Baseball chase to Regionals

[PonyBoy]

@HuskerGarrett if a new thread isn't warrented then please move to season thread & delete this. I'd prefer to keep this though as a week by week reference point.

There is a slight change from a few weeks ago. And it's 1 game in our favor at the end.

Following midweek win over KSU
28-15 record
#20 overall RPI
#21 non-conf RPI
#25 SOS
#9 non-conf SOS

Q1 4-6
Q2 6-4
Q3 12-4
Q4 6-1 (loss to Cockeye's 1st rounder)

Here's our remaining 10 games...

(3) Minnesota is a safe Q3 for the remainder of the season. They have a chance to become a Q2 as they're right at the line (124 current RPI, need to be 61-120 for Q2 status since it's an away series for us).

2-1 v Gophers needed
3-0 v Gophers needed for us to host

(1) South Dakota State is Q4 and will stay there.

1-0 v Rabbits needed
1-0 v Rabbits needed for us to host

(3) Indiana is a safe Q3 for the remainder of the season. They have a minimal chance to become a Q2 as they need a lot of work to move. (67 current RPI, need to be 26-50 for Q2 since it's a home series for us).

2-1 v Hoosiers is needed
2-1 v Hoosiers needed for us to host

(3) Michigan State is currently a Q2 series. They could drop to Q3 but hopefully they remain Q2 (110 current RPI, need to stay 120 or less).

2-1 v Sparty is needed
3-0 v Sparty needed for us to host

* 7-3 finish & we're in the tournament.
* 9-1 finish & we're likely hosting heading in to the B1G tournament.

Based on all data available along with D1 Baseball & Baseball America's projections the last 3 weeks; a 35-18 regular season should have us safely in the Road To Omaha. I'm really leaning to 34-19 having us in as well but then we may have to win at least 1 in the B1G tournament then.

 

[Tyneb23]

Still not overly impressed with Bolt

 

[2010sarenevercomingback]

Do our attendance numbers boost our hosting odds?

 

[PonyBoy]

Do our attendance numbers boost our hosting odds?

No. Indiana State hosts with a 2,000 seat stadium. They bring in bleachers for capacity of 2,500. Maryland has hosted in their 2,500 capacity stadium.

Now, if us & the Sycamores, or someone else for this discussion, have resumes that are close to identical then it will likely come in to play.

The question is, has our Atheltic Department sent in the application required to host a Regional?

 

[Tyneb23]

No. Indiana State hosts with a 2,000 seat stadium. They bring in bleachers for capacity of 2,500. Maryland has hosted in their 2,500 capacity stadium.

Now, if us & the Sycamores, or someone else for this discussion, have resumes that are close to identical then it will likely come in to play.

The question is, has our Atheltic Department sent in the application required to host a Regional?

Wasn't there a school that didn't and lost a hosting bid? Couple years ago?

 

[Stan Raymond]

No. Indiana State hosts with a 2,000 seat stadium. They bring in bleachers for capacity of 2,500. Maryland has hosted in their 2,500 capacity stadium.

Now, if us & the Sycamores, or someone else for this discussion, have resumes that are close to identical then it will likely come in to play.

The question is, has our Atheltic Department sent in the application required to host a Regional?

I don't think we have a chance in hell in hosting, but I also think we are very safely in.

10-0 and we still won't host. 5-5 and we're still safely in.

 

[PonyBoy]

Wasn't there a school that didn't and lost a hosting bid? Couple years ago?

Ya, can't remember who though. Last year, Indiana State didn't host Super Regionals because they had graduation the same weekend. Their AD said they didn't have the staff to support hosting. 😂 Someone else lost hosting due to lack of hotel availability/proximity while an SEC or ACC team got to host and put teams up in dorms (or something like that). Family/friends were driving 90 minutes one way to watch games.

It was rumored Moos didn't apply in 2021, but he publicly claimed he did. Bids had to be in a week or two earlier because of covid protocols. One of the college rags told me he was advised by his NCAA sources Nebraska didn't submit a bid.

I don't think we have a chance in hell in hosting, but I also think we are very safely in.

10-0 and we still won't host. 5-5 and we're still safely in.

Kendall Rogers disagrees.

But the Huskers are further back in the RPI at No. 24, so we like DBU's chances better. Both teams simply need to play great down the stretch to displace some of the other host candidates above them in the pecking order right now.

His response was prior to our win over Kansas State. Our RPI is 20, and all other metrics are currently better than Dallas Baptist.

9-1 & we're a legit candidate. 8-2 & we're still a bubble.

Here's what Kendall said after our win over Kansas State
The Huskers remain in the mix for a regional host spot, but were not in the Top 16 in the latest D1Baseball Postseason Projections, released earlier this week. The Huskers are up five spots in the RPI to 20 after splitting a pair of midweek games. Though heavily in the mix for a host spot, there’s not a lot of wiggle room down the stretch with series remaining against teams such as Minnesota (124), Indiana (67) and Michigan State (110).

