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Before the season I identified key stats I thought would be integral to a successful season. The benchmarks were listed as “wishful thinking” I.e., top 40 or better nationally and “realistic goals” i.e., progress based on 2022 results, but still not necessarily “good”.
They were listed in order of importance.
Lots of good in there, but I want to focus on the two catastrophic failures: rz offense and turnover margin.
I see what Rhule means when he says they’re close, and he’s right, but abysmal performance in two stats undid all the good everywhere else.
Good news, now we have benchmarks for 2024. And more wins can come by improving from “worst in the nation” to simply “bad”.
We had 31 giveaways this year. 2.6/game. Dead last in the country. If that number drops to 18 that’s a huge improvement, even though 1.5 giveaways/game would still only be 80th nationally.
Similarly, we improve the offense a ton if we improve a little bit in the red zone.
NU averaged 2.4 red zone attempts per game and 4pts/rz att. Both 128th in the country. 9.7 rz pts/game might end up being dead last in the country. They were bad at getting in position to score, and when they did, they absolutely sucked at scoring. Whipple’s 2022 offense may have been bad at getting to the RZ (2.7 atts/game), but he was elite when he did get there (5.47pts/rz att).
Progress in 2024 may mean going from 128th in red zone offense to 90th in red zone offense. That would be 3.1 rz att/game and 4.6pts/rz att. 14.25 rz pts/game, or 4.5 pts better per game.
Offense improves from 18.0ppg to 22.5ppg. You probably win 2 more games.
What if we perform like the 40th ranked rz offense? 4rz atts/game and 5.25 pts/rz att. 21 rz pts/game
Offense improves from 18.0ppg to 29.3ppg. You probably win 4 more games.
Imagine how different this season would’ve been if we averaged 1.5 giveaways/game rather than 2.6 and 15 rz pts/game rather than 10? Both are still bad numbers nationally, but they aren’t fatal.
Nebraska is indeed very close, but identifying the problem is a lot easier than fixing it. Satterfield needs to earn his $1.4M and Rhule needs to earn his $12M, and turnovers and red zone scoring is where they need to start.
They were listed in order of importance.
| Category | Wishful Thinking | Realistic Goal | 2023 Season |
| Turnover Margin | +0.5/game | +0.25/game | -1.42/game LOL |
| Avg. Starting Field Position | 31 YL | 28 YL | 28.7 yard line |
| Off PPG | 32 ppg | 27 ppg | 18.0 ppg |
| Def PPG | 20 ppg | 24 ppg | 18.3 ppg |
| 3rd Down Offense | 45% | 41% | 37.91% |
| 3rd Down Defense | 35% | 38% | 37.22% |
| Opponents Yard per Rush | 3.5 ypc | 3.99 ypc | 2.97 ypc |
| Pts per RZ attempt - offense | 5.5 pts/rz att | 5.25 pts/rz att | 4.0 pts/rz att LOL |
| Pts per RZ attempt - defense | 4.25 pts/rz att | 4.6 pts/ rz att | 4.13 pts/rz att |
Lots of good in there, but I want to focus on the two catastrophic failures: rz offense and turnover margin.
I see what Rhule means when he says they’re close, and he’s right, but abysmal performance in two stats undid all the good everywhere else.
Good news, now we have benchmarks for 2024. And more wins can come by improving from “worst in the nation” to simply “bad”.
We had 31 giveaways this year. 2.6/game. Dead last in the country. If that number drops to 18 that’s a huge improvement, even though 1.5 giveaways/game would still only be 80th nationally.
Similarly, we improve the offense a ton if we improve a little bit in the red zone.
NU averaged 2.4 red zone attempts per game and 4pts/rz att. Both 128th in the country. 9.7 rz pts/game might end up being dead last in the country. They were bad at getting in position to score, and when they did, they absolutely sucked at scoring. Whipple’s 2022 offense may have been bad at getting to the RZ (2.7 atts/game), but he was elite when he did get there (5.47pts/rz att).
Progress in 2024 may mean going from 128th in red zone offense to 90th in red zone offense. That would be 3.1 rz att/game and 4.6pts/rz att. 14.25 rz pts/game, or 4.5 pts better per game.
Offense improves from 18.0ppg to 22.5ppg. You probably win 2 more games.
What if we perform like the 40th ranked rz offense? 4rz atts/game and 5.25 pts/rz att. 21 rz pts/game
Offense improves from 18.0ppg to 29.3ppg. You probably win 4 more games.
Imagine how different this season would’ve been if we averaged 1.5 giveaways/game rather than 2.6 and 15 rz pts/game rather than 10? Both are still bad numbers nationally, but they aren’t fatal.
Nebraska is indeed very close, but identifying the problem is a lot easier than fixing it. Satterfield needs to earn his $1.4M and Rhule needs to earn his $12M, and turnovers and red zone scoring is where they need to start.
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