Big picture NIL thoughts after 3 seasons

[huskerj12]

Piecing together some thoughts from other threads because I think it's interesting to zoom out about this stuff sometimes:

NIL rules were instituted in June 2021, so we're now finishing up the 3rd college football season with the system in place. Do you think it has changed the sport or NU football for the better?

I have thought since the beginning that we weren't going to be in as good of a situation as people thought... For better or worse, the whole enterprise just goes against the way a ton of Nebraskans see themselves and the world.

The mythical "Nebraska Way" was more than just a walk-on strategy, it was a whole midwestern philosophy that people related to, which is that if you're humble and get good grades and work hard enough you can be just as great as the slick snake oil salesmen of the world. It doesn't really matter that NU football was never actually as pure and cheesy as all of that, it was still an ideal that gave the program a positive identity and made fans feel good. People rightfully wonder why our fans don't donate a bunch of their money to our NIL groups, but expecting those same fans who believed in a quaint old-school philosophy to turn on a dime and embrace the all out commercialization of the sport with lawless free agency and flashy bidding wars, it's just a hard switch to flip.

Players deserve money, there is no doubt, but to me this current system is just stupid and ruins a lot of the enjoyment of following the sport. The idea that it would level the playing field for programs like us was a fantasy, as it seems players are being funneled to the richest of the rich during high school recruiting AND THEN A SECOND TIME as players who are already playing on college teams. Seeing so many players ditch their team after a good season to go find the highest bidder, it’s just disheartening and kneecaps the fun of college football. There should have been about 5,000 better ideas for paying players than this.

I remember back in the '10s most people scoffed at that Northwestern dude (a QB I think?) who was advocating for players to become university employees or something...? But now it seems like that would've been a way better outcome. Whether that would've been the right final choice or not, it's just absurd that the powers-that-be never tried ANYTHING before throwing their hands up and saying "F it we're just gonna have a free for all!"

...I hope we can drop a bunch of dough this offseason to get a bunch of awesome recruits and transfers because this is the game now. Haha

 

[Tonkasker]

I think a lot of the initial momentum behind collectives is starting to fizzle. Coastal Carolina's just shuttered because they couldn't even cover their overhead - citing that their alumni base was too young to have the wealth required to really make an impact. You'll probably see collectives shift their focus toward the retail space or further corporatize.

Funny deal - Cockeye's collective hit us up for a massive NIL push with $1/$1 matching from their biggest donor. Hype through the roof - Rastetters were going to match up to a million in fan contributions. Our household doesn't donate but my wife's side is huge fans so they know some people involved.

As of this morning, 2 weeks later, they've raised a whopping $40k.

 

[Tsakoi]

I think a lot of the initial momentum behind collectives is starting to fizzle. Coastal Carolina's just shuttered because they couldn't even cover their overhead - citing that their alumni base was too young to have the wealth required to really make an impact. You'll probably see collectives shift their focus toward the retail space or further corporatize.

Funny deal - Cockeye's collective hit us up for a massive NIL push with $1/$1 matching from their biggest donor. Hype through the roof - Rastetters were going to match up to a million in fan contributions. Our household doesn't donate but my wife's side is huge fans so they know some people involved.

As of this morning, 2 weeks later, they've raised a whopping $40k.

If you think about it that makes a ton of sense for a regular everyday fan.

Fans already pay for tickets, merchandise, schedule weekends around games, travel to away games, pay for info on recruiting sites (ahemmm cough*), pay for cable access to the channels that broadcast the games...etc etc... and are also asked regularly for donations from the University in many different ways. Often times state tax money gets funneled to the schools in a variety of ways as well.

Then someone comes around and says that these fans need to dig deeper to pay for the players too?

I wouldn't donate to NIL unless my business or livelihood directly benefited from the football program. And for the vast majority of CFB fans....that ain't us.

P.S. Then that regular fan has to read annually about how much money the university is being paid by the TV conglomerate that broadcasts the games and the conference wide bowl payouts in the 10s of millions and wonder why they need any more of my money. Like a billionaire that needs a donation. Fuck that.

 

[Tonkasker]

If you think about it that makes a ton of sense for a regular everyday fan.

Fans already pay for tickets, merchandise, schedule weekends around games, travel to away games, pay for info on recruiting sites (ahemmm cough*), pay for cable access to the channels that broadcast the games...etc etc... and are also asked regularly for donations from the University in many different ways. Often times state tax money gets funneled to the schools in a variety of ways as well.

Then someone comes around and says that these fans need to dig deeper to pay for the players too?

I wouldn't donate to NIL unless my business or livelihood directly benefited from the football program. And for the vast majority of CFB fans....that ain't us.

One of my business partners is a big gopher fan and tried to throw a little NIL cash at the program, like $5k on behalf of one of his apartment buildings he was opening near campus. They pretty much told him, 'hey, here are some wrestlers we'll put you in touch with'

Most NIL deals that actually matter in the football space start at $25k. It's so highly concentrated at the top on both sides - there might be five guys on the average roster that command 33% of the NIL and there might be five companies that contribute that or more to the total coffer.

I expect some smoothing across rosters and programs once everything goes in-house and universities start sharing data. I also expect some smoothing on the donor side once businesses can backlog data and also develop real business models to get into the NIL/Retail space.

You are right though about the total capacity fans have for this stuff. Killer idea is an NIL subscription box that you sign up for around Christmas and in September from the collective every year. Get an autograph, some merch, and the collective facilitates all the legwork so they can pocket around $100 per subscription annually. Fans would be more eager to sign up than throwing their single dollar bill at a company that isn't transparent by design OR buy their favorite player's shirt and contribute to the lack of parity on the roster. Sell 5,000 and that's $500k in the coffer. Fans are already in the retail space, keep them there.