 

[Frogsker30]

Ya, can't remember who though. Last year, Indiana State didn't host Super Regionals because they had graduation the same weekend. Their AD said they didn't have the staff to support hosting. 😂 Someone else lost hosting due to lack of hotel availability/proximity while an SEC or ACC team got to host and put teams up in dorms (or something like that). Family/friends were driving 90 minutes one way to watch games.

It was rumored Moos didn't apply in 2021, but he publicly claimed he did. Bids had to be in a week or two earlier because of covid protocols. One of the college rags told me he was advised by his NCAA sources Nebraska didn't submit a bid.



Kendall Rogers disagrees.

But the Huskers are further back in the RPI at No. 24, so we like DBU's chances better. Both teams simply need to play great down the stretch to displace some of the other host candidates above them in the pecking order right now.

His response was prior to our win over Kansas State. Our RPI is 20, and all other metrics are currently better than Dallas Baptist.

9-1 & we're a legit candidate. 8-2 & we're still a bubble.

Here's what Kendall said after our win over Kansas State
The Huskers remain in the mix for a regional host spot, but were not in the Top 16 in the latest D1Baseball Postseason Projections, released earlier this week. The Huskers are up five spots in the RPI to 20 after splitting a pair of midweek games. Though heavily in the mix for a host spot, there’s not a lot of wiggle room down the stretch with series remaining against teams such as Minnesota (124), Indiana (67) and Michigan State (110).

Iirc it was special Olympics that caused Indiana state not to host

 

[Stan Raymond]

Ya, can't remember who though. Last year, Indiana State didn't host Super Regionals because they had graduation the same weekend. Their AD said they didn't have the staff to support hosting. 😂 Someone else lost hosting due to lack of hotel availability/proximity while an SEC or ACC team got to host and put teams up in dorms (or something like that). Family/friends were driving 90 minutes one way to watch games.

It was rumored Moos didn't apply in 2021, but he publicly claimed he did. Bids had to be in a week or two earlier because of covid protocols. One of the college rags told me he was advised by his NCAA sources Nebraska didn't submit a bid.



Kendall Rogers disagrees.

But the Huskers are further back in the RPI at No. 24, so we like DBU's chances better. Both teams simply need to play great down the stretch to displace some of the other host candidates above them in the pecking order right now.

His response was prior to our win over Kansas State. Our RPI is 20, and all other metrics are currently better than Dallas Baptist.

9-1 & we're a legit candidate. 8-2 & we're still a bubble.

Here's what Kendall said after our win over Kansas State
The Huskers remain in the mix for a regional host spot, but were not in the Top 16 in the latest D1Baseball Postseason Projections, released earlier this week. The Huskers are up five spots in the RPI to 20 after splitting a pair of midweek games. Though heavily in the mix for a host spot, there’s not a lot of wiggle room down the stretch with series remaining against teams such as Minnesota (124), Indiana (67) and Michigan State (110).

I don't always agree with Kendall Rogers. Just don't see us hosting even if we go 10-0 to close the season out.

We played the RPI game well this season, that's why we are practically a lock to get in right now, but we are honestly a ways back from being one of the top 16 teams in the country. Our remaining schedule doesn't give us the ability to move up much.

 

[Goskers07]

I can't help but think we are too inconsistent to be a true threat to make Omaha, but I think we are capable of earning a host slot. That's a pretty easy finish all things considered. Should be 10 wins if the team takes care of business. Should being the key term.

Regardless, the season is gonna be a good one to build on, so enjoy what's left of it.

 

[ShortSideOption]

A #2 seed is a really good accomplishment for this team. With what has been laid out in the OP, that seems more than doable. A 3 seed wouldn’t disappoint me, as long as we make the field.

I think hosting is out of the question unless our pitching performance against Kstate helps change things up for the weekends. But if he’s going to pitch like that maybe we keep rolling with him in midweeks to not lose ground there?

 

[PonyBoy]

I don't always agree with Kendall Rogers. Just don't see us hosting even if we go 10-0 to close the season out.

We played the RPI game well this season, that's why we are practically a lock to get in right now, but we are honestly a ways back from being one of the top 16 teams in the country. Our remaining schedule doesn't give us the ability to move up much.

He's pretty spot on with hosts. If you're in his top 20 of possible hosts, there's a really good chance you're hosting.

How did we play the RPI game well? Our first 4 weekends are no different than previous seasons. The difference is with those games, our opponents actually performed at their expectations - or just a hair worse (GCU) or better (Charleston, Pickle Smoochers, South Alabama). Compare that to last year as there were too many teams that underperformed their expectations (San Diego, South Alabama, Pickle Smoochers - those 3 total 10 games, none of them met expectations or came within a hair).

