at Michigan on Nov. 12. The trip marks the second game of a tough November stretch for the Huskers -- but also another opportunity in a season stuffed with them for Frost, whose team lost to the Big Ten champion Wolverines 32-29 last year.
Meek: It has to be Michigan at Ohio State for me. There are too many juicy storylines: the 2020 cancellation, the Buckeyes looking for payback, Harbaugh's "born on third base" quote versus Ryan Day hanging a hundred, plus likely Playoff implications for one or both teams. Somehow this will be my first game at the Horseshoe in four years on the Michigan beat, so there's some extra anticipation.
Who is your breakout player to watch?
Meek: Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Someone has to replace Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba can't catch everything, right? Harrison was No. 2 on Bruce Feldman's Freaks List and looks like the next great Ohio State wide receiver.
Dochterman: I'm going to go on the defensive here. Cockeye sophomore defensive end Lukas Van Ness has a shot at leading the Big Ten in sacks. He posted seven last year as a rotational defensive tackle and is a cut-up athletic marvel at 6-foot-5 and 270 pounds with the nickname Hercules for a reason.
Temple: Quarterback Casey Thompson isn't new to college football, but he is new to the Big Ten as a transfer from Texas to Nebraska. Thompson threw for 2,113 yards and 24 touchdowns last season for the Longhorns while starting the final 10 games. He said the thumb injury that hampered him last season is no longer an issue.
Snyder: I'm picking someone who may not even win his own QB competition, but hear me out: Rutgers QB Gavin Wimsatt. Wimsatt enrolled last September and is the QB of the future. As a former four-star prospect, there's a lot of optimism surrounding him. If he becomes the guy -- or even if he takes the reins later in the season -- Rutgers will have a revamped O-line and a QB to start building around.
Sherman: Same story here, Audrey. Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak remains mired in competition with senior two-game returning starter Jack Tuttle at Indiana. I've got Bazelak to get the nod when the Hoosiers open against Illinois two weeks from Friday. He threw for 2,500 yards and 16 touchdowns in earning co-SEC Freshman of the Year recognition in 2020.
Which true freshman will make the biggest impact?
Dochterman: Penn State running back Nick Singleton will be the Nittany Lions' future; can he be the present, too? After watching Ohio State's TreVeyon Henderson and Wisconsin's Braelon Allen terrorize Big Ten defenses as true freshmen last year, I see no reason why Singleton couldn't, too, provided the blocking is there.
Temple: Ohio State linebacker C.J. Hicks was a five-star signee and the No. 1 linebacker in the 247Sports Composite. Ohio State's Ryan Day has said he doesn't think of Hicks, an early enrollee last winter, as a freshman anymore.
Sherman: Tough to pick a defensive back over an offensive skill player, so I'll take two -- Cockeye safety Xavier Nwankpa and Michigan corner Will Johnson. Nwankpa was a top-60 prospect nationally from outside Des Moines, and Johnson came to Ann Arbor as a five-star talent from near Detroit. They represent the next generation of Big Ten stars in the secondary.
Snyder: The hype surrounding Singleton already this preseason reminds me of what was said about Saquon Barkley when he entered his freshman year. Singleton, the reigning Gatorade National Player of the Year, is physically impressive and in a backfield that was full of lackluster performances and poor offensive line play last year. It's very possible Singleton becomes the lead back at some point this season.
Meek: I'm going to throw a dart and pick Dasan McCullough from Indiana. At No. 75 in the 247Sports Composite rankings, he's the highest-rated recruit to sign with the Hoosiers in the era of recruiting rankings. He could have a role right away as a third-down pass rusher, and if he's as good as advertised, don't be surprised if he ends up playing significant snaps for a team without a ton of depth.
Who will be the conference offensive player of the year?
Sherman: I saw all that I needed from C.J. Stroud at Ohio State's pro day in March. He's the guy. Note, though, that Buckeyes running back Henderson is my dark-horse pick to win the Heisman Trophy.
