2024 college football graphs/graphics

[Kaladin]

 

[Kaladin]

@Dawgsauce Georgia Bulldog football team seems to be the consensus #1

We seem to be a too 40 squad at least

 

[Juro]

Cockeye always gets easy schedules so they’re always favored.

 

[Kaladin]

 

[Mr.Bojangles]

Georgia being able to lose 3 and still make it seems ridiculous.

 

[Mr.Bojangles]

Also Cockeye getting a mulligan is also dumb considering their schedule is shit year in and year out.

 

[Kaladin]

Last week, we created a consensus preseason power rating system out of many preseason systems out there. Now that we have those done, we ought to use them! One of the ways we can do that is by simulating the entire season one thousand times in order to create some win expectations for each CFB team. Considering we have 134 FBS teams and 10ish conferences (Plus the Independents), its probably best if we split this up between the Power 4 conferences and the Group of 5 (Plus the Pac-2 and the Independents). First up, the Power 4!c

First order of business, we have to turn our power ratings (which represent how many points a team is better than an average FBS opponent) into a percent chance to win in order to simulate our matchups. We can create “point spreads” by taking a teams power rating and subtracting it from their opponents power rating (FCS teams were given a point rating of -28, which would be the lowest among all FBS teams). We will also give each home team an extra 2.5 points to simulate home field advantage. Once we have that, we can look at historical win percentages based on how many points a team was favored over its opponent before the game.

In games with a spread of 0 (meaning both teams are about equal), teams are given a 50% chance to win the game. The more a team is favored by, the better percent chance they have of winning the game (I know, not exactly mind blowing stuff here). Once you get past 19.5 points, you’re basically at a 99.9% chance to win.

Now that we have our percents, we can simulate each game in the season, 1000 times. In each game, a team is assigned either a 1 for a win or a 0 for a loss. The teams percent chance to win the game represents its weighted odds to draw that 1. Once all the games are done, we can sum up their wins to get a win total for that season. We will also look at a teams win range based on all of the 1000 simulations, as well as how often they end up with the most wins in their respective conferences. Lets do it!

Oregon and Ohio State will play each other October 12th in Oregon for what will be one of the most anticipated games of the season. Both teams hit double digit wins in the vast majority of the simulations, and anything less than a playoff appearance would be a major failure. Penn State and Michigan make up our next teams up that should threaten for a playoff spot before we hit an average win gap between our next teams. Big Ten teams the sims were higher on than the market: Oregon (10.9 sim wins vs. 10.4 DK wins) and Penn State (10.6 sim wins vs. 10.1 DK wins). Teams lower in the sims than the market: Maryland (6.6 sim wins vs. 6.9 DK wins) and Washington (6.7 sim wins vs. 7 DK Wins).