Weekday games? Sure, but it's a 4-game difference which isn't much when we have a 1-3 record in those 4 games. It's like last year, flip 4 weekday losses (all shitty opponents; Omaha x2, Dakota States x2) & we're in the tournament.

Dallas Baptist has all Q4 games remaining. UCSB (projected host), same thing - horrible remaining schedule. Same with Indiana State (projected host). But somehow, their metrics gives them the ability to hold on, move up and ours doesn't? That's crazy talk. A 9-1 finish will have Nebraska as a legit host.

Let's get game 1 tonight first...

 

[PonyBoy]

A #2 seed is a really good accomplishment for this team. With what has been laid out in the OP, that seems more than doable. A 3 seed wouldn’t disappoint me, as long as we make the field.

I think hosting is out of the question unless our pitching performance against Kstate helps change things up for the weekends. But if he’s going to pitch like that maybe we keep rolling with him in midweeks to not lose ground there?

There's 1 midweek left, next week v South Dakota State.

Our last series against Michigan State is a Thur-Fri-Sat series.

The B1G tournament begins on a Tuesday.

 

[ShortSideOption]

There's 1 midweek left, next week v South Dakota State.

Our last series against Michigan State is a Thur-Fri-Sat series.

The B1G tournament begins on a Tuesday.

Do you think they try to insert him for the weekends then or is he our guy for that last midweek and then if we go deep into B1G?

 

[PonyBoy]

Do you think they try to insert him for the weekends then or is he our guy for that last midweek and then if we go deep into B1G?

He won't start this weekend in Minneapolis, that's for certain. My assumption is he starts against South Dakota State next Tuesday. How long he pitches is the question so let's see where we're at after the Minnesota series as it should play a hand in what the plan may be.

 

[Stan Raymond]

He's pretty spot on with hosts. If you're in his top 20 of possible hosts, there's a really good chance you're hosting.

How did we play the RPI game well? Our first 4 weekends are no different than previous seasons. The difference is with those games, our opponents actually performed at their expectations - or just a hair worse (GCU) or better (Charleston, Pickle Smoochers, South Alabama). Compare that to last year as there were too many teams that underperformed their expectations (San Diego, South Alabama, Pickle Smoochers - those 3 total 10 games, none of them met expectations or came within a hair).

Weekday games? Sure, but it's a 4-game difference which isn't much when we have a 1-3 record in those 4 games. It's like last year, flip 4 weekday losses (all shitty opponents; Omaha x2, Dakota States x2) & we're in the tournament.

Dallas Baptist has all Q4 games remaining. UCSB (projected host), same thing - horrible remaining schedule. Same with Indiana State (projected host). But somehow, their metrics gives them the ability to hold on, move up and ours doesn't? That's crazy talk. A 9-1 finish will have Nebraska as a legit host.

Let's get game 1 tonight first...

We played the RPI game well by our opponents winning instead of crapping the bed like they did last year. It was a bit of luck, but it worked this year so I'll give them credit, it didn't work well last season and I harped on it. Our non conference scheduling take a bit of luck as the teams we play need to perform well for them to help us much. We don't schedule a lot of power teams that can absorb some losses and still hold a decent ranking.

You are right Dallas Baptist, UCSB, Indiana State also are finishing with poor schedules and won't have an ability to move up similar to us, but they are ahead of us and not very likely to blow it either with those schedules. I just don't see us going 10-0 and enough teams ahead of us tanking for us hosting to be a realistic outcome.

 

[BIG TONE SOPRANO]

Won’t make it

 

[Kaladin]

Won’t make it

To the CWS? Probably right

We make tourney though and make run for super regionals

 

[BIG TONE SOPRANO]

To the CWS? Probably right

We make tourney though and make run for super regionals

Anything of substance.

 

[PonyBoy]

You are right Dallas Baptist, UCSB, Indiana State also are finishing with poor schedules and won't have an ability to move up similar to us, but they are ahead of us and not very likely to blow it either with those schedules. I just don't see us going 10-0 and enough teams ahead of us tanking for us hosting to be a realistic outcome.

I understand that. The part you're not though is, their metrics are going to drop as all of their remaining games are Q4. That's a significant advantage to us. All 4 teams go 9-1, or even 8-2, and now it's a legit discussion that Nebraska is in the hosting race and no longer on the outside looking in.

Nebraska has better metrics than all 3 teams except in the overall RPI which is 11 (ISU), 16 (DBU), 17 (UCSB) & 20 (NU). All in our favor; non-conf RPI, overall SOS & non-con SOS except for ISU as their non-conf RPI is 7 v our 9.

This is regular season only. I haven't even brought up conference tournament opportunities, which we'll have more of.

Let's take this a game at a time.