 

[DuckSker]

I think we overlooked how much has changed since Rhule was last in the college game. It’s completely different territory now. You kind of have to play the game or get left behind. He’s still learning

 

[Tsakoi]

One of my business partners is a big gopher fan and tried to throw a little NIL cash at the program, like $5k on behalf of one of his apartment buildings he was opening near campus. They pretty much told him, 'hey, here are some wrestlers we'll put you in touch with'

Most NIL deals that actually matter in the football space start at $25k. It's so highly concentrated at the top on both sides - there might be five guys on the average roster that command 33% of the NIL and there might be five companies that contribute that or more to the total coffer.

I expect some smoothing across rosters and programs once everything goes in-house and universities start sharing data. I also expect some smoothing on the donor side once business models can backlog data and also develop real business models to get into the NIL/Retail space.

You are right though about the total capacity fans have for this stuff. Killer idea is an NIL subscription box that you sign up for around Christmas and in September from the collective every year. Get an autograph, some merch, and the collective facilitates all the legwork so they can pocket around $100 per subscription annually. Fans would be more eager to sign up than throwing their single dollar bill at a company that isn't transparent by design OR buy their favorite player's shirt and contribute to the lack of parity on the roster. Sell 5,000 and that's $500k in the coffer. Fans are already in the retail space, keep them there.

Great post.

 

[Tonkasker]

I think we overlooked how much has changed since Rhule was last in the college game. It’s completely different territory now. You kind of have to play the game or get left behind. He’s still learning

Yeah I agree. Probably drinking from a fire hose if you consider how much time he had to prep for the window opening last year

Think as a whole the staff got caught flat footed when you look at their evaluations but I will give them a pass considering the scope of everything going on from his hiring to the end of december. Just not enough time and guys like Kemp, Borders, Sims, Sherman, and Collier were all good gets on paper when you consider they had less than three weeks to evaluate the roster, hire a staff, travel, hold together the current class, and fill out the roster in the portal

Think you'll see colorado improve their evaluation for the same reasons btw

 

[Poor_and_Stupid]

Having the 4th richest man in the world living in your state, and also having him be the only person from the state who doesn’t like football is a nice little side troll from The Simulation™.

 

[Fargo Husker]

NIL, in theory, is fantastic. With the money in college athletics now players should absolutely be getting a cut of that and be able to profit off their likeness.

The NCAA legalizing NIL and then unleashing it on the world with zero guardrails put in place was lunacy. It doomed it from the start and there is no way NIL as it is currently constituted can survive long-term.

The push to get NIL in-house within the university athletic departments needs to be the next step. Will there still be outside actors throwing money around under the table and swaying kids more to certain schools? Of course. That has always been an aspect of college recruiting. But getting some semblance of structure to the NIL world will, at the very least, help stabilize things.

 

[2010sarenevercomingback]

It's crazy how little NIL is actual name, image, or likeness marketing. I was naive enough to think there'd be tons of (obviously overpaid) commercials, jersey & autograph sales, appearances, sponsored social media posts, product placements, etc.

Instead, we get a tiny sprinkling of that - mostly from lower-tier sports, while the money is largely just lump sums behind closed doors from collectives.

I agree there should be all sorts of retail options for fans to make some kind of donation & receive something in return. @Pipeline Jerky King is a great example.

 

[huskerj12]

It's crazy how little NIL is actual name, image, or likeness marketing. I was naive enough to think there'd be tons of (obviously overpaid) commercials, jersey & autograph sales, appearances, sponsored social media posts, product placements, etc.

Instead, we get a tiny sprinkling of that - mostly from lower-tier sports, while the money is largely just lump sums behind closed doors from collectives.

Yeah exactly, the fact that it's all treated as the same thing is wild. It's willfully ignorant to pretend a player getting $2 million from some NIL conglomerate to sign with a team is the same thing as a player getting $500 from a local restaurant to promote their cheeseburgers or whatever.

 

[Pepe Silvia]

I hate what college football has become. between NIL and the portal it's such a free for all that we're seeing less and less parity. for fans of mid-tier schools this has to be excruciating watching their top players bail in the portal for a bag full of cash every year. the only saving grace for NU is that we've had so few players that anyone else wanted, so we haven't been hit as hard

 

[Tonkasker]

I hate what college football has become. between NIL and the portal it's such a free for all that we're seeing less and less parity. for fans of mid-tier schools this has to be excruciating watching their top players bail in the portal for a bag full of cash every year. the only saving grace for NU is that we've had so few players that anyone else wanted, so we haven't been hit as hard

I disagree about the parity across the league. I think NIL has generally helped teams level up their talent. G5 schools have had a ton of success pulling from FCS, especially in the south.

Where it's really hurt is depth, specifically at the low end of the P5. Teams like Syracuse, Wake, Vandy, etc all got their 2nd stringers ripped down the G5 or FCS where the kids could start. It's definitely felt across the entire FBS but not to the same degree. FBS dynasties used to be fewer and run uncontested way longer because you had guys developing under your starters for three years that you could pretty much set and forget. Now, Georgia's backups go to that next tier of Nebraska, Colorado, South Carolina, etc. It's the primary reason Clemson fell off, a big reason why Alabama got caught, and it's a big reason why Michigan caught ohio state. It's a dead horse at this point but a large part of Nebraska's success in the 90's was predicated on depth

Interesting thing about talent in general in college football is the higher the level, the wider the split in general talent. So on Nebraska for example, there's probably a wider variance between a stud and the average player than is the case at the G5, and even more so at the FCS level.