It was a wild Tuesday to begin conference tournaments. So, which teams helped or hurt their postseason cases for hosts and at-large bids? We have the scoop.
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Postseason Buzz: How Tuesday's Action Impacted Tourney Picture
It was a wild first day of conference tournament action around the country, and everyone wants to know how the action changed the postseason picture for national seeds and hosts, plus teams squarely on the bubble.
The good news? We have the answer. Here’s our postseason buzz following Tuesday’s action:
National Seed / Host Watch
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Mississippi State entered Tuesday’s action as the No. 17 team on our list for Top 16 national seeds and hosts, and the Bulldogs certainly kept their hosting hopes alive with a walk-off, 2-1, win over Ole Miss — that win, by the way, eliminated the Rebels from postseason contention. The Bulldogs are up a couple of spots in the RPI to 21 and are 18-13 in the SEC aggregate. The Bulldogs probably need another win here in Hoover to put themselves in position to host, and they have a golden opportunity on Wednesday against No. 1 RPI Texas A&M.
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Georgia was our No. 8 national seed entering Tuesday’s action, but with the loss to LSU, the Bulldogs are down one spot in the RPI to 7, just ahead of Florida State, Virginia and others. For Wednesday, we’re keeping the Bulldogs as the no. 8 national seed, but we feel like that status is on unstable ground and ripe for one of those ACC teams such as Florida State, Virginia or red-hot NC State to take over the No. 8 spot. Oregon State out of the Pac-12 is another team to watch as tourneys unfold the rest of the week. Let’s see how Wednesday plays out.
Stolen Bid Watch
- Fans of teams on the NCAA bubble had quite a scare for a while Tuesday afternoon as Rice held a 4-0 lead over top-seeded East Carolina at the American tourney entering the bottom of the eighth inning. However, the Pirates put together a 12-run eighth to take down the Owls. That's a league to keep an eye on throughout the week as anyone but ECU winning the automatic bid would be a stolen bid.
- Illinois and Nebraska were considered NCAA tournament locks entering the Big Ten Tournament, while Indiana, which beat Purdue on Tuesday, was a bubble out club in our latest projections on Monday. While nothing has changed regarding the Huskers and Illini, Ohio State blasting the Big Red now means that a potential bid-stealer -- the Buckeyes -- are now in the winner's bracket in Omaha. IU, which won its opener and is on the bubble, is also now in a better spot. There's a long way to go in this tournament, but keep an eye on this development with Bill Mosiello's club.
Bubble Watch
- Coastal Carolina was one of the last four teams in the field in our latest projections on Monday. The Chanticleers did nothing to hurt their chances on Tuesday, beating Georgia State 5-1 at the Sun Belt tournament behind strong pitching from Riley Eikhoff and clutch hitting from Dean Mihos. CCU’s RPI went up two spots to 33 with the win over the Panthers. Next up is a date with Southern Miss on Wednesday afternoon. A win here would be massive for Gary Gilmore’s club.
- We mentioned in the stolen bid watch that
Indiana won yet another game over Purdue. Well, with the win, the Hoosiers are up six spots in the RPI to 54. Again, the Hoosiers were just out of our projections on Monday, and the climb in RPI is certainly beneficial. The Hoosiers just need to keep winning in Omaha throughout the week to leave no doubt.
— In the Big 12 tournament, the two big winners from a bubble standpoint were
TCU and
UCF. The Horned Frogs took care of West Virginia with strong pitching and moved up to 37 (+3) in the RPI with an aggregate league record of 15-16, while the Knights beat Cincinnati and went up to 39 (+3) in the RPI as well. The Knights are now 15-15 in the league aggregate record. Both teams were in our latest tournament field on Monday. No changes as of now.
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Kansas State and
Cincinnati were the bubble losers from Tuesday’s action. Both need to avoid going 0-2 in the tourney, and both dropped decisions to Kansas and UCF, respectively. K-State is down three spots in the RPI to 44, while the Bearcats are down to 57 in the RPI, but still have an aggregate league record of 17-14, which is solid. I would not want to go 0-2 in this tournament.
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Louisville and
Georgia Tech are a pair of ACC bubble teams that took it on the chin Tuesday afternoon in Charlotte. Louisville dropped an 8-5 decision to Miami, and the Yellow Jackets lost yet another game (three out of the last four) to Florida State. U of L is down six spots in the RPI to 58 and has a league aggregate of 16-15. Again, not totally out of it, but will need to finish pool play strong to have a chance. As for the Jackets, they were not in our last four in on Monday (they were comfortably in), and are now at 50 (-4) in the RPI to go with a 15-16 league aggregate record. Finishing strong is imperative for the Jackets to leave little doubt.
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LSU is comfortably in the field for now after beating Georgia, 9-1, on Tuesday. With the win, the Tigers are now up to 14 overall wins in the SEC, and their RPI is up to 27, which is a three spot improvement. In addition to the win over UGa., I simply like the fact the Tigers have finished strong, winning four of their last five series to finish the regular season. The Tigers are in, so sleep easy, Baton Rouge. LSU now has its sights set on being a No. 2 seed in a Regional next weekend.
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Vanderbilt has at least moved itself ahead of Florida in the SEC pecking order after beating the Gaytors yet again in Hoover. That’s now three wins out of four games against the Gaytors for Tim Corbin’s Commodores. In addition to the win on Tuesday, Vandy is up to 23 (+4) in the RPI with 14 overall SEC wins. The Commodores are in the field barring a surprise, or a plethora of stolen bids. As for
Florida, whether the Gaytors get in field of 64 will be a controversial topic leading up and potentially on Selection Monday. The Gaytors are still sitting at 29 in the RPI after the loss to Vandy, but are just 28-27 overall with a 13-18 SEC aggregate record. Those are the negatives for the Gaytors’ resume. What isn’t negative is a No. 1 SOS, 13 wins over Quad 1 teams and a No. 22 Non-Conference SOS. There are plenty of reasons to put the Gaytors in, and some reasons to leave the Gaytors out of the field. Remember, UF athletic director Scott Stricklin was added to the Selection Committee a few weeks ago as a replacement. That could loom large as Selection Day nears. Either way, tense days are ahead for Sully and Co.
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South Carolina finished slow the final two weekends of the regular season against stiff competition, but it helped its case Tuesday afternoon with an impressive win over Alabama. The Gamecocks are now sitting at 19 in the RPI with 14 SEC wins. That should put Mark Kingston’s club comfortably in the field as of today, but we will see how Wednesday’s games play out. As for
Alabama, as with the Gamecocks, it has a solid RPI of 18, but also heads home with just 13 SEC wins. The Tides does have series wins over South Carolina, LSU, Tennessee and Arkansas. I think the Tide is still in at this point. Again, some stolen bids are going to need to occur for this case to become an issue.
— For now, we would still project all of those SEC bubble teams to be in the field, making it an 11-bid league. But again, stolen bids and other teams making runs in their respective conference tournaments could come at some point. Stay tuned.