Dochterman: From about 2012 onward, we could just write Ohio State quarterback [insert name] for this question. That's true this year, too. Stroud put up some outrageous numbers in the Rose Bowl (as did Smith-Njigba) and should do the same this year, even against one of the nation's toughest schedules.
Temple: Stroud was the Big Ten offensive player of the year, quarterback of the year and freshman of the year in 2021 while finishing fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting. He's a safe bet to repeat as the best offensive player in the league.
Snyder: Stroud with a h/t to Smith-Njigba.
Meek: Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV.
Who will be the conference defensive player of the year?
Dochterman: Cockeye middle linebacker Jack Campbell led the country last year with 143 stops. He had a pick six and a fumble return, plus forced a goal-line fumble that went for a touchback. He’s long (6-5, 249), athletic and a difference-maker in both pass defense and against the run.
Temple: Wisconsin outside linebacker Nick Herbig led all Big Ten underclassmen with nine sacks last season. He also posted a higher pass-rushing grade than previous first-team All-America Badgers outside linebackers Joe Schobert and T.J. Watt. Herbig will be a menace off the edge.
Meek: No team leans on its defense more than Cockeye. That makes Campbell the choice, though Herbig could overtake him if Wisconsin ends up winning the West.
Sherman: This is an offense-heavy year in the Big Ten, with eight of 10 who received preseason honors from the league playing offense. I’ll take Campbell over his Cockeye teammate, cornerback Riley Moss.
Snyder: Either of those West selections at linebacker likely will star, but I’m keeping my pick in the East: Ohio State DE Zach Harrison. Larry Johnson’s rushmen just keep rolling, and they’ll need Harrison to be even more disruptive if he’s going to prove me right. After eight tackles for loss, four sacks, four pass breakups and two forced fumbles last year, there’s still more ahead for the former five-star prospect.
Which team could be a sleeper conference championship/New Year's Six contender?
Snyder: Aidan O'Connell and Purdue are my sleeper pick to represent the West in the Big Ten title game. It's been stressed to Penn State's players already that the Thursday night season opener in West Lafayette won't be easy. Still, anyone trying to get past Ohio State and into the Playoff will need to catch lightning in a bottle, and I struggle to see that happening.
Dochterman: I see this as ruling out the six traditional contenders (Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Cockeye, Wisconsin), so that leaves me with either Minnesota or Purdue in the West. If the Gophers can adequately replace their offensive line departures from last year, they could end up in Indianapolis and beat their border foes in the process. So, Ski-U-Mah.
Meek: Minnesota was my pick to win the Big Ten West, which would put the Gophers in the mix for a New Year's Six bowl if they can avoid another bad nonconference loss. The Gophers "Encore Four" -- quarterback Tanner Morgan, running back Mohamed Ibrahim, wide receiver Chris Autman-Bell and center John Michael Schmitz -- make Minnesota's offense one of the most experienced in the league. Plus, there's no Bowling Green on the schedule this year.
Temple: Given how difficult it appears to be to breakthrough in the East ahead of the typical power programs, I'll take a school in the West. Purdue is coming off its first nine-win season since 2003 and beat Tennessee in the Music City Bowl.
Sherman: In total agreement that the East is too strong at the top for Maryland to reach nine wins. So give me the Gophers.
Which team will win the conference championship?
Temple: I’d be surprised if it’s any team other than Ohio State. Having a Heisman-caliber starting quarterback is a good place to start, and plenty of talent surrounds him.
Dochterman: I wouldn’t have any problem if Ohio State skipped the Big Ten title game and vaulted to the Playoff so we could see the East’s No. 2 team play the West champion. But since that’s not an option, I’ll go with the Buckeyes for the sixth time in nine years, this time over Cockeye.
Snyder: Ohio State.
Meek: Ohio State.
Sherman: Buckeyes.
